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(traffic whooshing)

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(upbeat cymbals music)

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("Good Times Roll")

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Psychologically, driving is an extraordinarily

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satisfying activity for those who choose to invest in it.

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("Good Times Roll")

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It taps into freedom and autonomy.

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These are really fundamental human desires.

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I wanna go somewhere and I wanna control

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that process myself.

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Now we're at the dawn of driverless cars,

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and we're about to redefine that dramatically.

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And as we give over control of our mobility

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in exchange for convenience,

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I worry we may be giving over more than we realize.

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There's a lot to be concerned about,

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and a lot to be excited about,

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and you need to know what's coming.

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(upbeat music)

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(light switches clicking)

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For many people, the car is the most aesthetically

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and technologically sophisticated object they will ever own.

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I don't have a Rembrandt on my wall.

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The most beautiful thing I own is a 2003 BMW M5.

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You know, there's no question,

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{\an8}that's my piece of art, right, that is.

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{\an8}And I'll never, I'll probably never have anything

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{\an8}as beautiful as that car.

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My first really vivid car memory

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{\an8}was when my dad got a Corvette. (laughing)

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{\an8}His midlife crisis, maybe,

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{\an8}but my kind of automotive awakening.

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(upbeat music)

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It was just like pure animal sex, you know, it was amazing.

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{\an8}Everyone develops a connection to their automobile.

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And there's something about the feel of the vehicle,

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the emotion, that has an influence on them.

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They pick a vehicle that just

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kind of fits their personality.

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Cars really represent the symbol of mobility,

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and it's about enabling people to move about

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{\an8}and get to where they need to go

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{\an8}when they want to on their own terms.

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The car is not just transportation

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from point A to point B.

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The car really is the ultimate freedom machine.

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(engines roaring)

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In a world without cars that you as a driver drive,

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{\an8}I think what we'd miss most is the pleasure

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{\an8}and the satisfaction of being good at something,

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whether it be driving to work

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or driving out on the racetrack.

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And I think some of the things you're doing

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become unconscious, you just do them,

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and the car becomes an extension of your body.

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{\an8}I think it's great to love your car.

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{\an8}And I think it's awesome to love driving.

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{\an8}And I actually enjoy driving a small fraction of the time.

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{\an8}I have a convertible, and I get out onto 280 over here,

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and in the spring with the roof down

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and good music playing, it's awesome.

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And then I get to San Francisco and it's not.

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(slow electronic music)

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As human beings we didn't evolve to spend

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an hour and a half every day sitting in a metal box.

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{\an8}And so I think the commute to work is like a prime example

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{\an8}of where an automated driving system

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will be something that's very attractive.

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This is a technology to give people back time.

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And I think, to be honest,

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our sense of the value of time has changed a lot recently.

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Technologies like the cell phone

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have made it so that we're very impatient now.

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On the other side, those who predict

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that soon it will be illegal to drive your own car,

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I don't think that society's going to put up with that.

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To me, this is not about taking driving away.

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Even the most ardent car fanatic does not enjoy commuting.

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Let's take that part that sucks, and let's make it better.

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We've actually lived with cars

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that are highly automated for decades.

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{\an8}Every year we see new features introduced

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{\an8}that have more self-driving capabilities.

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We're being promised that we can trust robots

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to keep us safer than human drivers.

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The hypothesis is there, and now it's up to us as a society

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to be able to prove it.

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As we start moving into a world of autonomous vehicles,

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{\an8}if you're just a plain old driver

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{\an8}that's trying to figure out what's coming,

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{\an8}it's hard to figure that out.

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(dramatic music)

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So what does the future hold

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for this soon-to-be booming business?

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{\an8}You have sort of three different categories

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{\an8}of players here, you have the car manufacturers,

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{\an8}who are moving from drivered cars to driverless cars.

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You have a tech company, Google, that's moving

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into the car manufacturing business for the first time,

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and then you have Uber, and their advantage might be,

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{\an8}all right, isn't all you want, the ability to access

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{\an8}the driving itself, with the push of a button?

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It is pretty crazy, the investment, the energy,

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the hype around it has gone through the roof.

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This technology is self-driving towards us,

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whether we like it or not.

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I've had six billionaires on this show,

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and three of them are working on self-driving cars.

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It's not gonna happen tomorrow, but it will happen.

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It'll be a slow process.
So you can send it

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to pick up your kids, and you could stay home and--

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Well imagine if you're disabled,

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if you're drunk, or if you're blind.

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I love this!

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{\an8}If we can reduce the human error,

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we can actually increase safety on our roads.

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We can make the world safer now,

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{\an8}and we should pursue this immediately

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{\an8}and not make a cynical decision that says,

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{\an8}well let's wait for future generations.

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{\an8}They'll figure it all out.

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I think we'd be missing an opportunity.

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Finally, a high-tech alternative to jamming a brick

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on the gas pedal and jumping in the back seat.

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(audience laughing)

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Oh, dear Jesus. I could never! (screams)

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This has gone from no one thought that it

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was going to happen, to wow, it's gonna happen tomorrow.

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Back when we started in 2009,

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this is what our system looked like.

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Once we started driving on city streets,

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the problem becomes a whole new level of difficulty.

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How soon can we bring it out?

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Well, these are my two boys.

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My oldest son is 11, and that means in 4 1/2 years,

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he's gonna be able to get his driver's license.

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My team and I are committed to making sure

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that doesn't happen.

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(audience laughing)
(audience applauding)

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One of the distressing things about transitioning

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from human-driven to computer-driven cars is,

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how in control will you be?

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I think that's an unanswered question

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and it's a scary question.

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{\an8}I think people are reluctant to give up that control.

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I don't want the car taking over for me.

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Well in a sense, your car does take over for you

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if you have antilock brakes, and stability control,

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and a bunch of other things, but no matter what,

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there will always be nostalgists.

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They wanna live in a log cabin and drive a '74 Camaro.

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(laughs)

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{\an8}(car engine revving)

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(rock music)

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(tires squealing)

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All right, guys, welcome.

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This is the August meeting, Drag'n Knights.

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The Drag'n Knights are a cohesive unit of car collectors.

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The theory of Drag'n Knights is a pre-smog,

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American-powered vehicles, and it doesn't necessarily

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have to be a very beautiful car.

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This doesn't have a rear window. (laughs)

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You get satisfaction out of building something yourself,

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you know what I mean?

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And I think those are the true car guys,

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and especially this club, everybody builds their own cars.

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And we all get together and we get to talk about that.

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Here's a question.

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{\an8}Are you a safer driver in an autonomous car,

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{\an8}or a car that has all those features,

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{\an8}or in a car like this?

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Now, I say you're safer in a car like this.

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Because you're aware when you're driving that thing,

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that that thing can fly apart at any minute.

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It's a huge responsibility, driving these cars.

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(rock music)

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I tell you what, dude, you're gonna get whacked

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by this frickin' thing.

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I've heard that before.
<v ->All right.

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(tires squealing)

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(engines revving)

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The bond between one and the car is unbreakable.

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In a self-driving car, you always have like a computer.

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It takes the personality out of the car,

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and takes the bond between

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man and machine out of the picture.

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(engines revving)

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Yeah, come on, that was freaking awesome.

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(men cheering)

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Let's see the autonomous car do that.

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(gentle music)

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Engaging full autonomous mode

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in three, two, one, go.

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(car engine revving)

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(classical waltz music)

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I remember when this was science fiction,

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and how cool it was gonna be

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when we could actually see this coming.

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I don't think in my lifetime I even had a small inkling

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that we'd get beyond a neat science fiction episode,

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and here we are.

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(classical waltz music)

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The idea of the driverless car

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is a long, long gestating dream.

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(classical waltz music)

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Okay, um...

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Let me back up a little bit.

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(whimsical music)

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Henry Ford comes along at the beginning of the 20th century,

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and he put everybody on wheels, he enriched America,

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and he created in many, many ways,

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the modern mobile society.

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And what happened here really became the manufacturing model

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for the rest of America.

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Detroit was the 20th-century boom town.

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(classic rock music)

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As much as Silicon Valley is a 21st-century boom town,

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I think that's how people have to think about Detroit

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in the 20th century.

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It was this hugely positive, expressive age

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where people thought anything was possible.

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The music was totally upbeat,

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the cars were totally extravagant.

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Homes were getting larger.

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People were moving out to the suburbs.

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And a lot of it was fueled by all the wealth in the city.

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The great thing about the car

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is that it was a source of pleasure for everyone.

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It was one of the most democratic pieces of technology

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the world's ever come up with.

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Move to electronic control strip in center lane.

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Detroit also invented the future.

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The concept car then allowed people to dream.

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You're now under automatic control.

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Hands off steering.

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We've always wrapped ourselves

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around technology in an automobile.

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{\an8}The building blocks of a fully autonomous vehicle

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{\an8}have been introduced over the last couple of decades,

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and made us more comfortable with the idea

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of technology improving the driving experience.

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We see it in pop culture, we see it in novels,

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we see it in television.

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{\an8}That sort of Utopian ideal of a technology

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{\an8}that here's to save us really is at the roots

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{\an8}of how we came to understand an autonomous vehicle.

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{\an8}(whistling)
Where am I?

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{\an8}You're in a Johnny cab.

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Whether it's a pod in "The Jetsons"

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{\an8}or a robot driving us around,

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{\an8}there's really been a bit of romance to it.

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The idea of a driverless vehicle

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is actually centuries-old.

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Leonardo da Vinci drew plans for a self-propelled cart

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in the 15th century.

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There were full-size, remote-controlled cars by the 1920s,

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and later experiments with cars that could follow

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electric signals buried in the road,

259
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like an invisible track.

260
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But it wasn't until the late 20th century

261
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that self-driving cars became a reality

262
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and not just a sci-fi fantasy.

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{\an8}You know, for a collection of microprocessors,

264
00:12:55,610 --> 00:12:56,750
{\an8}you're awfully touchy.

265
00:12:56,750 --> 00:12:58,450
{\an8}It's just that my circuits function better

266
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{\an8}when we operate in a reality mode.

267
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KITT?
<v ->Yes, Michael?

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Just keep driving.

269
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(upbeat music)

270
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(lava sputtering)

271
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Around 450 million years ago,

272
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an extraordinary event happened,

273
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and it was called the Cambrian explosion.

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It was a time where some particularly primitive

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types of life explosively diversified

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into all the major groups that we have on Earth right now.

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It's when evolution came up with really good eyes,

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and so suddenly the pace of evolution

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just drastically sped up.

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The pace of technological improvement

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is drastically increasing right now

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because of this same kind of explosion,

283
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really because for the first time now,

284
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computers have learned how to see.

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Right now, at this very moment,

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as you watch these light rays striking the magnified eye,

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similar tiny beams of light are entering your own eyes.

288
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When you think about how can a car see,

289
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{\an8}at the end of the day, the car sees in a sense

290
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{\an8}very much like we humans do.

291
00:14:10,950 --> 00:14:13,590
So we have eyes, right, light comes in.

292
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It touches a sensor in our brain, where we interpret

293
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that light to be able to recognize objects,

294
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and then put those objects together in a scene

295
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in our brain to have a visual, spatial

296
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kind of understanding of where I am.

297
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In a sense, that's what the camera does as well.

298
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The camera has lenses.

299
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Now we have the advantage that we only have two eyes, right,

300
00:14:32,350 --> 00:14:36,610
but in many of these cars, we can have 6, 8, 12 cameras.

301
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We also have LiDARs, which are kind of laser scanners

302
00:14:39,420 --> 00:14:41,380
that shoot out laser beams to different objects.

303
00:14:41,380 --> 00:14:45,460
We also have radars, so if any one sensor can't see,

304
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temporarily, we can leverage the other sensors.

305
00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:50,280
And then so that's really where

306
00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,370
the way these cars sense the environment is more robust

307
00:14:53,370 --> 00:14:55,563
and better than the way we humans can.

308
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{\an8}Some of the early signals of economies

309
00:14:58,630 --> 00:15:00,620
{\an8}started with knowing that we could do

310
00:15:00,620 --> 00:15:03,350
{\an8}computer vision and integrate that into a vehicle.

311
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{\an8}Some of the early work was done in Japan.

312
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{\an8}Similarly, for actually controlling the vehicle

313
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with software, some of that early work was done in Germany.

314
00:15:15,231 --> 00:15:17,814
{\an8}(upbeat music)

315
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Vision has been very central in developing intelligence,

316
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{\an8}and I thought we could teach technical objects

317
00:15:28,750 --> 00:15:32,313
{\an8}to have a sense of vision, and do their own decisions.

318
00:15:33,430 --> 00:15:36,560
{\an8}Dr. Dickmanns was viewed as being a crazy guy.

319
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:40,840
{\an8}You know, as totally nuts. Totally weird.

320
00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:45,833
People thought I'm crazy, because this looked impossible.

321
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My first Ph.D. work with Dr. Dickmanns

322
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was actually balancing a black rod on an electro-cart.

323
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It's like, you know, balancing a pole.

324
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And the task was with the camera looking at this rod

325
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,770
and the cart, to move the cart such

326
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that the rod was stabilized.

327
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Well, this was the big breakthrough.

328
00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:10,700
There were definitely people before Dickmanns

329
00:16:10,700 --> 00:16:14,891
{\an8}who had carts that moved, like there was a Stanford cart,

330
00:16:14,891 --> 00:16:18,170
{\an8}you know, that took an image, and then it calculated

331
00:16:18,170 --> 00:16:20,510
{\an8}for 15 minutes, and then drove a meter,

332
00:16:20,510 --> 00:16:22,020
{\an8}and then it took another image.

333
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But he was the first one to do it in real time.

334
00:16:25,487 --> 00:16:29,460
(car engines roaring)

335
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One morning it came to me

336
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that the Autobahn's environment is very simple.

337
00:16:34,220 --> 00:16:36,710
It's very easy for analysis.

338
00:16:36,710 --> 00:16:39,570
You have a very well-kept surface.

339
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You have white lines, and there is no cross-traffic.

340
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,740
So I made the decision to take this

341
00:16:46,740 --> 00:16:50,763
as the first real-world application of computer vision.

342
00:16:54,196 --> 00:16:56,830
So wouldn't it be nice on those long motorway trips

343
00:16:56,830 --> 00:16:59,810
to just sit back, relax,

344
00:16:59,810 --> 00:17:01,600
and take your hands off the wheel?

345
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,230
Well, maybe one day you'll be able to,

346
00:17:03,230 --> 00:17:05,580
because this purely experimental van

347
00:17:05,580 --> 00:17:08,920
is driving along now at about 35 kilometers an hour,

348
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:13,030
totally automatically, using only this ordinary camera

349
00:17:13,030 --> 00:17:14,230
to see where it's going.

