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[gentle music]

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[no audio]

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[gentle music]

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[gentle music]

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- [Larry] Just about everybody
that's into astronomy

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has this sort of wonderment
about the universe,

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its vastness, its
mystery, all that we know

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and so much more
that we don't know.

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[gentle music]

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- [Elise] Everyone is
fascinated with the cosmos.

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There are so many unknowns.

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We are really just
bumbling in the dark.

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[gentle music]

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[gentle music continues]

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- [Announcer] All
right, keynote speaker

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for the evening is
Dr. Larry Molnar,

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"The Lives and Dramatic Deaths
of Contact Binary Stars."

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Dr. Larry Molnar.

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[audience clapping]

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- Thank you for having me here.

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I always enjoy telling
stories about the stars.

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Tonight and tomorrow you're
going to hear a new story.

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This hasn't been told on the
lecture circuit all around.

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You're hearing it
for the first time.

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I did not really
know when I began

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where I was going to end up.

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It's been a bit of
a rollercoaster.

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I didn't always know what
was gonna happen next,

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and it's actually a story

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where there's still a
few pages left to write,

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and particularly the topic
for tonight is the search

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for the next star
that's going to explode.

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[gentle music]

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[no audio]

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[crowd chattering indistinctly]

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- Well, we're on the top of
the science building right now

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on Calvin's campus, waiting
to see a total lunar eclipse

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at the point of perigee.

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So that means

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that the media would call
it a blood moon super moon.

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[attendees chattering
indistinctly]

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- [Larry] Yeah, and a lot
of people were upstairs,

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just looking at the mirror

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and hear about what
the observatory does,

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and it's better PR if
the clouds are clear,

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but I think people
know we're here.

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They might well come back
and that's exciting to me.

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[attendees chattering
indistinctly]

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- Astronomy is one of
the oldest sciences,

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in part because everyone
can participate.

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If you're a sheep
herder 5,000 years ago,

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if you sit out at
night, you can observe

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that the planet's move over
the course of the year,

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and that next year at
about the same time

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the constellations will
be in the same place.

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So there's an important
sense in which

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these are the earliest
patterns that humans can see.

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- Even in ancient times,
Aristotle understood

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that the Earth was a sphere
and his proof for that.

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- [Matthew] Larry is a
passionate astronomer.

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He loves astronomy, and his
default, his assumption is

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that everyone should
love astronomy.

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- The right size to
exactly block the sun.

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Sorry about the clouds.

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Everybody gets a free voucher

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to come and visit the
observatory on another night.

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We are open Monday night
through Thursday night,

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when it's clear.

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We have so many good things you
can see with this telescope.

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Just come back another night.

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- Larry's a very social guy.

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When Larry joined the
physics department at Calvin,

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he noticed that there weren't
standing social events,

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and he felt like it would
be a really great idea

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to get students together
so they could get a chance

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to get to know each other.

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[all laughing]

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- [Student] Oh, that's bad.

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- [Student] Now I send it flying

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about 30 feet through the air.

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[gentle music]

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- Larry loves astronomy,
and as a scientist,

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is perhaps one of the most
careful people I know,

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but that's so perfectly
balanced with somebody

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who cares deeply about
a community around him,

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who's very involved
in church life.

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He's an example to many of
us on that front as well.

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[choir singing faintly]

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[choir singing faintly]

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[door rattling]

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[lock rattling]

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- [Larry] I did my graduate
study at Harvard University,

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master's and doctoral degrees.

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[roof buzzing]

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- Larry was, I thought,
unbelievably smart,

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meticulous, and already
an excellent scientist

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when he came here,

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and it's sort of
something, I think,

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you almost can't teach somebody,

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is how to be a really
good scientist.

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- Of those students
that graduated

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about the same time I did, one
is a senior official at NASA,

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one was the president of
"Sky and Telescope" magazine.

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Others are faculty
members at Yale

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and other institutions
like that.

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I don't know of any who
are currently teaching

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at a small liberal arts college.

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This is linear, it's going up.

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And then this time,
it's today's date here.

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- [Student] You've got a
really, really amazing memory.

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- So the star that
led to this prediction

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was actually first investigated
by an undergraduate student.

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I've heard of graduate students

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or postdocs being the
ones to make a discovery,

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but it's exceedingly rare
that it's the undergraduate

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who's looking at the raw data

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and who is the one who
makes the discovery,

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so that's really cool.

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[gentle music]

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- Daniel van Noord, I was
the original discoverer

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of the period change
in KIC 983227,

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and the student
researcher who did

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most of the preliminary
analysis on the system.

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I will say I didn't actually
discover the star itself.

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- The star was originally
identified as a variable star

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in a survey that I used

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for my PhD thesis
at Michigan State.

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I was presenting a short
talk on this particular star,

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and it was very fortuitous
because, at the time,

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I was looking for
experts in the field

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who could help me
interpret what was going on

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with this very strange star.

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- I volunteered and said,
"I can figure that out."

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- His interest and his alertness

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has actually started down a path

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which now is going way
beyond what he imagined

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at that moment.

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[gentle music]

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Other people could, in
principle, recognize

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this is an interesting
star, but they didn't.

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[suspenseful music]

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- We have this image of science
that you see in the movies

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and in television and books,

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and it's sort of a
eureka moment, right?

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You have the badly
dressed scientist

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sitting in a dark room, working
on something by themselves,

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and then they make a discovery,

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and then they run out of
the room and they say,

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"I have discovered this thing,"

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and then everyone now
knows that to be true

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and they believe it.

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None of those
aspects is correct.

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Very rare for a scientist
to work by themselves.

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It's almost always in a group.

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When it comes to the
moment of discovery,

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there's never a
moment of discovery,

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but one person says, "Hey,
I just saw something funny.

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Can you come take
a look at this?"

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[gentle music]

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- [Larry] This is a star
that was changing its light,

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getting brighter and
dimmer, brighter and dimmer

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every 11 hours.

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It would go brighter
and dimmer twice.

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And the question is

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is that because the star
is really getting brighter

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and dimmer, that it's a pulsing,

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something inherent to the star,

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or is it an artifact of
how we look at the star?

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Binary stars, as they
orbit around each other,

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one star eclipses the other,

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and so it will
look fainter for us

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just as we see it at
different phases of the orbit.

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What we were able to
show is that, indeed,

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it is a binary star,

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but as we put all
the data together,

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we came to a very
striking pattern.

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[suspenseful music]

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- They presented
this initial result

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where they had
looked at the star,

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they had figured out that
it was a binary star,

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and they had realized,

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"We think it's starting to
spin faster and faster."

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- What does that mean?

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It means the stars actually
have to be getting closer.

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Well, these stars
are already so close,

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they're nearly touching.

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How much closer can you get?

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They have to be pushed
into each other.

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They have to begin to merge.

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That event can
release as much energy

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as the Sun would release
in its entire lifetime.

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- That's when it
was hitting me, wow,

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this is just a few years away.

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Nobody's ever seen
anything of this kind.

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I raised my hand and
pointed out to the students

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that, "This is
important, people."

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- What we're talking
about is a prediction

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that a pair of stars
are going to collide

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and essentially blow up.

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Nobody has ever been
able to do that before.

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- A lot of people know that
things will blow up eventually,

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and they publish articles
about it all the time,

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but my prediction is

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that this thing is going
to become a red nova

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in three to five
years from right now.

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- That's an incredible
needle in the haystack.

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It's sort of like one
in 10 million stars

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would go through this
in a human lifetime.

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- It only happens when
you're not looking.

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It only happens if you had a
lifetime of a million years

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that you'd be there to see it.

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- The odds of it are very small,

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00:10:49,856 --> 00:10:52,859
the odds that someone would
be looking at the right stars

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at the right time.

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- Will there be predicted,

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00:10:58,002 --> 00:10:59,935
now for the first
time in history,

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the appearance of a new star?

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00:11:04,491 --> 00:11:08,668
That's what Larry
Molnar is looking for.

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00:11:13,914 --> 00:11:16,537
[dog barking]

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00:11:18,194 --> 00:11:21,266
[birds chirping]

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00:11:23,890 --> 00:11:26,030
- Generations of students
have really liked Casey

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'cause he's just so friendly.

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He's almost 16.

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[Casey yelping]

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Oh my.

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You know, we run the telescope
robotically overnight

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and sometimes he'll wake up
in the middle of the night

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and then, 'cause he
woke me up, I'll catch

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that the dome had gotten
stuck or something,

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so I give him credit

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for catching a few astronomical
problems in the bud.

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- There girl, there you are.

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Yes, she likes to go for a walk.

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[door thuds]

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00:12:02,169 --> 00:12:05,448
[dog barking]

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00:12:05,483 --> 00:12:06,415
Hello.

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There's a good girl.

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00:12:08,244 --> 00:12:09,452
Yeah, there's a good girl.

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00:12:11,213 --> 00:12:13,629
Got my tail up 'cause
this is my street.

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Merging stars are
thought to happen

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00:12:18,082 --> 00:12:20,498
about once every 10
years in our galaxy,

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so there must be
one that's out there

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00:12:22,465 --> 00:12:23,950
that's only a few years
away from blowing up.

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00:12:23,984 --> 00:12:25,779
It's a question of which one.

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In a sense, I guess, the
thought occurred to us

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two years ago that
it was a possibility,

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but we didn't think
of it seriously.

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In that first year, what
we saw is it continued

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to get faster, and it's
been keeping right on it,

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and that's where sort of the
tension melts, if you will.

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I still have to say
with one part of me,

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it just seems unlikely
that it's gonna explode

253
00:12:50,148 --> 00:12:51,701
because statistics are

254
00:12:51,736 --> 00:12:53,358
how do you know it's
gonna be this star?

255
00:12:53,393 --> 00:12:55,809
There's so many other
stars it could be,

256
00:12:55,844 --> 00:12:59,468
but if it's not going
to, it's teasing me.

257
00:12:59,502 --> 00:13:01,988
If it's not going to, why
is it continuing to do

258
00:13:02,022 --> 00:13:04,853
exactly what I've predicted
that it's going to do?

259
00:13:06,095 --> 00:13:08,718
Having realized that
even if it isn't this one

260
00:13:08,753 --> 00:13:13,240
that goes off, that there is
a star out there somewhere,

261
00:13:14,379 --> 00:13:16,002
and the thought is we
should look for it.

262
00:13:16,036 --> 00:13:19,350
[suspenseful music]

263
00:13:21,455 --> 00:13:26,253
The idea of novi, the idea
of stars that just blow up,

264
00:13:26,288 --> 00:13:29,567
get so much brighter,
10,000 times brighter

265
00:13:29,601 --> 00:13:32,846
than they were before,
such that you see a star

266
00:13:32,881 --> 00:13:34,952
where you didn't see one before,

267
00:13:34,986 --> 00:13:36,539
that has historical significance

268
00:13:36,574 --> 00:13:39,646
for the very foundation
of science and astronomy.

269
00:13:41,579 --> 00:13:43,339
- [Matthew] Before
the Renaissance,

270
00:13:43,374 --> 00:13:45,169
the European understanding
of the cosmos was that,

271
00:13:45,203 --> 00:13:48,310
by definition, it
did not change.

272
00:13:48,344 --> 00:13:51,520
[gentle music]

273
00:13:51,554 --> 00:13:55,179
- [Larry] Aristotle's science
was the heavens are immutable.

274
00:13:55,213 --> 00:13:59,114
They go around and round in
cycles, but never anything new,

275
00:13:59,148 --> 00:14:00,529
never anything missing.

276
00:14:01,702 --> 00:14:04,878
- [Elise] That worldview
dominated for millennia.

