1
00:00:06,548 --> 00:00:10,051
[narrator] Let's imagine, for a second,
all the ways the world could end.
2
00:00:11,428 --> 00:00:13,471
It could be something from above.
3
00:00:13,888 --> 00:00:15,306
Or something from below.
4
00:00:18,768 --> 00:00:21,271
Or it could be something
we did to ourselves.
5
00:00:21,354 --> 00:00:23,148
But there's one thing
that consistently ranks
6
00:00:23,231 --> 00:00:25,859
as one of the most likely things
to end the world...
7
00:00:26,568 --> 00:00:28,903
Well, if you think of anything
that could come along
8
00:00:28,987 --> 00:00:31,364
that would kill millions of people,
9
00:00:31,448 --> 00:00:33,783
the pandemic is our greatest risk.
10
00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:37,245
[narrator] A pandemic is a disease
that escapes our control,
11
00:00:37,328 --> 00:00:38,830
sweeping across the world,
12
00:00:38,913 --> 00:00:41,875
killing millions
and changing civilizations.
13
00:00:42,500 --> 00:00:44,669
We know this
because we've seen it before...
14
00:00:44,753 --> 00:00:46,004
a few times.
15
00:00:46,087 --> 00:00:50,467
In the 6th century, a pandemic killed
half the world's population.
16
00:00:50,550 --> 00:00:52,886
In the 14th,
another wiped out half of Europe.
17
00:00:53,511 --> 00:00:55,472
And in the 20th, a pandemic killed
18
00:00:55,555 --> 00:00:59,142
almost five percent of
the world's population in just two years.
19
00:01:00,643 --> 00:01:02,479
But that was a hundred years ago.
20
00:01:02,562 --> 00:01:06,107
We've learned from these past pandemics
and made incredible advances.
21
00:01:06,941 --> 00:01:11,446
Improved response, improved training,
improved workforce...
22
00:01:11,529 --> 00:01:15,033
We have improved surveillance systems,
improve communications.
23
00:01:15,116 --> 00:01:18,578
We have organizations
like the World Health Organization, CDC...
24
00:01:18,661 --> 00:01:23,792
We have improved diagnostics,
improved drugs, therapeutics, vaccines.
25
00:01:24,292 --> 00:01:27,837
[narrator] And yet the risk of it
happening again has never been higher.
26
00:01:27,921 --> 00:01:29,172
[man] We've done the math on this.
27
00:01:29,255 --> 00:01:32,550
We estimate there are about five new
emerging diseases happening
28
00:01:32,634 --> 00:01:34,010
somewhere on the planet every year,
29
00:01:34,094 --> 00:01:35,595
and that rate is accelerating.
30
00:01:35,678 --> 00:01:38,139
So it is inevitable that they
will become pandemics.
31
00:01:38,223 --> 00:01:40,391
Mother Nature
is the ultimate bioterrorist.
32
00:01:40,975 --> 00:01:43,770
[narrator] We're in a race,
and the stakes couldn't be higher.
33
00:01:44,646 --> 00:01:49,067
This simulation estimates that a pandemic
today could kill 33 million people
34
00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:50,652
in just six months.
35
00:01:51,319 --> 00:01:57,367
In terms of a death toll, a pandemic would
rival even the gigantic wars of the past.
36
00:01:57,492 --> 00:01:59,202
The economy will shut down.
37
00:01:59,285 --> 00:02:04,415
The cost to humanity will be unbelievable,
and no country will be immune
38
00:02:04,499 --> 00:02:06,584
from the problem this will create.
39
00:02:06,668 --> 00:02:09,504
[narrator] So the question is not,
is the next pandemic coming...?
40
00:02:09,587 --> 00:02:12,757
There are only three things
that are inevitable in this world.
41
00:02:12,841 --> 00:02:14,259
Death, taxes, and flu pandemics.
42
00:02:14,342 --> 00:02:16,594
[narrator]
Or... when is the next pandemic coming?
43
00:02:16,678 --> 00:02:20,390
We estimate there are around
one and a half million viruses in wildlife
44
00:02:20,473 --> 00:02:21,891
that we don't yet know about.
45
00:02:21,975 --> 00:02:25,562
Any one of those could be spilling over
into the human population right now.
46
00:02:25,645 --> 00:02:27,272
[narrator] The question is...