350
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We equipped a huge bus with a system

351
00:17:18,260 --> 00:17:20,840
and we were able not only to drive,

352
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,660
but also to stop in front of a static obstacle

353
00:17:24,660 --> 00:17:27,320
from a speed of 40 kilometers per hour,

354
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,563
fully autonomously, no intervention by a human.

355
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,633
What his first car did, it was able to follow a road.

356
00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,720
Of course, interaction with other moving vehicles,

357
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,740
with other people, with animals, all that was not possible.

358
00:17:42,740 --> 00:17:46,570
But when he showed the first videos of this working,

359
00:17:46,570 --> 00:17:50,030
people started realizing, boy, there's something to it.

360
00:17:50,030 --> 00:17:51,460
We didn't know what was going on in the world.

361
00:17:51,460 --> 00:17:53,713
We thought we were the first to do it.

362
00:17:53,713 --> 00:17:56,880
We knew about one project which had run

363
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,393
in the late '70s in Japan.

364
00:18:00,859 --> 00:18:04,109
{\an8}(speaking in Japanese)

365
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,380
{\an8}In the United States, there was a similar project,

366
00:18:35,380 --> 00:18:37,477
the Autonomous Land Vehicle, ALV,

367
00:18:37,477 --> 00:18:40,420
and they had one big vehicle, steered like a tank,

368
00:18:40,420 --> 00:18:43,970
and the European countries came to the decision

369
00:18:43,970 --> 00:18:47,610
that maybe America and Japan is moving ahead,

370
00:18:47,610 --> 00:18:52,603
and then we started working, yeah, as a competition.

371
00:18:57,110 --> 00:19:01,960
October 1994, was the international symposium

372
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,920
on intelligent vehicles in Paris.

373
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,100
So the rest of the world working in this area,

374
00:19:08,100 --> 00:19:11,890
they gathered there, and we were able to demonstrate

375
00:19:11,890 --> 00:19:15,310
free-lane driving at speeds as you liked,

376
00:19:15,310 --> 00:19:18,040
doing lane changes, which has been done

377
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:19,943
fully autonomously for the first time.

378
00:19:20,900 --> 00:19:24,570
Europe had advanced to the top of the development

379
00:19:24,570 --> 00:19:26,803
in this half a decade.

380
00:19:27,828 --> 00:19:31,078
(speaking in Japanese)

381
00:19:48,970 --> 00:19:50,750
He was the first one to really show

382
00:19:50,750 --> 00:19:52,650
that you could do this at high speeds,

383
00:19:52,650 --> 00:19:54,270
that speed actually is not an issue,

384
00:19:54,270 --> 00:19:57,070
but even today, many people won't know him.

385
00:19:57,070 --> 00:19:59,860
But the work that he did influenced decisions,

386
00:19:59,860 --> 00:20:02,170
like, even the DARPA Grand Challenge

387
00:20:02,170 --> 00:20:04,350
might have not happened without his work.

388
00:20:04,350 --> 00:20:07,650
(upbeat music)

389
00:20:07,650 --> 00:20:09,640
Welcome to the DARPA Grand Challenge.

390
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,810
The objective, create a self-navigating,

391
00:20:11,810 --> 00:20:14,240
autonomous vehicle that can safely drive

392
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,510
132 miles through a harsh desert environment

393
00:20:17,510 --> 00:20:19,163
without human intervention.

394
00:20:20,110 --> 00:20:23,810
So, in 2004, DARPA, the Pentagon's research agency,

395
00:20:23,810 --> 00:20:26,840
put out a challenge, I think it was a million dollars,

396
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,193
{\an8}to see who could develop a self-driving car.

397
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:32,982
{\an8}If you think back in that context,

398
00:20:32,982 --> 00:20:34,810
{\an8}(explosion blasting)

399
00:20:34,810 --> 00:20:37,570
{\an8}this was at a time when IEDs were causing

400
00:20:37,570 --> 00:20:39,630
{\an8}all sorts of mayhem during the Iraq war.

401
00:20:39,630 --> 00:20:43,430
{\an8}Soldiers were being killed. Convoys were being disrupted.

402
00:20:43,430 --> 00:20:47,300
And so the idea was looking at the pace of robotics,

403
00:20:47,300 --> 00:20:49,583
how could we develop a self-driving vehicle?

404
00:20:52,037 --> 00:20:55,310
There was no more technologically forward

405
00:20:55,310 --> 00:20:57,920
and focused group on the planet.

406
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:02,600
DARPA, which is responsible for the internet,

407
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,600
is really a funding organization for gizmos.

408
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,310
So I had been working on NASA robots.

409
00:21:09,310 --> 00:21:11,980
The robot I'd been working on was used to develop techniques

410
00:21:11,980 --> 00:21:14,010
for exploring other planets, and we were driving

411
00:21:14,010 --> 00:21:15,690
that around the desert, and it was moving at, I don't know,

412
00:21:15,690 --> 00:21:18,100
15 centimeters a second, which is,

413
00:21:18,100 --> 00:21:20,910
somebody with a walker moves at that pace.

414
00:21:20,910 --> 00:21:24,520
{\an8}And my advisor said, there's this DARPA Grand Challenge

415
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,020
{\an8}which was to get a robot to drive from Los Angeles

416
00:21:27,020 --> 00:21:29,173
{\an8}to Las Vegas in less than 10 hours.

417
00:21:30,028 --> 00:21:32,000
And you know, they said you'd have to hit peak speeds

418
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,088
{\an8}of 50 miles per hour, and that just sounded really cool.

419
00:21:35,088 --> 00:21:37,671
{\an8}(gentle music)

420
00:21:43,730 --> 00:21:48,180
The first year, 2004, nobody drove more than 7 1/2 miles

421
00:21:48,180 --> 00:21:52,253
over I think a 150-miles course, in the California desert.

422
00:21:54,490 --> 00:21:57,070
We went seven miles out in the desert,

423
00:21:57,070 --> 00:22:00,651
and then basically the thing burst into flames.

424
00:22:00,651 --> 00:22:03,234
(gentle music)

425
00:22:04,990 --> 00:22:06,620
Nobody'd won the first one.

426
00:22:06,620 --> 00:22:08,590
{\an8}Some lessons were learned, and they came back at it

427
00:22:08,590 --> 00:22:11,013
{\an8}the next year, and Stanford University won it.

428
00:22:14,070 --> 00:22:16,330
{\an8}Then the urban challenge came up where this time

429
00:22:16,330 --> 00:22:18,810
it was driving around a retired air base,

430
00:22:18,810 --> 00:22:22,590
and this was this chance to see these vehicles interacting,

431
00:22:22,590 --> 00:22:25,630
and I think that was probably where I got hooked.

432
00:22:25,630 --> 00:22:27,250
It was kind of a surreal experience.

433
00:22:27,250 --> 00:22:29,800
The whole research community got to see

434
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,870
all of these incredibly sophisticated agents at the time,

435
00:22:33,870 --> 00:22:36,520
{\an8}driving around completely autonomously on their own,

436
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,610
{\an8}passing each other, yielding to each other,

437
00:22:38,610 --> 00:22:40,090
{\an8}stopping in the middle of the road.

438
00:22:40,090 --> 00:22:42,900
And at the end of the day, we all felt that we had

439
00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:46,707
really seen a major step forward for autonomy.

440
00:22:46,707 --> 00:22:49,290
(upbeat music)

441
00:22:55,269 --> 00:22:58,102
(slow rock music)

442
00:23:03,170 --> 00:23:06,420
{\an8}(speaking in Japanese)

443
00:24:04,993 --> 00:24:07,576
(upbeat music)

444
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,320
For people who don't think they care about design,

445
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,800
they'd be surprised when they start to understand

446
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,390
{\an8}how a design suffuses every experience

447
00:24:21,390 --> 00:24:22,690
{\an8}that they have in the car.

448
00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:26,340
When we think about the fact that maybe the car

449
00:24:26,340 --> 00:24:28,920
doesn't ever have to crash, maybe the car never will crash,

450
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,820
well, the idea of bumpers become debatable.

451
00:24:31,820 --> 00:24:33,700
The idea of the shape of the car.

452
00:24:33,700 --> 00:24:35,720
What happens if there's not a combustion engine?

453
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:36,980
And when there's no transmission,

454
00:24:36,980 --> 00:24:38,680
there's no center hump in the car.

455
00:24:40,810 --> 00:24:44,610
Now, there are no tunnels, there are no bumps,

456
00:24:44,610 --> 00:24:46,310
there's not even hardware.

457
00:24:46,310 --> 00:24:50,780
{\an8}And it allows us to create this amazing open space

458
00:24:50,780 --> 00:24:53,133
{\an8}in a relatively short footprint.

459
00:24:54,550 --> 00:24:57,800
Even the wood grain are little displays,

460
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,670
which as you can see on the other side,

461
00:24:59,670 --> 00:25:02,570
it's picking up people walking on the sidewalk.

462
00:25:02,570 --> 00:25:05,939
It gives you an enhanced view of the world around you.

463
00:25:05,939 --> 00:25:08,920
(upbeat music)

464
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,180
I think car design is very much influenced by technology,

465
00:25:13,180 --> 00:25:17,640
{\an8}and everyone's talking about autonomous vehicles,

466
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,240
{\an8}and designers are exploring, well, what does that mean?

467
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,240
The steering wheel retracts.

468
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:29,010
The pedals retract also, and you're able to relax

469
00:25:29,010 --> 00:25:31,440
and do what you were going to do.

470
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,010
Friends in the industry start to talk about

471
00:25:34,010 --> 00:25:35,690
this use of the third space.

472
00:25:35,690 --> 00:25:37,900
If you have home, and you have work,

473
00:25:37,900 --> 00:25:40,700
well, there's this other space that you're gonna occupy.

474
00:25:41,910 --> 00:25:43,900
So then you start to think about questions like,

475
00:25:43,900 --> 00:25:45,480
well, what are you gonna do there?

476
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,583
How are you gonna sit? How are you gonna engage with people?

477
00:25:47,583 --> 00:25:49,650
Are you gonna work in that space?

478
00:25:49,650 --> 00:25:50,483
Are you gonna play in that space?

479
00:25:50,483 --> 00:25:52,320
Are you gonna watch movies?

480
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,540
Everything about the way that we encounter

481
00:25:54,540 --> 00:25:58,000
and think about and experience design of a car

482
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,223
is up for debate now.

483
00:26:01,333 --> 00:26:03,410
It's very hard for me to imagine a driverless car

484
00:26:03,410 --> 00:26:05,480
being anything other than a commodity.

485
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,033
It's an appliance, and appliances have very,

486
00:26:09,033 --> 00:26:11,433
very different rules than art objects.

487
00:26:14,020 --> 00:26:16,190
What do you look for when you buy a fridge?

488
00:26:16,190 --> 00:26:18,810
You don't want it to look radical and edgy,

489
00:26:18,810 --> 00:26:22,360
and you're not interested in its top-end performance.

490
00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:24,580
You're interested in that it functions as a fridge

491
00:26:24,580 --> 00:26:26,250
in a thoroughly predictable way,

492
00:26:26,250 --> 00:26:27,390
day after day after day after day,

493
00:26:27,390 --> 00:26:29,850
and that it not call excessive attention

494
00:26:29,850 --> 00:26:31,100
to itself in the kitchen.

495
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,283
That's what we're looking at for the future of cars.

496
00:26:36,460 --> 00:26:39,960
I think some people were under the misconception

497
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,723
that all autonomous vehicles will be pods.

498
00:26:45,610 --> 00:26:47,600
There could be a wide variety of executions.

499
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,920
Yeah, there may be pods, but autonomous vehicles

500
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:55,920
could be applied to that car, to a '57 Corvette.

501
00:26:57,150 --> 00:27:01,860
If anything, the technology just allows creativity

502
00:27:01,860 --> 00:27:05,393
to just explode and go into so many different directions.

503
00:27:10,860 --> 00:27:13,910
Once research engineers have proven the viability

504
00:27:13,910 --> 00:27:16,310
of this technology and the design innovators

505
00:27:16,310 --> 00:27:19,810
started expanding the possibilities, then car manufacturers

506
00:27:19,810 --> 00:27:21,940
really began to pay attention, and the industry

507
00:27:21,940 --> 00:27:24,220
gradually moved from dismissing the technology

508
00:27:24,220 --> 00:27:26,180
as far-fetched to embracing it

509
00:27:26,180 --> 00:27:27,913
as the future of their business.

510
00:27:29,270 --> 00:27:32,490
People understand that there's a lot of good

511
00:27:32,490 --> 00:27:34,230
that can be done, but again,

512
00:27:34,230 --> 00:27:37,070
the economic aspect of this is profound.

513
00:27:37,070 --> 00:27:38,790
You wanna be part of that wave,

514
00:27:38,790 --> 00:27:41,650
you don't wanna be kind of washed away by it.

515
00:27:41,650 --> 00:27:43,580
{\an8}Transportation's one of these things where for years

516
00:27:43,580 --> 00:27:45,930
{\an8}we've been taught to think of it a certain way.

517
00:27:48,250 --> 00:27:50,690
But when you take a good hard look at the economics

518
00:27:50,690 --> 00:27:54,060
behind your transportation use, for a great many people,

519
00:27:54,060 --> 00:27:56,190
there is an enormous opportunity

520
00:27:56,190 --> 00:27:59,290
to get more value out of that transportation dollar.

521
00:27:59,290 --> 00:28:01,880
If you look at the personal trips that are taken

522
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,890
each year in the U.S., we do 400 billion trips a year,

523
00:28:05,890 --> 00:28:10,700
{\an8}and 45% of those are for shopping or running errands.

524
00:28:10,700 --> 00:28:12,570
And we think that we have the opportunity

525
00:28:12,570 --> 00:28:15,550
to replace some of those, maybe most of those,

526
00:28:15,550 --> 00:28:17,690
with a vehicle, a friendly little robot

527
00:28:17,690 --> 00:28:19,040
that might do those trips for you

528
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,140
and save you both the time and the effort.

529
00:28:22,120 --> 00:28:24,150
What was your record collection

530
00:28:24,150 --> 00:28:26,570
is now a global library of media.

531
00:28:26,570 --> 00:28:29,030
The house that used to be your home

532
00:28:29,030 --> 00:28:30,523
is now being used by other people

533
00:28:30,523 --> 00:28:32,990
when they're in town for a short period of time.

534
00:28:32,990 --> 00:28:35,280
And the same thing is true for apparel,

535
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,270
handbags, and dozens of other categories.