277
00:14:04,913 --> 00:14:06,190
- [Matthew] And then one day,

278
00:14:06,224 --> 00:14:08,364
this Danish astronomer,
Tycho Brahe,

279
00:14:08,399 --> 00:14:10,056
walks outside and as
he tells the story,

280
00:14:10,090 --> 00:14:14,612
he looked up in the sky, and
he knew the night sky so well

281
00:14:14,646 --> 00:14:18,478
that he could see that there
was a new star in the sky.

282
00:14:18,512 --> 00:14:23,724
- [Owen] A nova as it was
called in Latin, new star.

283
00:14:24,864 --> 00:14:28,660
It was so bright that
it could be seen at dusk

284
00:14:28,695 --> 00:14:31,871
when other stars were just
beginning to come out.

285
00:14:32,941 --> 00:14:34,804
- [Matthew] And that
might not shock you,

286
00:14:34,839 --> 00:14:38,532
unless you had been deeply
trained in this tradition

287
00:14:38,567 --> 00:14:41,742
that, by definition, the
sky can never change.

288
00:14:42,743 --> 00:14:45,229
- [Owen] It indicated
that the truths

289
00:14:45,263 --> 00:14:47,887
that had been handed
down for generations

290
00:14:47,921 --> 00:14:50,682
were not necessarily final.

291
00:14:51,787 --> 00:14:54,997
- It changed what seemed
to be unchangeable.

292
00:14:55,032 --> 00:14:59,450
It was that one little dot
that begins all the questioning

293
00:14:59,484 --> 00:15:01,555
about the nature of the cosmos.

294
00:15:01,590 --> 00:15:06,836
If a new star can appear,
then what else might be true?

295
00:15:07,354 --> 00:15:09,701
[tranquil music]

296
00:15:11,289 --> 00:15:13,774
- Here we are hundreds
of years later

297
00:15:13,809 --> 00:15:16,812
with a prospect, again,
of a naked eye nova.

298
00:15:18,710 --> 00:15:21,713
- Stars do not
explode every day.

299
00:15:21,748 --> 00:15:25,096
One of the things that
makes the prediction

300
00:15:25,131 --> 00:15:29,721
of a luminous red
nova, something that
excites all of us,

301
00:15:29,756 --> 00:15:32,966
is that if this
thing does pop off,

302
00:15:33,001 --> 00:15:35,279
it's going to be easy to see.

303
00:15:35,313 --> 00:15:37,246
It's going to be
a naked eye object

304
00:15:37,281 --> 00:15:40,249
seen against the background of
the constellation of Cygnus,

305
00:15:40,284 --> 00:15:43,908
the swan, which is one of the
more prominent constellations

306
00:15:43,943 --> 00:15:47,153
in the sky, and that will make
it quite precedent setting

307
00:15:47,187 --> 00:15:48,568
because we won't
have seen anything

308
00:15:48,602 --> 00:15:50,259
that bright in the sky appear

309
00:15:50,294 --> 00:15:54,574
where no other star was seen
before in centuries, basically.

310
00:15:55,471 --> 00:15:58,405
[gentle music]

311
00:16:01,305 --> 00:16:02,996
- [Larry] Hi Dan, welcome back.

312
00:16:03,031 --> 00:16:04,446
- [Dan] Can you hear me?

313
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,172
- I can hear you,
but I find it curious

314
00:16:06,206 --> 00:16:09,623
that the main console for the
weather station is still blank

315
00:16:09,658 --> 00:16:11,556
after your reboot there.

316
00:16:11,591 --> 00:16:15,319
Our computer hasn't worked
properly over the last year,

317
00:16:15,353 --> 00:16:16,941
which has really limited us

318
00:16:16,976 --> 00:16:19,461
just when we're trying
to do real research,

319
00:16:19,495 --> 00:16:20,841
crashing in the
middle of the night,

320
00:16:20,876 --> 00:16:23,016
not taking the data
we asked it to take.

321
00:16:24,155 --> 00:16:25,950
We brought out a new
computer with the hope

322
00:16:25,985 --> 00:16:28,504
that all of the power
of the telescope

323
00:16:28,539 --> 00:16:29,989
will be unleashed again.

324
00:16:32,888 --> 00:16:35,408
- What's counterintuitive
about the discovery

325
00:16:35,442 --> 00:16:38,411
that Molnar has made
is you would think

326
00:16:38,445 --> 00:16:40,723
that that would come out
of a large collaboration

327
00:16:40,758 --> 00:16:42,932
where you have many
eyes on the sky.

328
00:16:44,037 --> 00:16:46,695
- Our telescope setup
is small science.

329
00:16:46,729 --> 00:16:49,698
It's this 16-inch mirror
that the telescope uses

330
00:16:49,732 --> 00:16:51,872
to collect the
light from the sky.

331
00:16:51,907 --> 00:16:56,670
Big science telescopes are
at least 10 times that big.

332
00:16:58,086 --> 00:17:00,674
- [Karen] The field of astronomy
has been leaping forward.

333
00:17:00,709 --> 00:17:03,643
A lot of the observatories now
are looking at eight meter,

334
00:17:03,677 --> 00:17:05,369
10 meter, 12 meter,

335
00:17:05,403 --> 00:17:09,131
and in the future, 25 meter,
30 meter, 40 meter-telescopes,

336
00:17:09,166 --> 00:17:10,546
and these are the size

337
00:17:10,581 --> 00:17:13,066
of a small football
stadium, basically.

338
00:17:13,101 --> 00:17:16,035
[tranquil music]

339
00:17:17,277 --> 00:17:19,348
- [Larry] So yeah, on the
one hand, it's gonna be

340
00:17:19,383 --> 00:17:21,316
who is this guy exactly?

341
00:17:21,350 --> 00:17:22,869
How is he coming up

342
00:17:22,903 --> 00:17:25,699
with this exciting
discovery when we're not?

343
00:17:25,734 --> 00:17:29,289
But actually, you might
consider it the opposite way,

344
00:17:29,324 --> 00:17:30,911
the large telescope,

345
00:17:30,946 --> 00:17:33,638
you never have much observing
time on any one object.

346
00:17:33,673 --> 00:17:35,916
That means there's a
whole class of questions

347
00:17:35,951 --> 00:17:39,092
they can't answer,
questions that involve

348
00:17:39,127 --> 00:17:41,094
how things change over time.

349
00:17:41,129 --> 00:17:42,854
[tranquil music]

350
00:17:42,889 --> 00:17:46,479
- There's only a handful of
these giant research telescopes.

351
00:17:46,513 --> 00:17:48,791
You can't tie them
up night after night,

352
00:17:48,826 --> 00:17:53,934
monitoring a star that
may or may not erupt.

353
00:17:53,969 --> 00:17:56,903
[tranquil music]

354
00:17:58,284 --> 00:18:01,114
- [Larry] How would a astronomer
from a bigger institution

355
00:18:01,149 --> 00:18:02,909
have done the 18 months

356
00:18:02,943 --> 00:18:04,807
of follow-up
observations we've done?

357
00:18:04,842 --> 00:18:08,673
We've done tens of thousands
of images of this star

358
00:18:08,708 --> 00:18:11,435
since it first came
to our attention.

359
00:18:11,469 --> 00:18:14,679
[tranquil music]

360
00:18:14,714 --> 00:18:16,371
- I don't know if
other astronomers

361
00:18:16,405 --> 00:18:19,960
would have the freedom of
mind even to sort of pause

362
00:18:19,995 --> 00:18:22,204
and say, "What is this
thing we've seen in the sky

363
00:18:22,239 --> 00:18:23,447
and what might this mean?

364
00:18:23,481 --> 00:18:25,173
What might it imply?"

365
00:18:25,207 --> 00:18:27,968
[tranquil music]

366
00:18:28,003 --> 00:18:29,763
- At a less
distinguished university,

367
00:18:29,798 --> 00:18:32,318
sometimes you have more
intellectual freedom.

368
00:18:32,352 --> 00:18:33,733
The downside, of course,

369
00:18:33,767 --> 00:18:35,010
is that you don't
have the resources.

370
00:18:35,044 --> 00:18:36,598
So in a weird way,

371
00:18:36,632 --> 00:18:40,015
modern academia pushes
resources towards the people

372
00:18:40,049 --> 00:18:43,605
who are doing the
most incremental

373
00:18:43,639 --> 00:18:45,917
and least groundbreaking work,

374
00:18:45,952 --> 00:18:49,783
and the people who are doing
the really exciting, risky work

375
00:18:49,818 --> 00:18:52,303
are displaced from
those resources.

376
00:18:52,338 --> 00:18:55,168
[bag rustling]

377
00:18:55,203 --> 00:18:58,309
- [Larry] Cleaning the mirror
is a very delicate thing.

378
00:18:58,344 --> 00:19:00,380
Everything else is a
small piece, can be fixed,

379
00:19:00,415 --> 00:19:01,830
can be repaired, whatever,

380
00:19:01,864 --> 00:19:03,763
but the mirror you're
gonna have right.

381
00:19:03,797 --> 00:19:06,041
We don't have any
formal room to do it in,

382
00:19:06,075 --> 00:19:09,044
so we just have to do
it extremely carefully.

383
00:19:09,078 --> 00:19:11,633
Any scratch you have,
you have forever.

384
00:19:11,667 --> 00:19:14,567
You break the mirror,
we have no telescope.

385
00:19:17,984 --> 00:19:21,229
Jason asked me if he dropped it,

386
00:19:21,263 --> 00:19:23,541
whether he'd have
a job in the fall.

387
00:19:25,819 --> 00:19:26,958
- The answer was "No."

388
00:19:26,993 --> 00:19:28,857
- [Larry] The answer was "No."

389
00:19:29,961 --> 00:19:32,240
- [Jason] Okay, have
to be honest, right?

390
00:19:34,173 --> 00:19:36,244
- [Larry] While I'm
holding that together,

391
00:19:36,278 --> 00:19:38,211
you can take out the
last three screws.

392
00:19:38,246 --> 00:19:40,075
So I'm gonna stand
in the middle here

393
00:19:40,109 --> 00:19:42,905
and actually just put my
head right against that.

394
00:19:47,358 --> 00:19:50,189
[feet shuffling]

395
00:19:51,983 --> 00:19:53,226
[phone ringing]

396
00:19:53,261 --> 00:19:56,264
Oh dear, could you pull
that out of my pocket?

397
00:19:56,298 --> 00:19:57,334
- [Jason] Just like in class.

398
00:19:57,368 --> 00:19:58,749
Where is it?

399
00:19:58,783 --> 00:20:00,337
- [Larry] It's in my
left pocket there.

400
00:20:00,371 --> 00:20:02,822
[phone ringing]

401
00:20:02,856 --> 00:20:05,031
- [Jason] Hello,
Larry Molnar's phone.

402
00:20:06,895 --> 00:20:09,587
- I think there's the
romance of small science

403
00:20:09,622 --> 00:20:11,762
making an important,
in many ways,

404
00:20:11,796 --> 00:20:14,765
fundamental scientific
discovery, and doing it

405
00:20:14,799 --> 00:20:17,388
at a small observatory
rather than a big one

406
00:20:17,423 --> 00:20:18,389
that everyone has heard about,

407
00:20:18,424 --> 00:20:19,701
one of those famous ones

408
00:20:19,735 --> 00:20:22,255
that even non-scientists
know about

409
00:20:22,290 --> 00:20:24,982
Behind the romance of doing
small science, however,

410
00:20:25,016 --> 00:20:28,088
is simply a lot of hard
work and a lot of worry.

411
00:20:29,745 --> 00:20:30,815
- [Jason] Yes.

412
00:20:30,850 --> 00:20:32,472
[Jason and Larry chuckling]

413
00:20:32,507 --> 00:20:34,233
My job is safe for now.

