1 00:00:06,740 --> 00:00:08,460 We've had some hot days this summer 2 00:00:08,460 --> 00:00:11,380 but nothing like what we're going to get into, starting tomorrow. 3 00:00:11,380 --> 00:00:15,100 Today, the mercury hit a scorching 35 degrees Celsius. 4 00:00:15,100 --> 00:00:18,340 Temperatures are set to rise even further this week and could even 5 00:00:18,340 --> 00:00:20,220 break the all-time record. 6 00:00:22,580 --> 00:00:25,820 Right now, we are facing our greatest threat 7 00:00:25,820 --> 00:00:28,140 in thousands of years. 8 00:00:29,900 --> 00:00:31,940 Climate change. 9 00:00:35,020 --> 00:00:37,660 For a long time, climate change was something that scientists 10 00:00:37,660 --> 00:00:40,060 were predicting that would happen in the future. 11 00:00:42,900 --> 00:00:44,580 But that's no longer the case. 12 00:00:44,580 --> 00:00:48,420 What we're doing right now is we're so rapidly changing 13 00:00:48,420 --> 00:00:51,780 the climate, for the first time in the world's history, 14 00:00:51,780 --> 00:00:55,340 people can see the impact of climate change. 15 00:00:55,340 --> 00:01:00,380 Greater storms, greater floods, greater heat waves, 16 00:01:00,380 --> 00:01:03,060 extreme sea level rises. 17 00:01:03,060 --> 00:01:07,860 All of this is happening far faster than many of us thought possible. 18 00:01:09,420 --> 00:01:14,620 Scientists across the globe are in no doubt that at the 19 00:01:14,620 --> 00:01:18,060 current rate of warming, we risk a devastating future. 20 00:01:19,500 --> 00:01:21,780 It's difficult to see how the population of the world 21 00:01:21,780 --> 00:01:23,540 will actually feed itself. 22 00:01:23,540 --> 00:01:25,340 It's happening in your world. 23 00:01:25,340 --> 00:01:26,820 It's happening in my world. 24 00:01:26,820 --> 00:01:28,340 Time is very short. 25 00:01:28,340 --> 00:01:32,740 There's still time but there isn't much time left. 26 00:01:32,740 --> 00:01:37,940 The science is now clear that urgent action is needed. 27 00:01:42,900 --> 00:01:44,340 We're at a tipping point. 28 00:01:44,340 --> 00:01:46,220 We can change history. 29 00:01:46,220 --> 00:01:47,700 Right now! 30 00:01:49,060 --> 00:01:53,140 What happens now, and in these next few years, 31 00:01:53,140 --> 00:01:57,700 will profoundly affect the next few thousand years. 32 00:02:00,340 --> 00:02:04,740 What can be done to avert disaster and ensure the survival 33 00:02:04,740 --> 00:02:07,620 of our civilisations... 34 00:02:10,300 --> 00:02:13,300 ..and the natural world upon which we depend? 35 00:02:22,020 --> 00:02:23,900 It's our future. 36 00:02:23,900 --> 00:02:26,060 We can't just let it slip away from us. 37 00:02:44,500 --> 00:02:50,300 Standing here in the English countryside, it may not seem obvious 38 00:02:50,300 --> 00:02:54,540 but we are facing a man-made disaster on a global scale. 39 00:02:55,980 --> 00:02:59,900 In the 20 years since I first started talking about the impact 40 00:02:59,900 --> 00:03:04,700 of climate change on our world, conditions have changed far faster 41 00:03:04,700 --> 00:03:06,980 than I ever imagined. 42 00:03:06,980 --> 00:03:10,660 It may sound frightening, but the scientific evidence is 43 00:03:10,660 --> 00:03:13,860 that if we have not taken dramatic action within the 44 00:03:13,860 --> 00:03:17,900 next decade, we could face irreversible damage 45 00:03:17,900 --> 00:03:19,740 to the natural world 46 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:22,340 and the collapse of our societies. 47 00:03:23,700 --> 00:03:27,220 We're running out of time, but there is still hope. 48 00:03:28,500 --> 00:03:32,540 I believe that if we better understand the threat we face, 49 00:03:32,540 --> 00:03:37,380 the more likely it is that we can avoid such a catastrophic future. 50 00:03:41,500 --> 00:03:45,940 Our climate is changing because of one simple fact. 51 00:03:47,140 --> 00:03:49,580 Our world is getting hotter. 52 00:03:52,180 --> 00:03:56,580 We have temperature records going back over 100 years. 53 00:03:56,580 --> 00:03:57,980 There are dips and troughs. 54 00:03:57,980 --> 00:04:01,700 There are so many years that are not as warm as other years. 55 00:04:01,700 --> 00:04:08,700 But what we've seen is this steady and unremitting temperature trend. 56 00:04:08,700 --> 00:04:11,340 20 of the warmest years on record have all occurred 57 00:04:11,340 --> 00:04:12,740 in the last 22 years. 58 00:04:14,620 --> 00:04:19,060 It's not just Met Office records that are showing this trend. 59 00:04:19,060 --> 00:04:26,580 Data from the US Climate Centre, NOAA, the Japanese Met Office 60 00:04:26,580 --> 00:04:30,820 and NASA all show the same sharp rise in temperatures. 61 00:04:32,380 --> 00:04:35,500 When scientists first became concerned about these increasing 62 00:04:35,500 --> 00:04:40,540 temperatures, nobody could be sure exactly what was driving them. 63 00:04:43,660 --> 00:04:50,140 Four decades of research later, on land, at sea, 64 00:04:50,140 --> 00:04:52,940 and in the far reaches of our atmosphere, 65 00:04:52,940 --> 00:04:55,620 the evidence is now unequivocal. 66 00:04:59,900 --> 00:05:03,220 What's striking is that warming trend cannot be explained 67 00:05:03,220 --> 00:05:05,540 by natural factors... 68 00:05:05,540 --> 00:05:07,940 but is caused by human activities. 69 00:05:09,660 --> 00:05:12,460 In particular, by use of fossil fuels. 70 00:05:17,260 --> 00:05:19,700 The problem is that everything we do, our entire economy, 71 00:05:19,700 --> 00:05:22,660 from the moment you wake up in the morning and turn on the light, 72 00:05:22,660 --> 00:05:24,900 or look at your cellphone, to the moment you go to bed 73 00:05:24,900 --> 00:05:27,020 at night, and even then because your cellphone 74 00:05:27,020 --> 00:05:29,540 is still drawing power at night, I mean, we're all using energy 75 00:05:29,540 --> 00:05:31,180 all the time. 76 00:05:31,180 --> 00:05:33,380 And in the industrialised world, that energy is almost 77 00:05:33,380 --> 00:05:35,100 entirely fossil fuels. 78 00:05:40,340 --> 00:05:45,420 When you burn fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, 79 00:05:45,420 --> 00:05:50,060 to power our energy generation, to heat our homes, 80 00:05:50,060 --> 00:05:53,940 to drive our factories, to power our cars and our trains, 81 00:05:53,940 --> 00:05:55,980 and travel around the world. 82 00:05:58,500 --> 00:06:02,420 When we burn fossil fuels, it produces carbon dioxide 83 00:06:02,420 --> 00:06:03,700 as a waste product. 84 00:06:05,860 --> 00:06:09,380 Carbon dioxide acts like a blanket. 85 00:06:09,380 --> 00:06:12,820 It absorbs the heat radiation from the Earth's surface 86 00:06:12,820 --> 00:06:17,820 and that keeps the surface warmer than it would be otherwise. 87 00:06:19,540 --> 00:06:22,780 The problem is what we're doing now is we're adding extra 88 00:06:22,780 --> 00:06:25,220 carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. 89 00:06:25,220 --> 00:06:29,060 So we're increasing the thickness of this blanket. 90 00:06:29,060 --> 00:06:33,620 Before we started to burn coal, the amount of carbon dioxide 91 00:06:33,620 --> 00:06:37,180 in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per million. 92 00:06:37,180 --> 00:06:40,860 It's now over 400 parts per million. 93 00:06:40,860 --> 00:06:43,780 And the planet gets warmer and warmer. 94 00:06:45,340 --> 00:06:50,060 We have pumped so much carbon dioxide into our atmosphere 95 00:06:50,060 --> 00:06:53,660 that our world is now around one degree Celsius hotter 96 00:06:53,660 --> 00:06:56,500 than it was in pre-industrial times. 97 00:06:57,860 --> 00:07:01,540 This warming is enough to bring about the raft of effects 98 00:07:01,540 --> 00:07:03,380 we call climate change. 99 00:07:07,260 --> 00:07:10,100 One degree Celsius global warming may not sound like much, 100 00:07:10,100 --> 00:07:12,340 but it's having a dramatic effect on our weather. 101 00:07:12,340 --> 00:07:14,940 You warm up the planet, of course you're going to get 102 00:07:14,940 --> 00:07:18,100 more intense and more frequent heat waves. 103 00:07:18,100 --> 00:07:20,020 You're going to dry out the soils. 104 00:07:20,020 --> 00:07:22,100 You're going to get worse drought. 105 00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:25,020 We're seeing extreme heat in southern Africa, 106 00:07:25,020 --> 00:07:28,580 Japan, North America, in the UK as well. 107 00:07:28,580 --> 00:07:32,820 It is officially the hottest day of the year so far. 108 00:07:34,660 --> 00:07:39,260 Often, the question is, did climate change cause a certain event? 