536
00:28:38,270 --> 00:28:40,610
We're going to move away from the ownership model.

537
00:28:40,610 --> 00:28:42,780
We saw that with the introduction of leasing.

538
00:28:42,780 --> 00:28:44,710
Now we start to see ride sharing come in,

539
00:28:44,710 --> 00:28:47,570
and that idea that maybe you don't need to even lease a car,

540
00:28:47,570 --> 00:28:48,620
you just need to pay for the minutes

541
00:28:48,620 --> 00:28:50,770
that you're gonna use it.

542
00:28:50,770 --> 00:28:52,340
{\an8}I think we're gonna see a convergence

543
00:28:52,340 --> 00:28:53,980
{\an8}that we've never before seen

544
00:28:53,980 --> 00:28:56,840
{\an8}between the movement of people and goods.

545
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,540
There is a rife opportunity

546
00:28:58,540 --> 00:29:01,550
in the commercial trucking industry to leverage

547
00:29:01,550 --> 00:29:04,770
these technologies for commercial gain on the freeways,

548
00:29:04,770 --> 00:29:08,130
but then also in urban environments as well.

549
00:29:08,130 --> 00:29:09,240
We're taking a look tonight

550
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,930
{\an8}at how jobs as a future are changing.

551
00:29:11,930 --> 00:29:14,530
Take long-haul trucking, for example.

552
00:29:14,530 --> 00:29:17,530
It's not at all clear that the autonomous truck

553
00:29:17,530 --> 00:29:18,820
will no longer have a driver.

554
00:29:18,820 --> 00:29:21,520
It just may be the case that the driver isn't driving.

555
00:29:22,410 --> 00:29:24,070
There's a million things that person does

556
00:29:24,070 --> 00:29:26,010
other than drive the truck.

557
00:29:26,010 --> 00:29:28,398
Those tasks don't go away.

558
00:29:28,398 --> 00:29:31,070
(truck engine rumbling)

559
00:29:31,070 --> 00:29:34,440
Trucking is the backbone of the American economy.

560
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,510
{\an8}Without trucks, America stops.

561
00:29:37,510 --> 00:29:40,350
The clothes that you're wearing, your shoes, your car,

562
00:29:40,350 --> 00:29:43,610
the food that you're eating, everything came by truck.

563
00:29:43,610 --> 00:29:46,690
Trucks are a necessary evil, because without them,

564
00:29:46,690 --> 00:29:50,287
you're naked and hungry. (laughs)

565
00:29:50,287 --> 00:29:52,870
(upbeat music)

566
00:29:58,310 --> 00:30:00,000
This country's amazing.

567
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,960
There's every kind of scenery you can think of.

568
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,743
To get up every morning and know that you're gonna see

569
00:30:06,743 --> 00:30:10,210
a different sunrise over a different cornfield,

570
00:30:10,210 --> 00:30:14,883
a different lake, or in the mountains, it's just incredible.

571
00:30:16,230 --> 00:30:19,273
I'm a tourist first. I'm a truck driver second.

572
00:30:23,810 --> 00:30:26,670
You go through those little towns and it's nice.

573
00:30:26,670 --> 00:30:28,220
They've got a nice little church,

574
00:30:28,220 --> 00:30:30,560
and people mowing their lawn, they wave to you.

575
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,680
Kids riding their bicycles or standing on the sidewalk

576
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,457
going, "Bonk, bonk!" (laughs)

577
00:30:37,900 --> 00:30:41,010
Trucking is still the same as it always has been,

578
00:30:41,010 --> 00:30:44,500
whereas you climb into a truck and you put it in gear

579
00:30:44,500 --> 00:30:47,400
and you drive, unless it's an automatic. (chuckles)

580
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,610
Will that change in the future?

581
00:30:49,610 --> 00:30:51,683
I guess it's leaning that way.

582
00:30:52,530 --> 00:30:54,803
But no autonomous truck's gonna take my job,

583
00:30:55,740 --> 00:30:58,573
because I do things an autonomous truck can't do.

584
00:30:58,573 --> 00:31:01,156
(gentle music)

585
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,480
Sometimes I've had to do things that are not legal

586
00:31:07,340 --> 00:31:08,950
in order to avoid an accident.

587
00:31:08,950 --> 00:31:12,540
For example, an oncoming car is coming into your lane.

588
00:31:12,540 --> 00:31:14,060
You have to make a judgment call.

589
00:31:14,060 --> 00:31:16,050
You gonna stop, you gonna crash into it,

590
00:31:16,050 --> 00:31:18,510
or you gonna go on the other side of the road?

591
00:31:18,510 --> 00:31:20,820
Which is what I did, and I saved my life,

592
00:31:20,820 --> 00:31:25,160
and the driver's life, and what's a computer gonna do?

593
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,780
Okay, it can probably stop in half the amount of time

594
00:31:27,780 --> 00:31:29,917
I can stop, but even still, the car's gonna crash into it

595
00:31:29,917 --> 00:31:33,173
and that can still kill the driver of that car.

596
00:31:34,140 --> 00:31:36,613
So I just don't think we're ready for it yet.

597
00:31:38,630 --> 00:31:43,630
In a future where autonomous trucks are up and running

598
00:31:43,910 --> 00:31:46,590
and without glitches, it's sad to think

599
00:31:46,590 --> 00:31:49,970
what's gonna happen to trucking as we know it.

600
00:31:49,970 --> 00:31:52,570
Will they have other jobs available in the field?

601
00:31:52,570 --> 00:31:55,960
Probably, like loading trucks and unloading trucks.

602
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,270
But then that'll probably become autonomous

603
00:31:58,270 --> 00:31:59,423
down the road, too.

604
00:32:01,460 --> 00:32:04,420
How can you compete with a robotic forklift

605
00:32:04,420 --> 00:32:06,220
that doesn't require a lunch break,

606
00:32:06,220 --> 00:32:08,950
it doesn't get sick, it doesn't need worker's comp

607
00:32:08,950 --> 00:32:12,820
or any of that stuff, so we're screwed. (laughs)

608
00:32:12,820 --> 00:32:16,408
It's coming to a town near us. (laughs)

609
00:32:16,408 --> 00:32:18,991
{\an8}(wind howling)

610
00:32:23,810 --> 00:32:26,613
There's some great cultural institutions in Detroit.

611
00:32:27,940 --> 00:32:31,173
{\an8}And one of them is the Detroit Institute of Arts.

612
00:32:32,690 --> 00:32:34,140
And those have the really,

613
00:32:34,140 --> 00:32:37,990
really subversive Diego Rivera murals.

614
00:32:37,990 --> 00:32:39,720
At the top you've got these beautiful frescoes

615
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,060
of just elements being harnessed,

616
00:32:43,060 --> 00:32:46,450
and all of this stuff that the Earth creates

617
00:32:46,450 --> 00:32:50,590
gets turned into this tiny little car.

618
00:32:50,590 --> 00:32:53,800
And what Rivera was saying was the seeds

619
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,902
of that system's destruction were in the system itself.

620
00:32:57,902 --> 00:33:01,402
(gentle orchestral music)

621
00:33:03,490 --> 00:33:05,430
You look at how it is today,

622
00:33:05,430 --> 00:33:08,673
and the car is really perceived as a dinosaur.

623
00:33:09,670 --> 00:33:12,910
The industry is seen as a dinosaur.

624
00:33:12,910 --> 00:33:15,410
Detroit is sort of seen as this

625
00:33:15,410 --> 00:33:19,780
unsophisticated Midwestern backwater.

626
00:33:19,780 --> 00:33:23,560
It's not the kind of integrated modern society

627
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,500
that people think of when they think of the West Coast,

628
00:33:26,500 --> 00:33:28,050
especially Northern California.

629
00:33:29,010 --> 00:33:31,760
We think of semiconductors and high-performance

630
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,370
processors as some of the most complex products

631
00:33:34,370 --> 00:33:36,150
man has ever made.

632
00:33:36,150 --> 00:33:38,940
But a car, a vehicle, is also quite complex.

633
00:33:38,940 --> 00:33:42,840
{\an8}You have thousands of parts, a huge supply chain,

634
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,670
{\an8}and the automotive industry does it very well.

635
00:33:45,670 --> 00:33:47,490
And I think in a sense maybe they don't get credit

636
00:33:47,490 --> 00:33:50,780
for how complex it is actually to bring all of that together

637
00:33:50,780 --> 00:33:54,333
to mass-produce the vehicles that we enjoy on a daily basis.

638
00:33:56,190 --> 00:33:58,500
Making a car is a difficult,

639
00:33:58,500 --> 00:34:01,200
labor-intensive, capital-intensive thing.

640
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,580
It has to be engineered to the highest levels

641
00:34:03,580 --> 00:34:06,820
of safety, reliability, performance.

642
00:34:06,820 --> 00:34:09,740
It's a hard thing to do right, and it's taken us

643
00:34:09,740 --> 00:34:12,150
a hundred years to kind of get to this point

644
00:34:12,150 --> 00:34:13,550
where it's almost perfected.

645
00:34:14,420 --> 00:34:16,940
In contrast, in Silicon Valley, you've got these folks

646
00:34:16,940 --> 00:34:19,390
that are coming at it from the software perspective

647
00:34:19,390 --> 00:34:21,450
and thinking about these interesting problems

648
00:34:21,450 --> 00:34:23,190
in machine learning and computer vision

649
00:34:23,190 --> 00:34:25,230
and how do we make these vehicles drive,

650
00:34:25,230 --> 00:34:27,660
and so there's actually because of the conflict

651
00:34:27,660 --> 00:34:29,490
and challenges they're facing, there is this opportunity

652
00:34:29,490 --> 00:34:32,640
to kind of bring some new thinking into the industry.

653
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,470
Well, there used to be a big three,

654
00:34:34,470 --> 00:34:37,950
Chrysler, General Motors, and Ford.

655
00:34:37,950 --> 00:34:41,250
Every year the dealers would soap up their windows,

656
00:34:41,250 --> 00:34:42,890
and they'd have the cars in the showroom,

657
00:34:42,890 --> 00:34:44,260
but you couldn't see it.

658
00:34:44,260 --> 00:34:46,420
It was the release of the iPhone,

659
00:34:46,420 --> 00:34:49,250
the excitement was exactly the same.

660
00:34:49,250 --> 00:34:51,740
There is a thrill of the new.

661
00:34:51,740 --> 00:34:53,870
The car business was the first

662
00:34:53,870 --> 00:34:55,760
to really capture that and exploit it.

663
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,680
{\an8}(people cheering)

664
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,760
{\an8}Silicon Valley is of, I think, that same mindset.

665
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,490
{\an8}Here's this new invention

666
00:35:03,490 --> 00:35:05,630
{\an8}that's gonna make your life so much better.

667
00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:08,710
{\an8}But generally these are not $50,000 things

668
00:35:08,710 --> 00:35:10,510
{\an8}that go 200 miles an hour,

669
00:35:10,510 --> 00:35:15,120
and they don't have the associated safety risks.

670
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,660
One of my favorite things to say is, you know,

671
00:35:16,660 --> 00:35:19,300
{\an8}when your app crashes, nobody dies.

672
00:35:19,300 --> 00:35:21,500
{\an8}So welcome to Silicon Valley, because guess what,

673
00:35:21,500 --> 00:35:23,850
{\an8}when your vehicle crashes, somebody could die.

674
00:35:23,850 --> 00:35:25,800
It's a whole different mentality for them

675
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,550
to understand what's going on here.

676
00:35:29,410 --> 00:35:32,860
The way Detroit builds a car is you have a concept,

677
00:35:32,860 --> 00:35:36,340
you develop it, you test it, you test it, you test it,

678
00:35:36,340 --> 00:35:38,710
you make sure everything is ready to go

679
00:35:38,710 --> 00:35:40,570
and as good as it can possibly be

680
00:35:40,570 --> 00:35:42,533
before you release it into the wild.

681
00:35:43,690 --> 00:35:45,130
The Silicon Valley way of doing things

682
00:35:45,130 --> 00:35:47,090
is much more progressive.

683
00:35:47,090 --> 00:35:50,846
And you see that expressed in how Tesla does business.

684
00:35:50,846 --> 00:35:53,070
(electronic music)

685
00:35:53,070 --> 00:35:54,950
In Tesla's business, the drivers

686
00:35:54,950 --> 00:35:56,970
are part of the car development process.

687
00:35:56,970 --> 00:35:59,560
It's very fluid, and they do beta test

688
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,446
Autopilot on their customers.

689
00:36:02,446 --> 00:36:05,778
{\an8}(crowd cheering)

690
00:36:05,778 --> 00:36:07,474
{\an8}Today we're planning an exciting announcement,

691
00:36:07,474 --> 00:36:10,886
{\an8}which is the release of Autopilot.

692
00:36:10,886 --> 00:36:13,996
{\an8}We still think of it sort of as a public beta.

693
00:36:13,996 --> 00:36:16,146
{\an8}We actually explicitly describe it as beta.

694
00:36:18,058 --> 00:36:19,885
Don't know what I'm gonna do with my hands down here.

695
00:36:19,885 --> 00:36:22,459
(man laughs)

696
00:36:22,459 --> 00:36:23,649
In the short term I think it's very important

697
00:36:23,649 --> 00:36:26,049
{\an8}that people exercise caution.

698
00:36:26,049 --> 00:36:27,242
{\an8}We're advising drivers

699
00:36:27,242 --> 00:36:29,542
{\an8}to keep their hands on the wheel just in case.

700
00:36:30,620 --> 00:36:32,730
{\an8}Federal safety regulators this morning were investigating

701
00:36:32,730 --> 00:36:35,760
{\an8}the first deadly crash involving a self-driving car.

702
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,151
{\an8}Joshua Brown was using the Autopilot feature

703
00:36:38,151 --> 00:36:40,720
{\an8}on his Tesla Model S when he was killed

704
00:36:40,720 --> 00:36:42,493
{\an8}in a Florida highway collision.

705
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,320
In that Joshua Brown accident,

706
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,900
{\an8}he thought he had a high degree of reassurance

707
00:36:47,900 --> 00:36:51,540
{\an8}in the system, and the Autopilot misread the environment

708
00:36:51,540 --> 00:36:54,940
and sent him, you know, through the side of a truck.

709
00:36:54,940 --> 00:36:56,910
The driver of the truck says that Brown

710
00:36:56,910 --> 00:37:00,030
was watching Harry Potter on the TV in the car at the time,

711
00:37:00,030 --> 00:37:02,070
{\an8}but the sun blocked the car's camera

712
00:37:02,070 --> 00:37:03,460
{\an8}from seeing the truck turning,

713
00:37:03,460 --> 00:37:05,890
{\an8}and that's why the car never braked.