414
00:20:35,786 --> 00:20:38,478
- You don't need big
telescopes necessarily,

415
00:20:38,513 --> 00:20:40,584
but what you need
is perseverance,

416
00:20:42,793 --> 00:20:45,174
and you also need curiosity,

417
00:20:46,555 --> 00:20:51,042
the ability to ask questions
without a preconceived notion

418
00:20:51,836 --> 00:20:52,734
of what you're gonna find.

419
00:20:54,908 --> 00:20:58,015
For good science to
happen, you have to be open

420
00:20:58,049 --> 00:21:03,054
to whatever avenue
the investigation is
going to take you.

421
00:21:04,780 --> 00:21:07,852
[tranquil music]

422
00:21:12,788 --> 00:21:16,689
[tranquil music continues]

423
00:21:21,349 --> 00:21:22,798
[crew chattering faintly]

424
00:21:22,833 --> 00:21:24,213
- [Larry] We are
here in Chaco Canyon

425
00:21:24,248 --> 00:21:26,423
to see something you
can't see anywhere else,

426
00:21:26,457 --> 00:21:29,805
a pictograph made by
people a thousand years ago

427
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,945
of a star that exploded then,

428
00:21:32,774 --> 00:21:35,190
the first known exploding star.

429
00:21:35,224 --> 00:21:38,538
- The flaring star is
actually the representation

430
00:21:38,573 --> 00:21:40,264
of the supernova.

431
00:21:40,299 --> 00:21:44,095
- Yeah, so I think they have
the moon and the exploding star

432
00:21:44,130 --> 00:21:45,890
done the same way as the hand,

433
00:21:45,925 --> 00:21:48,341
is just to say they're all
done by the same person

434
00:21:48,376 --> 00:21:49,377
at the same time.

435
00:21:50,550 --> 00:21:52,449
- [Matt] This also kind
of mimics the looking up

436
00:21:52,483 --> 00:21:54,865
at the night sky or the daytime
sky, too, you're looking up.

437
00:21:54,899 --> 00:21:57,316
- I think that's a
good point, yeah.

438
00:21:58,558 --> 00:22:01,043
The thought that the moon
and the sun and the star

439
00:22:01,078 --> 00:22:04,046
were all visible
at the same time

440
00:22:04,081 --> 00:22:06,808
seems plausible
an interpretation.

441
00:22:06,842 --> 00:22:10,432
I have to think, if you
saw the star explode,

442
00:22:10,467 --> 00:22:14,505
in that case, more impressive
than ours predictions by far,

443
00:22:14,540 --> 00:22:17,197
so bright that you can see
it in the middle of the day,

444
00:22:17,232 --> 00:22:19,441
that's worth noticing,
that's worth handing down,

445
00:22:19,476 --> 00:22:21,305
and I think that's what
these pictographs are about.

446
00:22:21,340 --> 00:22:23,342
It's something
worth handing down.

447
00:22:25,792 --> 00:22:28,174
[birds chirping]

448
00:22:28,208 --> 00:22:30,832
- It's fun to think about,
a thousand years ago is

449
00:22:30,866 --> 00:22:33,041
when this civilization
was thriving,

450
00:22:33,075 --> 00:22:35,595
and that's when they
saw that supernova

451
00:22:35,630 --> 00:22:37,252
that's depicted down below.

452
00:22:38,495 --> 00:22:41,394
1000 years is the same time
it's taken for the light

453
00:22:41,429 --> 00:22:44,397
from the star that Larry's
discovered to reach us.

454
00:22:46,503 --> 00:22:47,780
- We're small people.

455
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:51,542
We can see what's left behind,

456
00:22:51,577 --> 00:22:55,546
but can only guess at the
culture, the politics,

457
00:22:55,581 --> 00:22:58,963
the personal stories of all
the people who were here then.

458
00:23:00,102 --> 00:23:02,588
In astronomy, by
contrast, we see the past.

459
00:23:02,622 --> 00:23:04,175
If we see the star low up,

460
00:23:04,210 --> 00:23:06,799
we're gonna see what
happened a thousand years ago

461
00:23:06,833 --> 00:23:08,870
with our modern cameras.

462
00:23:08,904 --> 00:23:11,838
We're directly
observing the past,

463
00:23:11,873 --> 00:23:13,909
and it goes on, as we
see distant galaxies,

464
00:23:13,944 --> 00:23:16,567
we're seeing not just
1000 years in the past,

465
00:23:16,602 --> 00:23:19,501
but a million years and a
billion years in the past.

466
00:23:19,536 --> 00:23:21,641
Every slice of the
history of the universe

467
00:23:21,676 --> 00:23:23,540
is actually still
observable today

468
00:23:23,574 --> 00:23:26,991
in more detail than you can
get the history of this canyon.

469
00:23:30,788 --> 00:23:33,722
[upbeat music]

470
00:23:35,275 --> 00:23:37,036
The American
astronomical society

471
00:23:37,070 --> 00:23:38,934
is probably the largest meeting

472
00:23:38,969 --> 00:23:41,834
in the world each
year of astronomers.

473
00:23:42,835 --> 00:23:44,768
It's a tremendously
exciting feeling

474
00:23:44,802 --> 00:23:47,529
to consider the
announcement I'm gonna make.

475
00:23:47,564 --> 00:23:50,808
At the same time, it's a
very nerve wracking thing

476
00:23:50,843 --> 00:23:53,604
because there will
be skepticism,

477
00:23:53,639 --> 00:23:56,780
and I need to be as prepared
as I can be for that.

478
00:23:56,814 --> 00:23:59,817
[upbeat music]

479
00:24:01,716 --> 00:24:03,407
If our star does blow up

480
00:24:03,442 --> 00:24:04,995
and you go back and take a
picture of it two years later,

481
00:24:05,029 --> 00:24:06,962
this is what it might look like.

482
00:24:08,101 --> 00:24:10,172
There's nobody making
predictions of stars

483
00:24:10,207 --> 00:24:11,967
that are going to explode.

484
00:24:12,002 --> 00:24:14,073
That kind of prediction
has never been made before.

485
00:24:15,350 --> 00:24:18,111
For a great claim, you
gotta have great evidence,

486
00:24:18,146 --> 00:24:21,460
and you better have done
things really carefully.

487
00:24:22,426 --> 00:24:23,565
Yeah.

488
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,395
[cars whirring]

489
00:24:27,776 --> 00:24:32,781
Last Thursday, though, I came
up with another hypothesis.

490
00:24:33,610 --> 00:24:35,059
There is another possibility,

491
00:24:35,094 --> 00:24:37,821
merging star isn't the
only card on the table.

492
00:24:39,512 --> 00:24:42,826
The idea is really relatively
simple to describe.

493
00:24:44,034 --> 00:24:46,485
Perhaps the timing
is all messed up

494
00:24:46,519 --> 00:24:48,694
because our pair of
stars is, in fact,

495
00:24:48,728 --> 00:24:50,281
orbiting a third star.

496
00:24:51,420 --> 00:24:53,492
- So if you have a star
orbiting another star

497
00:24:53,526 --> 00:24:55,045
with a really big orbit,

498
00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:56,460
and if they slingshot
around each other,

499
00:24:56,495 --> 00:24:59,083
that star is getting
constantly closer to us.

500
00:24:59,118 --> 00:25:01,569
- [Larry] It could be that
this whole last 15 years,

501
00:25:01,603 --> 00:25:04,088
the star has been coming
in faster and faster

502
00:25:04,123 --> 00:25:05,504
as it's coming in towards you,

503
00:25:05,538 --> 00:25:08,092
and it might be 20
years before it comes in

504
00:25:08,127 --> 00:25:09,542
and then goes out again.

505
00:25:11,337 --> 00:25:13,477
- From the very
beginning, I have to say,

506
00:25:13,512 --> 00:25:17,239
Larry did have the
third-body model in mind.

507
00:25:17,274 --> 00:25:19,069
He didn't forget about it.

508
00:25:20,449 --> 00:25:22,486
He actually relied on some
collaborators who checked it

509
00:25:22,521 --> 00:25:25,627
and then assured him, "Oh,
no, it's not a problem."

510
00:25:25,662 --> 00:25:27,733
But Larry is a careful guy,

511
00:25:27,767 --> 00:25:31,184
and just before he went to
the conference in Seattle,

512
00:25:31,219 --> 00:25:33,462
he thought to check those
numbers and he realized,

513
00:25:33,497 --> 00:25:37,536
uh-oh, they didn't check
this one set of parameters

514
00:25:37,570 --> 00:25:41,263
that actually could allow
this to be a third body.

515
00:25:42,851 --> 00:25:44,681
- I don't think I'm disappointed

516
00:25:44,715 --> 00:25:48,305
so much as it was exhausting

517
00:25:48,339 --> 00:25:50,514
that I needed to
think about this.

518
00:25:50,549 --> 00:25:53,068
You don't wanna go
and say something

519
00:25:53,103 --> 00:25:54,449
you're gonna regret later

520
00:25:54,483 --> 00:25:56,555
because there's some
silly alternative

521
00:25:56,589 --> 00:26:00,075
that you should have been aware
of but you weren't aware of.

522
00:26:00,110 --> 00:26:03,216
[cheerful music]

523
00:26:05,322 --> 00:26:08,152
What's striking though is
the two different predictions

524
00:26:08,187 --> 00:26:10,154
agree completely for the past.

525
00:26:10,189 --> 00:26:13,364
Next year, the
third-body model says

526
00:26:13,399 --> 00:26:16,540
it's going to turn around,
start going back the other way.

527
00:26:16,575 --> 00:26:18,611
The merger blow-up
model says no,

528
00:26:18,646 --> 00:26:21,476
it's just gonna keep
going down and down.

529
00:26:21,510 --> 00:26:23,961
So we don't know today
what's gonna happen,

530
00:26:23,996 --> 00:26:25,376
but it means we will know,

531
00:26:25,411 --> 00:26:26,999
we will know very
soon, next summer,

532
00:26:27,033 --> 00:26:28,587
when we have this
chance to observe it,

533
00:26:28,621 --> 00:26:31,279
did it go this way or
did it go that way?

534
00:26:34,385 --> 00:26:36,595
- [Dan] So now instead of
announcing this exciting finding

535
00:26:36,629 --> 00:26:39,459
to the media, Larry's
just gonna give an update

536
00:26:39,494 --> 00:26:42,911
to a bunch of astronomers about
his progress on the project.

537
00:26:44,223 --> 00:26:46,225
- [Larry] Unfortunate,
having asked

538
00:26:46,259 --> 00:26:48,607
to have a press conference and
having gotten them to agree

539
00:26:48,641 --> 00:26:51,161
that this would be exciting,
to have to then go back

540
00:26:51,195 --> 00:26:53,612
and say, "Well, I
think it's premature."

541
00:26:55,614 --> 00:26:58,686
- Science is very
rarely 100% certain.

542
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,240
The initial results
are often tantalizing,

543
00:27:01,274 --> 00:27:03,345
but not conclusive.

544
00:27:04,933 --> 00:27:07,626
- It is really chasing
particular ideas as
far as they'll go

545
00:27:07,660 --> 00:27:11,250
and having faith in
your own intuitions

546
00:27:11,284 --> 00:27:12,734
about what are good questions

547
00:27:12,769 --> 00:27:14,840
and what are not good questions.

548
00:27:14,874 --> 00:27:17,636
[tranquil music]

549
00:27:17,670 --> 00:27:21,847
- People think of science
as this big pile of facts.

550
00:27:21,881 --> 00:27:26,023
They are literally given a
book and say this is science,

551
00:27:26,058 --> 00:27:27,749
but in fact, science
is often grappling

552
00:27:27,784 --> 00:27:30,234
with what we don't
know about the world.