47
00:02:27,355 --> 00:02:28,898
will we be ready for it?
48
00:02:29,315 --> 00:02:32,861
Influenza pandemics
must be taken seriously.
49
00:02:32,944 --> 00:02:36,239
The world is fighting
the worst Ebola epidemic in history.
50
00:02:36,322 --> 00:02:37,574
The stakes couldn't be any higher.
51
00:02:37,657 --> 00:02:40,869
[man] A virus can be just as destructive
as a bomb or a missile.
52
00:02:40,952 --> 00:02:43,788
[man 2] Pathogenic organisms recognize
no boundaries lines.
53
00:02:43,872 --> 00:02:47,709
[woman] Residents believe their town
is ground zero for the swine flu epidemic.
54
00:02:47,792 --> 00:02:50,795
[man 3] All sorts of animals
may be the culprits.
55
00:02:50,879 --> 00:02:52,422
[man 4] A sick person can be healed,
56
00:02:52,505 --> 00:02:55,341
but in the meantime,
he spreads the disease.
57
00:02:55,425 --> 00:02:58,386
[man 5] The campaign
against infectious disease can succeed
58
00:02:58,469 --> 00:02:59,971
only if the public cooperates.
59
00:03:00,054 --> 00:03:03,892
[man 6] We just don't know
what the future is going to hold.
60
00:03:05,727 --> 00:03:08,938
[narrator] Pandemics begin
in a world invisible to the naked eye.
61
00:03:10,106 --> 00:03:13,151
Microbes were likely
the first living things on earth.
62
00:03:13,234 --> 00:03:15,153
Many can't replicate on their own,
63
00:03:15,236 --> 00:03:17,488
so they hijack other living cells.
64
00:03:17,572 --> 00:03:19,365
And today they're all around us.
65
00:03:19,866 --> 00:03:20,950
And on us.
66
00:03:21,701 --> 00:03:22,911
And in us.
67
00:03:23,786 --> 00:03:27,498
Many arrive in peace, but others damage
or kill our body's cells.
68
00:03:28,708 --> 00:03:33,087
Fever, coughing, sneezing, diarrhea...
that's our body fighting back.
69
00:03:34,464 --> 00:03:38,134
But some are so strong,
they can overwhelm our immune system...
70
00:03:38,218 --> 00:03:39,177
and kill us.
71
00:03:40,511 --> 00:03:43,264
Pandemics are mainly caused
by two types of microbes:
72
00:03:43,348 --> 00:03:44,974
bacteria and viruses.
73
00:03:45,058 --> 00:03:50,063
The interesting thing about viruses
is they are supremely adapted to jump
74
00:03:50,146 --> 00:03:51,773
from one species to another.
75
00:03:51,856 --> 00:03:55,151
They're the most likely microbes
to become the next pandemic.
76
00:03:55,735 --> 00:03:58,571
[narrator] As you can probably guess,
viruses that cause bird flu
77
00:03:58,655 --> 00:03:59,614
come from birds.
78
00:04:00,156 --> 00:04:01,783
Swine flu comes from pigs.
79
00:04:02,283 --> 00:04:04,327
HIV came from chimpanzees.
80
00:04:04,410 --> 00:04:06,579
Ebola likely comes from bats.
81
00:04:07,247 --> 00:04:09,374
And several diseases
come from mosquitoes.
82
00:04:10,625 --> 00:04:15,129
When these spill over to humans,
the new virus is called a zoonotic virus
83
00:04:15,213 --> 00:04:17,215
and they're extremely dangerous.
84
00:04:17,298 --> 00:04:22,178
These are viruses which mutate rapidly
and therefore change the surface
85
00:04:22,262 --> 00:04:24,013
and evade immune responses quickly.
86
00:04:24,097 --> 00:04:28,142
They can transform into a new virus
once they get into the human population.
87
00:04:28,226 --> 00:04:30,186
Now those don't happen all the time.
88
00:04:30,270 --> 00:04:31,354
They're quite rare events.
89
00:04:31,437 --> 00:04:34,941
[narrator] But when they do,
the effects can be devastating...
90
00:04:35,024 --> 00:04:38,569
which brings us to a farm
in Kansas a century ago.
91
00:04:39,070 --> 00:04:43,241
Experts aren't certain, but they believe
the 1918 flu pandemic could have started
92
00:04:43,324 --> 00:04:45,952
when an infected bird
and an infected human
93
00:04:46,035 --> 00:04:46,995
met the same pig.