714
00:37:05,890 --> 00:37:09,160
{\an8}To deliver a truly automotive level of safety,

715
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,990
or beyond that, an aeronautical level of safety,

716
00:37:11,990 --> 00:37:14,980
you can't do the agile beta testing thing.

717
00:37:14,980 --> 00:37:17,273
You just can't, people aren't gonna trust it,

718
00:37:17,273 --> 00:37:20,240
and then people will reject the technology.

719
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:22,020
There's this sense of independence

720
00:37:22,020 --> 00:37:23,870
that surrounds the idea of autonomy.

721
00:37:23,870 --> 00:37:26,920
It's being able to do something yourself.

722
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:28,840
The question is, when we call something

723
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,960
an autonomous vehicle, whose autonomy are we talking about?

724
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,240
Is it ours? Is it the robot?

725
00:37:34,240 --> 00:37:36,930
Is it people programming the robot?

726
00:37:36,930 --> 00:37:39,920
{\an8}And I think it's that sense of otherness

727
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:41,663
{\an8}that creates this sense of fear.

728
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,380
We'll put our kids in cars with our aunts and uncles,

729
00:37:46,380 --> 00:37:48,510
who are blind in one eye.

730
00:37:48,510 --> 00:37:51,250
When a human is doing the crashing, we accept it,

731
00:37:51,250 --> 00:37:52,893
because we know we're fallible.

732
00:37:54,570 --> 00:37:56,840
When a computer's doing the crashing,

733
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,750
that's existential dread, man.

734
00:37:58,750 --> 00:38:00,670
Funny enough, that is how people think.

735
00:38:00,670 --> 00:38:03,620
Like, we go, we'd rather be killed by one of our own

736
00:38:03,620 --> 00:38:05,360
than by, yeah, there's people who're like,

737
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:06,810
yeah, I don't wanna be killed by a machine.

738
00:38:06,810 --> 00:38:08,210
I wanna be killed by Dave.

739
00:38:08,210 --> 00:38:10,860
(audience laughing)

740
00:38:10,860 --> 00:38:12,810
{\an8}Things that engender trust are open

741
00:38:12,810 --> 00:38:15,670
{\an8}and clear communication, dialogue, eye contact,

742
00:38:15,670 --> 00:38:17,910
{\an8}all these things that when you meet another person,

743
00:38:17,910 --> 00:38:20,390
{\an8}makes you get a sense of trust about them.

744
00:38:20,390 --> 00:38:23,000
Now, we're asking people to do that with a machine.

745
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:24,790
Machines of course have these stereotypes

746
00:38:24,790 --> 00:38:28,370
as being these soulless, faceless boxes

747
00:38:28,370 --> 00:38:30,610
that are just making arbitrary decisions for us,

748
00:38:30,610 --> 00:38:33,363
and so I think that's a much more difficult challenge.

749
00:38:34,300 --> 00:38:38,280
You're a pedestrian at a crosswalk, and you see a car

750
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:42,140
being driven by a human pull up to a stop sign.

751
00:38:42,140 --> 00:38:44,080
If their head is turned to the left,

752
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:46,170
or they're looking in the rear-view mirror,

753
00:38:46,170 --> 00:38:47,930
you know that they don't see you.

754
00:38:47,930 --> 00:38:50,890
There's a tremendous amount of body language information

755
00:38:50,890 --> 00:38:53,473
exchanged between the pedestrian and the driver.

756
00:38:54,472 --> 00:38:56,293
How're you gonna read that in a car?

757
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,100
How are you gonna, as a pedestrian,

758
00:38:59,100 --> 00:39:00,600
know what the car is thinking?

759
00:39:05,318 --> 00:39:07,901
(upbeat music)

760
00:39:11,100 --> 00:39:14,470
Although a lot of focus of research on automated vehicles

761
00:39:14,470 --> 00:39:16,800
has been on the inside, we wanted to explore

762
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,010
what this introduction of this new type of vehicle

763
00:39:19,010 --> 00:39:21,780
into the environment, how that would affect

764
00:39:21,780 --> 00:39:24,090
other road users, like pedestrians, bicyclists,

765
00:39:24,090 --> 00:39:25,590
or even other drivers.

766
00:39:25,590 --> 00:39:28,070
{\an8}So to do that, we needed to really get out

767
00:39:28,070 --> 00:39:30,222
{\an8}in the real world to evaluate it.

768
00:39:30,222 --> 00:39:33,151
(upbeat music)

769
00:39:33,151 --> 00:39:35,410
We created a seat suit that would cover up the driver.

770
00:39:35,410 --> 00:39:36,640
You couldn't see their face.

771
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:38,940
It looked just like a regular seat.

772
00:39:38,940 --> 00:39:40,280
We did not tint the windows.

773
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,130
We wanted people to be able to see in,

774
00:39:42,130 --> 00:39:44,940
and confirm their suspicion that there is nobody in the car

775
00:39:44,940 --> 00:39:47,010
when in reality there was.

776
00:39:47,010 --> 00:39:50,050
We've been researching new types of lighting signals

777
00:39:50,050 --> 00:39:52,950
that would be able to replace those interactions

778
00:39:52,950 --> 00:39:54,913
that would occur between two humans.

779
00:39:56,070 --> 00:39:59,943
In a way we are attempting to create a new type of language.

780
00:40:01,170 --> 00:40:03,700
What we don't want is a scenario where you come

781
00:40:03,700 --> 00:40:06,280
to an intersection where you have different cars,

782
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:07,390
all with different signals,

783
00:40:07,390 --> 00:40:10,610
signaling their intent in different ways.

784
00:40:10,610 --> 00:40:13,220
And so if we can introduce new technology

785
00:40:13,220 --> 00:40:15,820
that is not overly complex, they'll be able

786
00:40:15,820 --> 00:40:18,040
to learn it quicker, adapt to it,

787
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,073
and then trust it a little bit faster.

788
00:40:24,020 --> 00:40:26,990
Will the transition to full driverless-ness

789
00:40:26,990 --> 00:40:29,990
be a little bit like the transition

790
00:40:29,990 --> 00:40:33,138
to elevator use in skyscrapers?

791
00:40:33,138 --> 00:40:35,457
(elevator bell dings)

792
00:40:35,457 --> 00:40:37,124
Down, boy.

793
00:40:39,909 --> 00:40:41,177
So if you think about elevators,

794
00:40:41,177 --> 00:40:43,450
and the idea that an attendant was needed,

795
00:40:43,450 --> 00:40:45,530
well, initially there was an attendant needed

796
00:40:45,530 --> 00:40:47,290
to actually manipulate the machine.

797
00:40:47,290 --> 00:40:50,710
{\an8}But as the elevator improved, as technologies enabled

798
00:40:50,710 --> 00:40:52,150
{\an8}anyone to go and control it,

799
00:40:52,150 --> 00:40:54,100
people still weren't comfortable with that idea.

800
00:40:54,100 --> 00:40:56,660
They still needed to have an attendant in there

801
00:40:56,660 --> 00:40:59,293
just to provide some comfort around the experience.

802
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:06,100
Social adoption of a new idea vastly lags behind

803
00:41:06,100 --> 00:41:08,900
technological perfection of a new idea.

804
00:41:08,900 --> 00:41:11,580
The ATM was invented in the 1960s.

805
00:41:11,580 --> 00:41:14,920
Ask yourself, when was the first time you used an ATM?

806
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,830
It was probably in the '80s, maybe the late '80s.

807
00:41:18,830 --> 00:41:21,280
But an ATM, super straightforward,

808
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:24,260
cash from a machine, right?

809
00:41:24,260 --> 00:41:26,420
People took forever to trust the machine.

810
00:41:26,420 --> 00:41:29,650
So with that in mind, I suspect that

811
00:41:29,650 --> 00:41:33,250
full-scale adoption of driverless cars

812
00:41:33,250 --> 00:41:36,773
is something that is not happening overnight.

813
00:41:38,637 --> 00:41:40,790
{\an8}(gentle music)

814
00:41:40,790 --> 00:41:43,020
{\an8}Arizona is quickly becoming the state

815
00:41:43,020 --> 00:41:45,060
for self-driving cars.

816
00:41:45,060 --> 00:41:46,690
The lack of rules helps.

817
00:41:46,690 --> 00:41:47,980
Governor Doug Ducey has stripped

818
00:41:47,980 --> 00:41:50,330
any regulations on the industry.

819
00:41:50,330 --> 00:41:52,650
Google's driverless tech program, Waymo,

820
00:41:52,650 --> 00:41:55,180
is offering free rides in driverless cars.

821
00:41:55,180 --> 00:41:56,940
The company has said it's allowing anyone

822
00:41:56,940 --> 00:41:59,970
in the Phoenix area to apply to its early rider program,

823
00:41:59,970 --> 00:42:01,820
which will accept hundreds of people.

824
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:06,460
Yeah, we've been watching them

825
00:42:06,460 --> 00:42:07,900
here in the Valley for some time.

826
00:42:07,900 --> 00:42:09,730
They started out being Google cars,

827
00:42:09,730 --> 00:42:12,176
and this was before they were labeled,

828
00:42:12,176 --> 00:42:14,793
{\an8}and now it's a rare day that I don't see one.

829
00:42:16,350 --> 00:42:17,800
{\an8}About a year and a half ago, I think,

830
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,010
{\an8}we did a survey of our group,

831
00:42:20,010 --> 00:42:22,850
and we phrased it if a driverless service showed up,

832
00:42:22,850 --> 00:42:25,720
how likely are you to want to ride in that?

833
00:42:25,720 --> 00:42:29,030
So the engineers, there wasn't a single one that said,

834
00:42:29,030 --> 00:42:30,735
I wouldn't consider it.

835
00:42:30,735 --> 00:42:33,720
There were several that, including myself,

836
00:42:33,720 --> 00:42:34,803
that said, you bet.

837
00:42:35,870 --> 00:42:38,500
We then got curious and said, can we get a larger sample

838
00:42:38,500 --> 00:42:40,120
if we went out to all the residents?

839
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,597
We did the poll of the general population here,

840
00:42:43,597 --> 00:42:48,597
and a number of them said, no way, I wouldn't ride in one.

841
00:42:50,527 --> 00:42:52,340
The ones that do wanna get out and around,

842
00:42:52,340 --> 00:42:53,173
there's ways that you do that.

843
00:42:53,173 --> 00:42:56,070
There're all kinds of transportation available here.

844
00:42:56,070 --> 00:42:58,690
You can get on a bus and go shopping.

845
00:42:58,690 --> 00:43:01,043
Doing it without a driver would be a big step,

846
00:43:02,050 --> 00:43:06,030
so they say, I'll just stick to my walker. (laughs)

847
00:43:06,030 --> 00:43:09,780
{\an8}When you don't have a reason to spend all your time

848
00:43:09,780 --> 00:43:11,950
{\an8}concentrating on driving the automobile,

849
00:43:11,950 --> 00:43:13,270
{\an8}there's a lot of options.

850
00:43:13,270 --> 00:43:15,758
There's a lot of time that you can use for other things.

851
00:43:15,758 --> 00:43:16,780
{\an8}It would be like the subway.

852
00:43:16,780 --> 00:43:17,890
{\an8}Just getting on the subway,

853
00:43:17,890 --> 00:43:19,890
{\an8}you read your paper going to work.

854
00:43:19,890 --> 00:43:22,710
{\an8}You know, you have a car that's kind of long and big

855
00:43:22,710 --> 00:43:25,430
and you have a table in the middle of it,

856
00:43:25,430 --> 00:43:27,760
and you get it in, and the people sit around the car

857
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:29,760
and you say, "Car, go."

858
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,290
I mean this is all, you know, magic and stuff,

859
00:43:32,290 --> 00:43:34,700
but there's no reason why that can't be done,

860
00:43:34,700 --> 00:43:36,742
why you can't have something like that.

861
00:43:36,742 --> 00:43:39,325
(gentle music)

862
00:43:42,590 --> 00:43:45,510
{\an8}So today my phone didn't charge,

863
00:43:45,510 --> 00:43:47,120
{\an8}and so I woke up, and I looked at the time,

864
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,970
and I was like, oh my God, it's 7:30?

865
00:43:49,970 --> 00:43:54,040
And I was like, I need to go to school in like 10 minutes.

866
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,130
{\an8}Okay, I need to call Waymo, get ready,

867
00:43:56,130 --> 00:43:58,550
{\an8}and then Waymo pulled up in like five minutes

868
00:43:58,550 --> 00:43:59,680
and it was, yeah, it was really easy.

869
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:01,147
So you like, you made it?
<v ->Yeah.

870
00:44:01,147 --> 00:44:04,500
It was like, barely made it, but I made it.

871
00:44:04,500 --> 00:44:07,180
Is it weird being in a self-driving car, though?

872
00:44:07,180 --> 00:44:08,520
It's weird the first couple times,

873
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,167
{\an8}but after you use it you get used to it

874
00:44:10,167 --> 00:44:12,030
{\an8}and you don't even pay attention.

875
00:44:12,030 --> 00:44:15,110
{\an8}Yeah, like time after time I just get on my phone,

876
00:44:15,110 --> 00:44:16,020
plug into the aux and then like-

877
00:44:16,020 --> 00:44:17,490
Like do homework or something?

878
00:44:17,490 --> 00:44:19,260
Yeah, it's super easy.

879
00:44:19,260 --> 00:44:21,910
Yeah, I feel like that's probably one of the main reasons

880
00:44:21,910 --> 00:44:23,890
I don't have my license is-

881
00:44:23,890 --> 00:44:25,660
{\an8}It's 'cause of Waymo?
<v ->Yeah, I mean,

882
00:44:25,660 --> 00:44:27,410
you know, like, 16 is normally the age

883
00:44:27,410 --> 00:44:29,230
that you would get your license,

884
00:44:29,230 --> 00:44:31,700
and at this point, what's the point?

885
00:44:31,700 --> 00:44:32,840
I drive in Waymo.

886
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,180
So do you ever want to learn how to drive

887
00:44:35,180 --> 00:44:36,683
or get your license or anything like that?

888
00:44:36,683 --> 00:44:41,050
I feel like eventually. (laughs)

889
00:44:41,050 --> 00:44:44,040
I still remember, 16th birthday I was there,

890
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:45,700
got my-
Sure.

891
00:44:45,700 --> 00:44:48,340
Got my license, passed the first time and whatever.