109 00:07:39,260 --> 00:07:41,380 You can never really answer that question. 110 00:07:41,380 --> 00:07:44,220 But what scientists do is to look at whether climate change 111 00:07:44,220 --> 00:07:46,340 made a certain event more or less likely, 112 00:07:46,340 --> 00:07:48,900 or more or less intense. 113 00:07:48,900 --> 00:07:51,940 Last year, we had a heat wave that was actually the joint warmest 114 00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:55,020 on record, alongside 1976. 115 00:07:55,020 --> 00:07:58,500 And we have been analysing this here at the Met Office. 116 00:07:58,500 --> 00:08:01,780 What that showed us was that the chances of that heat wave 117 00:08:01,780 --> 00:08:03,860 had increased by about 30 times. 118 00:08:03,860 --> 00:08:07,740 So it's now about 30 times more likely that we had that heat wave 119 00:08:07,740 --> 00:08:10,220 than we would have had without climate change. 120 00:08:10,220 --> 00:08:14,060 Today, the mercury hit a scorching 35 degrees Celsius. 121 00:08:14,060 --> 00:08:16,740 So it doesn't mean to say that every single weather event 122 00:08:16,740 --> 00:08:18,740 is due to climate change. 123 00:08:18,740 --> 00:08:22,020 But what climate change does mean is that with the baseline climate 124 00:08:22,020 --> 00:08:24,420 having changed, then the frequency of the 125 00:08:24,420 --> 00:08:26,740 extreme temperatures is increasing. 126 00:08:28,620 --> 00:08:30,940 And that has a substantial effect. 127 00:08:33,780 --> 00:08:38,780 In November last year, when temperatures in Cairns, Australia, 128 00:08:38,780 --> 00:08:43,940 hit 42 degrees, even creatures specifically adapted 129 00:08:43,940 --> 00:08:46,740 to heat were unable to survive. 130 00:08:54,900 --> 00:08:56,540 They're just... 131 00:08:56,540 --> 00:08:57,940 everywhere. 132 00:09:00,420 --> 00:09:02,380 When we got here in the morning, it was the first time 133 00:09:02,380 --> 00:09:03,820 really we saw it. 134 00:09:05,500 --> 00:09:08,660 There were just dead bats as far as the eye could see. 135 00:09:10,660 --> 00:09:13,540 There was a deafening sound of babies crying. 136 00:09:14,700 --> 00:09:18,420 You just don't know where to start. 137 00:09:22,220 --> 00:09:25,140 So we just started finding babies, basically. 138 00:09:30,180 --> 00:09:33,500 There's a little baby attached to its dead mum. 139 00:09:38,620 --> 00:09:42,260 Like all species, flying foxes have ways of dealing 140 00:09:42,260 --> 00:09:45,500 with the conditions of their environment. 141 00:09:45,500 --> 00:09:49,940 But it seems their usual cooling methods are no longer enough 142 00:09:49,940 --> 00:09:54,060 for the kind of temperatures Australia is now facing. 143 00:09:54,060 --> 00:09:59,340 Last year, temperature records were broken across the country. 144 00:09:59,340 --> 00:10:03,060 Scientists have shown that it's simply inconceivable that you would 145 00:10:03,060 --> 00:10:06,980 see these temperatures without the fact of climate change. 146 00:10:09,420 --> 00:10:12,460 We saved about 350. 147 00:10:15,260 --> 00:10:17,180 The rest are dead. 148 00:10:17,180 --> 00:10:19,980 Over 11,000 died from that colony. 149 00:10:22,860 --> 00:10:25,460 And if you have two more events like we had, 150 00:10:25,460 --> 00:10:27,860 the species is gone. 151 00:10:27,860 --> 00:10:31,500 This is climate change in action. 152 00:10:33,780 --> 00:10:35,740 We need to wake up. 153 00:10:47,900 --> 00:10:51,540 I've seen for myself that in addition to the many other 154 00:10:51,540 --> 00:10:54,980 threats they face, animals of all kinds are now 155 00:10:54,980 --> 00:10:58,580 struggling to adapt to rapidly changing conditions. 156 00:11:03,060 --> 00:11:04,900 Think of the equator. 157 00:11:04,900 --> 00:11:10,580 As climate change occurs, that central part of the world 158 00:11:10,580 --> 00:11:14,300 becomes increasingly uninhabitable. 159 00:11:14,300 --> 00:11:17,700 If climate change is too fast, we're pushing them 160 00:11:17,700 --> 00:11:20,180 off the planet, in effect. 161 00:11:20,180 --> 00:11:24,060 We're causing extinction of species already. 162 00:11:24,060 --> 00:11:25,820 And that's irreversible. 163 00:11:32,740 --> 00:11:36,860 Scientists believe that 8% of species are now at threat 164 00:11:36,860 --> 00:11:40,180 of extinction solely due to climate change. 165 00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:45,740 This isn't just about losing wonders of nature. 166 00:11:45,740 --> 00:11:49,180 With the loss of even the smallest organisms, 167 00:11:49,180 --> 00:11:55,100 we destabilise and ultimately risk collapsing the world's ecosystems. 168 00:11:55,100 --> 00:11:58,860 The networks that support the whole of life on Earth. 169 00:12:00,780 --> 00:12:03,820 What's been happening in recent years is really showing us 170 00:12:03,820 --> 00:12:06,060 what one degree Celsius really means. 171 00:12:06,060 --> 00:12:08,900 Not just for wildlife, but for people, for their safety, 172 00:12:08,900 --> 00:12:11,500 for their livelihoods and for their futures. 173 00:12:14,540 --> 00:12:19,220 As temperatures rise, the threats we face multiply. 174 00:12:21,060 --> 00:12:24,660 Last year saw record-breaking wildfires take hold 175 00:12:24,660 --> 00:12:27,780 across the globe. 176 00:12:27,780 --> 00:12:30,020 Firefighters are working around the clock. 177 00:12:30,020 --> 00:12:32,300 It has to be seen to be believed. 178 00:12:32,300 --> 00:12:36,100 Australia is seeing some of its worst fires in years. 179 00:12:38,780 --> 00:12:42,260 We've seen wildfires break out in Greece, 180 00:12:42,260 --> 00:12:44,260 even in the Arctic. 181 00:12:44,260 --> 00:12:47,940 Wildfire, sweeping across some of the coldest countries on Earth. 182 00:12:47,940 --> 00:12:50,340 We've seen a tripling in the extent of wildfire 183 00:12:50,340 --> 00:12:52,740 in the western US, California. 184 00:12:56,540 --> 00:12:59,980 The fires that swept through California last year 185 00:12:59,980 --> 00:13:03,940 caused $24 billion worth of damage. 186 00:13:05,540 --> 00:13:09,020 106 people lost their lives. 187 00:13:09,020 --> 00:13:11,260 We're not just talking about an inconvenience. 188 00:13:11,260 --> 00:13:13,380 We're talking about people's lives, 189 00:13:13,380 --> 00:13:17,060 their livelihoods and their communities being damaged. 190 00:13:17,060 --> 00:13:19,820 The wildfires need an ignition source. 191 00:13:19,820 --> 00:13:22,100 What? 192 00:13:22,100 --> 00:13:25,060 Maybe cigarette butts, or lightning, and then you need 193 00:13:25,060 --> 00:13:28,580 the weather conditions that are conducive to that fire spreading. 194 00:13:28,580 --> 00:13:30,340 GASPS 195 00:13:30,340 --> 00:13:31,980 Do I go? 196 00:13:31,980 --> 00:13:33,860 I don't want to get trapped. 197 00:13:33,860 --> 00:13:38,300 Research has shown that the chances of having these very hot, 198 00:13:38,300 --> 00:13:41,300 dry conditions has increased as a result of climate change. 199 00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:45,900 Easy, easy. Oh, my God! 200 00:13:47,540 --> 00:13:48,980 Easy, easy. 201 00:13:48,980 --> 00:13:50,660 Dad, this isn't safe. 202 00:13:50,660 --> 00:13:52,900 It was a dead end road, so we knew it was our only option 203 00:13:52,900 --> 00:13:54,700 to drive forward. 204 00:13:54,700 --> 00:13:57,980 And all sides of the road just completely 205 00:13:57,980 --> 00:13:59,980 engulfed in flames. 206 00:13:59,980 --> 00:14:02,220 The car is heating up. It's going to explode! 207 00:14:02,220 --> 00:14:03,660 All right. 208 00:14:03,660 --> 00:14:05,940 He's going, "Dad, Dad, we're going to die!" 209 00:14:05,940 --> 00:14:08,500 And I said, "No, we're going to be fine, you know." 210 00:14:08,500 --> 00:14:10,340 Jesus, God help us. 211 00:14:11,380 --> 00:14:12,980 I stayed calm. 212 00:14:12,980 --> 00:14:14,900 I think being a father, you're trying to keep 213 00:14:14,900 --> 00:14:16,860 your son calm too at that point. 214 00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:21,140 We're good, we're good, we're good. 215 00:14:21,140 --> 00:14:23,540 We could hear trees literally exploding. 