553
00:27:32,133 --> 00:27:34,480
- By definition, you're
pushing the limits,

554
00:27:34,514 --> 00:27:36,655
you're working at the
edge of knowledge,

555
00:27:36,689 --> 00:27:40,382
but it's scary out
there on the edge.

556
00:27:40,417 --> 00:27:44,179
- So in conclusion,
somewhere there is a star

557
00:27:44,214 --> 00:27:47,079
that right now is within
10 years of merger,

558
00:27:47,113 --> 00:27:49,391
and we should find that
before it goes off.

559
00:27:49,426 --> 00:27:51,255
Thanks for your attention.

560
00:27:51,290 --> 00:27:54,293
[audience clapping]

561
00:27:54,327 --> 00:27:58,262
- In practice, science
is an intensely human,

562
00:27:58,297 --> 00:28:02,232
very personal, difficult,
challenging field.

563
00:28:02,266 --> 00:28:05,476
[melancholy music]

564
00:28:09,929 --> 00:28:14,037
[melancholy music continues]

565
00:28:14,071 --> 00:28:15,797
- After Harvard,
Larry was invited

566
00:28:15,832 --> 00:28:17,626
to go to the University of Iowa

567
00:28:17,661 --> 00:28:19,939
and to be a part of the
physics department there,

568
00:28:19,974 --> 00:28:25,427
and I think that he and
Cindy perhaps anticipated

569
00:28:26,083 --> 00:28:27,636
this being the place

570
00:28:27,671 --> 00:28:28,810
where they would live
out their academic lives.

571
00:28:28,845 --> 00:28:30,260
He liked it very much.

572
00:28:30,294 --> 00:28:32,158
They were well planted
in the community,

573
00:28:32,193 --> 00:28:35,127
and then a couple years into it,

574
00:28:35,161 --> 00:28:36,645
life broke into that department

575
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,096
in a way that was
really horrible.

576
00:28:39,131 --> 00:28:42,721
[melancholy music]

577
00:28:42,755 --> 00:28:46,207
- I got a phone call
from a girlfriend

578
00:28:46,241 --> 00:28:48,830
who said, "Is Larry okay?"

579
00:28:48,865 --> 00:28:52,592
And I said, "Well, what do
you mean is Larry okay?"

580
00:28:55,457 --> 00:28:58,737
And she said, "There's been a
shooting in his department."

581
00:29:00,083 --> 00:29:01,601
- There's been a shooting

582
00:29:01,636 --> 00:29:03,327
at the University of
Iowa campus in Iowa City.

583
00:29:03,362 --> 00:29:05,364
- [Reporter] An unidentified
gunman opened fire,

584
00:29:05,398 --> 00:29:07,780
killing at least three people.

585
00:29:07,815 --> 00:29:10,679
- First word is that the
gunman was a graduate student

586
00:29:10,714 --> 00:29:13,096
upset about the
grading of a paper.

587
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,754
- [Reporter] Angered
at being passed over

588
00:29:15,788 --> 00:29:17,583
for an academic award,
he killed a rival student

589
00:29:17,617 --> 00:29:19,412
who was honored and
then shot to death

590
00:29:19,447 --> 00:29:20,724
three of his professors.

591
00:29:20,759 --> 00:29:23,278
The gunman then
took his own life.

592
00:29:25,073 --> 00:29:28,076
[ominous music]

593
00:29:32,529 --> 00:29:35,635
- Gang Lu was an
extremely bright guy.

594
00:29:35,670 --> 00:29:37,672
He was, as far as I
recall, number one

595
00:29:37,706 --> 00:29:39,778
at Beijing University
in physics,

596
00:29:39,812 --> 00:29:44,092
and as far as I know, had never
ever not scored the highest

597
00:29:44,127 --> 00:29:46,612
on any exam he ever took.

598
00:29:46,646 --> 00:29:49,580
[ominous music]

599
00:29:49,615 --> 00:29:53,067
There is a prize given
for the best PhD thesis

600
00:29:53,101 --> 00:29:54,344
at the University of Iowa.

601
00:29:54,378 --> 00:29:56,346
He did not win that prize.

602
00:29:58,244 --> 00:30:01,454
[melancholy music]

603
00:30:06,494 --> 00:30:10,532
[melancholy music continues]

604
00:30:11,740 --> 00:30:14,329
- In the time
following the shooting,

605
00:30:19,472 --> 00:30:21,958
there's a great emptiness left

606
00:30:21,992 --> 00:30:27,377
where the people you've
lost are not there anymore.

607
00:30:28,274 --> 00:30:31,450
[melancholy music]

608
00:30:35,454 --> 00:30:38,043
[melancholy music continues]

609
00:30:38,077 --> 00:30:41,287
- I just remember him being
heartbroken by the whole thing,

610
00:30:41,322 --> 00:30:46,051
and that was just
a devastating thing

611
00:30:46,085 --> 00:30:47,604
for that whole community.

612
00:30:50,089 --> 00:30:53,679
[melancholy music]

613
00:30:53,713 --> 00:30:56,406
- It was a moment that kind
of highlights the differences

614
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:00,410
between what one
person most values

615
00:31:00,444 --> 00:31:02,861
and what another person values.

616
00:31:04,138 --> 00:31:06,105
So it was not to him imaginable

617
00:31:06,140 --> 00:31:08,487
that he could be
second in anything.

618
00:31:09,626 --> 00:31:13,423
That was deep in
his self identity,

619
00:31:15,839 --> 00:31:19,532
and it really brought to the
fore a different perspective

620
00:31:19,567 --> 00:31:22,604
on what my self value was,

621
00:31:23,778 --> 00:31:27,955
that my value has been
given to me in my faith,

622
00:31:27,989 --> 00:31:30,371
so that what's important
is that I'm doing work

623
00:31:30,405 --> 00:31:32,752
that is in itself meaningful,

624
00:31:32,787 --> 00:31:36,549
regardless of an
award or recognition,

625
00:31:36,584 --> 00:31:38,482
and that I do work with people

626
00:31:38,517 --> 00:31:42,486
and I try to make that
interaction itself meaningful.

627
00:31:44,281 --> 00:31:46,835
Doing the astronomy,
loving the astronomy,

628
00:31:46,870 --> 00:31:51,461
but not being defined
by the astronomy.

629
00:31:51,495 --> 00:31:54,740
[melancholy music]

630
00:31:56,121 --> 00:31:58,192
- [Chef] When the turkey comes
out, you wanna let it sit,

631
00:31:58,226 --> 00:31:59,918
absorb back all
that great juice.

632
00:31:59,952 --> 00:32:01,057
The way you do it-

633
00:32:01,091 --> 00:32:03,093
- [Larry] Remember how it works?

634
00:32:03,128 --> 00:32:04,784
- [Guest] Work with it, with it.

635
00:32:04,819 --> 00:32:07,995
- [Guest] It's always
[indistinct] on the table.

636
00:32:08,029 --> 00:32:11,930
- So it's Thanksgiving,
just drove in from New York

637
00:32:13,932 --> 00:32:16,244
to visit my parents
for a day or two.

638
00:32:17,763 --> 00:32:21,940
I'm a writer, fiction, prose.

639
00:32:21,974 --> 00:32:25,426
I'm definitely not interested
in science in the slightest.

640
00:32:25,460 --> 00:32:28,153
My dad has that
sort of cornered.

641
00:32:28,187 --> 00:32:30,189
You know, you come home
and see him reading a book,

642
00:32:30,224 --> 00:32:32,743
it's all equations or something.

643
00:32:32,778 --> 00:32:34,814
It's like totally his passion.

644
00:32:36,264 --> 00:32:38,853
[mixer whirring]

645
00:32:38,887 --> 00:32:41,476
- So it's always been my job
to make the mashed potatoes

646
00:32:41,511 --> 00:32:43,444
because her tradition
isn't to have potatoes,

647
00:32:43,478 --> 00:32:45,101
but rather to have rice.

648
00:32:45,135 --> 00:32:46,481
- [Cindy] One of our vacation.

649
00:32:46,516 --> 00:32:48,276
- Just the right
consistency, in my view.

650
00:32:48,311 --> 00:32:50,934
Not too smooth,
but not too lumpy.

651
00:32:52,108 --> 00:32:55,697
Adds a variation on the
Chinese cuisine here.

652
00:32:57,251 --> 00:33:00,357
[tranquil music]

653
00:33:04,810 --> 00:33:06,605
- It's been accepted
for a long time

654
00:33:06,639 --> 00:33:09,884
that what are sometimes
called non-scientific factors

655
00:33:09,918 --> 00:33:12,473
have an important role on
the way science develops

656
00:33:12,507 --> 00:33:13,957
and changes over time.

657
00:33:16,753 --> 00:33:19,859
The work that any
individual person does

658
00:33:19,894 --> 00:33:23,484
is a confluence of the
institutional social forces,

659
00:33:23,518 --> 00:33:25,762
as well as their own
personal biography

660
00:33:25,796 --> 00:33:28,765
and beliefs, or
maybe even ideology.

661
00:33:28,799 --> 00:33:30,249
- Shall I give thanks now?

662
00:33:30,284 --> 00:33:31,975
- Yes.
- All right.

663
00:33:32,010 --> 00:33:34,046
- Heavenly Father, we
thank you for this day

664
00:33:34,081 --> 00:33:35,392
when we all gather together.

665
00:33:35,427 --> 00:33:37,705
- When I first met Larry,

666
00:33:37,739 --> 00:33:39,879
didn't really know
his background.

667
00:33:39,914 --> 00:33:43,055
I didn't know, for example,
that he was deeply religious.

668
00:33:43,090 --> 00:33:45,126
[tranquil music]

669
00:33:45,161 --> 00:33:48,267
Was it surprising that
he was so religious

670
00:33:48,302 --> 00:33:49,372
and yet such a good scientist?

671
00:33:49,406 --> 00:33:51,098
Yes, at first it was to me.

672
00:33:51,132 --> 00:33:54,618
I think, basically,
one can draw a line

673
00:33:54,653 --> 00:33:56,586
and say there's certain
things that I'll accept

674
00:33:56,620 --> 00:33:59,589
without question, and
everything else I will question,

675
00:33:59,623 --> 00:34:02,212
and obviously, that's
what Larry does.

676
00:34:02,247 --> 00:34:05,905
He's an excellent scientist
so he's able to balance that.

677
00:34:05,940 --> 00:34:08,046
[tranquil music]

678
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,738
- When we do notice
that a scientist has

679
00:34:10,772 --> 00:34:12,774
some interesting
personality feature

680
00:34:12,809 --> 00:34:14,742
or an unusual background,

681
00:34:14,776 --> 00:34:18,539
we say they're doing
science in spite of that,

682
00:34:18,573 --> 00:34:20,299
but really, those are the things

683
00:34:20,334 --> 00:34:22,577
that make the great scientists.

684
00:34:23,854 --> 00:34:25,477
That's what points people
at interesting projects

685
00:34:25,511 --> 00:34:27,410
and gives them the kind
of resources they need

686
00:34:27,444 --> 00:34:28,928
to solve those problems.

687
00:34:30,827 --> 00:34:32,829
- I think Larry is motivated

688
00:34:32,863 --> 00:34:36,695
by a complex sense of
calling to be faithful,

689
00:34:37,834 --> 00:34:41,769
to be faithful to
his God, to his work,

690
00:34:41,803 --> 00:34:44,979
to his family, to his community.

691
00:34:46,394 --> 00:34:48,500
That's at the core of who he is.

692
00:34:51,882 --> 00:34:54,644
- I don't need to do
science to have value.

693
00:34:54,678 --> 00:34:56,301
I can do science
for the joy of it.

694
00:34:56,335 --> 00:34:59,269
I can do science because the
world's just so interesting.

