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Something is going on with the weather.

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(lightning strikes)

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In the late winter of 2019,

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14 U.S. states from North Dakota to Louisiana

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are smothered by a historic flood.

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A flood that usually happens in spring.

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I lost everything, I lost everything.

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One month later, a sever winter storm

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slams wide areas of the high plains,

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spreading deep snow, stranding people and livestock.

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A winter storm, in spring.

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(alarm sounds)

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Then, in April and May,

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a severe tornado outbreak in the Central Plains

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spins up over 500 twisters,

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killing 13 people and flattening towns

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from Texas to Iowa.

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Extreme weather events just keep coming.

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More, bigger, more often.

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And the question at the top of everyone's mind,

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are these the real impacts of a warming planet?

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This is more than an extreme weather story.

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This is a story about our food

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and our water systems.

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This is a story about our health, our economy,

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our buildings, our roads.

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This is a story about our sports, our tourism,

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our ways of life.

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And climate change is not this thing

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that's going to happen in the future

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and we need to just prepare for,

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it is happening right here and right now

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in communities across the country.

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(intense music)

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(mysterious music)

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There is zero debate

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within the scientific community

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that the planet is warming.

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That's unequivocal, it can't be denied.

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The instrumental record gets really good

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at about 1950, and it gets even better after that

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when we put satellites into space

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and we can now make comprehensive measurements

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of the glove at a rapid frequency.

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And these are all telling us the same thing,

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that the planet is warming,

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it's warming from the top of the atmosphere

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to the bottom of the oceans.

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But how do we know all this for sure?

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All across the world,

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thousands of weather stations record temperature,

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rainfall, and wind.

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The results of this simple record keeping

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are straightforward.

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2018 was Earth's fourth warmest year on record,

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after 2015, 2016, and 2017.

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Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880

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have occurred since 2005.

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2019 is on track to be in the top three

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warmest years on record.

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What's more, the global climate is responding

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to all that heat.

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Global warming is affecting different kinds of weather

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in different ways.

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The easiest one for everyone to understand

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is that you add more heat,

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you're going to have more heat.

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Temperatures are higher, heatwaves are lasting longer,

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they are more intense,

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and we're seeing more of them.

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But some other ways that we're seeing our weather change

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is the increase in extreme amounts of rainfall,

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and this is happening around the globe,

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even in places that are drying out.

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You have to look at our world as a water world.

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So when you take a world that is mainly water,

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you evaporate that water into the atmosphere,

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there's more of it to actually come down

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in these heavy rainfall events,

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and that is what we're seeing everywhere.

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(dramatic music)

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In 1859, Irish scientist John Tyndall

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discovered that carbon dioxide, methane,

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and water vapor all trap heat in the atmosphere.

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40 years later, a Swede, Svante Arrhenius,

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predicted that carbon dioxide

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from fossil fuel combustion might boost that work,

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and coined the term "Greenhouse Effect".

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Tyndall and Arrhenius were right,

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now the planet is warming,

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and for the reasons they discovered.

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However, what no one back then could predict

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is how atmospheric warming

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might change the way weather behaves.

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More than that, how it would force a shift

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in the global climate,

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and change the weather not just for today or tomorrow,

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but permanently.

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(dramatic music)

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You often hear people say,

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"So, what's the big deal?

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"Climate has changed a lot in the past."

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Well, yeah, we know that because

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climate scientists had figured out

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how climate has changed in the past,

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and that's why we're so concerned,

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because the changes we're seeing

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are far outside of what we would consider

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natural variability.

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If we compare the future expected changes, right?

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We're talking over the next several decades

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of a few degrees Celsius, maybe five degrees Fahrenheit.

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Changes of that magnitude in the past

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have completely reorganized Earth's climate,

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so we're talking the difference between

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a deep ice age or a very warm greenhouse Earth,

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the changes of this magnitude.

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And if we continue to put emissions

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into the atmosphere,

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we expect to exceed the changes that we've seen

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in the historic record,

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and basically put us back to

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climates that were present

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when the dinosaurs were roaming the Earth

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and there were crocodiles near the North Pole,

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and that sort of thing.

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So, you know, a couple of degrees Fahrenheit globally

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is a massive amount of climate change.

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It sounds like an extreme future,

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but scientists base it in part on the record

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of how the climate has behaved in the past.

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Before the mid-19th century,

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we could use what we call climate proxies

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to try to reconstruct what climate was like.

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Things like tree rings,

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tree like ocean sediments,

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things like ice cores.

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From that record, we can rebuild climate patterns

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on the order of centuries ago

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to millions of years ago,

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and those are all telling us that

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we're in a period of unprecedented warming

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that can't be explained in any other way

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except through greenhouse gas emissions.

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The growth rings of old trees

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report hot and cold, wet and dry periods,

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going back hundreds of years.

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Ice cores drilled from the bottoms of glaciers

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contain bubbles of the atmosphere

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as it was hundreds of thousands of years ago.

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Ocean sediment cores push the climate record back

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even further, to many millions of years.

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Forensic analysis of all these so called

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paleoclimate models together tells the story

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of a climate that has changed naturally through time.

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Variations in orbit of the Earth,

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sun cycles,

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volcanic eruptions,

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and other natural forces have all played a part

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in changing the climate.

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But there is one consistent common theme.

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When carbon dioxide levels have been lower,

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temperatures have been lower.

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When carbon dioxide levels have been higher,

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temperatures have been higher.

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So going forward, what we can expect

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unless we do get a handle

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on our emissions that we're putting

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into our atmosphere is more extreme weather events.

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Including heavy rain, including intense heat,

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and intensifying tropical systems.