216 00:14:23,540 --> 00:14:25,900 Falling all around us. 217 00:14:25,900 --> 00:14:27,460 Please, God, help us. 218 00:14:27,460 --> 00:14:30,660 A large branch went right over the top of the car. 219 00:14:30,660 --> 00:14:34,860 The whole top of the roof was burning and we didn't realise it. 220 00:14:34,860 --> 00:14:36,540 There was a tree down. 221 00:14:36,540 --> 00:14:37,940 We can't get out! 222 00:14:37,940 --> 00:14:39,780 That was the moment when I really thought 223 00:14:39,780 --> 00:14:41,340 that we might die. 224 00:14:41,340 --> 00:14:43,620 Oh, my gosh! Stop! Stop! 225 00:14:43,620 --> 00:14:45,900 Let's get out of here. 226 00:14:45,900 --> 00:14:48,140 I decided to put the car in reverse. 227 00:14:48,140 --> 00:14:50,980 I had to drive backwards through everything we had already passed 228 00:14:50,980 --> 00:14:53,540 through to the lakeshore. 229 00:14:53,540 --> 00:14:56,900 This one little boat was down there watching the fire. 230 00:14:56,900 --> 00:15:01,740 And we were able to wave them in to help us get out of there. 231 00:15:01,740 --> 00:15:03,940 That, to me, was just a miracle. 232 00:15:11,300 --> 00:15:14,500 But it's not just through extreme heat events 233 00:15:14,500 --> 00:15:17,940 that climate change is having an effect. 234 00:15:17,940 --> 00:15:22,180 It's changing our weather systems in other ways. 235 00:15:25,580 --> 00:15:27,980 This is a basic result of physics. 236 00:15:27,980 --> 00:15:31,020 With a degree Celsius of warming, there's more moisture evaporating 237 00:15:31,020 --> 00:15:33,180 off the oceans. 238 00:15:33,180 --> 00:15:34,940 When there's more moisture in the air, 239 00:15:34,940 --> 00:15:36,660 you're going to get more rainfall. 240 00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:46,860 You're going to get super storms and force flooding events. 241 00:15:46,860 --> 00:15:51,100 We are seeing the impacts of climate change now play out in real time. 242 00:15:51,100 --> 00:15:52,940 They're no longer subtle. 243 00:16:00,060 --> 00:16:05,740 You have had the worst rain in China, in Japan. 244 00:16:05,740 --> 00:16:08,780 You have had a deluge in Kerala. 245 00:16:08,780 --> 00:16:11,820 The crisis deepens for hundreds of thousands in Kerala. 246 00:16:14,060 --> 00:16:17,940 Whilst they can't all be attributed to climate change, 247 00:16:17,940 --> 00:16:22,780 last year's extreme weather events meant that millions of people 248 00:16:22,780 --> 00:16:24,780 needed humanitarian aid. 249 00:16:28,020 --> 00:16:30,740 Join the dots. It's happening. 250 00:16:30,740 --> 00:16:33,980 It's happening in your world, it's happening in my world. 251 00:16:33,980 --> 00:16:39,020 And let's be very clear about this - it is going to get much worse. 252 00:16:45,340 --> 00:16:48,380 Climate change goes far beyond the weather. 253 00:16:50,020 --> 00:16:54,300 Thousands of miles away and out of sight of most of us, 254 00:16:54,300 --> 00:16:56,260 another threat is building. 255 00:16:59,980 --> 00:17:04,980 Earth's ice, frozen for millennia, is melting. 256 00:17:09,740 --> 00:17:13,180 Earth's temperature has risen by what most people would think 257 00:17:13,180 --> 00:17:15,780 is a small amount over the past century. 258 00:17:15,780 --> 00:17:17,460 One degree Centigrade. 259 00:17:17,460 --> 00:17:19,780 That's too much for the ice to withstand. 260 00:17:24,980 --> 00:17:28,860 In the last year, we've had a global assessment of ice losses 261 00:17:28,860 --> 00:17:31,060 from Antarctica and from Greenland. 262 00:17:31,060 --> 00:17:33,900 And they tell us that things are worse than we'd expected. 263 00:17:37,580 --> 00:17:40,820 The Greenland ice sheet is melting. 264 00:17:40,820 --> 00:17:43,460 It's lost four trillion tonnes of ice, 265 00:17:43,460 --> 00:17:47,700 and it's losing five times as much ice today as it was 25 years ago. 266 00:17:51,780 --> 00:17:54,780 If you go to the southern hemisphere, in the past, 267 00:17:54,780 --> 00:17:57,820 most of the models predicted that Antarctica would grow. 268 00:17:57,820 --> 00:18:00,100 That's not the case. 269 00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:02,140 Antarctica's losing three times as much ice today 270 00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:04,500 as it was 25 years ago. 271 00:18:08,260 --> 00:18:11,620 In Antarctica, really small changes in ocean temperature in particular 272 00:18:11,620 --> 00:18:13,940 melt a lot of ice. 273 00:18:13,940 --> 00:18:16,740 The ocean is only about half a degree centigrade warmer 274 00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:19,260 than it should be. 275 00:18:19,260 --> 00:18:23,420 But that's melting colossal amounts of ice from enormous glaciers. 276 00:18:29,380 --> 00:18:33,020 The water that melts from the ice sheets ends up in one place, 277 00:18:33,020 --> 00:18:34,740 and that's the oceans. 278 00:18:34,740 --> 00:18:37,460 And that's when it starts to affect people around the rest 279 00:18:37,460 --> 00:18:38,980 of the planet. 280 00:18:40,860 --> 00:18:44,460 The sea level has been stable for several thousand years. 281 00:18:46,220 --> 00:18:52,100 But if the ice sheets lose icebergs faster and faster to the ocean, 282 00:18:52,100 --> 00:18:53,940 the sea level goes up. 283 00:18:56,420 --> 00:19:00,620 We know that sea level has already risen by about 20 centimetres 284 00:19:00,620 --> 00:19:02,220 in the last 100 years. 285 00:19:10,660 --> 00:19:15,900 Rising seas are displacing hundreds of thousands of people from already 286 00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:19,940 vulnerable coastal areas in the South Pacific, 287 00:19:19,940 --> 00:19:23,340 Indonesia, Bangladesh. 288 00:19:27,740 --> 00:19:29,580 The impact on families 289 00:19:29,580 --> 00:19:31,500 is going to be something 290 00:19:31,500 --> 00:19:33,180 that I don't think 291 00:19:33,180 --> 00:19:35,580 we could ever prepare for. 292 00:19:35,580 --> 00:19:37,980 In the United States, Louisiana's on the front line 293 00:19:37,980 --> 00:19:40,060 of this climate crisis. 294 00:19:40,060 --> 00:19:44,940 It's losing land at one of the fastest rates on the planet, 295 00:19:44,940 --> 00:19:48,780 at about the rate of a football field every 45 minutes. 296 00:19:54,140 --> 00:19:58,140 The Isle de Jean Charles was once home to 400 people. 297 00:19:59,620 --> 00:20:03,220 But subsidence caused by oil and gas extraction, 298 00:20:03,220 --> 00:20:07,780 and now rising seas, means that in the last six decades 299 00:20:07,780 --> 00:20:09,740 much of it has disappeared. 300 00:20:12,060 --> 00:20:14,500 Before, this was all land. 301 00:20:17,980 --> 00:20:22,820 But due to sea-level rise, slowly but surely it's washing away. 302 00:20:35,900 --> 00:20:38,660 What we're looking at here is where I was born 303 00:20:38,660 --> 00:20:41,180 and raised, in 1946. 304 00:20:46,020 --> 00:20:47,620 It's sad. 305 00:20:47,620 --> 00:20:51,900 Very, very sad to see what happened to my mom and dad's home, 306 00:20:51,900 --> 00:20:54,180 and where they raised us at. 307 00:20:56,620 --> 00:20:59,820 I want to finish my life, as well, over here. 308 00:21:04,380 --> 00:21:06,300 For the people on Isle de Jean Charles, 309 00:21:06,300 --> 00:21:08,140 they're running out of options. 310 00:21:11,860 --> 00:21:15,620 And now what we see is just 10% of what used to be there. 311 00:21:20,780 --> 00:21:24,580 We have been working with the state to move an entire community. 312 00:21:24,580 --> 00:21:27,700 This is the first time the federal government of the United States 313 00:21:27,700 --> 00:21:31,580 has offered dollars for the relocation of folks 314 00:21:31,580 --> 00:21:34,460 due to climate change. 315 00:21:34,460 --> 00:21:37,700 When it comes to relocation, this is the only place 316 00:21:37,700 --> 00:21:40,300 I've ever known as home. 317 00:21:40,300 --> 00:21:42,620 I don't want to abandon it, 318 00:21:42,620 --> 00:21:44,860 I don't want to forget it. 319 00:21:49,260 --> 00:21:52,620 A lot of people say that this land that we're living on won't be here 320 00:21:52,620 --> 00:21:54,740 in 20 years from now. 321 00:21:54,740 --> 00:21:58,140 That's kind of hard to think about, where you grew up 322 00:21:58,140 --> 00:21:59,980 isn't going to be here any more. 323 00:22:03,620 --> 00:22:07,340 The residents of Isle de Jean Charles have been labelled 324 00:22:07,340 --> 00:22:10,060 as the first climate refugees in the United States. 