94
00:04:47,662 --> 00:04:51,082
The bird had bird flu,
a type of influenza virus that have been
95
00:04:51,165 --> 00:04:55,044
infecting chickens, geese and ducks
for at least a hundred years.
96
00:04:55,128 --> 00:04:58,840
While the person had a different
influenza strain, the seasonal flu
97
00:04:58,923 --> 00:05:02,510
that had made humans feel stuffed up
and feverish for centuries.
98
00:05:02,593 --> 00:05:05,513
The two viruses couldn't infect
each other's species,
99
00:05:05,596 --> 00:05:07,473
but they could both infect pigs.
100
00:05:07,557 --> 00:05:10,977
And in one pig cell,
those two viruses combined,
101
00:05:11,060 --> 00:05:14,355
creating a new zoonotic virus: H1N1.
102
00:05:14,814 --> 00:05:18,484
These parts from the human virus
gave it the ability to infect humans,
103
00:05:18,568 --> 00:05:21,821
but these parts from the bird virus
prevented immune systems
104
00:05:21,904 --> 00:05:24,782
from recognizing it
and effectively fighting back.
105
00:05:25,616 --> 00:05:26,909
A deadly combination.
106
00:05:27,744 --> 00:05:32,165
It killed somewhere between 50 and 100
million people around the world.
107
00:05:32,248 --> 00:05:35,460
It was unlike anything else in history.
108
00:05:36,544 --> 00:05:38,671
[narrator] You can think of a disease
on two scales:
109
00:05:38,755 --> 00:05:41,090
how contagious it is
and how deadly it is.
110
00:05:41,716 --> 00:05:43,885
Here is the seasonal human flu
111
00:05:43,968 --> 00:05:45,511
while this is the bird flu.
112
00:05:46,054 --> 00:05:48,556
And this is the 1918 combination.
113
00:05:49,140 --> 00:05:51,476
It was so contagious
because it was airborne,
114
00:05:51,559 --> 00:05:55,730
meaning the virus could hang in the air,
infecting anyone who inhaled it.
115
00:05:55,813 --> 00:06:00,735
And a 1918, it infected one
in every three people on Earth.
116
00:06:00,818 --> 00:06:04,405
Then it killed almost 5%
of the world's population.
117
00:06:04,489 --> 00:06:07,241
The final ingredient was human technology.
118
00:06:07,325 --> 00:06:10,578
This flu emerged in the middle
of the first World War.
119
00:06:11,245 --> 00:06:14,916
We were sending people
across from the U.S. into Europe for war
120
00:06:14,999 --> 00:06:16,376
and then we were bringing them back.
121
00:06:16,459 --> 00:06:20,338
So this virus exploited
those travel patterns
122
00:06:20,421 --> 00:06:23,841
and spread around the world
very quickly and very effectively.
123
00:06:23,925 --> 00:06:26,636
[narrator] In fact,
in every past pandemic,
124
00:06:26,719 --> 00:06:31,265
human technology is responsible
for taking diseases around the world.
125
00:06:32,975 --> 00:06:37,146
The Black Death arrived in Europe
on ships in the 14th century.
126
00:06:37,730 --> 00:06:39,816
It was two distinct diseases:
127
00:06:39,899 --> 00:06:44,320
Bubonic plague, which killed
as many as 60% of the people who got it.
128
00:06:44,404 --> 00:06:48,783
And pneumonic plague,
which killed almost everyone who got it.
129
00:06:49,742 --> 00:06:51,494
Then there was smallpox.
130
00:06:51,953 --> 00:06:54,330
It was less deadly than the Black Death,
131
00:06:54,414 --> 00:06:58,584
killing 30% of the people who got it,
but it was more contagious.
132
00:06:59,210 --> 00:07:01,170
Humans spread it around the world.
133
00:07:01,254 --> 00:07:05,883
In the 20th century alone,
it killed around 400 million people.
134
00:07:05,967 --> 00:07:09,178
These other diseases
have also become pandemics.
135
00:07:10,430 --> 00:07:14,851
But eventually, we developed technology
that could defend us.
136
00:07:15,977 --> 00:07:20,231
The practice of isolating travelers
for a time to see if they were infected,
137
00:07:20,314 --> 00:07:21,816
now known as quarantine,
138
00:07:21,899 --> 00:07:24,402
was first developed
during the Black Death.