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We're also going to expect rising seas

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at an increasing pace,

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melting ice from land ice, from glaciers,

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and our sea ice not reforming the way it has in the past.

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And one thing that people don't always think through

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is that these increases aren't going

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to happen in a bubble.

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These increases are going to happen at the same time.

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Different kinds of extreme weather

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do seem to be happening all at once, on TV at least.

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But people who get hit by big floods, fires,

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hurricanes, tornadoes, and heat waves

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are not the only people being affected

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by warming and the changing climate.

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But climate is changing everywhere, all the time.

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So, to help people better understand the magnitude

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of the changing we're expecting,

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we created this future Urban Climate's mapper,

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it's a web application that people can go to

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and look at any one of about 540 urban areas

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in North America to see how climate change

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is expected to impact these places.

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So people can go to this application,

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they can click on an urban area,

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and see where the current climate is most similar

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to that urban area's future climate.

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So, a great example is Washington D.C.

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By 2080, Washington D.C. is going to feel like

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a town in Northern Mississippi

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that's called Greenwood, Mississippi.

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So, the typical winter in Greenwood, Mississippi

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is about 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer

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than D.C.'s winter is at present,

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that's about five, six degrees Celsius,

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and it'll be 75% wetter in winter in Washington D.C.

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than it is now.

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So it's gonna become more sub-tropical, in essence.

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Children living in Washington D.C. today,

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if they continue to live here,

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they're going to live through a dramatic

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transformation of climate.

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They'll be telling their kids what climate was like,

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and their children aren't going to believe

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that it used to snow potentially in Washington D.C.

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Run the clock forward 60 years,

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and all the changes taking place now have added up.

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By 2080, weather in Miami will be

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more like Southern Mexico.

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Minneapolis, Saint Paul, will be more like Nebraska.

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St. Louis and Denver will be more like Northern Texas.

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The point is, the climate is already moving

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in these directions.

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Climate change is affecting everyone here and now

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just in different ways depending on where you live.

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In the west, droughts are getting worse,

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that's upping the risk for wildfires,

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and that is worsening air quality.

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What we're seeing in the middle of the country,

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intense heavy rain events,

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particularly the Midwest,

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where there's a huge uptick

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in these heavy rain events

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which are wiping out crops for farmers,

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and really interfering with the timing of planting crops

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and harvesting crops.

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Across the south, intense heat is getting more intense

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and it's lasting longer.

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While extreme weather events increase

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in number and strength,

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and the growing heat breaks no records yearly,

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NASA, NOAA, and national agencies around the world

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are keeping a close watch.

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NASA has 16 satellites collecting longterm data

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on changes in ocean evaporation,

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atmospheric water vapor, clouds,

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sea and land ice, snow cover,

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and other aspects of the global climate.

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The growing evidence gives a good picture

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of what's happening on the planet.

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The world is getting warmer,

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and the climate is steadily changing.

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The natural world is a really good place to look

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for these changes that are going on,

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because a lot of aspects of the natural world

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are responding, whether it be on land, in freshwater,

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or in the oceans,

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and so what we're seeing is earlier greening in spring,

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early arrival and singing of birds,

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earlier first singing of frogs.

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We're seeing species shifting their geographic ranges

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to the north.

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So, species that previously were limited

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to southern locations are slowly marching forward.

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One of the biggest impacts

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from all the warming is on the plant world.

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This represents these enormous,

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very visible shifts in our climate,

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that are changing right in front of our eyes.

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This is a USDA map showing the ideal areas

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to plant certain crops, and they're color coded.

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Now the first image you see is 1990,

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I'm going to put it in motion here,

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and it'll jump to 2015,

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and look at this enormous shift

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in the areas where we ideally want to plant crops.

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All of that is based on temperatures

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and rising temperatures.

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In just 25 years, there's been a major shift

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in where plants can survive and thrive.

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The heat is moving north,

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and the plants are moving with it.

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The question is, will they be able to adapt

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to such a rapid rate of change?

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The real problem I think is related

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to our ability to grow food,

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and extended drought.

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And maybe in places like eastern North America

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that are predicted to become wetter,

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that's not gonna be as big of an impact.

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But globally, you know, large scale drought

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is going to force people to migrate to new regions,

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that's gonna destabilize regions,

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and we're gonna have climate migrants,

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and I think that's probably

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one of the biggest near term impacts.

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You know, we focus on natural systems

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or things like that, but these impacts to societies

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are going to be very large,

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and they're gonna ripple across the planet.

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(dramatic music)

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A record breaking Japanese heatwave in May,

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temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

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Western Australia had its warmest January on record

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with temperatures topping 120.

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All across South America, heat records fell.

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And the Atacama Desert, one of the driest

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places on Earth, flooded.

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The growing heat, stronger hurricanes,

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long droughts, flooding rains,

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intense heat waves, rising seas.

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Is this really our future?

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(dramatic music)

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Unless the world can bring down greenhouse

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gas levels in the atmosphere,

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now at 415 parts per million,

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the overwhelming scientific evidence says get ready,

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for even more life changing, extreme weather events.

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(dramatic violin music)

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(thunder cracks)

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My goal would be to take our efforts

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and expand them globally to do potentially

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thousands of urban areas across the planet,

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on all of the continents where lots of people live

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to try to get everyone across the planet

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better informed about why we're concerned.

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One of the biggest things people can do

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is talk about climate change, and ask questions,

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so that they can understand

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that their actions have impacts.

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And the more you learn about the subject,

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the more you're going to understand

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how your personal actions are impacting our planet.

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(dramatic music)