325 00:22:10,060 --> 00:22:11,580 And that may be true. 326 00:22:11,580 --> 00:22:15,220 But what we know for sure is that they won't be the last. 327 00:22:19,700 --> 00:22:23,140 Sea levels are not only increased by melting ice. 328 00:22:28,860 --> 00:22:33,300 The world's oceans are expanding because they're getting warmer. 329 00:22:35,380 --> 00:22:40,180 Over 90% of the increased heat trapped in our atmosphere 330 00:22:40,180 --> 00:22:42,220 has been stored in the oceans. 331 00:22:45,700 --> 00:22:49,340 I've witnessed the devastating effect this is having. 332 00:22:51,220 --> 00:22:56,300 In the last three years, repeated heat stress has caused 333 00:22:56,300 --> 00:23:01,940 a third of the world's corals to first bleach and then die. 334 00:23:05,820 --> 00:23:09,900 Our generation is going to be responsible for the loss 335 00:23:09,900 --> 00:23:14,340 of one of the most majestic ecosystems on the face of the Earth. 336 00:23:15,580 --> 00:23:21,420 We're literally watching the death of this natural wonder. 337 00:23:24,180 --> 00:23:27,740 In many ways, what's happening now across the world 338 00:23:27,740 --> 00:23:29,340 doesn't come as a surprise. 339 00:23:30,820 --> 00:23:35,020 Much of what we're now experiencing, scientists warned about 340 00:23:35,020 --> 00:23:37,260 over 30 years ago. 341 00:23:40,340 --> 00:23:44,620 What we're seeing at the moment is exactly what we predicted. 342 00:23:44,620 --> 00:23:48,500 What I'd like to do today is to start with Dr James Hansen. 343 00:23:48,500 --> 00:23:52,540 In the summer of 1988, I testified to Congress. 344 00:23:52,540 --> 00:23:57,420 Number one, the Earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time 345 00:23:57,420 --> 00:24:00,540 in the history of instrumental measurements. 346 00:24:02,700 --> 00:24:07,340 I said I was 99% confident that this was a real, 347 00:24:07,340 --> 00:24:11,460 physical effect of the increasing carbon dioxide. 348 00:24:11,460 --> 00:24:14,140 The Earth is warming by an amount which is too large 349 00:24:14,140 --> 00:24:16,100 to be a chance fluctuation. 350 00:24:18,540 --> 00:24:23,060 James Hansen was absolutely a pioneer in trying to reach 351 00:24:23,060 --> 00:24:24,900 the public and politicians. 352 00:24:24,900 --> 00:24:27,260 He played a major role, there's no doubt, in putting 353 00:24:27,260 --> 00:24:29,260 climate change on the international agenda. 354 00:24:29,260 --> 00:24:32,420 Those who think we're powerless to do anything about this 355 00:24:32,420 --> 00:24:35,420 greenhouse effect are forgetting about the White House effect. 356 00:24:35,420 --> 00:24:38,140 The short-term response was pretty good. 357 00:24:38,140 --> 00:24:42,900 We are the Lord's creatures, the trustees of this planet. 358 00:24:42,900 --> 00:24:45,340 The politicians were saying the right things, 359 00:24:45,340 --> 00:24:50,860 that we should avoid dangerous human-made changes to climate. 360 00:24:50,860 --> 00:24:56,220 It's just that the policies needed to achieve that were never adopted. 361 00:24:56,220 --> 00:24:58,820 There are many reasons we haven't acted on climate change. 362 00:24:58,820 --> 00:25:00,940 Science is definitely part of the story. 363 00:25:00,940 --> 00:25:02,820 The science is complicated. 364 00:25:02,820 --> 00:25:05,900 Economists had to look at, "OK, what are the costs are going to be?" 365 00:25:05,900 --> 00:25:07,900 And then technologists had to work out, 366 00:25:07,900 --> 00:25:10,180 "Well, what actually can we do about it?" 367 00:25:11,340 --> 00:25:14,460 And that's one of the reasons why it took a long time for governments 368 00:25:14,460 --> 00:25:16,820 really to put policies in place. 369 00:25:16,820 --> 00:25:19,020 However, there was also resistance. 370 00:25:19,020 --> 00:25:20,700 Let's be honest about this. 371 00:25:20,700 --> 00:25:22,780 There are incumbent industries that then, 372 00:25:22,780 --> 00:25:25,420 they knew about climate change, but they didn't really want 373 00:25:25,420 --> 00:25:27,660 anything to happen. 374 00:25:27,660 --> 00:25:29,660 Net income grew 17%... 375 00:25:29,660 --> 00:25:32,300 Earnings rose to $10.9 billion... 376 00:25:32,300 --> 00:25:35,740 The organisations that had the most to lose by acting on climate change 377 00:25:35,740 --> 00:25:37,540 were the fossil fuel companies. 378 00:25:37,540 --> 00:25:40,980 The most profitable industry possibly in the history of mankind, 379 00:25:40,980 --> 00:25:42,420 making huge profits. 380 00:25:42,420 --> 00:25:44,220 They wanted to continue that. 381 00:25:44,220 --> 00:25:46,740 $11.7 billion profit. 382 00:25:47,900 --> 00:25:50,580 Many of those industries, basically the oil and gas industry, 383 00:25:50,580 --> 00:25:54,020 the fossil fuel industry, they undertook a quite concerted 384 00:25:54,020 --> 00:25:58,900 campaign to confuse the science and confuse the message. 385 00:25:58,900 --> 00:26:01,340 This is industry funded and industry driven. 386 00:26:01,340 --> 00:26:05,940 Fossil fuel companies engaged PR consultants who used exactly 387 00:26:05,940 --> 00:26:09,580 the same tactics that have been used by the tobacco companies, 388 00:26:09,580 --> 00:26:11,500 and there's ample documentation. 389 00:26:11,500 --> 00:26:13,860 The basic strategy is to cast doubt on the science. 390 00:26:13,860 --> 00:26:16,620 The science is so distorted and mis-stated. 391 00:26:16,620 --> 00:26:18,780 To promote the message that we don't really know, 392 00:26:18,780 --> 00:26:20,540 there isn't a consensus. 393 00:26:20,540 --> 00:26:23,420 There are too many complexities around climate science. 394 00:26:23,420 --> 00:26:25,620 And it will be too expensive to fix anyway. 395 00:26:25,620 --> 00:26:29,140 We've had flatline temperatures globally for the last eight years. 396 00:26:31,980 --> 00:26:35,060 The cycle of denial has worked. 397 00:26:35,060 --> 00:26:37,260 And even today, the President of the United States 398 00:26:37,260 --> 00:26:38,700 says that it's not true. 399 00:26:38,700 --> 00:26:42,780 All of this with the global warming, and a lot of it's a hoax, 400 00:26:42,780 --> 00:26:45,460 it's a hoax. I mean, it's a moneymaking industry. OK? 401 00:26:48,060 --> 00:26:52,060 In the UK, we have the Climate Change Act from 2008, 402 00:26:52,060 --> 00:26:55,380 which was the first law anywhere in the world to make a 403 00:26:55,380 --> 00:27:00,060 legally binding target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 404 00:27:00,060 --> 00:27:03,340 But what we've also seen here is a number of people 405 00:27:03,340 --> 00:27:08,020 in politics who've decided really to campaign against action 406 00:27:08,020 --> 00:27:10,060 on climate change. 407 00:27:10,060 --> 00:27:14,420 There's plenty of evidence that warming will bring benefits 408 00:27:14,420 --> 00:27:16,140 as well as maybe disadvantages. 409 00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:19,500 The arguments have been, well, climate change is happening 410 00:27:19,500 --> 00:27:21,420 but it may not be that serious. 411 00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:25,220 There are huge benefits from a warming planet. 412 00:27:25,220 --> 00:27:28,460 In the IPCC's own report, there's fewer deaths 413 00:27:28,460 --> 00:27:30,500 from cold-related diseases. 414 00:27:30,500 --> 00:27:34,220 They say we should just adapt to it rather than try to reduce 415 00:27:34,220 --> 00:27:36,140 greenhouse gas emissions. 416 00:27:36,140 --> 00:27:40,060 And of course that's very attractive to politicians. 417 00:27:40,060 --> 00:27:43,820 Because to decide not to do something is much more comfortable. 418 00:27:43,820 --> 00:27:46,700 I think that many of us were willing to hear that message 419 00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:50,380 because we too depend upon fossil fuels for our lifestyle. 420 00:27:50,380 --> 00:27:53,860 So we're all implicated in this economic system, 421 00:27:53,860 --> 00:27:56,780 but it's not like we're all equally responsible, right? 422 00:27:58,340 --> 00:28:02,740 There's no doubt that that seeding of doubt has slowed the transition 423 00:28:02,740 --> 00:28:04,580 to a clean-energy economy. 