139
00:07:24,485 --> 00:07:26,404
Then we invented microscopes,
140
00:07:26,487 --> 00:07:29,323
allowing us to see the enemy
for the first time.
141
00:07:30,074 --> 00:07:32,410
Next, we developed antibiotics.
142
00:07:32,493 --> 00:07:36,622
These made these diseases
spread by bacteria far less deadly.
143
00:07:36,706 --> 00:07:40,668
And smallpox led to the development
of the first ever vaccine
144
00:07:40,751 --> 00:07:43,379
which defends us against some viruses.
145
00:07:44,297 --> 00:07:49,051
The way a vaccine works is we get
injected with proteins from the virus
146
00:07:49,135 --> 00:07:50,803
and we create our own antibodies.
147
00:07:50,887 --> 00:07:56,309
These are little molecules that attach
to those proteins and neutralize the virus
148
00:07:56,392 --> 00:07:59,061
and allow it to be swept out of the body.
149
00:07:59,145 --> 00:08:03,941
So when we get infected by a real virus,
we can rapidly create an immune response,
150
00:08:04,025 --> 00:08:06,319
send out these antibodies,
and get rid of the virus.
151
00:08:06,903 --> 00:08:09,489
[narrator] If enough people
in a population get vaccinated,
152
00:08:09,572 --> 00:08:12,950
it's almost impossible
for the disease to spread.
153
00:08:13,034 --> 00:08:16,996
So smallpox was declared eradicated
in 1980.
154
00:08:17,079 --> 00:08:20,708
And these diseases don't cause
nearly the amount of deaths they used to.
155
00:08:21,167 --> 00:08:26,881
And antiretroviral drugs have made viruses
like HIV far less deadly and contagious.
156
00:08:27,548 --> 00:08:31,886
Finally, the internet is helping us detect
and contain diseases earlier.
157
00:08:32,553 --> 00:08:36,891
This is why studies show that fewer people
are contracting infectious diseases today.
158
00:08:37,642 --> 00:08:41,312
But at the same time,
the number of outbreaks is increasing,
159
00:08:41,395 --> 00:08:45,399
and that is largely
because of emerging zoonotic viruses.
160
00:08:45,483 --> 00:08:50,530
Out of an estimated 1.6 million
unknown viruses in wildlife,
161
00:08:50,613 --> 00:08:53,783
we currently know of about 3000.
162
00:08:53,866 --> 00:08:56,536
So it's really less than 0.1%.
163
00:08:56,953 --> 00:08:58,704
[narrator] That means the next pandemic
164
00:08:58,788 --> 00:09:01,082
could be a virus
that we're not prepared for.
165
00:09:01,165 --> 00:09:02,625
[Daszak] We know some pretty lethal ones,
166
00:09:02,708 --> 00:09:05,419
but we expect that there are
others out there that are more lethal,
167
00:09:05,503 --> 00:09:07,255
that are better at being transmitted,
168
00:09:07,338 --> 00:09:10,675
where we've got no drugs and no vaccines.
They're the big risk.
169
00:09:11,217 --> 00:09:13,261
[narrator] This is called Disease X.
170
00:09:13,844 --> 00:09:18,349
And we know we're unprepared
because we've seen them before.
171
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,310
[indistinct chatter]
172
00:09:23,688 --> 00:09:25,940
This is a wet market
in the Lianghua, China.
173
00:09:27,942 --> 00:09:31,821
Unlike markets in much of the West where
animals are already dead when they arrive,
174
00:09:31,904 --> 00:09:34,574
this wet market sells meat
that's very fresh.
175
00:09:35,199 --> 00:09:36,409
It's killed on sight.
176
00:09:37,076 --> 00:09:39,412
That's what makes it a Disease X factory.
177
00:09:40,079 --> 00:09:43,249
Many different animal species
are stacked on top of each other,
178
00:09:43,332 --> 00:09:46,919
their blood and meat mixed,
before being passed from human to human.
179
00:09:48,045 --> 00:09:50,840
All the while,
their viruses are mixing and mutating,
180
00:09:50,923 --> 00:09:53,926
increasing the odds that one
finds its way into humans...
181
00:09:55,136 --> 00:09:59,098
which is likely what happened at a market
here in southern China in 2002.