695
00:34:59,304 --> 00:35:02,134
I can do science because
God made an amazing universe

696
00:35:02,169 --> 00:35:07,553
and I'm revealing some of his
glory by seeing what that is.

697
00:35:08,106 --> 00:35:10,246
[tranquil music]

698
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,352
- He is deeply curious,

699
00:35:13,387 --> 00:35:15,768
someone who has that
raw, just hunger

700
00:35:15,803 --> 00:35:17,563
to understand the cosmos,

701
00:35:17,598 --> 00:35:20,842
and I always saw that
with Professor Molnar,

702
00:35:20,877 --> 00:35:24,052
even in the most
stressful situations.

703
00:35:25,468 --> 00:35:28,609
- [Larry] I don't know really
whether it'll blow up or not,

704
00:35:28,643 --> 00:35:30,335
and there's one side of me

705
00:35:30,369 --> 00:35:32,785
that really doesn't
actually care.

706
00:35:33,614 --> 00:35:35,443
What I wanna know is the truth.

707
00:35:35,478 --> 00:35:37,480
What is this star about?

708
00:35:39,689 --> 00:35:42,761
[cheerful music]

709
00:35:43,900 --> 00:35:45,591
So we've been waiting
since last November

710
00:35:45,626 --> 00:35:47,248
to get any new data whatsoever

711
00:35:47,283 --> 00:35:49,733
'cause the star is
too close to the Sun.

712
00:35:50,872 --> 00:35:53,772
When exactly you kick
off the new season

713
00:35:53,806 --> 00:35:57,845
depends on the Moon and the
clouds and your busyness.

714
00:35:59,018 --> 00:36:01,573
Dan van Noord, my first
student on this project,

715
00:36:01,607 --> 00:36:03,299
having just graduated
in December,

716
00:36:03,333 --> 00:36:06,336
is now working full-time
for Optec Incorporated.

717
00:36:06,371 --> 00:36:09,201
And then this summer, I
have a new student, Kara,

718
00:36:09,236 --> 00:36:11,652
actually specifically
transferred to Calvin

719
00:36:11,686 --> 00:36:13,550
so that she could work with me.

720
00:36:14,793 --> 00:36:16,795
- A lot of profs use
research students

721
00:36:16,829 --> 00:36:21,179
as sort of grunt work, and they
send you to do this or that

722
00:36:21,213 --> 00:36:24,561
or fill in numbers without
really explaining to you

723
00:36:24,596 --> 00:36:26,080
what you're doing.

724
00:36:26,114 --> 00:36:27,840
Whereas I found Professor
Molnar is very big

725
00:36:27,875 --> 00:36:30,878
on explaining the theory
of what's going on

726
00:36:30,912 --> 00:36:34,640
and why it matters, which is
really unique and special.

727
00:36:34,675 --> 00:36:37,747
[cheerful music]

728
00:36:37,781 --> 00:36:39,197
- So what we're
looking at right now

729
00:36:39,231 --> 00:36:42,752
is my extracting from
images of the night sky,

730
00:36:42,786 --> 00:36:45,133
a real record of
brightness versus time.

731
00:36:46,376 --> 00:36:49,068
I can click and see what
the image looks like there.

732
00:36:49,103 --> 00:36:51,070
That's what beautiful
data look like.

733
00:36:51,105 --> 00:36:54,729
Nice small stars, black
sky, easy to measure.

734
00:36:54,764 --> 00:36:56,144
Or I can click on one
of these noisy things

735
00:36:56,179 --> 00:36:59,147
and I see that's a
cloud wandering by,

736
00:36:59,182 --> 00:37:01,115
and so I'm gonna have
to edit out the clouds

737
00:37:01,149 --> 00:37:03,807
that came by and make
use of what remains.

738
00:37:04,946 --> 00:37:06,534
I am excited to finally see

739
00:37:06,569 --> 00:37:09,744
what is happening
now since November.

740
00:37:09,779 --> 00:37:11,988
So while I've been
calibrating these data

741
00:37:12,022 --> 00:37:14,266
from our small
telescope, looking to see

742
00:37:14,301 --> 00:37:17,856
what the timing has done,
we also got approval

743
00:37:17,890 --> 00:37:19,513
of observing time in June,

744
00:37:19,547 --> 00:37:20,997
which is the height
of the season,

745
00:37:21,031 --> 00:37:24,138
to get the spectroscopy
we need to really test,

746
00:37:24,172 --> 00:37:26,727
one way or another,
for the third body.

747
00:37:26,761 --> 00:37:29,281
[cheerful music]

748
00:37:29,316 --> 00:37:31,835
- Apache Point Observatory
is at the elevation

749
00:37:31,870 --> 00:37:35,943
of 2,700 meters, so it's
almost about 9,000 feet.

750
00:37:35,977 --> 00:37:38,497
We're in the American Southwest,
which is classically known

751
00:37:38,532 --> 00:37:40,258
as a very good, dark site.

752
00:37:40,292 --> 00:37:44,641
The skies are clear for almost
300 nights out of the year.

753
00:37:44,676 --> 00:37:47,851
[uplifting music]

754
00:37:50,889 --> 00:37:52,994
- You always know that if
you get two good nights

755
00:37:53,029 --> 00:37:55,859
on a big telescope, it could
be cloudy those nights,

756
00:37:55,894 --> 00:37:57,620
you could lose it
all for that season

757
00:37:57,654 --> 00:37:59,000
and have to wait another year,

758
00:37:59,035 --> 00:38:00,899
so that's where
we hedge our bets.

759
00:38:00,933 --> 00:38:03,315
We're gonna schedule similar
things at the spectroscope

760
00:38:03,350 --> 00:38:04,661
in Wyoming as well.

761
00:38:05,352 --> 00:38:08,320
[uplifting music]

762
00:38:09,908 --> 00:38:12,255
- [Kara] So it's kind
of exciting to be
sent on my own here,

763
00:38:12,290 --> 00:38:14,119
a little nerve wracking.

764
00:38:14,153 --> 00:38:15,362
[car whirring]

765
00:38:15,396 --> 00:38:17,225
- We bring in five
or six undergraduates

766
00:38:17,260 --> 00:38:19,262
from all over the
country every summer,

767
00:38:19,297 --> 00:38:22,369
and we're delighted to have
Kara from Calvin College

768
00:38:22,403 --> 00:38:25,130
as part of this collection
of summer students.

769
00:38:25,164 --> 00:38:27,097
It's one of life's
pleasant ironies

770
00:38:27,132 --> 00:38:31,032
that we're able to host a
student of my former advisor.

771
00:38:31,067 --> 00:38:32,931
A large part of where
I am in my career

772
00:38:32,965 --> 00:38:35,278
is thanks to the experience
I was able to have

773
00:38:35,313 --> 00:38:38,419
with Dr. Molnar, and
have him teach me

774
00:38:38,454 --> 00:38:39,834
how to be an astronomer.

775
00:38:39,869 --> 00:38:42,250
That's what we want
to do for Kara now.

776
00:38:42,285 --> 00:38:45,530
[telescope whirring]

777
00:38:45,564 --> 00:38:48,947
- [Larry] We need to understand
more details about our star.

778
00:38:48,981 --> 00:38:51,259
We need to understand
are there two stars

779
00:38:51,294 --> 00:38:52,744
or are there three?

780
00:38:52,778 --> 00:38:54,677
We need to know how the
two stars are moving.

781
00:38:54,711 --> 00:38:57,162
For that, you need spectroscopy.

782
00:38:57,196 --> 00:38:59,337
- I've always found
spectroscopic observation

783
00:38:59,371 --> 00:39:01,442
to be really interesting
and exciting.

784
00:39:01,477 --> 00:39:04,825
All these tiny variations
in the length of the waves

785
00:39:04,859 --> 00:39:07,828
can tell us so much about
these huge balls of gas

786
00:39:07,862 --> 00:39:09,692
millions of light years away.

787
00:39:09,726 --> 00:39:11,556
[tranquil music]

788
00:39:11,590 --> 00:39:13,040
- [Larry] So the
question now will be

789
00:39:13,074 --> 00:39:15,836
how do we process these data?

790
00:39:17,216 --> 00:39:20,116
While both Karen and
Jason, my colleagues,

791
00:39:20,150 --> 00:39:23,188
have worked with spectroscopic
data in the past,

792
00:39:23,222 --> 00:39:24,741
neither of them
have actually dealt

793
00:39:24,776 --> 00:39:26,950
with exactly this question.

794
00:39:28,227 --> 00:39:30,920
- [Matt] 90% of science is
figuring out what to do,

795
00:39:30,954 --> 00:39:33,785
and the other 10% is
actually doing it.

796
00:39:33,819 --> 00:39:36,960
[tranquil music]

797
00:39:38,376 --> 00:39:41,033
- [Kara] If the data is good
and we're good at analyzing it,

798
00:39:41,068 --> 00:39:44,968
hopefully we'll know if there
is or isn't a third body.

799
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:47,833
- [Larry] If it's there,
there's some reasonable chance

800
00:39:47,868 --> 00:39:49,283
we could already see it.

801
00:39:50,388 --> 00:39:51,768
If it's not there,

802
00:39:51,803 --> 00:39:53,805
I don't think we can
100% rule it out.

803
00:39:54,978 --> 00:39:56,324
- [Kara] We maybe saw a
blip that could be that,

804
00:39:56,359 --> 00:39:58,913
but it's so small
it could be noise.

805
00:40:00,121 --> 00:40:01,882
- I'm only asking
is there a big star

806
00:40:01,916 --> 00:40:04,816
that's pushing it
around and confusing me

807
00:40:04,850 --> 00:40:07,577
and making me say
crazy things, right?

808
00:40:07,612 --> 00:40:10,304
Or is there not a big star?

809
00:40:10,338 --> 00:40:13,065
[gentle music]

810
00:40:17,104 --> 00:40:20,901
[gentle music continues]

811
00:40:21,902 --> 00:40:23,282
- I guess you never
know in science

812
00:40:23,317 --> 00:40:25,630
if you'll get the
answer you're expecting

813
00:40:25,664 --> 00:40:27,701
or something wholly unexpected,

814
00:40:27,735 --> 00:40:29,150
and that's the fun
part of science,

815
00:40:29,185 --> 00:40:31,118
and the fun part
of the universe is

816
00:40:31,152 --> 00:40:33,845
that there's just a
lot we don't know yet.

817
00:40:33,879 --> 00:40:36,882
[gentle music]

818
00:40:39,333 --> 00:40:42,198
At this point, everything
hinges on that third body.

819
00:40:42,232 --> 00:40:45,201
If we find it, then
that's the explanation

820
00:40:45,235 --> 00:40:47,479
for what Larry's seeing,
and his expectation

821
00:40:47,514 --> 00:40:50,482
of an exploding star
isn't gonna happen.

822
00:40:50,517 --> 00:40:52,415
[gentle music]

823
00:40:52,450 --> 00:40:54,106
Just like great
astronomers in the past,

824
00:40:54,141 --> 00:40:56,143
we're trying to figure
out which model gives us

825
00:40:56,177 --> 00:40:58,663
the best explanation
for what we're seeing.

826
00:40:58,697 --> 00:41:02,011
[suspenseful music]

827
00:41:04,151 --> 00:41:05,670
- [Dave] By the end
of the 16th century,

828
00:41:05,704 --> 00:41:08,569
when you have people like
Brahe noticing things

829
00:41:08,604 --> 00:41:10,502
that were wrong in the sky,

830
00:41:10,537 --> 00:41:13,919
this sort of starts
a chain reaction.

831
00:41:13,954 --> 00:41:15,438
His student, Kepler,

832
00:41:15,473 --> 00:41:18,234
notices that some other
things don't match.

