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Once again, a scary new virus

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is commanding the world's attention.

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Information changes daily.

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But we know that the Wuhan coronavirus

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started in a Chinese hub of 11 million people.

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Three million more than New York City.

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Wuhan is a city with daily flights

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to other countries around the world.

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With over 2,000 deaths reported,

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and cases of sickness on the rise,

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China has put Wuhan on lockdown.

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Worldwide, flights to and from China have been canceled.

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Ships have been quarantined.

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And health officials caution that

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an effective vaccine may be a year away.

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There are several steps before we can

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imagine any mass vaccination program at this stage.

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And it's not clear when we will have it available.

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The National Institute of Health

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is working diligently to develop

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a vaccine for the novel coronavirus

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by using its own genetic material, or RNA.

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What a mRNA vaccine is, is we're essentially

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delivering the genetic material,

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so we're delivering the messenger RNA

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that encodes our mutated novel coronavirus spike.

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The messenger RNA will tell the body to present

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this spike protein, and the body will respond

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by creating an immune response.

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But a lot more needs to be known

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about this coronavirus before any vaccine

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can be effective and widely available.

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Just what is COVID-19?

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And how does it spread?

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Every day that goes by and there are more cases

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it's more likely that the epidemic

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will surface in other places.

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(disturbing music)

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Millions of people who will have traveled

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across China and around the world

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are potentially carrying a virus which is

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extremely contagious and proving difficult to contain.

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Should we be worried?

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What are your chances of getting the latest coronavirus?

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One of the things we have seen,

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we meaning scientists and epidemiologists

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have seen in the last 50 years or so

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is apparently an increasing occurrence

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of what we call emerging infectious diseases.

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Brand new diseases that come out of nowhere,

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like AIDS, SARS, Zika.

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Or old diseases that we have gotten used to

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that we think aren't that big a problem

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and suddenly they come roaring back with a vengeance.

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So the question is, why is that?

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Chinese scientists who identified the virus

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named it novel coronavirus of 2019.

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It began infecting humans late last year.

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But it seems to have originated

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in a live animal market in Wuhan, China.

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The Wuhan virus belongs to the coronavirus family,

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which is a notorious group.

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Coronaviruses are an extremely common cause of colds

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and other upper respiratory infections.

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And they're often zoonosis,

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this means they can spread from one animal to another.

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Coronaviruses are behind SARS and MERS.

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What we know is that this virus

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is in the same family of viruses like SARS.

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So it is akin and about 80% genetically similar

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to the SARS virus.

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Some of them originate in animals

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and then show up in people.

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Based on some of the transmission data from China

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not only did the virus jump from

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an animal reservoir into humans,

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but there is sustained human to human transmission.

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Coronaviruses were first

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identified in the 1960s.

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And get their name from their crown-like shape.

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These are the first detailed images

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of the Wuhan virus from a US laboratory.

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They're similar in shape and size to other coronaviruses,

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which have been around for some time.

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And how long they go back is a debate.

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There is a new belief now that at least

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some viruses used to be bacteria,

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which are living organisms.

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And then learned how to do without

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their replication machinery.

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Viruses use their host to supply

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the structure and energy to reproduce.

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Once a virus is embedded its only goal

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is to make more of itself.

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In humans this typically happens through airborne

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droplets of fluid produced by infected individuals,

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each drop containing the virus.

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Wuhan virus droplets fall to the ground

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within a few feet, that makes this virus

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harder to get than measles, chicken pox, and tuberculosis,

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which can travel a hundred feet through the air.

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But it's easier to catch than HIV or hepatitis,

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which spread only through direct contact

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with the bodily fluids of an infected person.

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Coronaviruses use a deadly strategy,

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often people are carriers before they

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even know that they're ill.

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When symptoms arise they vary from mild to severe.

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They may include a cough, possibly a fever,

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and shortness of breath.

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Many people recover within a few days.