892
00:44:48,340 --> 00:44:49,840
Yeah, the world is different,

893
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,580
{\an8}and I think the younger people today

894
00:44:51,580 --> 00:44:54,550
{\an8}are really not as interested in driving

895
00:44:54,550 --> 00:44:56,400
{\an8}as the younger people used to be,

896
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,910
and with being able to function

897
00:44:59,910 --> 00:45:02,810
and get around socially without driving,

898
00:45:02,810 --> 00:45:06,000
a lot of the teenagers today are doing it.

899
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,745
Our parents are always like, "We grew up with landlines.

900
00:45:08,745 --> 00:45:12,560
And we didn't have a computer until we were like

901
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,882
50 years old," and it's just technology as you knew it

902
00:45:15,882 --> 00:45:18,750
is now exploding, and I feel like that's how it was

903
00:45:18,750 --> 00:45:20,100
when the first like iPhone came out

904
00:45:20,100 --> 00:45:22,120
and everyone was like, oh my gosh, and now we're just-

905
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:23,270
Sparked this whole new thing.

906
00:45:23,270 --> 00:45:24,710
Yeah, exactly.
<v ->So this could do the same

907
00:45:24,710 --> 00:45:26,443
thing for transportation.
Exactly.

908
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,310
I mean, the idea that Google

909
00:45:35,310 --> 00:45:38,423
is involved with cars is just so breaks my heart.

910
00:45:39,590 --> 00:45:42,110
What about any of those guys suggests

911
00:45:42,110 --> 00:45:44,670
that they're gonna contribute to car culture

912
00:45:44,670 --> 00:45:46,090
in any meaningful way?

913
00:45:46,090 --> 00:45:48,820
It's about control of the informational element of the car.

914
00:45:48,820 --> 00:45:49,820
It's not about cars.

915
00:45:50,720 --> 00:45:54,180
Whenever you think about what driverless cars look like,

916
00:45:54,180 --> 00:45:56,510
what you're essentially doing is you're creating

917
00:45:56,510 --> 00:46:01,510
an interdependent web of moving automobiles

918
00:46:02,050 --> 00:46:05,620
that are aware of each other and take necessary steps.

919
00:46:05,620 --> 00:46:09,290
That unless you have a kind of systems approach

920
00:46:09,290 --> 00:46:12,840
to this kind of transportation, it wouldn't work.

921
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:17,340
You need to conceive of what the network of cars looks like

922
00:46:17,340 --> 00:46:21,263
before you unleash this technology onto the roads.

923
00:46:23,313 --> 00:46:25,896
(upbeat music)

924
00:46:32,270 --> 00:46:35,640
We are in a low-speed automated shuttle,

925
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,240
{\an8}can transport around 10 people.

926
00:46:38,240 --> 00:46:40,960
{\an8}It's especially designed for campus environments,

927
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:44,130
possibly airports, amusement parks, and as a passenger,

928
00:46:44,130 --> 00:46:46,870
all I had to do was go to the touchscreen,

929
00:46:46,870 --> 00:46:49,220
select the station that I want to go to,

930
00:46:49,220 --> 00:46:51,683
and hit go, and we were on our way.

931
00:46:56,620 --> 00:47:00,110
Mcity is an off-road facility, first of its kind,

932
00:47:00,110 --> 00:47:03,503
purposely built to test connected and automated vehicles.

933
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,920
We've provided a really unique test platform,

934
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,010
and that is our open, connected, and automated vehicles.

935
00:47:12,010 --> 00:47:14,230
And basically these are research vehicles

936
00:47:14,230 --> 00:47:17,830
that are opened up for researchers to go in

937
00:47:17,830 --> 00:47:20,360
and bring their ideas to the vehicles,

938
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,020
and take them right out into Mcity

939
00:47:22,020 --> 00:47:24,540
and experience quote, unquote "real world,"

940
00:47:24,540 --> 00:47:27,993
in a really safe, repeatable, reliable environment.

941
00:47:29,510 --> 00:47:32,420
A connected vehicle can communicate with other vehicles

942
00:47:32,420 --> 00:47:34,440
and infrastructure around it, for safety,

943
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,100
also for efficiency.

944
00:47:36,100 --> 00:47:39,620
An automated vehicle can actually take responsibility

945
00:47:39,620 --> 00:47:42,350
of the driving from the driver.

946
00:47:42,350 --> 00:47:44,400
The two put together are actually

947
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,133
a very powerful combination.

948
00:47:47,150 --> 00:47:51,440
If the traffic signals can help warn oncoming vehicles

949
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:53,210
that someone's about to run a red light,

950
00:47:53,210 --> 00:47:55,610
that can help improve safety at an intersection.

951
00:47:59,470 --> 00:48:02,780
We have to accept the fact that if all cars on the road

952
00:48:02,780 --> 00:48:05,580
are part of some connected grid, the opportunity

953
00:48:05,580 --> 00:48:07,580
for catastrophic error now exists

954
00:48:07,580 --> 00:48:09,480
in a way that it never did before.

955
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:14,480
If it's 2035, somebody can hack in at six o'clock

956
00:48:15,380 --> 00:48:19,690
into the web, as it pertains to the cars on the 405,

957
00:48:19,690 --> 00:48:23,090
and cause every one of those cars to crash into each other.

958
00:48:23,090 --> 00:48:25,930
That's gonna happen, right? It will.

959
00:48:25,930 --> 00:48:28,420
Maybe it only happens once, but like,

960
00:48:28,420 --> 00:48:33,060
it can't happen now, and it will be able to happen,

961
00:48:33,060 --> 00:48:34,060
you know, in the future.

962
00:48:34,060 --> 00:48:36,770
And unless you're comfortable with that,

963
00:48:36,770 --> 00:48:38,170
you can't go down this road.

964
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:42,410
To the automotive industry, security often meant

965
00:48:42,410 --> 00:48:44,170
physical security, right?

966
00:48:44,170 --> 00:48:47,410
Stealing your car, you know, you need to lock it, right?

967
00:48:47,410 --> 00:48:51,160
To Silicon Valley, security has a very different meaning.

968
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,620
You should never assume that it's possible

969
00:48:53,620 --> 00:48:57,330
to physically secure the car from a connectivity standpoint,

970
00:48:57,330 --> 00:49:00,750
so you need to design for an expectation

971
00:49:00,750 --> 00:49:02,550
that these systems will be attacked.

972
00:49:03,810 --> 00:49:06,410
The hacking of Experian, or the hacking

973
00:49:06,410 --> 00:49:09,240
of everyone's Social Security numbers,

974
00:49:09,240 --> 00:49:12,410
are incredibly devastating acts, but there's something

975
00:49:12,410 --> 00:49:14,090
weirdly intangible about them, right?

976
00:49:14,090 --> 00:49:16,830
You don't see the guy who's got your credit card numbers

977
00:49:16,830 --> 00:49:19,010
and your Social Security number.

978
00:49:19,010 --> 00:49:21,210
The kind of breaches in information technology

979
00:49:21,210 --> 00:49:22,400
that we will see in the world

980
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,490
with dependent cars will be tangible.

981
00:49:25,490 --> 00:49:29,210
I can see in my mind the picture of what the 405 looks like

982
00:49:29,210 --> 00:49:31,970
when someone hacks in and causes 5,000 cars

983
00:49:31,970 --> 00:49:33,840
to crash simultaneously.

984
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:37,648
I mean, it's not gonna be, it will not be pretty.

985
00:49:37,648 --> 00:49:40,815
(car engine rumbling)

986
00:49:43,088 --> 00:49:48,088
(tires squealing)
(car crashing)

987
00:49:48,670 --> 00:49:53,598
For 2016, there were 37,461 lives lost on our highways.

988
00:49:53,598 --> 00:49:55,360
(people screaming)

989
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:56,510
For the last numbers we have,

990
00:49:56,510 --> 00:50:01,473
there were 2.4 million injuries, 6.3 million crashes.

991
00:50:04,100 --> 00:50:06,310
The reason I made sure everybody knew the exact number

992
00:50:06,310 --> 00:50:09,483
of fatalities is because every one of those is a person.

993
00:50:11,170 --> 00:50:13,710
So it's a mother, father, brother, sister,

994
00:50:13,710 --> 00:50:15,760
your neighbor, a coworker.

995
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,610
People love to talk about statistics, but they're people.

996
00:50:21,090 --> 00:50:23,710
We have this amazing thing with the automobile.

997
00:50:23,710 --> 00:50:25,270
It allows us to get from one place to another

998
00:50:25,270 --> 00:50:27,820
so much quicker than we ever used to a century ago.

999
00:50:27,820 --> 00:50:31,003
But we kill one and a quarter million people worldwide.

1000
00:50:31,890 --> 00:50:35,820
That's horrific, and there's an opportunity

1001
00:50:35,820 --> 00:50:37,510
to really drive that number down.

1002
00:50:37,510 --> 00:50:40,680
The car is relatively safe,

1003
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:44,220
{\an8}but the car right now is just an instrument.

1004
00:50:44,220 --> 00:50:47,080
{\an8}That instrument is of course led and controlled

1005
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:48,928
and maneuvered by a driver.

1006
00:50:48,928 --> 00:50:51,511
(somber music)

1007
00:50:53,581 --> 00:50:57,140
94% of crashes are due to the human,

1008
00:50:57,140 --> 00:50:59,640
so that's a choice or an error that we make.

1009
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:01,970
A choice to drink, a choice to reach for that phone,

1010
00:51:01,970 --> 00:51:04,450
not get enough sleep, an error of looking one direction

1011
00:51:04,450 --> 00:51:05,830
when you should've been looking the other.

1012
00:51:05,830 --> 00:51:07,880
94% of crashes.

1013
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,070
So when you think, where's our opportunity

1014
00:51:10,070 --> 00:51:12,800
with new technology, that should be the target.

1015
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:14,210
So the promise of autonomous vehicles

1016
00:51:14,210 --> 00:51:16,530
{\an8}is that they will be safer

1017
00:51:16,530 --> 00:51:19,880
{\an8}and likely much safer than human drivers,

1018
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:21,700
{\an8}which means that from a rational standpoint,

1019
00:51:21,700 --> 00:51:24,050
{\an8}if your concern is safety, and there are other concerns,

1020
00:51:24,050 --> 00:51:27,100
but people's main concern seems to be about safety,

1021
00:51:27,100 --> 00:51:29,330
it makes sense to take the self-driving car.

1022
00:51:29,330 --> 00:51:31,500
But if you have irrational calculations

1023
00:51:31,500 --> 00:51:34,610
about how much more safe it'll make you in particular,

1024
00:51:34,610 --> 00:51:37,331
that could make you elect the less safe option

1025
00:51:37,331 --> 00:51:39,775
of deciding to drive yourself, and as a result,

1026
00:51:39,775 --> 00:51:41,940
if many people do that, then we lose out

1027
00:51:41,940 --> 00:51:43,190
on all sorts of safety benefits

1028
00:51:43,190 --> 00:51:44,840
that the self-driving cars bring.

1029
00:51:46,990 --> 00:51:48,740
We don't give it a second thought when we step

1030
00:51:48,740 --> 00:51:50,200
into an airplane, but a car is something

1031
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,090
that we're used to being in control of, right?

1032
00:51:53,090 --> 00:51:55,350
So I think we have a higher bar

1033
00:51:55,350 --> 00:51:57,880
because we're asking them to step back,

1034
00:51:57,880 --> 00:51:59,790
give up control on something

1035
00:51:59,790 --> 00:52:02,390
that you've always been used to being in control of.

1036
00:52:04,180 --> 00:52:07,900
My husband and my son love roller coasters. I'm not a fan.

1037
00:52:07,900 --> 00:52:11,070
I get in a roller coaster, and my heart beats really fast,

1038
00:52:11,070 --> 00:52:13,130
and I get a sick feeling in my stomach,

1039
00:52:13,130 --> 00:52:15,480
and I just wanna close my eyes and make it go away.

1040
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:16,880
Where they do this, right?

1041
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:18,770
And I think self-driving cars are that way, too.

1042
00:52:18,770 --> 00:52:21,530
I think some people just like anything new,

1043
00:52:21,530 --> 00:52:22,610
and I think as we get older,

1044
00:52:22,610 --> 00:52:24,933
we get more fearful of new experiences.

1045
00:52:26,590 --> 00:52:29,130
My experience has been that before getting

1046
00:52:29,130 --> 00:52:31,573
in a self-driving vehicle, people doubt it.

1047
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:34,630
They think there must be smoke and mirrors.

1048
00:52:34,630 --> 00:52:36,090
Could I ever really be comfortable

1049
00:52:36,090 --> 00:52:38,690
in a car that's driving itself?

1050
00:52:38,690 --> 00:52:40,240
And the amazing thing is,

1051
00:52:40,240 --> 00:52:42,384
after a couple of minutes, they are.

1052
00:52:42,384 --> 00:52:43,217
(man laughs)

1053
00:52:43,217 --> 00:52:45,380
You know it. It was fabulous.

1054
00:52:45,380 --> 00:52:48,600
The problem with that is that none of these systems

1055
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,790
are up to human performance.

1056
00:52:50,790 --> 00:52:53,360
But very quickly, the driver in the vehicle

1057
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,960
will trust them, and they'll trust them too much.

1058
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,310
And you know, it always works, I've been using it

1059
00:52:59,310 --> 00:53:02,960
for a month, every day, it handles this bit of road fine.

1060
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,900
{\an8}And then, you know, month and a day,

1061
00:53:05,900 --> 00:53:07,233
{\an8}and a bad thing happens.

1062
00:53:09,170 --> 00:53:10,960
The most predictable thing in the world

1063
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:12,390
was that a self-driving car was eventually

1064
00:53:12,390 --> 00:53:14,330
{\an8}gonna kill someone.

1065
00:53:14,330 --> 00:53:17,140
{\an8}Uber today put the breaks on all road testing

1066
00:53:17,140 --> 00:53:20,380
{\an8}of its self-driving cars after a deadly accident.

1067
00:53:20,380 --> 00:53:22,010
A pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona

1068
00:53:22,010 --> 00:53:25,290
was killed last night by a self-driving Uber taxi.

1069
00:53:25,290 --> 00:53:27,830
It is believed to be the first pedestrian fatality

1070
00:53:27,830 --> 00:53:30,090
caused by an autonomous vehicle.

1071
00:53:30,090 --> 00:53:32,540
It happened earlier than most people thought,

1072
00:53:32,540 --> 00:53:34,200
but the second-most predictable thing in the world

1073
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:35,570
was that people were gonna over-react to it.

1074
00:53:35,570 --> 00:53:37,120
And they did.

1075
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,380
Developing news, a letter just sent to us

1076
00:53:39,380 --> 00:53:41,000
by the governor's office,

1077
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,580
{\an8}asking the Arizona Department of Transportation

1078
00:53:43,580 --> 00:53:48,580
{\an8}to suspend Uber's self-driving cars in Arizona.