182
00:09:59,765 --> 00:10:02,768
Back then, some wet markets in China
sold wild animals
183
00:10:02,852 --> 00:10:05,146
like snakes, civet cats, and bats.
184
00:10:05,855 --> 00:10:07,398
And demand for them was high.
185
00:10:08,274 --> 00:10:11,485
On November 16th,
a man in Foshan, China got sick
186
00:10:11,569 --> 00:10:14,488
after preparing a meal
of chicken, cat, and snake.
187
00:10:14,572 --> 00:10:16,032
He had the symptoms of pneumonia.
188
00:10:16,574 --> 00:10:18,492
Fever, cough, and trouble breathing.
189
00:10:18,951 --> 00:10:21,037
When treatments for pneumonia didn't work,
190
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,582
Chinese officials reported it
simply as "atypical pneumonia."
191
00:10:25,166 --> 00:10:26,834
But then it started spreading.
192
00:10:26,917 --> 00:10:28,169
And people started dying.
193
00:10:28,753 --> 00:10:33,299
There were reports of clusters
of respiratory infections
194
00:10:33,382 --> 00:10:35,217
in hospitals in China.
195
00:10:35,301 --> 00:10:37,970
[man] But we're used to that.
There were strains of influenza virus
196
00:10:38,054 --> 00:10:41,724
that caused flu in Asia many times over.
197
00:10:41,807 --> 00:10:45,311
Um... and we always noted them
and there was always concern,
198
00:10:45,394 --> 00:10:48,606
but they were not
particularly scary to us.
199
00:10:48,689 --> 00:10:51,275
But people like the CDC
and the World Health Organization
200
00:10:51,359 --> 00:10:54,987
start to take notice
of these rumors of illness
201
00:10:55,071 --> 00:11:00,284
and went to the Chinese government
and asked, "What is going on?"
202
00:11:00,368 --> 00:11:04,413
And the way that the world found out
about it is that someone
203
00:11:04,497 --> 00:11:08,501
from one of those towns
decided to go to Hong Kong.
204
00:11:14,715 --> 00:11:17,885
[McKenna] Hong Kong was
a uniquely bad place for this to happen.
205
00:11:18,344 --> 00:11:22,390
[narrator] In 2003, Hong Kong was home
to about seven million people.
206
00:11:23,224 --> 00:11:26,143
Over 16 million tourists
visited each year,
207
00:11:26,227 --> 00:11:30,606
and over 500 international flights
took off and landed there every day.
208
00:11:30,690 --> 00:11:33,275
On February 21st, one man arrived.
209
00:11:33,359 --> 00:11:34,777
He was already feeling sick.
210
00:11:36,404 --> 00:11:38,072
He checked into the Metropole hotel
211
00:11:38,155 --> 00:11:40,449
and headed up to his room
on the 9th floor.
212
00:11:40,533 --> 00:11:42,410
There, he threw up or coughed,
213
00:11:42,493 --> 00:11:45,955
spewing droplets
all over the elevator and hallway.
214
00:11:46,038 --> 00:11:48,541
That's how he infected 16 people
215
00:11:48,624 --> 00:11:51,502
who would spread the disease
around the world.
216
00:11:51,585 --> 00:11:54,130
The man in this room
boarded a flight the following day,
217
00:11:54,213 --> 00:11:58,384
arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam,
and checked himself into the hospital,
218
00:11:58,467 --> 00:12:01,053
where he infected doctors and nurses.
219
00:12:01,137 --> 00:12:04,056
One of those doctors
then took the disease to Bangkok.
220
00:12:04,807 --> 00:12:08,728
That's when the World Health Organization
declared an international emergency
221
00:12:08,811 --> 00:12:11,439
and officially named the disease.
222
00:12:11,522 --> 00:12:13,733
Severe acute respiratory syndrome.
223
00:12:13,816 --> 00:12:15,234
Or SARS for short.
224
00:12:15,609 --> 00:12:17,945
[narrator] A few days later,
scientists found the cause:
225
00:12:18,028 --> 00:12:20,322
a virus they had never seen before.
226
00:12:21,657 --> 00:12:23,409
Back at the Metropole,
a woman in this room
227
00:12:23,492 --> 00:12:25,703
flew home to Toronto and died.