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But some, especially the very young, elderly,

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or people who have a weakened immune system,

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may develop a bronchitis or pneumonia.

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So far it seems to take two days to two weeks

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for a victim to show Wuhan symptoms,

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during which time they're contagious.

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Stealth is one word that often comes in

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because a virus is able to find a cell,

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find a host, it's able to get in,

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and it's able to crosswire, disconnect,

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some of the alarm systems that a body has.

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So that it can get a headstart in terms of

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replicating itself and moving itself forward

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in terms of making enough copies of itself

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so it can spread to the next host.

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Whenever a new virus appears

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health authorities try to predict

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an accurate contagion rate.

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And to prevent what is known as a pandemic.

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Epidemic is when you have a major epidemic

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like this one, in one country,

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with sustained human to human transmission.

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To become a pandemic you have to get

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the same situation that we have in China

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in more than one country,

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and possibly more than one continent.

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That is what define a pandemic,

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it becomes a global spreading event.

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The expectation really at this stage

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would be that there should be ongoing transmission.

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We need to do everything we can

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to try and slow that down.

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Viruses are one of the simplest organisms

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and one of the oldest organisms on the planet.

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Our ability to study them has increased exponentially

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over just the past 10 or 15 years, even.

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Right now, within 48 hours,

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we can sequence the entire genome of a virus,

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identify each of the proteins that are present in there,

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compare it to all the other viruses that we know of,

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find its nearest relatives.

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Infer from that how the virus

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is probably spreading in the population.

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Come up with tests that can then go out there

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and test individuals for not only the presence

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of an active virus infection,

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but we can also then design tests that can tell you

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if you have been infected at some point in time

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in your life with the virus.

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They also try to calculate

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how rapidly a virus may spread

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by using a reproductive number known as an R0.

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The R0 represents how many people

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one infected individual may transmit the virus to.

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Multiple teams have published estimates

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about the Wuhan virus that range from

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1.4 to 5.5, making it difficult

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to get a clear picture of how contagious it really is.

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The World Health Organization suggests

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an average R0 between 1.4 and 2.5.

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That would make the Wuhan less contagious than SARS,

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which had an average R0 of three

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and infected more than 8,000 people, 774 of whom died.

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The R0 rate for measles ranges from 12 to 18.

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But much is still unknown about the Wuhan coronavirus.

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If the disease will spread globally,

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inevitable it will really affect all areas of the world.

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Experts don't yet know

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how dangerous this new virus might be

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because coronaviruses mutate while they replicate,

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evolving and changing quickly.

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Well the more you know about the virus

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the more you can use natural science, epidemiology,

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and all the tools that science provide us

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to optimize what we do.

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Viruses are very small entities.

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They're minuscule.

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Millions of them could fit on the head of a pin.

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They're very tiny.

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And they have very limited nucleic acid.

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They're programmed, if you will,

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to purposely make all sorts of genetic mistakes

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when they are replicated by a cell.

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And the reason that's advantageous

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is because the one thing a virus can do well

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is mutate at a very high rate.

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And what that means is if you can mutate at a very high rate

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you can potentially take advantage

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of not just one but hundreds, thousands,

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maybe even more, ecologic niches that you might encounter.

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So viruses are sort of the ultimate genetic adapters.

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Some of them are uniquely adapted

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to thrive in humans, even if they originated elsewhere.

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We know that when a virus or a pathogen

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enters a new host things will evolve.

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What we don't know is where that evolution leads.

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Will it lead to increased disease,

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will it lead to less disease,

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will it lead to increased amounts

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of the virus with fewer symptoms?

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These are all the potential possibilities,

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and it's another reason why

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we really need to monitor this infection

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and these outbreaks very very closely.

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Not only from the aspect of preventing disease

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in the public, but also because we want to

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keep track of how the virus is changing

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and make sure that we're trying to keep up with that virus

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in terms of how its properties might be changing

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now that it's seen so many individuals.