1079
00:53:48,580 --> 00:53:49,810
{\an8}So one of the things that makes me crazy

1080
00:53:49,810 --> 00:53:51,770
{\an8}is when people say the new technology

1081
00:53:51,770 --> 00:53:53,610
{\an8}has to be as safe as human drivers.

1082
00:53:53,610 --> 00:53:56,960
We really suck right now at being human drivers.

1083
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:01,960
We're killing 37,461 people a year. That's not okay.

1084
00:54:02,050 --> 00:54:05,090
If we can find anything, any tool that's gonna help us

1085
00:54:05,090 --> 00:54:06,850
save those lives and prevent more injuries,

1086
00:54:06,850 --> 00:54:07,991
we should be doing that.

1087
00:54:07,991 --> 00:54:09,370
(gentle music)

1088
00:54:09,370 --> 00:54:11,310
I look at autonomous vehicles as probably

1089
00:54:11,310 --> 00:54:14,150
one of the more transformational, exciting new technologies

1090
00:54:14,150 --> 00:54:15,910
that we've seen come along in a long time.

1091
00:54:15,910 --> 00:54:18,130
We have a piece of legislation out of the Commerce Committee

1092
00:54:18,130 --> 00:54:19,490
that we hope will be considered

1093
00:54:19,490 --> 00:54:21,540
in the full Senate here soon.

1094
00:54:21,540 --> 00:54:25,320
Yeah, this technology is transformative.

1095
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:27,740
You can call it disruptive or creative.

1096
00:54:27,740 --> 00:54:29,015
It is all of those things.

1097
00:54:29,015 --> 00:54:32,010
In fact, I believe it is the biggest thing to happen

1098
00:54:32,010 --> 00:54:33,780
to the auto industry since the first car

1099
00:54:33,780 --> 00:54:35,870
came off of the assembly line.

1100
00:54:35,870 --> 00:54:38,780
The AV Start Act that I'm working on with Senator Thune

1101
00:54:38,780 --> 00:54:43,550
{\an8}as bipartisan legislation, is designed to be able to create

1102
00:54:43,550 --> 00:54:46,540
{\an8}the regulatory flexibility necessary to allow

1103
00:54:46,540 --> 00:54:48,940
{\an8}the innovation to move forward,

1104
00:54:48,940 --> 00:54:51,820
while also considering that safety is always paramount.

1105
00:54:51,820 --> 00:54:53,880
We have thought long and hard about making sure

1106
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:56,820
that safety is first and foremost in this legislation,

1107
00:54:56,820 --> 00:54:58,670
making sure that we're trying to find that middle ground

1108
00:54:58,670 --> 00:55:02,560
to allow innovation to flourish but also being careful

1109
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:04,640
about making sure these vehicles meet standards

1110
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,220
before they get out onto the road.

1111
00:55:06,220 --> 00:55:09,130
One of the challenges here is that we have a lot

1112
00:55:09,130 --> 00:55:13,430
of traditional, reactive ways of thinking about auto safety.

1113
00:55:13,430 --> 00:55:15,550
{\an8}You wait until somebody dies or gets hurt,

1114
00:55:15,550 --> 00:55:17,960
{\an8}and then you go and figure out was there a defect,

1115
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:19,450
{\an8}what happened, et cetera.

1116
00:55:19,450 --> 00:55:21,367
That typically means let's regulate.

1117
00:55:21,367 --> 00:55:24,460
{\an8}The Department of Transportation prefers to avoid

1118
00:55:24,460 --> 00:55:28,120
{\an8}a patchwork of different approaches

1119
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:32,450
{\an8}by encouraging interoperability of standards,

1120
00:55:32,450 --> 00:55:35,660
{\an8}and consistent rules, while respecting

1121
00:55:35,660 --> 00:55:38,490
{\an8}the role of state and local governments.

1122
00:55:38,490 --> 00:55:40,040
{\an8}The regulatory bodies,

1123
00:55:40,040 --> 00:55:42,980
{\an8}they do not wanna legislate innovation.

1124
00:55:42,980 --> 00:55:46,410
They want the car makers to find the best technology,

1125
00:55:46,410 --> 00:55:49,800
{\an8}and then they'll figure out the regulations around it.

1126
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,610
{\an8}Automated features are becoming increasingly common

1127
00:55:52,610 --> 00:55:55,670
{\an8}in our cars, but we still have a long way to go

1128
00:55:55,670 --> 00:56:00,360
to reach full automation, Level 5 as SAE would call it.

1129
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,730
The Society of Automotive Engineers

1130
00:56:02,730 --> 00:56:05,820
has these levels of autonomy.

1131
00:56:05,820 --> 00:56:09,760
Level 0 is just a purely analog car.

1132
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:13,290
Level 5 is where the vehicle drives itself,

1133
00:56:13,290 --> 00:56:16,340
doesn't even need a steering wheel or pedals.

1134
00:56:16,340 --> 00:56:18,440
Unlike rules for the design of a seatbelt

1135
00:56:18,440 --> 00:56:20,300
or airbag, the federal guidelines

1136
00:56:20,300 --> 00:56:23,190
{\an8}for automated vehicle systems are voluntary.

1137
00:56:23,190 --> 00:56:25,500
{\an8}The U.S. Department of Transportation says

1138
00:56:25,500 --> 00:56:27,380
{\an8}mandatory regulations could delay

1139
00:56:27,380 --> 00:56:30,690
{\an8}getting life-saving automated systems on the road.

1140
00:56:30,690 --> 00:56:33,160
{\an8}The regulatory environment around driverless cars

1141
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:34,900
{\an8}right now is the Wild West.

1142
00:56:34,900 --> 00:56:36,810
{\an8}Yeah, sure, it's the Wild West.

1143
00:56:36,810 --> 00:56:40,240
{\an8}I think that we should try to make it as wild as possible.

1144
00:56:40,240 --> 00:56:42,080
{\an8}In the battle to dominate the future

1145
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,500
{\an8}of self-driving cars, Uber and Google

1146
00:56:44,500 --> 00:56:46,200
{\an8}were on a collision course.

1147
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:47,280
Will it get ugly? Yeah.

1148
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:48,740
But I think we want it to get ugly.

1149
00:56:48,740 --> 00:56:50,900
I mean, there's no way around the ugliness.

1150
00:56:50,900 --> 00:56:54,300
It's one of Silicon Valley's most anticipated court cases.

1151
00:56:54,300 --> 00:56:56,270
{\an8}The outcome could determine the future

1152
00:56:56,270 --> 00:56:58,400
{\an8}of autonomous car technology.

1153
00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:00,120
Will there be a patent war? Well, of course.

1154
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:02,860
But is it just a necessary part of the stage?

1155
00:57:02,860 --> 00:57:05,840
{\an8}Uber will pay $245 million

1156
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:08,960
{\an8}to Google's Waymo self-driving car division,

1157
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,580
{\an8}settling a legal dispute over trade secrets.

1158
00:57:11,580 --> 00:57:15,000
The problem of perfecting these kinds of systems

1159
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,840
is hard enough that you wouldn't wanna discourage

1160
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:20,300
anyone from taking a crack at it.

1161
00:57:20,300 --> 00:57:23,450
The international competition is intense.

1162
00:57:23,450 --> 00:57:25,540
You're seeing big pushes from Europe,

1163
00:57:25,540 --> 00:57:27,340
from Japan, from Singapore.

1164
00:57:27,340 --> 00:57:30,010
The Chinese are weighing in with everything,

1165
00:57:30,010 --> 00:57:33,320
because I think most folks realize that when AI systems

1166
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,530
can take that automobile through a very complex environment,

1167
00:57:36,530 --> 00:57:39,490
that means artificial intelligence is ready for prime time.

1168
00:57:39,490 --> 00:57:42,010
For every single industry, you can imagine,

1169
00:57:42,010 --> 00:57:44,240
it'll transform the private sector,

1170
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:46,680
it's gonna transform the military sector.

1171
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:49,680
And so whoever gets there first with this technology

1172
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:51,030
will have a competitive advantage,

1173
00:57:51,030 --> 00:57:54,068
not just in mobility in cars, but throughout the economy.

1174
00:57:54,068 --> 00:57:56,410
{\an8}Self-driving cars, there's our future.

1175
00:57:56,410 --> 00:57:58,772
{\an8}Gonna be a lot of litigation, a lot of new technology

1176
00:57:58,772 --> 00:57:59,605
coming fast.
A lot of bumps

1177
00:57:59,605 --> 00:58:01,850
in this road, there are.
Yes, indeed.

1178
00:58:01,850 --> 00:58:03,930
Senator, when you talk about those matters of safety,

1179
00:58:03,930 --> 00:58:05,080
talk about liability.

1180
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:06,780
What happens if there's an accident?

1181
00:58:06,780 --> 00:58:08,900
Who's eventually responsible?

1182
00:58:08,900 --> 00:58:10,130
Well, those are the questions

1183
00:58:10,130 --> 00:58:12,050
that we have to try and answer,

1184
00:58:12,050 --> 00:58:14,090
and you know, you have an entirely different,

1185
00:58:14,090 --> 00:58:15,390
if you don't have a driver,

1186
00:58:15,390 --> 00:58:17,780
who is liable in a case like that?

1187
00:58:17,780 --> 00:58:19,870
Almost everyone that I've spoken to

1188
00:58:19,870 --> 00:58:22,940
{\an8}has expressed considerable skepticism and fear,

1189
00:58:22,940 --> 00:58:24,760
{\an8}and one of the bigger concerns is,

1190
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:26,820
{\an8}well, what's gonna happen when the car has an accident?

1191
00:58:26,820 --> 00:58:28,990
People are afraid that they're gonna get blamed.

1192
00:58:28,990 --> 00:58:30,482
Well, but I wasn't driving the car.

1193
00:58:30,482 --> 00:58:32,180
Why should I be at fault?

1194
00:58:32,180 --> 00:58:33,490
Well, maybe you're not gonna be at fault.

1195
00:58:33,490 --> 00:58:35,310
I mean, that's yet to be determined,

1196
00:58:35,310 --> 00:58:37,344
but I tell people all the time

1197
00:58:37,344 --> 00:58:40,860
that self-driving technology is not gonna go away.

1198
00:58:40,860 --> 00:58:43,580
We're not gonna stop making the things that are gonna

1199
00:58:43,580 --> 00:58:46,850
make the cars autonomous in the next 5 to 10 years.

1200
00:58:46,850 --> 00:58:48,290
That's gonna happen.

1201
00:58:48,290 --> 00:58:50,750
The question is how safe is safe enough?

1202
00:58:50,750 --> 00:58:53,540
What will we allow machines to do?

1203
00:58:53,540 --> 00:58:56,070
How much will we allow machines to screw up?

1204
00:58:56,070 --> 00:58:57,790
What is our threshold for that?

1205
00:58:57,790 --> 00:59:01,350
At this moment where the attention is being paid

1206
00:59:01,350 --> 00:59:06,313
to the very occasional self-driving car fatality,

1207
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:10,800
the fact that there's such a massive media coverage of those

1208
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,010
distorts people's view of how dangerous

1209
00:59:13,010 --> 00:59:15,063
these cars are now and will be.

1210
00:59:17,910 --> 00:59:20,190
If we were to see repeatedly how dangerous

1211
00:59:20,190 --> 00:59:23,850
it actually is to be a human driver, then maybe we'd have

1212
00:59:23,850 --> 00:59:26,970
a more even-keeled view of the relative danger.

1213
00:59:26,970 --> 00:59:30,500
If we covered all of those accidents at the rate

1214
00:59:30,500 --> 00:59:32,860
that we cover these accidents that involve

1215
00:59:32,860 --> 00:59:35,680
self-driving cars, we would not have room

1216
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:36,970
for anything else on TV.

1217
00:59:36,970 --> 00:59:39,553
(gentle music)

1218
00:59:44,260 --> 00:59:47,000
I guess the first accident I heard,

1219
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:50,960
{\an8}where this woman was crossing at night,

1220
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,360
{\an8}crossing the street with her bicycle.

1221
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:57,250
The driver had for some reason disabled

1222
00:59:57,250 --> 00:59:59,400
the automatic braking.
Yes.

1223
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:01,240
So-
<v ->Humans.

1224
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:05,453
It was the human frailties came to pass.

1225
01:00:06,380 --> 01:00:10,480
A complex system is one that has unintended consequences.

1226
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:14,280
That is my real concern personally

1227
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:15,313
with the self-driving cars.

1228
01:00:15,313 --> 01:00:18,380
It's not Waymo logging eight million miles

1229
01:00:18,380 --> 01:00:23,210
of nice, clear roads in Arizona, but very simple things

1230
01:00:23,210 --> 01:00:26,420
like some of the roads are still not paved.

1231
01:00:26,420 --> 01:00:29,260
And think of that white stuff in the winter.

1232
01:00:29,260 --> 01:00:31,143
What markings will help?

1233
01:00:33,353 --> 01:00:35,990
{\an8}(lively pulsating music)

1234
01:00:35,990 --> 01:00:38,210
{\an8}When I took this job, I thought,

1235
01:00:38,210 --> 01:00:40,000
{\an8}let's try something different.

1236
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,800
{\an8}And off-road driving just seemed like an obvious choice.

1237
01:00:44,630 --> 01:00:48,220
It's much harder trying to see a path through the woods.

1238
01:00:48,220 --> 01:00:50,393
It's even for a human being sometimes hard.

1239
01:00:52,210 --> 01:00:54,960
The car is autonomously following the leader vehicle.

1240
01:00:55,930 --> 01:00:58,660
The application tracks the leader vehicle

1241
01:00:58,660 --> 01:01:00,943
{\an8}based on LiDAR and camera data.

1242
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:03,644
First you follow another car,

1243
01:01:03,644 --> 01:01:06,230
then you generate your own map.

1244
01:01:06,230 --> 01:01:09,350
It just knows, okay, I went through a slight left bend,

1245
01:01:09,350 --> 01:01:11,860
and then I took a sharp right turn,

1246
01:01:11,860 --> 01:01:15,100
so it memorizes these landmarks.

1247
01:01:15,100 --> 01:01:17,740
This is the end of the teaching phase.

1248
01:01:17,740 --> 01:01:19,630
Then the car would autonomously

1249
01:01:19,630 --> 01:01:22,623
start to drive the recorded path backwards.

1250
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,290
One application of this is the rescue scenario.