833
00:41:19,580 --> 00:41:22,997
And then there's this young
Italian, Galileo Galilei,

834
00:41:23,032 --> 00:41:24,930
who doesn't invent
the telescope,

835
00:41:24,965 --> 00:41:27,795
but gets really good at
pointing it at the sky.

836
00:41:28,934 --> 00:41:30,936
So we've got moons
going around Jupiter,

837
00:41:30,971 --> 00:41:32,938
and we've got spots on the Sun,

838
00:41:32,973 --> 00:41:34,975
and we've got
craters on the Moon.

839
00:41:36,424 --> 00:41:39,186
- People who studied
these things realized

840
00:41:39,220 --> 00:41:42,016
that if you wanted to
get a coherent structure,

841
00:41:42,051 --> 00:41:46,193
you've got to move to
a new kind of world.

842
00:41:47,574 --> 00:41:50,335
- What was so revolutionary
about what they were doing

843
00:41:50,369 --> 00:41:53,234
was that they were making
the heavens knowable

844
00:41:53,269 --> 00:41:55,305
in the same way that
the Earth was knowable.

845
00:41:55,340 --> 00:41:58,377
So it was science
of a new caliber,

846
00:41:59,724 --> 00:42:02,278
it was a science that said
our intellectual abilities

847
00:42:02,312 --> 00:42:07,214
as humans can be applied to
things beyond our control,

848
00:42:07,248 --> 00:42:09,043
like the heavenly bodies.

849
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:11,977
And instead of being other,

850
00:42:12,012 --> 00:42:14,497
they became a part of
the story of who we are.

851
00:42:14,532 --> 00:42:17,465
[tranquil music]

852
00:42:21,021 --> 00:42:25,163
- What happens following
Tycho Brahe and Galileo

853
00:42:25,197 --> 00:42:28,097
is, eventually, Isaac Newton.

854
00:42:29,685 --> 00:42:33,240
- It is Newton's view of God
as infinite and invisible

855
00:42:33,274 --> 00:42:35,553
that influences his
understanding of the cosmos

856
00:42:35,587 --> 00:42:38,210
and of space and
time and gravitation,

857
00:42:38,245 --> 00:42:41,282
and influences his perspective
that this is a domain

858
00:42:41,317 --> 00:42:45,390
that we as intellectual
creatures made in
the image of God

859
00:42:45,424 --> 00:42:47,910
that's open to us
for investigation.

860
00:42:49,187 --> 00:42:50,706
- And that's part of the
excitement of science,

861
00:42:50,740 --> 00:42:52,639
when you put together your
data for the first time

862
00:42:52,673 --> 00:42:55,538
in a way that you can start
to analyze something physical

863
00:42:55,573 --> 00:42:58,023
about what's going
on in the universe,

864
00:42:59,024 --> 00:43:00,301
that's the preliminary look.

865
00:43:00,336 --> 00:43:02,165
We see two distinct bumps.

866
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,305
Sometimes they blend
together, but like right now,

867
00:43:04,340 --> 00:43:05,893
there's a bump on
the right side,

868
00:43:05,928 --> 00:43:08,171
and as this little
bump switches sides,

869
00:43:08,206 --> 00:43:10,691
that's telling us that
there's a less massive star

870
00:43:10,726 --> 00:43:12,969
orbiting a more massive star.

871
00:43:14,246 --> 00:43:17,215
If there were a third
star, my initial guess is

872
00:43:17,249 --> 00:43:19,942
it has to be pretty
faint if it's there.

873
00:43:21,426 --> 00:43:24,084
- I think it's been a
very productive evening,

874
00:43:24,118 --> 00:43:26,362
even though we're very tired.

875
00:43:26,396 --> 00:43:29,779
Her early numbers really
match my expectations

876
00:43:29,814 --> 00:43:32,126
for a merging binary star

877
00:43:32,161 --> 00:43:34,750
that's all by itself
without a third body,

878
00:43:34,784 --> 00:43:38,374
and we didn't really have
that information till tonight,

879
00:43:38,408 --> 00:43:41,619
so I'm very excited that that
seems to be what we're seeing.

880
00:43:44,345 --> 00:43:47,107
- So if we flip to the back,

881
00:43:48,522 --> 00:43:53,078
we can see our actual data
from Apache Point on the left

882
00:43:54,079 --> 00:43:55,563
and WIRO in Wyoming
on the right,

883
00:43:56,357 --> 00:43:58,118
and so what we're looking for-

884
00:43:58,152 --> 00:44:00,603
- So it's really been quite
a rapid learning curve,

885
00:44:00,638 --> 00:44:03,537
to say that in four weeks
we really understand

886
00:44:03,571 --> 00:44:07,023
what we're looking at and
can draw a conclusion,

887
00:44:07,058 --> 00:44:10,268
where four weeks ago it was
exciting to have brand new data

888
00:44:10,302 --> 00:44:13,374
in our hands, it's all
the more satisfying now

889
00:44:13,409 --> 00:44:15,687
to say we know what
the data are saying.

890
00:44:15,722 --> 00:44:17,068
- To the second background here.

891
00:44:17,102 --> 00:44:18,517
As we look at this chart,

892
00:44:18,552 --> 00:44:20,899
the first thing we have
here is the period,

893
00:44:20,934 --> 00:44:22,625
which is getting
faster and faster,

894
00:44:22,660 --> 00:44:25,041
so it's an important
factor as we look at

895
00:44:25,076 --> 00:44:26,491
how soon it's gonna merge,

896
00:44:26,525 --> 00:44:28,700
with our predictions
of three to five years.

897
00:44:28,735 --> 00:44:30,288
The key as far as figuring out

898
00:44:30,322 --> 00:44:31,772
whether or not there
is a third body

899
00:44:31,807 --> 00:44:34,982
is whether or not we
see that spike in green

900
00:44:35,017 --> 00:44:36,501
in any of our spectra.

901
00:44:37,605 --> 00:44:39,090
- And so if there were
a third star there,

902
00:44:39,124 --> 00:44:41,126
we would see it
in this spectrum,

903
00:44:41,161 --> 00:44:42,438
but there's nothing left here

904
00:44:42,472 --> 00:44:44,682
that looks like
that, however small,

905
00:44:44,716 --> 00:44:47,339
where a month ago,
the third-body model

906
00:44:47,374 --> 00:44:49,514
was really the more likely model

907
00:44:49,548 --> 00:44:52,068
for any reasonable
interpretation.

908
00:44:52,103 --> 00:44:53,725
We can now rule it out.

909
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,003
We've tested the model and
therefore it's not there,

910
00:44:56,038 --> 00:44:58,143
and the unlikely
model is what remains.

911
00:44:58,178 --> 00:45:00,214
- Scientists are
supposed to be impartial

912
00:45:00,249 --> 00:45:03,045
and not want it to turn
out one way or another way

913
00:45:03,079 --> 00:45:06,048
because then you're biased,
but inside, we're like, "Yeah,

914
00:45:06,082 --> 00:45:07,221
we know what we're doing.

915
00:45:07,256 --> 00:45:08,326
It's this way.

916
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,121
I was hoping for this."

917
00:45:12,882 --> 00:45:14,642
[crowd chattering indistinctly]

918
00:45:14,677 --> 00:45:16,783
[bells ringing]

919
00:45:16,817 --> 00:45:19,509
- [Announcer] Thank you
for celebrating Picnic Pops

920
00:45:19,544 --> 00:45:22,754
with the Grand Rapids Symphony.

921
00:45:22,789 --> 00:45:25,584
[upbeat music]

922
00:45:29,174 --> 00:45:31,038
- [Larry] So if you
get tickets in here,

923
00:45:31,073 --> 00:45:33,489
I'll just wait right here.

924
00:45:33,523 --> 00:45:36,388
[cheerful music]

925
00:45:37,665 --> 00:45:41,186
- Definitely Larry thought
about music as a career,

926
00:45:41,221 --> 00:45:44,465
but he, I think, had an
interest in astronomy

927
00:45:44,500 --> 00:45:47,158
for a bit longer than
his interest in music,

928
00:45:47,192 --> 00:45:49,160
and so astronomy won out.

929
00:45:49,194 --> 00:45:52,232
[cheerful music]

930
00:45:52,266 --> 00:45:55,097
- Music speaks to
something deep in the soul.

931
00:45:55,131 --> 00:45:57,927
[cheerful music]

932
00:45:57,962 --> 00:46:01,068
It's one thing I
like, especially about
the fireworks pops,

933
00:46:01,103 --> 00:46:04,554
is that it starts an hour
later than the other ones,

934
00:46:04,589 --> 00:46:06,142
and so that in the second half,

935
00:46:06,177 --> 00:46:08,386
you begin to see
the stars come out.

936
00:46:10,595 --> 00:46:13,460
[dramatic music]

937
00:46:16,739 --> 00:46:19,880
[fireworks exploding]

938
00:46:19,915 --> 00:46:22,780
[dramatic music]

939
00:46:25,990 --> 00:46:28,716
[gentle music]

940
00:46:33,998 --> 00:46:36,794
[gentle music]

941
00:46:39,589 --> 00:46:43,697
There's a hundred billion
stars in our galaxy.

942
00:46:44,802 --> 00:46:47,011
Millions upon millions
of stars out there

943
00:46:47,045 --> 00:46:49,013
that, in the next five years,

944
00:46:49,047 --> 00:46:51,291
are gonna do nothing whatsoever.

945
00:46:53,362 --> 00:46:56,814
We really shouldn't, by
coincidence, have found

946
00:46:56,848 --> 00:46:59,402
the next star that
is going to blow up.

947
00:47:02,129 --> 00:47:05,892
We still don't know if we're
right, but at some point,

948
00:47:05,926 --> 00:47:09,136
you've gotta go out on a limb
here, make our prediction

949
00:47:09,171 --> 00:47:13,554
so the larger community can
know that we could see a nova

950
00:47:13,589 --> 00:47:17,835
from the get go for the
first time ever in history.

951
00:47:19,940 --> 00:47:22,805
[tranquil music]

952
00:47:26,188 --> 00:47:28,293
[Jason and Larry
speaking faintly]

953
00:47:28,328 --> 00:47:31,365
- Nothing out of the
ordinary that I saw.

954
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:33,574
So now we have our results.

955
00:47:33,609 --> 00:47:35,714
We're full steam ahead
with our prediction,

956
00:47:35,749 --> 00:47:37,440
but before we can
let the world know,

957
00:47:37,475 --> 00:47:39,235
Larry needs to write it up

958
00:47:39,270 --> 00:47:41,617
and present it to the
astronomical community,

959
00:47:41,651 --> 00:47:43,791
so that's what we're
waiting on right now.

960
00:47:43,826 --> 00:47:45,586
- And right now, we're
just holding back,

961
00:47:45,621 --> 00:47:48,727
kind of waiting until
Larry gets that paper out.

962
00:47:50,384 --> 00:47:52,145
- It's now August 10th.

963
00:47:52,179 --> 00:47:54,216
I wanna be done
by September 8th,

964
00:47:55,286 --> 00:47:56,839
and we have to subtract one week

965
00:47:56,874 --> 00:48:01,223
'cause I'm going to visit
my mother on Wednesday,

966
00:48:02,569 --> 00:48:04,743
which, you gotta do
what you gotta do.

967
00:48:06,366 --> 00:48:08,540
- [Matt] Larry is
extremely meticulous.

968
00:48:08,575 --> 00:48:11,889
He takes his time to
be extremely careful.

969
00:48:14,581 --> 00:48:16,583
- [Jason] I think he's
feeling, in a real way,

970
00:48:16,617 --> 00:48:18,999
the tensions that
scientists can feel in terms

971
00:48:19,034 --> 00:48:22,209
of their different commitments
and responsibilities.