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Scientists studying the SARS virus in 2005

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discovered that it was originally present in bats.

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And that somehow made the leap to infect humans.

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One category is newly emerging.

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A brand new virus that wasn't affecting people before.

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It might not even have been noticed in animals before.

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That was true of SARS, for example.

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And despite the Wuhan virus' sudden infamy,

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it's been around for a while.

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Something very similar was found several years ago

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in a cave in a province roughly

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a thousand miles southwest of Wuhan.

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A field team took blood samples

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from a couple of thousand people,

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about 400 of whom lived near the cave.

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Roughly 3% of them carried antibodies

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against SARS related coronaviruses, like the Wuhan variety.

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They weren't able to determine if the carriers

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had actually gotten sick, or if they'd been exposed.

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In these fearful times,

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Beijing's hospitals look like battlegrounds.

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A sick man is carried into one of the places

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where checks for SARS are now being done.

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But they knew that the SARS virus

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had made the jump from bats to humans.

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So they believed that the new coronavirus

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also emerged from an animal, probably a bat.

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Then it may have passed through a second

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intermediate host, like a pangolin,

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before appearing in humans.

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It's what viruses do best.

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What infectious diseases wanna do

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is spread to the next host.

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The common flu, or influenza,

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is a virus, but it rarely gets the attention

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of things with exotic names.

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For most of us the flu is old news,

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whether or not we get our yearly shot.

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Viruses named after foreign places,

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like Ebola, Zika, and Wuhan, inspire terror.

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It's still tough to assess how lethal

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the Wuhan virus may be.

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The worst cases are usually detected first.

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And so far, about 2% of these have been fatal.

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But people with mild cases may never visit a doctor.

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There may be more cases than we know,

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and the death rate may be lower than initially thought.

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There is one key element here, that is,

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are people infected with the disease

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able to transmit the disease

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before developing symptoms or not?

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Depending on what is the fraction of pre-symptomatic

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transmission the disease will have a different pace.

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Because while we can isolate people with symptoms

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we can decrease the transmissibility

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of the disease that way.

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If a large fraction of the transmissibility

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is during a pre-symptomatic phase

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it's impossible to isolate people.

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And so the disease will move more rapidly across the world.

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Worldwide we're already

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dealing with a dangerous epidemic.

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According to the CDC, influenza has already sickened

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at least 15 million Americans this season.

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Hospitalizing 140,000, and killing 8,200.

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In a bad year the flu kills up to 61,000 Americans,

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and worldwide more than 650,000.

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While health workers and scientists

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are still learning about the Wuhan virus

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perhaps the biggest concern is that,

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in milder cases it can masquerade as the flu.

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And that makes distinguishing between the two

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more difficult and increases the chances of transmission.

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When it comes to the Wuhan coronavirus or any new virus,

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increasing global connectivity magnifies the problem.

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We have to be aware that now every place in the world

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is one flight away from China.

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And every place in the world

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is one flight away from almost all other places.

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It might be two flights instead of one,

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but we are living in a global interconnected world.

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But the experts are on the case.

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Today we can do all these things in a matter of hours.

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And we can come up with tests that tell you

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if you're infected, we can come up with tests

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that tell you if you have been infected previously,

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and controlled the infection.

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And we can do so in a matter of days

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what used to take years to do,

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in the 50s, and even in the 80s.

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So our technology has progressed significantly

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in terms of our ability to do things

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effectively and quickly.

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It really is now our ability to implement

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all these things that is something that

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our public health officials are working on.

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Thwarting this virus, or any new disease,

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requires a hands-on approach by multiple partners.

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Since the very beginning, all the agencies

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have had a good deal of coordination.

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The World Health Organization, Center for Disease Control,

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European Center for Disease Control.

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And they have created a network of people they talk to.

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For now, health officials say,

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the best precaution is the simplest, wash your hands.

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(disturbing music)