424 00:28:05,660 --> 00:28:11,740 We haven't entirely wasted the 30 years but it would have been so easy 425 00:28:11,740 --> 00:28:17,180 to solve the problem if we had started gradually to make 426 00:28:17,180 --> 00:28:22,460 fossil fuels more expensive and develop the technologies 427 00:28:22,460 --> 00:28:24,820 to replace them. 428 00:28:24,820 --> 00:28:26,300 But we didn't do that. 429 00:28:27,780 --> 00:28:30,180 And now there are consequences. 430 00:28:32,060 --> 00:28:36,300 Greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise 431 00:28:36,300 --> 00:28:39,340 and the problem is getting harder to solve. 432 00:28:44,420 --> 00:28:48,500 The world's great forests play a vital role in determining 433 00:28:48,500 --> 00:28:51,900 the balance of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. 434 00:28:53,780 --> 00:28:58,220 Trees and plants absorb carbon dioxide, using it to build 435 00:28:58,220 --> 00:29:02,140 their leaves, stems and roots. 436 00:29:02,140 --> 00:29:06,420 In this process of photosynthesis, they have sucked up and stored 437 00:29:06,420 --> 00:29:09,740 nearly a third of our emissions. 438 00:29:12,700 --> 00:29:16,540 The main driver of climate change is greenhouse gas emissions. 439 00:29:16,540 --> 00:29:19,580 Forests are one of our ways out. 440 00:29:19,580 --> 00:29:22,620 They are like the lungs of the planet. 441 00:29:22,620 --> 00:29:26,180 They are big climate regulators at a global scale. 442 00:29:27,700 --> 00:29:30,140 July 23rd, 1972. 443 00:29:34,420 --> 00:29:36,220 My work has always been about monitoring 444 00:29:36,220 --> 00:29:39,540 the land surface and forest. 445 00:29:39,540 --> 00:29:43,100 Thrusting outward into space, we gain new perspective 446 00:29:43,100 --> 00:29:45,700 on ourselves. 447 00:29:45,700 --> 00:29:49,140 Since 1972 till now, Landsat has been tracking 448 00:29:49,140 --> 00:29:52,300 and taking pictures of the Earth's surface. 449 00:29:52,300 --> 00:29:55,860 Circling the Earth, it offers an ideal means 450 00:29:55,860 --> 00:29:57,780 to monitor change. 451 00:29:57,780 --> 00:30:01,380 In 2008, the US government says it's open free of charge 452 00:30:01,380 --> 00:30:03,860 and accessible over the internet. 453 00:30:03,860 --> 00:30:05,900 Millions of images, automatically. 454 00:30:05,900 --> 00:30:08,940 It's just this huge leap in capability. 455 00:30:12,180 --> 00:30:15,620 It was only then where we saw the whole planet. 456 00:30:17,660 --> 00:30:21,700 And when you see the whole, it was a bit of a revelation. 457 00:30:27,820 --> 00:30:30,180 And, yeah, the alarm bells go off. 458 00:30:32,100 --> 00:30:35,300 These warm orangey tones, that's forest disturbance, 459 00:30:35,300 --> 00:30:37,100 that means forest was removed. 460 00:30:40,820 --> 00:30:43,140 We didn't know that was going on. 461 00:30:44,260 --> 00:30:48,100 Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Bolivia. 462 00:30:48,100 --> 00:30:52,860 We can go anywhere and see actual forest be cleared. 463 00:31:02,660 --> 00:31:04,780 It usually starts with logging. 464 00:31:09,540 --> 00:31:13,100 Rainforests are cleared and burned. 465 00:31:13,100 --> 00:31:18,100 They then replace it with soybeans, rubber, pasture for cattle. 466 00:31:19,220 --> 00:31:22,860 But one of the big drivers is palm oil. 467 00:31:25,100 --> 00:31:27,620 Palm oil is like a magical fruit. 468 00:31:29,900 --> 00:31:33,660 We all have palm oil in our houses right now. 469 00:31:33,660 --> 00:31:36,620 It's found in almost every good you can think about. 470 00:31:36,620 --> 00:31:39,140 It's in soaps, it's in shampoo. 471 00:31:39,140 --> 00:31:41,300 It's in chocolate, it's in bread. 472 00:31:41,300 --> 00:31:43,260 It's even in crisps. 473 00:31:43,260 --> 00:31:46,460 What we're doing, accidentally and inadvertently, 474 00:31:46,460 --> 00:31:50,060 is actually causing deforestation in other countries because of our 475 00:31:50,060 --> 00:31:51,700 demand for this product. 476 00:31:53,340 --> 00:31:56,500 That means the natural system is not working. 477 00:31:58,580 --> 00:32:01,020 Habitats are disappearing. 478 00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:05,940 But also when these high carbon stock forests, 479 00:32:05,940 --> 00:32:10,020 that are centuries old, are cleared and burned, 480 00:32:10,020 --> 00:32:12,500 CO2 is added to the atmosphere. 481 00:32:12,500 --> 00:32:15,460 Those emissions go up and warm the planet. 482 00:32:17,820 --> 00:32:20,140 When you look at our maps, our results are showing 483 00:32:20,140 --> 00:32:23,180 that it's accelerating. 484 00:32:23,180 --> 00:32:25,020 It almost looks like a contagion. 485 00:32:25,020 --> 00:32:28,100 You know, it looks like a disease across the planet. 486 00:32:28,100 --> 00:32:31,220 I mean, the ever-increasing pattern. 487 00:32:32,900 --> 00:32:35,980 If we continue this level of deforestation, we'll take it all. 488 00:32:38,660 --> 00:32:42,700 And our ability to mitigate climate change and turn the story 489 00:32:42,700 --> 00:32:45,500 around becomes really vanishingly small. 490 00:32:49,580 --> 00:32:55,700 Trees are now being cut down and burnt at such a rate, 491 00:32:55,700 --> 00:32:59,300 that nearly a third of our carbon dioxide emissions 492 00:32:59,300 --> 00:33:01,540 are caused by deforestation. 493 00:33:15,580 --> 00:33:17,900 It sucks. 494 00:33:17,900 --> 00:33:20,460 I'm a pretty light-hearted, optimistic guy. 495 00:33:20,460 --> 00:33:23,140 But just looking at this data, you just look at the stories, 496 00:33:23,140 --> 00:33:27,580 I'd like to see some evidence 497 00:33:27,580 --> 00:33:31,660 of a really strong, strong kind of 498 00:33:31,660 --> 00:33:34,540 unified political response that was more than an aspiration 499 00:33:34,540 --> 00:33:37,060 on a kind of piece of paper, right? 500 00:33:37,060 --> 00:33:38,380 That would be cool. 501 00:33:45,460 --> 00:33:49,140 Looking ahead to the future, we know that if we continue 502 00:33:49,140 --> 00:33:52,780 releasing carbon dioxide into our atmosphere, 503 00:33:52,780 --> 00:33:56,020 temperatures will keep rising and the consequences 504 00:33:56,020 --> 00:33:59,020 will get progressively worse. 505 00:33:59,020 --> 00:34:01,140 But do we know how much worse? 506 00:34:08,540 --> 00:34:11,860 There are thousands of scientists around the world, 507 00:34:11,860 --> 00:34:15,860 in almost every single country, working to understand 508 00:34:15,860 --> 00:34:22,060 what will happen in the future if we don't act, we don't do more. 509 00:34:22,060 --> 00:34:26,140 So we use really powerful climate models, which are numerical 510 00:34:26,140 --> 00:34:29,340 representations of the whole of the Earth system. 511 00:34:29,340 --> 00:34:32,500 The oceans, the land, the atmosphere and the ice 512 00:34:32,500 --> 00:34:34,820 on the planet. 513 00:34:34,820 --> 00:34:38,220 And then we drive it with increased carbon dioxide, 514 00:34:38,220 --> 00:34:43,180 based on predictions of the future and then we see what the model does. 515 00:34:45,100 --> 00:34:48,460 They predict that if we carry on as we are now, 516 00:34:48,460 --> 00:34:53,740 where CO2 continues to increase, we would hit 1.5 degrees 517 00:34:53,740 --> 00:34:57,900 global warming by between 2040 and 2050. 518 00:34:59,620 --> 00:35:05,300 We're on course to go through 1.5 degrees in just a few decades' time, 519 00:35:05,300 --> 00:35:08,460 and the models differ slightly as to exactly when. 520 00:35:08,460 --> 00:35:12,020 And not long after that, we're on a trajectory to go 521 00:35:12,020 --> 00:35:13,460 through two degrees. 522 00:35:14,660 --> 00:35:18,300 Whilst we don't know exactly what a two degree warmer world 523 00:35:18,300 --> 00:35:22,140 will look like, there's growing evidence about the consequences 524 00:35:22,140 --> 00:35:24,140 of crossing this threshold. 525 00:35:25,420 --> 00:35:31,380 We know that with increased storms, increased floods, droughts 526 00:35:31,380 --> 00:35:36,140 and heat waves, production of food will be more problematic. 527 00:35:36,140 --> 00:35:39,100 It really becomes difficult to see at such levels of warming 528 00:35:39,100 --> 00:35:41,420 how we're going to maintain our agriculture, 529 00:35:41,420 --> 00:35:45,140 such that the population of the world can actually feed itself. 530 00:35:45,140 --> 00:35:48,140 Ensuring people have access to clean, safe drinking water 531 00:35:48,140 --> 00:35:51,180 will become much more difficult. 532 00:35:51,180 --> 00:35:54,060 Developing countries are at the front line 533 00:35:54,060 --> 00:35:55,620 of this battle. 