972
00:48:23,624 --> 00:48:26,282
He has a responsibility as a
scientist to get things right,

973
00:48:26,317 --> 00:48:27,697
but he also has a responsibility

974
00:48:27,732 --> 00:48:29,492
to share with a
broader community,

975
00:48:29,527 --> 00:48:31,632
so he is feeling that pull.

976
00:48:33,117 --> 00:48:35,257
[cheerful music]

977
00:48:35,291 --> 00:48:36,465
- Yeah, hey guys,
out of the way.

978
00:48:36,499 --> 00:48:38,605
All right, this is going in, so.

979
00:48:38,639 --> 00:48:42,885
- Just as we reached the end
of our summer research period,

980
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:44,335
Kara shared with me

981
00:48:44,369 --> 00:48:47,579
that she's not going
to come back this fall,

982
00:48:48,718 --> 00:48:50,789
that, apparently, with
the changing value

983
00:48:50,824 --> 00:48:53,516
of the Canadian dollar
in the past year,

984
00:48:53,551 --> 00:48:57,589
it's not clear to her she
can afford to stay here.

985
00:48:59,971 --> 00:49:03,009
That's certainly a
blow to our project.

986
00:49:04,493 --> 00:49:06,012
Having had her here for a year,

987
00:49:06,046 --> 00:49:10,154
she's learned a whole
lot about binary stars.

988
00:49:10,188 --> 00:49:13,709
The real joy as a professor
of working with students

989
00:49:13,743 --> 00:49:17,402
is to see them grow
and to share with them

990
00:49:17,437 --> 00:49:20,164
the scientific project
at a deeper level.

991
00:49:20,198 --> 00:49:22,925
In this case, I'm gonna have
to start from scratch again

992
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,928
with a student that is just
learning what's going on.

993
00:49:28,793 --> 00:49:31,071
- [Dan] Not having her on the
team is gonna slow him down,

994
00:49:31,106 --> 00:49:33,694
and he already needs as
much help as he can get

995
00:49:33,729 --> 00:49:37,560
to make progress at a rapid
rate, so we're gonna miss her.

996
00:49:40,494 --> 00:49:42,980
[cheerful music]

997
00:49:43,014 --> 00:49:46,742
- Well, I made huge
progress this summer,

998
00:49:47,915 --> 00:49:50,884
and then I ground to a
halt for four months.

999
00:49:51,989 --> 00:49:54,025
- [Dan] That paper
still isn't out.

1000
00:49:55,268 --> 00:49:58,133
- I've had to recalculate
a few things as well

1001
00:49:58,167 --> 00:50:02,378
just to make sure it's really
fully and properly done.

1002
00:50:02,413 --> 00:50:05,209
The good news this
month, January, 2016,

1003
00:50:05,243 --> 00:50:10,283
I have released time from the
college to finish my paper.

1004
00:50:10,317 --> 00:50:12,837
[cheerful music]

1005
00:50:12,871 --> 00:50:15,702
It's an incredibly
busy semester,

1006
00:50:15,736 --> 00:50:20,603
so intense that I haven't
made any progress on my paper.

1007
00:50:21,673 --> 00:50:22,778
- He's on Larry time.

1008
00:50:22,812 --> 00:50:24,400
Larry's always on Larry time.

1009
00:50:24,435 --> 00:50:25,712
You just don't put
a timeline on it.

1010
00:50:25,746 --> 00:50:26,989
You just say, "It's
just Larry time,

1011
00:50:27,024 --> 00:50:28,577
and he'll be done
when he's done."

1012
00:50:28,611 --> 00:50:30,510
[Larry speaking faintly]

1013
00:50:30,544 --> 00:50:32,029
- He's under a lot of pressure.

1014
00:50:32,063 --> 00:50:34,169
He's got a lot of
teaching responsibilities,

1015
00:50:34,203 --> 00:50:36,999
he's a perfectionist
when it comes to writing,

1016
00:50:37,034 --> 00:50:40,140
so I understand it, but
still, the clock is ticking

1017
00:50:40,175 --> 00:50:43,488
and we really would like
to get this out there.

1018
00:50:45,076 --> 00:50:47,078
- It's a joke in the
physics department

1019
00:50:47,113 --> 00:50:49,632
that it's taking him
forever to write this paper.

1020
00:50:49,667 --> 00:50:51,358
It's kind of like he's
the captain of a ship

1021
00:50:51,393 --> 00:50:54,568
having us do all these random
jobs just to keep us busy

1022
00:50:54,603 --> 00:50:56,467
until he's ready for it.

1023
00:50:56,501 --> 00:50:59,504
[playful music]

1024
00:51:00,333 --> 00:51:02,335
- Well, it's now August 11th.

1025
00:51:02,369 --> 00:51:07,823
I've spent my entire summer
trying to finish the draft

1026
00:51:08,341 --> 00:51:09,859
of my paper.

1027
00:51:10,550 --> 00:51:13,035
So scientific advice

1028
00:51:13,070 --> 00:51:16,073
from my Chinese fortune
cookie manufacturer,

1029
00:51:16,107 --> 00:51:19,697
"Time is precious, but truth
is more precious than time."

1030
00:51:20,870 --> 00:51:23,149
I've been a little slow
getting my paper done,

1031
00:51:23,183 --> 00:51:25,116
so this is my comment
to my department chair

1032
00:51:25,151 --> 00:51:26,428
to just be patient.

1033
00:51:26,462 --> 00:51:28,464
We'll get this at
the right time.

1034
00:51:29,500 --> 00:51:31,674
- [Dan] It's the
engineering, too, right?

1035
00:51:31,709 --> 00:51:33,331
- This is what we're
looking at here.

1036
00:51:33,366 --> 00:51:34,919
This thing's going in today.

1037
00:51:34,953 --> 00:51:37,508
- It is amazing how
many details there are,

1038
00:51:37,542 --> 00:51:41,167
to dot all the Is,
cross all the Ts.

1039
00:51:41,201 --> 00:51:43,652
So it says here, "Email
the editorial office

1040
00:51:43,686 --> 00:51:45,171
if you have a
problem with this."

1041
00:51:45,205 --> 00:51:48,726
So in fact, I just
emailed them a moment ago,

1042
00:51:49,727 --> 00:51:54,283
and here is my
email back, 11:31,

1043
00:51:54,318 --> 00:51:57,735
from the office manager saying,

1044
00:51:57,769 --> 00:51:59,530
"I have finished the
process for you."

1045
00:51:59,564 --> 00:52:01,221
She hit the submit button,

1046
00:52:01,256 --> 00:52:03,982
[all laughing]

1047
00:52:06,744 --> 00:52:08,504
She stole our thunder.

1048
00:52:09,885 --> 00:52:12,439
Here is my acknowledgement.

1049
00:52:12,474 --> 00:52:13,509
It has been received.

1050
00:52:13,544 --> 00:52:15,028
I have a name-

1051
00:52:15,062 --> 00:52:16,202
- By the way, the star
has already exploded.

1052
00:52:16,236 --> 00:52:17,479
- [Dan] Yeah, exactly.

1053
00:52:17,513 --> 00:52:20,447
[upbeat music]

1054
00:52:22,449 --> 00:52:24,727
- Welcome to our
Friday morning briefing

1055
00:52:24,762 --> 00:52:26,798
here at the 229th meeting

1056
00:52:26,833 --> 00:52:28,800
of the American
Astronomical Society.

1057
00:52:28,835 --> 00:52:31,631
So in case this is your first
press conference at the AAS,

1058
00:52:31,665 --> 00:52:34,012
I'm gonna introduce the
topic and the speakers,

1059
00:52:34,047 --> 00:52:37,119
and then we'll start on
the left, go to the right.

1060
00:52:37,154 --> 00:52:40,916
- In my presentation today,
I have two of the elements

1061
00:52:40,950 --> 00:52:43,090
that, to me, make
science exciting,

1062
00:52:43,125 --> 00:52:46,197
a very specific prediction
that can be tested

1063
00:52:46,232 --> 00:52:47,957
and a big explosion.

1064
00:52:47,992 --> 00:52:52,030
- In 2022, we might be able to
witness an explosive creation

1065
00:52:52,065 --> 00:52:53,549
of a new star.

1066
00:52:53,584 --> 00:52:55,137
- [Interviewer]
Professor Larry Molnar,

1067
00:52:55,172 --> 00:52:57,277
as he tells this his
story, professor?

1068
00:52:57,312 --> 00:52:59,383
- [Reporter] That prediction
has launched Larry

1069
00:52:59,417 --> 00:53:02,765
into the International
spotlight of science news.

1070
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,112
[reporter speaking French]

1071
00:53:05,147 --> 00:53:07,460
[reporter speaking
foreign language]

1072
00:53:07,494 --> 00:53:09,910
- [Rick] The "National
Geographic," "Washington Post,"

1073
00:53:09,945 --> 00:53:12,637
the "Telegraph," "Russia Today."

1074
00:53:12,672 --> 00:53:14,674
- La boom star.

1075
00:53:14,708 --> 00:53:16,814
A German outlet quoting
a French outlet,

1076
00:53:16,848 --> 00:53:18,781
quoting this English term.

1077
00:53:20,127 --> 00:53:22,889
[upbeat music]

1078
00:53:28,066 --> 00:53:29,896
- I have to say, I'm
not surprised at all.

1079
00:53:29,930 --> 00:53:32,761
I saw this coming years
ago at that seminar

1080
00:53:32,795 --> 00:53:34,038
when you first announced it.

1081
00:53:34,072 --> 00:53:36,489
I said, "This is
going to be huge.

1082
00:53:36,523 --> 00:53:38,215
This will be world news."

1083
00:53:38,249 --> 00:53:41,079
- So yesterday evening, I
walked my dog around the block

1084
00:53:41,114 --> 00:53:44,635
as I do twice a
day all the time,

1085
00:53:44,669 --> 00:53:47,741
and three quarters
way around the block,

1086
00:53:47,776 --> 00:53:50,606
a man came out
down his driveway,

1087
00:53:50,641 --> 00:53:54,817
who I've never spoken to before,
and said, "Are you Larry?"

1088
00:53:56,612 --> 00:53:57,889
- Word gets around.

1089
00:53:57,924 --> 00:54:00,098
- Told me, "Really
cool coverage,"

1090
00:54:00,133 --> 00:54:03,378
so I am literally being
stopped on the street there.

1091
00:54:03,412 --> 00:54:06,139
[car whirring]

1092
00:54:08,728 --> 00:54:12,076
[footsteps thudding]

1093
00:54:14,043 --> 00:54:15,252
Good morning.

1094
00:54:15,286 --> 00:54:16,598
- [Representative] Good
morning, come on in.

1095
00:54:16,632 --> 00:54:17,737
Are you here for an interview?

1096
00:54:17,771 --> 00:54:19,014
- [Larry] Yes, I'm Larry Molnar.

1097
00:54:19,048 --> 00:54:20,774
- [Representative]
Okay, follow me.

1098
00:54:20,809 --> 00:54:21,844
- [Staff Member] And
after that, [indistinct].

1099
00:54:22,983 --> 00:54:24,675
- [Interviewee] I wanna thank

1100
00:54:24,709 --> 00:54:26,366
a lot of the news organizations.

1101
00:54:26,401 --> 00:54:28,920
- Oh, I think I get nervous
to begin with, yes. [laughs]

1102
00:54:28,955 --> 00:54:30,405
- [Interviewee] They
looked at that nonsense

1103
00:54:30,439 --> 00:54:33,131
that was released

1104
00:54:33,166 --> 00:54:38,585
by maybe the intelligence
agencies, who knows?

1105
00:54:39,621 --> 00:54:40,691
But maybe the
intelligence agencies,

1106
00:54:40,725 --> 00:54:42,175
which would be a tremendous.

1107
00:54:44,142 --> 00:54:46,835
- Just a little focus
on something else here.