1251
01:01:26,290 --> 01:01:29,210
As you can imagine, in Fukushima or in other

1252
01:01:29,210 --> 01:01:32,210
disaster scenarios where there is an environment

1253
01:01:32,210 --> 01:01:34,490
which is dangerous for people to be in,

1254
01:01:34,490 --> 01:01:37,360
it is able to move the injured people

1255
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,243
out of this area by itself.

1256
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:42,900
We typically have no maps, or very poor maps,

1257
01:01:42,900 --> 01:01:44,710
and what we need to do

1258
01:01:44,710 --> 01:01:47,500
is we need to concentrate on perception.

1259
01:01:47,500 --> 01:01:50,610
So we have a very biological approach,

1260
01:01:50,610 --> 01:01:52,318
you know, human-like approach.

1261
01:01:52,318 --> 01:01:55,735
(lively pulsating music)

1262
01:01:57,950 --> 01:02:00,760
The implication for AVs extends so far

1263
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:02,130
when we take them off-road.

1264
01:02:02,130 --> 01:02:04,150
We can think about how self-driving cars

1265
01:02:04,150 --> 01:02:06,890
open up new spaces off of the grid,

1266
01:02:06,890 --> 01:02:09,873
and putting people to work in ways they could never imagine.

1267
01:02:09,873 --> 01:02:12,456
{\an8}(upbeat music)

1268
01:02:15,750 --> 01:02:19,241
A farm is a pretty expensive business operation.

1269
01:02:19,241 --> 01:02:22,760
{\an8}Gerrish Family Farm's been in with the Gerrish family

1270
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:24,830
{\an8}for over a hundred years now.

1271
01:02:24,830 --> 01:02:29,490
We grow corn and soy beans, alfalfa, and grass-fed beef.

1272
01:02:29,490 --> 01:02:32,380
We've got some honey bees, a few chickens,

1273
01:02:32,380 --> 01:02:36,290
{\an8}and fish, a lot of fish. (laughs)

1274
01:02:36,290 --> 01:02:38,880
My father just works 18 hours a day,

1275
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:40,890
because farming's his passion.

1276
01:02:40,890 --> 01:02:42,687
Well I've talked to some of our farmer friends,

1277
01:02:42,687 --> 01:02:44,490
and the reason they said they farm

1278
01:02:44,490 --> 01:02:46,320
is 'cause they love to drive tractors.

1279
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,600
Well, I like to drive the tractor, but I'm okay

1280
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,890
with not doing it that many hours a day,

1281
01:02:50,890 --> 01:02:53,250
and I can't find anybody to do it.

1282
01:02:53,250 --> 01:02:55,740
He's a creative guy, and he actually went

1283
01:02:55,740 --> 01:02:58,010
and took the grandkids to the LEGO store

1284
01:02:58,010 --> 01:03:00,890
and just got a ton of bricks and poured 'em out on the table

1285
01:03:00,890 --> 01:03:02,700
and told the kids, "Build a robot

1286
01:03:02,700 --> 01:03:04,280
that would help Poppy on the farm."

1287
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:07,450
And those were literally used to go talk to universities

1288
01:03:07,450 --> 01:03:09,960
and entrepreneurs to say, this is what

1289
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:11,780
an eight-year-old came up with.

1290
01:03:11,780 --> 01:03:12,823
What can you do?

1291
01:03:14,310 --> 01:03:17,060
We created this challenge where you had to come in

1292
01:03:17,060 --> 01:03:20,440
with the autonomous vehicle, didn't care what it was,

1293
01:03:20,440 --> 01:03:23,750
car, truck, ATV, tractor, whatever,

1294
01:03:23,750 --> 01:03:26,430
to plant autonomously the first year,

1295
01:03:26,430 --> 01:03:28,523
to weed and feed the second year,

1296
01:03:28,523 --> 01:03:30,273
and then to harvest the third year.

1297
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:35,270
You start bringing these young people in

1298
01:03:35,270 --> 01:03:37,370
that have never even been involved in agriculture

1299
01:03:37,370 --> 01:03:38,830
and they're like, "Well why don't we do this,

1300
01:03:38,830 --> 01:03:40,370
or why don't we do that?"

1301
01:03:40,370 --> 01:03:43,070
So the cross-fertilization of ideas

1302
01:03:43,070 --> 01:03:45,700
helped build the challenge.

1303
01:03:45,700 --> 01:03:47,010
I don't think we could've done it

1304
01:03:47,010 --> 01:03:49,940
until they said we can drive automatic cars, right?

1305
01:03:49,940 --> 01:03:52,380
Once people started reading that, I'm like, okay,

1306
01:03:52,380 --> 01:03:54,180
all we got to do is go back and forth in a field.

1307
01:03:54,180 --> 01:03:56,770
That's different than up and down a highway.

1308
01:03:56,770 --> 01:03:58,420
Through the agBOT Challenge we were looking

1309
01:03:58,420 --> 01:04:01,710
for developing a farmer-centric solution

1310
01:04:01,710 --> 01:04:03,373
so that we're smarter farmers.

1311
01:04:04,310 --> 01:04:07,280
So we've got two choices right now in our society.

1312
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:09,940
We can take a fear-mongering thing and say,

1313
01:04:09,940 --> 01:04:11,930
oh my God, we're gonna lose jobs.

1314
01:04:11,930 --> 01:04:14,040
These agbots are gonna take over all the farmers

1315
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:16,290
and make 'em slaves, or we can say,

1316
01:04:16,290 --> 01:04:19,010
what if we could really do all of this stuff

1317
01:04:19,010 --> 01:04:21,470
and free ourselves to do it better?

1318
01:04:21,470 --> 01:04:23,840
And so the opportunities there are just unlimited

1319
01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:26,430
for the United States and other countries.

1320
01:04:26,430 --> 01:04:28,853
The future's just beautiful with automation.

1321
01:04:30,300 --> 01:04:32,740
Think about taking all the domain intelligence

1322
01:04:32,740 --> 01:04:34,880
of all of the farmers in the world

1323
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:38,230
and delivering a four-row agbot to people

1324
01:04:38,230 --> 01:04:40,920
with a second-grade education in Africa

1325
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:42,670
to grow their own food.

1326
01:04:42,670 --> 01:04:45,003
I'm excited about that. That will happen.

1327
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:51,730
I can imagine a situation where the city of Los Angeles

1328
01:04:51,730 --> 01:04:54,980
would say let's tailor an autonomous car system

1329
01:04:54,980 --> 01:04:57,420
to serve a social and economic function,

1330
01:04:57,420 --> 01:04:59,680
to remove the transportation burden

1331
01:04:59,680 --> 01:05:02,900
from the bottom economic strata of our society.

1332
01:05:02,900 --> 01:05:04,210
If all we're doing is creating

1333
01:05:04,210 --> 01:05:06,693
another toy for rich people, so what?

1334
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:09,590
But if the real payoff is it's a way

1335
01:05:09,590 --> 01:05:12,840
to create a really cost-effective, efficient

1336
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:16,900
mass transit system, then I would love to see that.

1337
01:05:16,900 --> 01:05:18,430
If that's what it'll look like in the end,

1338
01:05:18,430 --> 01:05:20,313
{\an8}I'd be the happiest person in the world.

1339
01:05:24,997 --> 01:05:27,550
(gentle music)

1340
01:05:27,550 --> 01:05:30,090
Every morning when I head off to my office at MIT,

1341
01:05:30,090 --> 01:05:33,780
I head out to the bus stop, get on the bus.

1342
01:05:33,780 --> 01:05:36,493
It's about a 20-minute ride.

1343
01:05:37,890 --> 01:05:41,170
There's a set of railroad tracks before you get to MIT.

1344
01:05:41,170 --> 01:05:42,780
I wait for the bus to hit those tracks,

1345
01:05:42,780 --> 01:05:44,563
and I know my stop is next.

1346
01:05:45,570 --> 01:05:48,080
If you're a sighted person, you don't have to do that.

1347
01:05:48,080 --> 01:05:51,160
{\an8}But I use all kinds of tricks.

1348
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,360
{\an8}Everybody's got a different voice.

1349
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:55,370
Now, other people don't have to think about that,

1350
01:05:55,370 --> 01:05:57,670
'cause they use facial recognition.

1351
01:05:57,670 --> 01:06:00,300
I use voice recognition.

1352
01:06:00,300 --> 01:06:01,133
Paul?

1353
01:06:02,220 --> 01:06:03,870
Oh my gosh, is that Ray?

1354
01:06:04,939 --> 01:06:06,000
What are you doing, waiting for the bus?

1355
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:08,570
Yeah, absolutely. I'm waiting for the damn bus.

1356
01:06:08,570 --> 01:06:10,510
Today you're not gonna take the bus to work.

1357
01:06:10,510 --> 01:06:11,343
Why not, man? I always take the bus.

1358
01:06:11,343 --> 01:06:13,511
Well, because you're gonna drive to work.

1359
01:06:13,511 --> 01:06:15,110
Woo-hoo! You're kidding.

1360
01:06:15,110 --> 01:06:16,740
You're gonna drive.
<v ->I'm ready,

1361
01:06:16,740 --> 01:06:18,191
but I left my license at home.

1362
01:06:18,191 --> 01:06:19,024
That's all right, that's all right.

1363
01:06:19,024 --> 01:06:20,210
I'll be sitting in the backseat

1364
01:06:20,210 --> 01:06:21,990
with my football helmet on.

1365
01:06:21,990 --> 01:06:24,300
Yeah. Just in case.

1366
01:06:24,300 --> 01:06:25,988
All right, here we go.
<v ->Okay.

1367
01:06:25,988 --> 01:06:28,571
(upbeat music)

1368
01:06:32,010 --> 01:06:33,940
We are in self-driving mode.

1369
01:06:33,940 --> 01:06:36,320
Woo! First time for me.

1370
01:06:36,320 --> 01:06:38,940
{\an8}So who's controlling the acceleration? Is that you, Teddy?

1371
01:06:38,940 --> 01:06:41,480
{\an8}I've got my feet off the pedals, hands in the air.

1372
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:43,228
So the car's deciding how fast it should go.

1373
01:06:43,228 --> 01:06:44,590
Car's deciding how fast it should go

1374
01:06:44,590 --> 01:06:45,740
based on how straight

1375
01:06:45,740 --> 01:06:47,289
the road is.
Oh, those trees!

1376
01:06:47,289 --> 01:06:48,845
(men laughing)

1377
01:06:48,845 --> 01:06:50,140
Paul, it's a good thing you can't see me.

1378
01:06:50,140 --> 01:06:51,205
You'd be terrified.

1379
01:06:51,205 --> 01:06:53,509
(men laughing)

1380
01:06:53,509 --> 01:06:54,342
But if you look at the screen,

1381
01:06:54,342 --> 01:06:55,870
you can see how far ahead the laser sees.

1382
01:06:55,870 --> 01:06:57,310
Doesn't that inspire some confidence?

1383
01:06:57,310 --> 01:06:59,060
It does. It's great.

1384
01:06:59,060 --> 01:07:00,310
And it's looking behind us, too.

1385
01:07:00,310 --> 01:07:01,980
I'm not looking behind us.

1386
01:07:01,980 --> 01:07:04,820
Can you estimate how far ahead of us it's-

1387
01:07:04,820 --> 01:07:06,600
It's able to see about 300 feet.

1388
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:08,593
Wow.
<v ->Yeah I know, all directions.

1389
01:07:09,540 --> 01:07:12,260
For people who are unable to drive

1390
01:07:12,260 --> 01:07:16,290
and have to rely on other modes of transportation,

1391
01:07:16,290 --> 01:07:19,370
the new technology with autonomous cars

1392
01:07:19,370 --> 01:07:23,580
really adds a significant degree of liberation,

1393
01:07:23,580 --> 01:07:25,513
I would call it, and independence.

1394
01:07:26,850 --> 01:07:29,250
Can I touch the wheel to feel it moving,

1395
01:07:29,250 --> 01:07:30,490
or is that gonna?

1396
01:07:33,758 --> 01:07:36,370
Can you feel it?
<v ->Oh, wow, that's so cool.

1397
01:07:36,370 --> 01:07:40,863
To feel the wheel move and the car respond,

1398
01:07:42,090 --> 01:07:43,723
yeah, that is very cool.

1399
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:47,060
I've got a whole new level of control

1400
01:07:47,060 --> 01:07:49,480
that I never would've had before.

1401
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:51,980
And I think autonomous vehicles

1402
01:07:51,980 --> 01:07:55,860
bring that opportunity to a whole other level

1403
01:07:55,860 --> 01:07:59,240
where one day I'm gonna call my friend Ray

1404
01:07:59,240 --> 01:08:01,070
and say I'm gonna come over, pick you up,

1405
01:08:01,070 --> 01:08:02,960
and we're going out to dinner.

1406
01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:04,630
Now, I hesitate to ask with this,

1407
01:08:04,630 --> 01:08:07,006
that big red button, what is that?

1408
01:08:07,006 --> 01:08:08,200
Is that the kill switch?

1409
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:10,070
That's if the robot rebels.

1410
01:08:10,070 --> 01:08:11,950
Oh, robot rebellion, I've heard of that.

1411
01:08:11,950 --> 01:08:13,280
We hit that, we get full control,

1412
01:08:13,280 --> 01:08:16,440
the car goes back to being like a regular Prius,

1413
01:08:16,440 --> 01:08:18,283
and the robots can't do any harm.

1414
01:08:19,190 --> 01:08:20,640
Do no harm, that's important.

1415
01:08:22,980 --> 01:08:25,640
So one of the interesting things about self-driving cars

1416
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:30,640
{\an8}is that not only do we outsource our driving capability

1417
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:32,900
{\an8}to the cars, but we have to outsource

1418
01:08:32,900 --> 01:08:35,520
{\an8}some of the moral decisions that we make as human drivers.

1419
01:08:35,520 --> 01:08:38,000
Now, it's not obvious to people that they are making

1420
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:39,240
moral decisions when they drive,

1421
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:41,739
but in any number of small maneuvers that we make,

1422
01:08:41,739 --> 01:08:44,490
we are actually making moral decisions

1423
01:08:44,490 --> 01:08:46,210
about where we're gonna distribute risk

1424
01:08:46,210 --> 01:08:49,270
between the various stakeholders on the road.

1425
01:08:49,270 --> 01:08:53,930
However, because self-driving cars need to be programmed,

1426
01:08:53,930 --> 01:08:56,540
those types of values, those types of moral decisions,

1427
01:08:56,540 --> 01:08:59,450
have to be baked into the algorithms themselves,

1428
01:08:59,450 --> 01:09:01,870
which means that we now have to explicitly decide

1429
01:09:01,870 --> 01:09:04,313
what we want cars to do in those situations.