228
00:12:25,786 --> 00:12:27,997
Her son checked himself into the hospital.
229
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:29,832
I remember sitting there,
my kids were there,
230
00:12:29,915 --> 00:12:33,961
and I was watching the news
and all of a sudden I saw
231
00:12:34,044 --> 00:12:37,506
a picture of my hospital,
Mount Sinai Hospital, on the news.
232
00:12:37,590 --> 00:12:42,094
That was the first time it hit home
that this was going to be a problem.
233
00:12:42,178 --> 00:12:47,892
It was about a week later
when we identified
234
00:12:47,975 --> 00:12:52,146
that there were a substantial number
of staff at the hospital
235
00:12:52,229 --> 00:12:53,606
who were also ill with SARS.
236
00:12:53,689 --> 00:12:56,734
Who's going to be on call on Tuesday?
We have to get somebody else.
237
00:12:56,817 --> 00:12:58,944
What was their job?
Who's going to fill in for them?
238
00:12:59,028 --> 00:13:02,740
Sometimes just losing one
senior resident in our department
239
00:13:02,823 --> 00:13:04,533
throws the whole department into chaos.
240
00:13:04,617 --> 00:13:06,202
I was feeling fine when I got home,
241
00:13:06,285 --> 00:13:10,372
but I woke up in the middle of the night
not feeling well with a fever and...
242
00:13:10,456 --> 00:13:12,625
then I knew that was probably what I had.
243
00:13:12,708 --> 00:13:16,295
[narrator] By late March,
47 hospital staff were sick in Toronto
244
00:13:16,378 --> 00:13:18,380
and hundreds more were in quarantine,
245
00:13:18,464 --> 00:13:19,924
including Allison.
246
00:13:20,007 --> 00:13:22,676
This was one of the scariest things
about SARS.
247
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,930
It's early symptoms were subtle
and hard to identify,
248
00:13:26,013 --> 00:13:28,390
causing outbreaks
even in advanced hospitals.
249
00:13:29,225 --> 00:13:31,727
Back in Hong Kong,
a nightmare was taking place.
250
00:13:31,811 --> 00:13:33,938
SARS was spreading faster than ever.
251
00:13:34,563 --> 00:13:37,733
A man with SARS was in this unit
of an apartment complex.
252
00:13:37,817 --> 00:13:40,361
He had diarrhea
and when he used his toilet,
253
00:13:40,444 --> 00:13:43,864
the SARS virus was carried
through the pipes to the unit below
254
00:13:43,948 --> 00:13:47,868
where a fan blew the virus
back up into the building's ventilation
255
00:13:47,952 --> 00:13:49,912
and into the apartments above.
256
00:13:49,995 --> 00:13:53,123
Then the wind was likely blowing the virus
to nearby buildings,
257
00:13:53,207 --> 00:13:55,209
making it much more difficult to contain.
258
00:13:55,292 --> 00:13:57,086
[man] That's truly a nightmare scenario.
259
00:13:57,169 --> 00:14:00,756
You're not physically in contact
with a known infected person.
260
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,717
So it's much harder to track
because we don't necessarily know
261
00:14:03,801 --> 00:14:06,053
the source of the contamination
or the infection.
262
00:14:06,595 --> 00:14:10,724
[narrator] In total, 329 people were
infected in this apartment complex
263
00:14:10,808 --> 00:14:12,476
and hundreds were quarantined.
264
00:14:13,853 --> 00:14:15,479
By now the world was panicking.
265
00:14:16,522 --> 00:14:19,233
[woman] The fear that dogs and cats
can carry SARS
266
00:14:19,316 --> 00:14:23,237
has led some residents in Beijing
to abandon their cherished animals.
267
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,239
[woman 2] Taxi authorities
have set up points
268
00:14:25,322 --> 00:14:27,533
to test cab drivers for high temperatures,
269
00:14:27,616 --> 00:14:29,451
one of the symptoms of SARS.
270
00:14:29,535 --> 00:14:32,496
In part, it's all down to how much
we, the public,
271
00:14:32,621 --> 00:14:34,415
trust what we're told by officials.
272
00:14:34,498 --> 00:14:38,335
Is it absolutely out of the question
that this could have been something
273
00:14:38,419 --> 00:14:42,756
inflicted upon people
by a terrorist agent of some sort?
274
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,218
I think in March of the year 2003,
we exclude nothing.