534 00:35:55,620 --> 00:35:59,780 Those parts of the globe which will suffer the most 535 00:35:59,780 --> 00:36:04,220 and the soonest are not those parts of the globe which have actually 536 00:36:04,220 --> 00:36:06,620 loaded all those carbon dioxides into the atmosphere 537 00:36:06,620 --> 00:36:07,860 in the first instance. 538 00:36:09,260 --> 00:36:13,740 But you have to understand, this is also a crisis for the world. 539 00:36:13,740 --> 00:36:16,860 The fact is that if the poor are suffering today, 540 00:36:16,860 --> 00:36:19,740 then the rich will also suffer tomorrow. 541 00:36:22,100 --> 00:36:26,140 As we look further into the future, predicting how our climate system 542 00:36:26,140 --> 00:36:28,940 might behave becomes more complex. 543 00:36:30,580 --> 00:36:34,580 There's uncertainty in climate projection, not least 544 00:36:34,580 --> 00:36:37,620 because we don't know what our generation when we're older 545 00:36:37,620 --> 00:36:39,740 is going to be doing and what the future generations 546 00:36:39,740 --> 00:36:41,780 are going to be doing. 547 00:36:41,780 --> 00:36:46,660 But based on our current trajectory, the various models predict 548 00:36:46,660 --> 00:36:50,340 that by the end of the century, our planet will be somewhere 549 00:36:50,340 --> 00:36:53,220 between three and six degrees hotter. 550 00:36:54,900 --> 00:36:58,380 Even if we are looking at the bottom end of predictions, 551 00:36:58,380 --> 00:37:00,260 that's still really bad. 552 00:37:01,300 --> 00:37:05,340 Over 600 million people live in coastal areas 553 00:37:05,340 --> 00:37:08,660 that are less than ten metres above sea level. 554 00:37:12,940 --> 00:37:17,540 Some models predict if we don't do anything to curb climate change, 555 00:37:17,540 --> 00:37:20,940 then we could be looking at 80 centimetres to a metre 556 00:37:20,940 --> 00:37:24,020 of sea level rise by the end of the century. 557 00:37:25,420 --> 00:37:29,740 So sea level is dangerous for us in the UK, as indeed elsewhere. 558 00:37:29,740 --> 00:37:33,100 The main impacts of what might seem a gradual rise of sea level 559 00:37:33,100 --> 00:37:36,020 is the risk from storms, surges of sea 560 00:37:36,020 --> 00:37:38,860 that we've never seen before. 561 00:37:38,860 --> 00:37:42,260 If we lose all our coastal cities, we've got a different planet 562 00:37:42,260 --> 00:37:46,540 and we've got a economic situation which is out of control. 563 00:37:49,540 --> 00:37:54,140 While there's a lot we understand about what the future might hold, 564 00:37:54,140 --> 00:37:58,500 the big fear is that there may be other, more extreme dangers 565 00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:01,460 lurking beyond those we already know about. 566 00:38:02,860 --> 00:38:05,660 Scientists call these tipping points. 567 00:38:07,500 --> 00:38:11,780 A tipping point is where in a part of the climate system, 568 00:38:11,780 --> 00:38:15,700 just a little bit of extra warming could nudge it into 569 00:38:15,700 --> 00:38:18,860 a different state, an irreversible change. 570 00:38:22,340 --> 00:38:26,540 At the moment, it is our ongoing emissions that are driving 571 00:38:26,540 --> 00:38:28,420 global temperatures up. 572 00:38:31,060 --> 00:38:36,180 But if we cross tipping points, that could spiral beyond our control. 573 00:38:39,060 --> 00:38:42,980 If we imagine a map of the world, it turns out that there are climate 574 00:38:42,980 --> 00:38:45,460 tipping points dotted all around it. 575 00:38:49,380 --> 00:38:52,820 Greenland and West Antarctica could be tipped 576 00:38:52,820 --> 00:38:55,140 into irreversible meltdown. 577 00:38:57,380 --> 00:39:00,700 There are major ecosystems that we could tip 578 00:39:00,700 --> 00:39:02,580 into an alternative state. 579 00:39:04,140 --> 00:39:07,300 For example, triggering a climate-induced dieback 580 00:39:07,300 --> 00:39:10,580 of the rainforest, turning it into a savannah. 581 00:39:12,300 --> 00:39:14,740 Once you've crossed a tipping point, that's it. 582 00:39:14,740 --> 00:39:17,380 You've triggered a catastrophic change. 583 00:39:17,380 --> 00:39:21,140 It's going to carry on getting even hotter, 584 00:39:21,140 --> 00:39:25,060 because you've triggered something that you can't undo. 585 00:39:32,180 --> 00:39:36,580 One of the potential tipping points scientists have identified 586 00:39:36,580 --> 00:39:39,900 involves a greenhouse gas locked underground. 587 00:39:43,820 --> 00:39:47,460 We know that there's large amounts of methane stored in the permafrost 588 00:39:47,460 --> 00:39:51,500 in the Arctic, and we're worried that as that permafrost starts 589 00:39:51,500 --> 00:39:55,380 to actually unfreeze, the methane trapped underneath 590 00:39:55,380 --> 00:39:57,180 will start to bubble up. 591 00:40:04,460 --> 00:40:06,340 Few bubbles down in there. 592 00:40:06,340 --> 00:40:12,020 When we look down into the ice, we see white pockets of gas. 593 00:40:15,340 --> 00:40:17,940 We can see that there are bubbles in the surface layer 594 00:40:17,940 --> 00:40:21,980 and then there's a whole column of bubbles that stacks up. 595 00:40:21,980 --> 00:40:26,300 When this ice sheet melts, the gases are released 596 00:40:26,300 --> 00:40:29,060 into the atmosphere and you can actually hear the gases coming out. 597 00:40:29,060 --> 00:40:30,620 GAS HISSES 598 00:40:37,180 --> 00:40:38,820 Let's have a look. 599 00:40:40,460 --> 00:40:43,340 These flares that we're doing demonstrate that the bubbles 600 00:40:43,340 --> 00:40:45,380 contain methane. 601 00:40:45,380 --> 00:40:48,380 It's a very potent greenhouse gas. 602 00:40:48,380 --> 00:40:54,500 Methane is 21 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2. 603 00:40:54,500 --> 00:40:59,500 So you can imagine a large amount of gas burping out of the permafrost 604 00:40:59,500 --> 00:41:03,380 actually causing the acceleration in the global warming 605 00:41:03,380 --> 00:41:05,140 that we see already happening. 606 00:41:10,860 --> 00:41:14,380 You look out across the millions of lakes in the Arctic, 607 00:41:14,380 --> 00:41:16,820 you start to wonder just how much methane 608 00:41:16,820 --> 00:41:19,140 all of these lakes could release. 609 00:41:25,980 --> 00:41:30,660 The future looks alarming indeed, but it's not without hope. 610 00:41:30,660 --> 00:41:34,500 There is still time, if we act now with determination 611 00:41:34,500 --> 00:41:36,420 and urgency. 612 00:41:36,420 --> 00:41:40,380 What do governments, industries, nations and we, as individuals, 613 00:41:40,380 --> 00:41:43,420 need to do to change our course? 614 00:41:48,220 --> 00:41:53,180 At the 2015 United Nations climate summit in Paris, 615 00:41:53,180 --> 00:41:56,980 for the first time ever, nearly every country in the world 616 00:41:56,980 --> 00:41:58,420 came to an agreement. 617 00:42:00,340 --> 00:42:05,140 It set an objective to hold temperatures below two degrees 618 00:42:05,140 --> 00:42:08,380 and try to limit warming to 1.5. 619 00:42:10,060 --> 00:42:14,260 If we want to try and keep the global climate to 1.5 degrees, 620 00:42:14,260 --> 00:42:18,540 we have to half our carbon emissions by 2030 and then hit 621 00:42:18,540 --> 00:42:22,820 zero carbon emissions globally by 2050. 622 00:42:22,820 --> 00:42:27,460 This poses a huge challenge, as emissions must be cut from almost 623 00:42:27,460 --> 00:42:29,540 every part of the economy. 624 00:42:29,540 --> 00:42:34,980 But 25% come from how we produce electricity and heat, 625 00:42:34,980 --> 00:42:38,820 and alternatives are already within our grasp. 626 00:42:38,820 --> 00:42:40,540 It's actually not that complicated. 627 00:42:40,540 --> 00:42:44,380 We need to shift our energy system away from fossil fuels that produce 628 00:42:44,380 --> 00:42:48,620 greenhouse gases and towards renewable energies that don't. 629 00:42:50,060 --> 00:42:53,300 Every country has got a different resource. 630 00:42:53,300 --> 00:42:57,180 In Norway, you've got an awful lot of hydro power. 631 00:42:57,180 --> 00:43:01,420 If you're in India or Morocco, there's lots and lots of sun. 632 00:43:01,420 --> 00:43:06,260 The problem was that renewables were much more expensive 633 00:43:06,260 --> 00:43:08,740 than fossil fuels. 634 00:43:08,740 --> 00:43:11,180 But what's happened recently is rapid falls in the price 635 00:43:11,180 --> 00:43:12,820 of renewable energy. 