1430
01:09:05,570 --> 01:09:08,320
These kind of moral trade-offs are often exemplified

1431
01:09:08,320 --> 01:09:10,630
with these stylized thought problems,

1432
01:09:10,630 --> 01:09:12,050
and the most famous of these

1433
01:09:12,050 --> 01:09:14,140
is probably the trolley problem.

1434
01:09:14,140 --> 01:09:16,160
In the trolley problem, you have a runaway trolley

1435
01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:17,610
that's barreling down a track,

1436
01:09:17,610 --> 01:09:21,120
and as it's directed right now, it can't stop,

1437
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:23,760
and it's going to go down a track

1438
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:26,810
where there are five workers working on the track.

1439
01:09:26,810 --> 01:09:30,130
But there's a fork, where it could go

1440
01:09:30,130 --> 01:09:32,770
on a different track and run over one person.

1441
01:09:32,770 --> 01:09:36,570
But you are off to the side where you can pull the lever

1442
01:09:36,570 --> 01:09:39,040
to switch the fork, so you can make the decision

1443
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:40,820
about whether the car is gonna go on the track

1444
01:09:40,820 --> 01:09:42,820
and kill five people or kill one person.

1445
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:45,600
So what do you do in this situation?

1446
01:09:46,700 --> 01:09:50,200
{\an8}Human beings are terrible at the trolley problem, okay?

1447
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:52,290
{\an8}When we feel panicked because we're about

1448
01:09:52,290 --> 01:09:56,040
{\an8}to have an accident, we do random things,

1449
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:58,520
counterproductive things, stupid things.

1450
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,950
{\an8}Because these self-driving cars are much better

1451
01:10:01,950 --> 01:10:03,300
{\an8}defensive drivers than people are

1452
01:10:03,300 --> 01:10:04,857
{\an8}and they're paying attention the whole time,

1453
01:10:04,857 --> 01:10:07,580
{\an8}they shouldn't ever end up in a trolley car situation.

1454
01:10:07,580 --> 01:10:09,820
It just shouldn't come up.

1455
01:10:09,820 --> 01:10:11,330
When a human being is at the wheel,

1456
01:10:11,330 --> 01:10:13,500
we have no idea what they're gonna do.

1457
01:10:13,500 --> 01:10:16,940
So why would a programmed evaluation of that

1458
01:10:16,940 --> 01:10:20,770
in any way be more scary than a person doing it?

1459
01:10:20,770 --> 01:10:24,650
I think this really speaks not to a real technological issue

1460
01:10:24,650 --> 01:10:27,513
but rather to this empathy issue that we worry about,

1461
01:10:27,513 --> 01:10:29,560
that we can empathize with a person

1462
01:10:29,560 --> 01:10:32,620
that panics at the wheel and runs over someone.

1463
01:10:32,620 --> 01:10:35,920
It's hard to empathize with a machine making a decision.

1464
01:10:35,920 --> 01:10:37,590
My programmers told me this life

1465
01:10:37,590 --> 01:10:40,620
is worth more than that one, so I'll take that one.

1466
01:10:40,620 --> 01:10:41,690
Decisions that are made

1467
01:10:41,690 --> 01:10:44,500
by the algorithms become moralized.

1468
01:10:44,500 --> 01:10:46,960
We bake our values into the algorithms, and we have to.

1469
01:10:46,960 --> 01:10:48,460
There's no other way to do it.

1470
01:10:50,060 --> 01:10:52,570
Can we program these algorithms

1471
01:10:52,570 --> 01:10:54,390
to make their own moral decisions?

1472
01:10:54,390 --> 01:10:56,690
{\an8}Well, that's a much more complicated question.

1473
01:11:02,640 --> 01:11:05,890
(speaking in Japanese)

1474
01:11:36,921 --> 01:11:39,504
(gentle music)

1475
01:11:45,652 --> 01:11:48,902
(speaking in Japanese)

1476
01:12:43,009 --> 01:12:45,592
(upbeat music)

1477
01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:50,400
I object to the use of the term autonomous

1478
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:51,730
to describe self-driving cars

1479
01:12:51,730 --> 01:12:53,697
because they're not autonomous.

1480
01:12:53,697 --> 01:12:55,360
The autonomous vehicle is the vehicle

1481
01:12:55,360 --> 01:12:56,733
that you drive yourself.

1482
01:12:58,100 --> 01:12:59,200
It's what we have now.

1483
01:13:00,238 --> 01:13:02,810
What we're conceiving of are cars

1484
01:13:02,810 --> 01:13:05,853
that are the opposite of autonomous, that are connected.

1485
01:13:08,156 --> 01:13:10,310
For generations driving was one of those things

1486
01:13:10,310 --> 01:13:13,610
that we were required to master, and once you'd mastered,

1487
01:13:13,610 --> 01:13:18,109
it gave you the satisfaction that you had achieved that.

1488
01:13:18,109 --> 01:13:19,900
You were to learn how to work a stick-shift

1489
01:13:19,900 --> 01:13:21,410
and learn how to parallel park.

1490
01:13:21,410 --> 01:13:23,980
These were sort of annoying or even intimidating

1491
01:13:23,980 --> 01:13:25,670
when you're doing them for the first time,

1492
01:13:25,670 --> 01:13:28,890
but after a while, they gave you satisfaction.

1493
01:13:28,890 --> 01:13:32,430
Mastery and pleasure are two sides of the same coin.

1494
01:13:32,430 --> 01:13:34,770
It's where pleasure comes from.

1495
01:13:34,770 --> 01:13:36,890
If Malcolm wants to parallel park all day,

1496
01:13:36,890 --> 01:13:39,220
and that's how he sort of gets his rocks off,

1497
01:13:39,220 --> 01:13:42,010
amazing, but he won't have to sit in traffic

1498
01:13:42,010 --> 01:13:44,610
and do the other parts that he's less interested in.

1499
01:13:44,610 --> 01:13:46,900
The day-to-day grind will be replaced

1500
01:13:46,900 --> 01:13:49,550
with something that's frankly far, far more pleasant.

1501
01:13:50,610 --> 01:13:52,760
Self-driving cars are going to change

1502
01:13:52,760 --> 01:13:54,400
the way our cities function.

1503
01:13:54,400 --> 01:13:57,580
They're going to change how we relate to each other.

1504
01:13:57,580 --> 01:13:59,490
But if we don't educate people

1505
01:13:59,490 --> 01:14:03,000
who are going to benefit or be hurt by this technology,

1506
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:05,050
then we're really missing the whole point

1507
01:14:05,050 --> 01:14:07,657
of why we're doing it in the first place.

1508
01:14:07,657 --> 01:14:08,810
This is a really important technology,

1509
01:14:08,810 --> 01:14:11,100
but we have to be thoughtful about making sure

1510
01:14:11,100 --> 01:14:14,100
that we're not rushing to bring it to market

1511
01:14:14,100 --> 01:14:15,710
before it really is ready.

1512
01:14:15,710 --> 01:14:17,300
I want it to be at least as good

1513
01:14:17,300 --> 01:14:19,720
as human drivers that are on the road.

1514
01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:22,320
I think society will recognize

1515
01:14:23,908 --> 01:14:27,080
that the technology of autonomous vehicle

1516
01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:30,218
will be a benefit to mankind.

1517
01:14:30,218 --> 01:14:32,463
The most important thing is safety.

1518
01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:35,590
I sure worry about my kids driving.

1519
01:14:35,590 --> 01:14:37,410
I sure worry about their safety.

1520
01:14:37,410 --> 01:14:40,900
I sure am paranoid every time they get behind the wheel.

1521
01:14:40,900 --> 01:14:42,960
Would I love a world with no accidents

1522
01:14:42,960 --> 01:14:44,030
where they're totally safe?

1523
01:14:44,030 --> 01:14:45,290
Yeah, I think that's worth it.

1524
01:14:45,290 --> 01:14:48,710
But how do you maintain control of that technology?

1525
01:14:48,710 --> 01:14:53,710
How do you preserve your own agency within that technology?

1526
01:14:53,740 --> 01:14:55,680
We've been promised that technology

1527
01:14:55,680 --> 01:14:58,280
was gonna set us free, give us more leisure time.

1528
01:14:58,280 --> 01:14:59,293
Has that happened?

1529
01:15:00,280 --> 01:15:03,600
Could it go bad? Sure, it can go bad.

1530
01:15:03,600 --> 01:15:05,630
But every technology is like that.

1531
01:15:05,630 --> 01:15:07,590
Fire can be used to make weapons.

1532
01:15:07,590 --> 01:15:10,000
It can be used to cook food and heat our homes.

1533
01:15:10,000 --> 01:15:12,580
But I don't want to limit in any way the technology

1534
01:15:12,580 --> 01:15:14,800
just because we're afraid of the bad uses.

1535
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:18,293
We should use those fears to make sure that we use it well.

1536
01:15:19,690 --> 01:15:23,010
There's a long history of people being

1537
01:15:23,010 --> 01:15:26,490
almost comically suspicious of technologies as they emerge.

1538
01:15:26,490 --> 01:15:30,470
We have this status quo bias. We're used to what exists now.

1539
01:15:30,470 --> 01:15:33,220
But if we stuck with the status quo,

1540
01:15:33,220 --> 01:15:35,760
we would not have airplanes, or elevators,

1541
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:37,650
or the printing press, or writing.

1542
01:15:37,650 --> 01:15:39,730
I know the self-driving technology

1543
01:15:39,730 --> 01:15:41,030
seems very foreign to folks,

1544
01:15:41,030 --> 01:15:42,620
and it's very difficult to conceive

1545
01:15:42,620 --> 01:15:45,040
getting into an automobile and have it take you

1546
01:15:45,040 --> 01:15:48,160
to some place without you ever touching a steering wheel.

1547
01:15:48,160 --> 01:15:50,520
But that technology has the promise

1548
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:52,410
that tens of thousands of people's lives

1549
01:15:52,410 --> 01:15:54,450
will be saved in the United States every year.

1550
01:15:54,450 --> 01:15:57,743
That's a big deal. Not to develop it would be wrong.

1551
01:15:59,460 --> 01:16:01,700
I won't go down without a fight.

1552
01:16:01,700 --> 01:16:03,870
I'll be the last of a dying breed.

1553
01:16:03,870 --> 01:16:07,010
But I'd say, maybe start training for another career.

1554
01:16:07,010 --> 01:16:09,560
If you're young enough, go to night school.

1555
01:16:09,560 --> 01:16:11,450
You know, you could do online lessons

1556
01:16:11,450 --> 01:16:12,880
in your truck at night.

1557
01:16:12,880 --> 01:16:15,010
You could become a lawyer.

1558
01:16:15,010 --> 01:16:18,040
And then you can sue the autonomous trucking companies,

1559
01:16:18,040 --> 01:16:21,600
right, when they kill people. (laughs)

1560
01:16:21,600 --> 01:16:25,910
Be cautious, be vigilant, but be open,

1561
01:16:25,910 --> 01:16:29,890
because there's a chance to totally change your life.

1562
01:16:29,890 --> 01:16:33,450
Autonomous vehicles will give people the freedom

1563
01:16:33,450 --> 01:16:38,080
to go wherever they wanna go, whenever they wanna go.

1564
01:16:38,080 --> 01:16:39,410
And that's huge.

1565
01:16:39,410 --> 01:16:41,730
Beyond all of the cool things

1566
01:16:41,730 --> 01:16:43,930
about autonomous vehicles, that's important.

1567
01:16:46,409 --> 01:16:50,190
I think there are significant costs to the individual,

1568
01:16:50,190 --> 01:16:52,813
and significant benefits to society at large.

1569
01:16:54,300 --> 01:16:56,750
What is lost with driverless cars

1570
01:16:56,750 --> 01:16:58,833
is interaction with the physical world.

1571
01:16:59,770 --> 01:17:01,930
And one by one it strikes me we are stripping away

1572
01:17:01,930 --> 01:17:04,690
those traditional forms of interaction.

1573
01:17:04,690 --> 01:17:06,490
And that is not without consequence.

1574
01:17:08,738 --> 01:17:11,970
For the last 50 years, the focus of the automobile industry

1575
01:17:11,970 --> 01:17:14,950
has been to make the car accessible

1576
01:17:14,950 --> 01:17:17,273
to a broader percentage of the population.

1577
01:17:18,220 --> 01:17:19,357
It's made it possible for people

1578
01:17:19,357 --> 01:17:22,030
who don't know anything about cars to drive cars,

1579
01:17:22,030 --> 01:17:24,600
people who don't know how to fix cars to drive cars,

1580
01:17:24,600 --> 01:17:27,750
people like my mom who's benefited from incredibly

1581
01:17:27,750 --> 01:17:31,350
reliable cars, and now we're giving her a technology

1582
01:17:31,350 --> 01:17:34,380
which will allow her to drive around into her 90s.

1583
01:17:34,380 --> 01:17:36,180
That's the point of this technology.

1584
01:17:37,510 --> 01:17:41,080
This whole massive industry has been serving me

1585
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:43,930
for generations, and now they're gonna

1586
01:17:43,930 --> 01:17:45,540
not serve me in the same way anymore.

1587
01:17:45,540 --> 01:17:49,100
And that's maybe inevitable, but it breaks my heart.

1588
01:17:49,100 --> 01:17:52,640
I've been, you know, I've been at the center

1589
01:17:52,640 --> 01:17:56,350
of their dartboard for a hundred years,

1590
01:17:56,350 --> 01:17:59,961
and now I'm being replaced with a picture of my mom.

1591
01:17:59,961 --> 01:18:02,544
(upbeat music)

1592
01:18:10,410 --> 01:18:13,160
(new wave music)

1593
01:18:33,991 --> 01:18:35,442
♪ Here in my car ♪

1594
01:18:35,442 --> 01:18:37,343
♪ I feel safest of all ♪

1595
01:18:37,343 --> 01:18:39,152
♪ I can lock all my doors ♪

1596
01:18:39,152 --> 01:18:41,021
♪ It's the only way to live ♪

1597
01:18:41,021 --> 01:18:45,592
{\an8}♪ In cars ♪

1598
01:18:45,592 --> 01:18:47,011
{\an8}♪ Here in my car ♪

1599
01:18:47,011 --> 01:18:48,701
{\an8}♪ I can only receive ♪

1600
01:18:48,701 --> 01:18:50,613
{\an8}♪ I can listen to you ♪

1601
01:18:50,613 --> 01:18:52,509
{\an8}♪ It keeps me stable for days ♪

1602
01:18:52,509 --> 01:18:53,856
{\an8}♪ In cars ♪

1603
01:18:53,856 --> 01:18:56,606
{\an8}(new wave music)