275
00:14:46,302 --> 00:14:50,556
[narrator] 1755 people were infected
in Hong Kong and 300 died.
276
00:14:50,639 --> 00:14:54,643
In Toronto,
251 were infected and 41 died.
277
00:14:54,727 --> 00:14:57,563
With cases
in at least 26 other countries...
278
00:14:58,105 --> 00:15:03,235
ultimately, SARS killed 774 people,
about 10% of those it infected.
279
00:15:03,319 --> 00:15:06,739
But then SARS did something
totally unexpected...
280
00:15:06,822 --> 00:15:10,034
The funny thing about SARS is that
after a while it just kind of goes away.
281
00:15:10,117 --> 00:15:12,536
SARS just wasn't that hardy a virus.
282
00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:15,831
We didn't know that when it started,
but that's how it turned out.
283
00:15:15,915 --> 00:15:18,667
But I don't think that's a success story.
284
00:15:18,751 --> 00:15:20,127
I think a lot of that is just luck.
285
00:15:20,586 --> 00:15:22,838
[narrator]
Because a lot of mistakes were made.
286
00:15:22,922 --> 00:15:25,382
Chinese health officials only admitted
there was an outbreak
287
00:15:25,466 --> 00:15:29,929
after 18 people had already died,
and hundreds of others were sick.
288
00:15:30,429 --> 00:15:33,432
[in Mandarin] We will try all means to
reverse and improve upon the weaknesses
289
00:15:33,515 --> 00:15:35,184
and faulty aspects of our work.
290
00:15:35,267 --> 00:15:38,437
[narrator] After the SARS epidemic,
the World Health Organization
291
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,566
brought together 196 countries,
and they all committed to improving
292
00:15:42,650 --> 00:15:48,572
their ability to "detect, assess, notify,
and report public health events,"
293
00:15:48,656 --> 00:15:49,823
including outbreaks.
294
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:54,870
In 2014, only a third of them
were in compliance.
295
00:15:55,746 --> 00:16:01,585
The big problem with the pandemic
is we don't know when it will come.
296
00:16:01,669 --> 00:16:04,338
And so it's very easy to put off
to another day.
297
00:16:04,421 --> 00:16:07,883
It really takes an extraordinary act
of political will to say,
298
00:16:07,967 --> 00:16:11,553
"Yes, right now things
don't look that bad,
299
00:16:11,637 --> 00:16:13,889
but we're going to send funding
to public health anyway
300
00:16:13,973 --> 00:16:16,850
because we know that someday
it will be bad."
301
00:16:16,934 --> 00:16:22,606
[narrator] SARS showed how far and fast
a virus can travel in our modern world.
302
00:16:22,690 --> 00:16:25,442
SARS went around the world in weeks.
303
00:16:25,526 --> 00:16:29,279
It's entirely possible that the next
will go around the world in days.
304
00:16:29,363 --> 00:16:31,448
That's far faster
than we could ever catch up.
305
00:16:31,865 --> 00:16:34,743
[narrator] Which means,
if we want to stop the next pandemic,
306
00:16:34,827 --> 00:16:37,621
our best bet is catching it at the source.
307
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,587
SARS began as a virus living silently
in a wild animal.
308
00:16:45,671 --> 00:16:49,216
Experts believe it was bats
here in southern China.
309
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,178
These scientists have been coming
to these caves since the outbreak,
310
00:16:53,554 --> 00:16:57,266
catching bats and scanning them
for viruses similar to SARS.
311
00:16:59,518 --> 00:17:00,853
And they're finding a lot,
312
00:17:00,936 --> 00:17:03,856
which is allowing them
to create an early warning system.
313
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:08,360
And when we find them we raise the alert,
and the government of China comes in
314
00:17:08,444 --> 00:17:12,197
and tries to reduce the exposure
of those populations to viruses.
315
00:17:12,281 --> 00:17:15,826
[narrator] China is not the only place
these viruses are being found.
316
00:17:15,909 --> 00:17:20,080
This map shows where a new virus
is most likely to emerge.
317
00:17:20,164 --> 00:17:25,669
The front line for disease emergence
are places like the end of the road
318
00:17:25,753 --> 00:17:28,130
in a tropical forest
where someone's just built
319
00:17:28,213 --> 00:17:31,050
a new mining concession.
People have moved in.