636 00:43:14,500 --> 00:43:17,660 Solar power has led the way with this. 637 00:43:19,540 --> 00:43:22,820 Germany went first with of many of the key technologies in solar, 638 00:43:22,820 --> 00:43:25,380 and China really picked up the baton. 639 00:43:27,980 --> 00:43:31,060 There's tremendous technological innovation taking place 640 00:43:31,060 --> 00:43:32,500 around the world. 641 00:43:32,500 --> 00:43:35,340 Solar power is now the cheapest form of newly installed electricity 642 00:43:35,340 --> 00:43:37,380 in more than 60 countries. 643 00:43:38,820 --> 00:43:41,460 We're seeing a huge growth in renewable energy. 644 00:43:41,460 --> 00:43:44,100 Despite entrenched fossil fuel interests, 645 00:43:44,100 --> 00:43:47,340 they've been unable to stop that transition. 646 00:43:48,340 --> 00:43:50,060 And we've got to do even more. 647 00:43:54,460 --> 00:43:57,540 In the UK, for a long time, we've been considering 648 00:43:57,540 --> 00:43:59,220 future energy sources. 649 00:43:59,220 --> 00:44:02,140 It used to be ten, 20 years ago that nuclear power 650 00:44:02,140 --> 00:44:05,500 offered a relatively cheap way through. 651 00:44:05,500 --> 00:44:08,660 And one really good advantage of nuclear is that 652 00:44:08,660 --> 00:44:11,300 it doesn't produce emissions. 653 00:44:11,300 --> 00:44:14,540 But what's become clearer recently is that some technologies 654 00:44:14,540 --> 00:44:17,460 are performing better than others. 655 00:44:17,460 --> 00:44:20,300 And increasingly, that's been about wind. 656 00:44:22,460 --> 00:44:26,820 Here in the UK, we are building some of the biggest offshore 657 00:44:26,820 --> 00:44:29,260 wind turbines in the world. 658 00:44:32,420 --> 00:44:36,180 The bigger the turbine, the more wind can be captured. 659 00:44:40,380 --> 00:44:45,940 Just one revolution of these blades can power a house for a day. 660 00:44:49,100 --> 00:44:52,740 With the increased capacity, wind resource is about to become 661 00:44:52,740 --> 00:44:56,380 as cheap and much cheaper in the future, than fossil fuels. 662 00:44:56,380 --> 00:45:01,260 So far, around 30% of the UK's electricity 663 00:45:01,260 --> 00:45:04,340 comes from renewable sources. 664 00:45:04,340 --> 00:45:07,980 If that is to continue to grow, we'll need to develop 665 00:45:07,980 --> 00:45:13,460 parallel systems to keep our energy reliable and store what we produce. 666 00:45:13,460 --> 00:45:15,900 The bit that comes next, that means that we have to 667 00:45:15,900 --> 00:45:18,260 decarbonise industry and we've got to decarbonise 668 00:45:18,260 --> 00:45:20,380 the transport sector. 669 00:45:20,380 --> 00:45:24,340 And that means using things like electric vehicles, 670 00:45:24,340 --> 00:45:26,060 battery-powered vehicles, 671 00:45:26,060 --> 00:45:29,300 potentially even hydrogen-powered vehicles. 672 00:45:29,300 --> 00:45:31,300 We know what we have to do. 673 00:45:31,300 --> 00:45:33,580 We really have to get on and do it. 674 00:45:33,580 --> 00:45:36,220 And this is the political decision and the brave decision 675 00:45:36,220 --> 00:45:37,860 that needs be taken. 676 00:45:37,860 --> 00:45:41,300 Do we incur a small cost now, not insignificant cost, 677 00:45:41,300 --> 00:45:44,660 let's be clear on it, or do we wait and see 678 00:45:44,660 --> 00:45:46,180 the need to adapt? 679 00:45:46,180 --> 00:45:48,420 And the economics is really clear on this, 680 00:45:48,420 --> 00:45:52,820 that the costs of action are dwarfed by the costs of inaction. 681 00:45:56,620 --> 00:46:01,620 If we take this path now, we could potentially buy ourselves time 682 00:46:01,620 --> 00:46:04,380 to crack some of the most challenging sources 683 00:46:04,380 --> 00:46:06,740 of emissions, like aviation. 684 00:46:11,300 --> 00:46:15,620 One of the major barriers to obtaining electric flight 685 00:46:15,620 --> 00:46:19,860 is the power that we can get from batteries today. 686 00:46:21,340 --> 00:46:27,380 But we are seeing strides being made and seeing a reduction in the weight 687 00:46:27,380 --> 00:46:28,780 of these batteries. 688 00:46:30,220 --> 00:46:33,940 Recently, the world's first fully electric plane 689 00:46:33,940 --> 00:46:36,580 made it across the Channel. 690 00:46:36,580 --> 00:46:40,380 This was a single-passenger 60 kilowatt power jet. 691 00:46:42,020 --> 00:46:46,740 Now we're trying to retrofit a 20 tonne aircraft and get it flying. 692 00:46:48,660 --> 00:46:52,020 We'll be replacing one of the engines with an electric motor 693 00:46:52,020 --> 00:46:53,620 driving the fan. 694 00:46:55,660 --> 00:46:59,300 We're going to take these hybrid electric systems and test them 695 00:46:59,300 --> 00:47:01,860 in the air, test them in flight at different altitudes 696 00:47:01,860 --> 00:47:03,580 and different temperatures. 697 00:47:03,580 --> 00:47:06,820 And this is going to give us the key to understand how we might integrate 698 00:47:06,820 --> 00:47:09,820 these systems for future aircraft designs. 699 00:47:14,340 --> 00:47:19,220 To limit warming to 1.5 degrees, as well as reducing the amount 700 00:47:19,220 --> 00:47:22,700 of carbon dioxide we release into the atmosphere, 701 00:47:22,700 --> 00:47:25,900 we need to find ways to reduce the vast amount 702 00:47:25,900 --> 00:47:27,380 that's already there. 703 00:47:32,820 --> 00:47:36,620 There's a great deal of interest in the kind of technologies 704 00:47:36,620 --> 00:47:39,740 that we might have that could actually remove carbon dioxide 705 00:47:39,740 --> 00:47:41,420 from the atmosphere. 706 00:47:41,420 --> 00:47:43,060 Now, the first thing to say is 707 00:47:43,060 --> 00:47:46,340 we already have these technologies and they're called trees. 708 00:47:46,340 --> 00:47:51,500 If we reforest and rewild vast areas of the world, then we can 709 00:47:51,500 --> 00:47:56,860 lock up huge amounts of carbon that is currently in the atmosphere. 710 00:47:56,860 --> 00:48:01,020 In the future, there are other technologies that might work. 711 00:48:01,020 --> 00:48:02,660 Like direct air capture. 712 00:48:05,140 --> 00:48:09,140 This is one of the world's first carbon collectors. 713 00:48:09,140 --> 00:48:11,220 Air is sucked into the collector. 714 00:48:11,220 --> 00:48:16,340 Inside there is a filter unit that absorbs CO2. 715 00:48:17,820 --> 00:48:19,900 The CO2 sticks to the filter. 716 00:48:21,340 --> 00:48:24,420 And then it's dissolved in water. 717 00:48:24,420 --> 00:48:28,300 And under high pressure, we pump it down to 1,800 metres. 718 00:48:28,300 --> 00:48:31,300 It's the same as the depth of the Grand Canyon. 719 00:48:31,300 --> 00:48:33,540 And there it enters the bedrock. 720 00:48:37,820 --> 00:48:42,620 This is a core taken from deep within the ground at the site 721 00:48:42,620 --> 00:48:46,180 where we injected our CO2. 722 00:48:46,180 --> 00:48:47,980 It's basalt. 723 00:48:47,980 --> 00:48:52,940 The water just flows through these pores and reacts 724 00:48:52,940 --> 00:48:54,660 with the rock. 725 00:48:54,660 --> 00:48:58,940 So the white that we see here is the CO2 turned into stone. 726 00:48:58,940 --> 00:49:01,980 So it's not affecting our atmosphere. 727 00:49:01,980 --> 00:49:05,860 Technologies like this may be able to help us in the future, 728 00:49:05,860 --> 00:49:10,300 but to meet emission targets, action is needed now. 729 00:49:10,300 --> 00:49:14,300 Can what we do as individuals make a difference? 730 00:49:14,300 --> 00:49:19,060 So the average UK person has got a carbon footprint of roughly 731 00:49:19,060 --> 00:49:23,540 13 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, per person, per year. 732 00:49:23,540 --> 00:49:26,020 And that's everything that they buy and do, 733 00:49:26,020 --> 00:49:28,780 traced right back down the supply chain. 734 00:49:30,100 --> 00:49:33,260 And we can pick a few things to start with that will make 735 00:49:33,260 --> 00:49:35,500 a really significant difference. 736 00:49:35,500 --> 00:49:38,540 They should be making our homes as energy efficient as possible. 737 00:49:38,540 --> 00:49:42,140 That can be as simple as getting your house insulated 738 00:49:42,140 --> 00:49:46,060 so you waste less energy, which by the way, will save you money. 739 00:49:46,060 --> 00:49:50,300 Everything that we buy, even if we can't see it, 740 00:49:50,300 --> 00:49:52,180 has a carbon footprint. 741 00:49:52,180 --> 00:49:55,620 From smartphones, to clothes, to furniture. 