320
00:17:31,133 --> 00:17:34,053
There's no food supplies so they go out
and hunt wildlife.
321
00:17:34,136 --> 00:17:38,390
Or it's a farm in Southeast Asia
that's been expanding and intensifying
322
00:17:38,932 --> 00:17:42,853
that has bats nearby that spread viruses
into the pigs in the farm.
323
00:17:43,395 --> 00:17:48,192
This is a revolutionary way to defend
ourselves against future pandemics,
324
00:17:48,275 --> 00:17:50,736
but it won't catch every new disease.
325
00:17:50,819 --> 00:17:53,697
For that, we need to improve our vaccines.
326
00:17:54,239 --> 00:17:57,659
If a disease comes along
that we haven't seen before,
327
00:17:57,743 --> 00:18:00,162
typically it would take four or five years
328
00:18:00,245 --> 00:18:02,664
to come up with a vaccine
against that disease.
329
00:18:02,748 --> 00:18:06,543
And new technologies
might shorten those times.
330
00:18:06,877 --> 00:18:10,047
[narrator] That's why an organization
called CEPI was founded.
331
00:18:10,130 --> 00:18:13,258
And they're developing a vaccine
for Disease X.
332
00:18:13,342 --> 00:18:16,804
Traditional vaccines inject
protein molecules from a virus,
333
00:18:16,887 --> 00:18:20,557
and manufacturing these proteins
is a long and expensive process.
334
00:18:20,641 --> 00:18:23,310
But this new vaccine doesn't use proteins.
335
00:18:23,393 --> 00:18:28,690
It injects genetic material that tells
the body to produce those proteins itself.
336
00:18:28,774 --> 00:18:33,320
Your body becomes the manufacturer,
creating the protein molecules
337
00:18:33,403 --> 00:18:35,280
and then the antibodies for them.
338
00:18:35,364 --> 00:18:38,700
Scientists can customize
the genetic material to get the body
339
00:18:38,784 --> 00:18:41,995
to produce the protein molecules
of almost any virus.
340
00:18:42,079 --> 00:18:44,623
Once they figure out
how to deliver this into the body,
341
00:18:44,706 --> 00:18:47,960
it could reduce the time
it takes to develop a new vaccine
342
00:18:48,043 --> 00:18:51,213
from several years... to just 16 weeks.
343
00:18:52,256 --> 00:18:57,219
Meanwhile, scientists are trying
to develop a universal influenza vaccine,
344
00:18:57,302 --> 00:19:02,266
one shot that could immunize us
from every possible flu strain for life.
345
00:19:02,349 --> 00:19:06,353
None of those universal flu vaccines,
as they're called,
346
00:19:06,436 --> 00:19:09,106
are anywhere near
to being deployed in the population yet,
347
00:19:09,189 --> 00:19:12,192
but the U.S. federal government
and governments in Europe
348
00:19:12,276 --> 00:19:16,071
have been supporting that research
in a way that they didn't
349
00:19:16,155 --> 00:19:19,199
a couple of decades before,
because they understand
350
00:19:19,283 --> 00:19:23,620
that flu really is an eternal
and very serious threat.
351
00:19:24,121 --> 00:19:29,209
[narrator] The truth is human technology
has made the next pandemic inevitable.
352
00:19:29,293 --> 00:19:30,752
Deforestation is bringing
353
00:19:30,836 --> 00:19:34,256
more wild animals
into contact with more people.
354
00:19:34,339 --> 00:19:38,218
And factory farming
is pushing animals closer together,
355
00:19:38,302 --> 00:19:42,639
giving their viruses more opportunities
to combine into one that could infect us.
356
00:19:43,182 --> 00:19:45,767
Then we give them
more ways than ever to spread.
357
00:19:45,851 --> 00:19:48,896
But human technology
has stopped pandemics before,
358
00:19:48,979 --> 00:19:51,148
and it's our only chance
against the next one.
359
00:19:51,231 --> 00:19:56,195
We know that, because we've been
in this race since life on Earth began.
360
00:19:56,278 --> 00:19:59,323
When a pandemic comes along, of any size,
361
00:19:59,406 --> 00:20:02,492
we always look back and wish
we'd invested more.
362
00:20:06,163 --> 00:20:09,082
We are far short
of what needs to be done.
363
00:20:11,168 --> 00:20:13,170
[theme song playing]