742 00:49:55,620 --> 00:49:59,780 We've all become completely used to buying things 743 00:49:59,780 --> 00:50:02,100 produced using fossil fuels. 744 00:50:03,540 --> 00:50:06,540 A lot of the time we really don't know that. 745 00:50:08,020 --> 00:50:10,820 Take a washing machine, mainly made out of metal 746 00:50:10,820 --> 00:50:13,100 and that starts off with a mine. 747 00:50:14,740 --> 00:50:17,540 Ore is going to be taken to the blast furnace 748 00:50:17,540 --> 00:50:19,180 to extract the metal. 749 00:50:19,180 --> 00:50:22,820 An enormous amounts of fossil fuel is going to be used. 750 00:50:22,820 --> 00:50:25,860 And then parts are turned into components, 751 00:50:25,860 --> 00:50:28,060 more emissions again. 752 00:50:28,060 --> 00:50:31,020 Lastly, it's shipped all over the world to arrive 753 00:50:31,020 --> 00:50:33,620 at your local shop. 754 00:50:33,620 --> 00:50:38,100 So we need to think about buying less physical products. 755 00:50:38,100 --> 00:50:41,980 When we do so, buy higher quality and then make it last. 756 00:50:43,180 --> 00:50:46,300 We've been such a wasteful world, especially in the more developed 757 00:50:46,300 --> 00:50:48,140 parts of the world. 758 00:50:48,140 --> 00:50:50,660 You actually can be far less wasteful 759 00:50:50,660 --> 00:50:54,020 and not affect the quality of your life at all. 760 00:50:57,260 --> 00:51:00,740 Food is about a quarter of our carbon footprint in the UK. 761 00:51:00,740 --> 00:51:05,060 If we take three steps, then we can cut that in half. 762 00:51:07,460 --> 00:51:11,380 First step, just to eat everything that we buy. 763 00:51:11,380 --> 00:51:15,860 In the UK, we waste an enormous proportion of our food. 764 00:51:15,860 --> 00:51:21,380 And second, avoid air freighted food which is about 100 times 765 00:51:21,380 --> 00:51:24,380 as impactful as putting it on a boat, and suddenly becomes 766 00:51:24,380 --> 00:51:27,020 a carbon disaster. 767 00:51:27,020 --> 00:51:31,220 Lastly, the most important thing to do is to reduce our meat 768 00:51:31,220 --> 00:51:34,700 and dairy consumption, especially beef and lamb. 769 00:51:37,380 --> 00:51:41,260 The problem is not traditional farming techniques. 770 00:51:41,260 --> 00:51:44,700 The problem is with intensive farming. 771 00:51:44,700 --> 00:51:48,980 It takes a lot of resources to rear an animal, and cows and sheep 772 00:51:48,980 --> 00:51:51,580 are especially high impact because they ruminate, 773 00:51:51,580 --> 00:51:54,060 which means they burp up methane. 774 00:51:54,060 --> 00:51:58,140 And the science on this is absolutely clear cut. 775 00:51:58,140 --> 00:52:01,740 Our studies have shown that if we take these three steps, 776 00:52:01,740 --> 00:52:04,700 we could knock perhaps even two tonnes off the average 777 00:52:04,700 --> 00:52:06,580 UK person's carbon footprint. 778 00:52:06,580 --> 00:52:08,460 These things really do matter. 779 00:52:08,460 --> 00:52:10,300 They only get you part of the way. 780 00:52:10,300 --> 00:52:13,860 But again, if we don't have them, we won't make the final target. 781 00:52:15,180 --> 00:52:17,980 What happens next is up to us all. 782 00:52:20,900 --> 00:52:24,540 I truly believe that together we can bring about the 783 00:52:24,540 --> 00:52:28,460 transformative change that is needed. 784 00:52:31,340 --> 00:52:35,100 Where your influence really kicks in is the way that you push 785 00:52:35,100 --> 00:52:37,020 for the cultural change that we need to see 786 00:52:37,020 --> 00:52:39,180 and the political change that we need to see. 787 00:52:39,180 --> 00:52:44,180 People being able to make their voice heard really matters. 788 00:52:45,220 --> 00:52:48,660 You should not underestimate your own power or underestimate 789 00:52:48,660 --> 00:52:51,060 your own significance to change people's minds 790 00:52:51,060 --> 00:52:52,900 and change people's behaviour. 791 00:52:55,340 --> 00:53:01,460 When I was younger, I had lots of plans of becoming different things, 792 00:53:01,460 --> 00:53:05,300 everything from an actor to a scientist. 793 00:53:06,980 --> 00:53:11,180 But then my teachers in school told me about climate change. 794 00:53:13,180 --> 00:53:16,060 That was sort of an eye opener to me. 795 00:53:18,340 --> 00:53:22,220 The more I read about it, the more I understood how dangerous 796 00:53:22,220 --> 00:53:24,500 it was for everyone. 797 00:53:26,460 --> 00:53:28,500 I stopped going to school. 798 00:53:28,500 --> 00:53:31,500 I stopped talking because I was just so sad. 799 00:53:31,500 --> 00:53:33,540 And then... 800 00:53:33,540 --> 00:53:37,380 that made me very concerned. 801 00:53:39,060 --> 00:53:41,740 One day, I decided that this was enough. 802 00:53:41,740 --> 00:53:45,060 I wasn't going to accept this any more. 803 00:53:45,060 --> 00:53:48,740 My future and everyone else's future is at risk 804 00:53:48,740 --> 00:53:49,980 and nothing is being done. 805 00:53:49,980 --> 00:53:51,260 No-one is doing anything. 806 00:53:51,260 --> 00:53:53,860 So I have to do something. 807 00:53:56,940 --> 00:54:01,380 So I sat myself down on the ground outside the Swedish parliament 808 00:54:01,380 --> 00:54:05,260 and I decided that I wasn't going to go to school. 809 00:54:08,900 --> 00:54:11,620 The first day I sat all alone. 810 00:54:16,380 --> 00:54:19,620 Then the second day, people started joining me. 811 00:54:22,740 --> 00:54:25,580 I wouldn't have imagined in my wildest dreams 812 00:54:25,580 --> 00:54:27,380 that this would happen. 813 00:54:28,700 --> 00:54:31,020 It happened so fast. 814 00:54:31,020 --> 00:54:34,100 I know hundreds and thousands of pupils follow you 815 00:54:34,100 --> 00:54:36,740 by not going to school. 816 00:54:36,740 --> 00:54:38,860 You are on the front pages of the most influential 817 00:54:38,860 --> 00:54:41,340 newspapers and magazines. 818 00:54:41,340 --> 00:54:45,300 I saw that nothing was happening and no-one was doing anything. 819 00:54:45,300 --> 00:54:47,100 So then I have to do something. 820 00:54:47,100 --> 00:54:50,580 And I want to be able to, when I grow, to look back and say 821 00:54:50,580 --> 00:54:53,140 that I did what I could back then. 822 00:54:59,940 --> 00:55:01,740 What do we want? 823 00:55:01,740 --> 00:55:04,180 Climate justice! When do we want it? Now! 824 00:55:04,180 --> 00:55:08,980 It is amazing that tens of thousands of children all around the world 825 00:55:08,980 --> 00:55:11,420 have done the same thing as I did... 826 00:55:12,660 --> 00:55:17,740 ..saying that why should we go to school, if there's no future? 827 00:55:17,740 --> 00:55:19,420 And why should we learn facts 828 00:55:19,420 --> 00:55:24,140 when the most important facts don't matter? 829 00:55:26,460 --> 00:55:30,420 I've learned that you are never too small to make a difference. 830 00:55:30,420 --> 00:55:33,540 And if a few children can get headlines all over the world, 831 00:55:33,540 --> 00:55:37,420 just by not going to school, then imagine what we could all 832 00:55:37,420 --> 00:55:39,900 do together if we really wanted to. 833 00:55:41,060 --> 00:55:44,620 Change is coming, whether you like it or not. 834 00:55:44,620 --> 00:55:48,220 Today was a day led by the children in dozens of protests 835 00:55:48,220 --> 00:55:49,580 across the country. 836 00:55:56,340 --> 00:55:58,020 Save our planet! 837 00:55:58,020 --> 00:56:00,860 We still have time to turn everything around, 838 00:56:00,860 --> 00:56:05,100 to pull the emergency brake and to take action. 839 00:56:05,100 --> 00:56:10,180 But that short period of time isn't going to last for long. 840 00:56:18,460 --> 00:56:23,780 There's a message for all of us in the voices of these young people. 841 00:56:23,780 --> 00:56:28,820 It is after all their generation who will inherit this dangerous legacy. 842 00:56:29,980 --> 00:56:33,900 We now stand at a unique point in our planet's history, 843 00:56:33,900 --> 00:56:38,300 one where we must all share responsibility both for our 844 00:56:38,300 --> 00:56:42,460 present wellbeing and for the future of life on Earth. 845 00:56:44,540 --> 00:56:48,940 Every one of us has the power to make changes and make them now. 846 00:56:50,020 --> 00:56:53,860 Our wonderful natural world and the lives of our children 847 00:56:53,860 --> 00:56:57,300 and grandchildren, and all those who follow them, 848 00:56:57,300 --> 00:57:00,540 depend upon us doing so.