1108
00:54:52,047 --> 00:54:52,979
Hello?

1109
00:54:54,221 --> 00:54:55,326
Yes, this is Larry.

1110
00:54:56,465 --> 00:54:57,673
- [Interviewer] Now,
you've been quite vague

1111
00:54:57,708 --> 00:54:59,261
about when this happens.

1112
00:54:59,296 --> 00:55:01,815
How much more information
do you think you can get

1113
00:55:01,850 --> 00:55:03,300
as we get closer to this?

1114
00:55:03,334 --> 00:55:04,818
- Now, if you look
through the records,

1115
00:55:04,853 --> 00:55:06,855
there's been
predictions in the media

1116
00:55:06,889 --> 00:55:08,857
of binary stars merging

1117
00:55:08,891 --> 00:55:09,961
in the next a 100,000 years,

1118
00:55:09,996 --> 00:55:11,860
or in the next million years.

1119
00:55:11,894 --> 00:55:13,448
I would call those vague.

1120
00:55:13,482 --> 00:55:16,002
I'm saying in the next five
years, give or take one.

1121
00:55:16,036 --> 00:55:19,971
So it's really a little
unnerving to be that specific.

1122
00:55:21,594 --> 00:55:22,871
- Larry's been
getting some pushback

1123
00:55:22,905 --> 00:55:24,424
from the astronomical community

1124
00:55:24,459 --> 00:55:29,049
about whether his hypothesis
is plausible at all.

1125
00:55:29,084 --> 00:55:33,364
One guy who really doubts
it is this guy Tylenda

1126
00:55:33,399 --> 00:55:35,055
who's done work in this area.

1127
00:55:36,816 --> 00:55:41,372
[reporter speaking
foreign language]

1128
00:55:44,962 --> 00:55:49,725
[reporter speaking
foreign language]

1129
00:55:51,969 --> 00:55:55,213
- The main reason for
which I am rather skeptical

1130
00:55:55,248 --> 00:55:58,838
of their conclusion that
this system is going to merge

1131
00:55:58,872 --> 00:56:01,634
in a few years is
that it was found

1132
00:56:01,668 --> 00:56:05,051
in a very small sample of stars.

1133
00:56:05,085 --> 00:56:07,916
There is a Polish proverb,

1134
00:56:07,950 --> 00:56:11,989
searching for a
needle in a hay stack.

1135
00:56:14,957 --> 00:56:17,719
- To understand why Tylenda's
opinion matters so much,

1136
00:56:17,753 --> 00:56:20,135
you have to go back
to Larry's work

1137
00:56:20,169 --> 00:56:21,964
with what he calls
his Rosetta Stone,

1138
00:56:21,999 --> 00:56:24,795
the star V1309 Sco.

1139
00:56:26,072 --> 00:56:31,077
- V1309 Sco was a star
that exploded back in 2008.

1140
00:56:32,458 --> 00:56:33,976
Nobody saw it happen, but
Tylenda was able to go back

1141
00:56:34,011 --> 00:56:35,944
and use some archival data

1142
00:56:35,978 --> 00:56:38,291
to get a glimpse
of how it happened.

1143
00:56:40,155 --> 00:56:41,605
- [Matt] Tylenda
was able to show

1144
00:56:41,639 --> 00:56:45,056
that V1309 Sco was a binary star

1145
00:56:45,091 --> 00:56:47,438
that went through
this death spiral,

1146
00:56:47,473 --> 00:56:50,130
and it's on the basis
of Tylenda's pattern

1147
00:56:50,165 --> 00:56:52,478
that Larry's saying,
"Oh, this KIC star

1148
00:56:52,512 --> 00:56:55,653
is gonna go through the same
motions, the same death spiral,

1149
00:56:55,688 --> 00:56:57,206
and eventually explode."

1150
00:56:58,725 --> 00:57:00,451
- Another person
that made a comment

1151
00:57:00,486 --> 00:57:04,213
about our work was Ondrej
Pejcha, a Czech astronomer

1152
00:57:04,248 --> 00:57:07,769
who was studying the actual
explosion of V1309 Sco,

1153
00:57:07,803 --> 00:57:10,254
trying to model what
was going on there.

1154
00:57:11,807 --> 00:57:13,533
He's able to make some headway

1155
00:57:13,568 --> 00:57:16,778
in understanding the explosion
that occurred in 2008.

1156
00:57:16,812 --> 00:57:20,782
However, Pejcha decided that
it won't work for our star.

1157
00:57:20,816 --> 00:57:23,129
- Yeah, I admit that
I'm actually skeptical

1158
00:57:23,163 --> 00:57:24,820
that the two stars will merge.

1159
00:57:24,855 --> 00:57:27,098
I still think that there
are other explanations

1160
00:57:27,133 --> 00:57:30,654
for what is observed that
are potentially more likely.

1161
00:57:30,688 --> 00:57:33,795
[gentle music]

1162
00:57:33,829 --> 00:57:35,521
- [Reporter] But
if they're lucky?

1163
00:57:35,555 --> 00:57:40,077
- If they're lucky, but it
would be extraordinarily luck,

1164
00:57:40,905 --> 00:57:43,321
extraordinary, incredible luck.

1165
00:57:44,702 --> 00:57:47,015
- Well, yes, I could be wrong.

1166
00:57:47,049 --> 00:57:48,568
We'll see that very soon.

1167
00:57:48,603 --> 00:57:51,053
And if I'm wrong, I'm gonna
be very publicly wrong.

1168
00:57:52,158 --> 00:57:54,160
- So the stakes are
getting higher here,

1169
00:57:54,194 --> 00:57:58,440
but he's no stranger to
taking risks, that's for sure.

1170
00:57:59,648 --> 00:58:02,340
Larry's a person who
will act out of principle

1171
00:58:02,375 --> 00:58:05,309
and takes risks if he
thinks they're justified.

1172
00:58:09,278 --> 00:58:10,901
[bus whirring]

1173
00:58:10,935 --> 00:58:12,868
- I still remember the shooting.

1174
00:58:14,180 --> 00:58:17,597
It was November 1st, so
the day after Halloween,

1175
00:58:17,632 --> 00:58:19,599
there was nothing that could
be done about the shooting.

1176
00:58:19,634 --> 00:58:24,742
The motivation and
whatnot was so unrelated

1177
00:58:24,777 --> 00:58:26,882
to anything anyone could guess.

1178
00:58:28,263 --> 00:58:31,162
Where with the flooding in
'93, it seemed quite clear

1179
00:58:32,578 --> 00:58:34,441
that there was something that
I, in particular, could do

1180
00:58:34,476 --> 00:58:36,892
that others either
weren't equipped

1181
00:58:36,927 --> 00:58:38,584
or weren't interested in doing.

1182
00:58:40,620 --> 00:58:42,311
- [Reporter] Now, Iowa has
seen its share of flooding

1183
00:58:42,346 --> 00:58:44,279
over the years, but
nothing of the magnitude

1184
00:58:44,313 --> 00:58:47,869
of the flood of '93,
water everywhere,

1185
00:58:47,903 --> 00:58:50,009
and that water spread
higher and farther

1186
00:58:50,043 --> 00:58:51,873
than in any past flooding.

1187
00:58:53,633 --> 00:58:55,324
- The flooding in Iowa

1188
00:58:55,359 --> 00:58:59,536
was a really big
piece of our history.

1189
00:59:00,916 --> 00:59:02,331
- It affected my neighborhood.

1190
00:59:02,366 --> 00:59:04,161
The effect to me was actually

1191
00:59:04,195 --> 00:59:07,854
to ask the question that
summer how was the dam managed

1192
00:59:07,889 --> 00:59:09,787
and were we doing
the best we could?

1193
00:59:09,822 --> 00:59:13,135
- And Larry, in his usual
very comprehensive way,

1194
00:59:13,170 --> 00:59:16,691
very careful way, looked
at this issue of flooding

1195
00:59:16,725 --> 00:59:17,623
and the dam.

1196
00:59:19,038 --> 00:59:22,351
- It certainly illustrates
the way I think about science,

1197
00:59:22,386 --> 00:59:26,010
which is we have models,
models make predictions,

1198
00:59:26,045 --> 00:59:28,426
and we test those predictions.

1199
00:59:29,773 --> 00:59:32,879
In 1993, they said that that
flood was a 500-year flood.

1200
00:59:32,914 --> 00:59:34,501
It would never happen again.

1201
00:59:34,536 --> 00:59:36,676
It seemed quite clear to
us that it would happen

1202
00:59:36,711 --> 00:59:38,402
in the next 10 to 15 years.

1203
00:59:38,436 --> 00:59:40,749
Area here where it
meets the river.

1204
00:59:40,784 --> 00:59:42,233
That led us to work very hard

1205
00:59:42,268 --> 00:59:45,236
to try and get them
to change those plans,

1206
00:59:45,271 --> 00:59:47,342
knowing that it
would happen again

1207
00:59:47,376 --> 00:59:50,517
and hoping that they would
do better the next time.

1208
00:59:50,552 --> 00:59:51,484
Concrete.

1209
00:59:52,727 --> 00:59:55,695
- Well, astronomers don't
necessarily have that

1210
00:59:55,730 --> 00:59:57,317
on their job description,

1211
00:59:57,352 --> 01:00:00,217
that they're helping people
in the local community.

1212
01:00:01,632 --> 01:00:03,841
- Along the way, his faculty
chair approached him and said,

1213
01:00:03,876 --> 01:00:07,604
"Larry, I think you maybe need
to refocus on your own work

1214
01:00:07,638 --> 01:00:10,261
and not mess around
with this stuff here."

1215
01:00:10,296 --> 01:00:13,299
- He spent a lot of
his personal time

1216
01:00:13,333 --> 01:00:16,129
on the issue of flooding.

1217
01:00:16,164 --> 01:00:19,029
- The time lost to working
on these other issues

1218
01:00:19,063 --> 01:00:21,963
had a serious negative
impact in his career

1219
01:00:23,136 --> 01:00:25,863
because, in the end, he
did not receive tenure.

1220
01:00:25,898 --> 01:00:28,003
[gentle music]

1221
01:00:28,038 --> 01:00:32,698
- Not getting tenure ends
your life at that university.

1222
01:00:32,732 --> 01:00:36,356
You have to leave, you're
told you're not good enough.

1223
01:00:38,565 --> 01:00:40,464
The irony in this case
is that Larry was right

1224
01:00:40,498 --> 01:00:42,777
about the flood and if
they'd listened to him,

1225
01:00:42,811 --> 01:00:46,090
they could have saved
themselves a lot of damage.

1226
01:00:47,229 --> 01:00:50,992
- 2008 was even more
devastating than 1993.

1227
01:00:51,026 --> 01:00:56,342
People lost their homes in
a broader area than in 1993.

1228
01:00:57,481 --> 01:00:59,276
- Larry's neighborhood,
when he lived there

1229
01:00:59,310 --> 01:01:02,106
had approximately 135 homes.

1230
01:01:02,935 --> 01:01:05,006
There were only about 65 left.

1231
01:01:06,317 --> 01:01:08,319
- I know, it was very dramatic.

1232
01:01:08,354 --> 01:01:12,323
So this is where our
house used to be.

1233
01:01:12,358 --> 01:01:14,015
- It's hard to recognize even.

1234
01:01:14,049 --> 01:01:15,948
I mean, I see the corners,
so I know it must be here.

1235
01:01:15,982 --> 01:01:17,743
- Yeah, yeah.

1236
01:01:17,777 --> 01:01:20,228
So 'cause Larsons were there,

1237
01:01:20,262 --> 01:01:22,989
but there's so many trees here,

1238
01:01:23,024 --> 01:01:25,440
as though it had not been here.

1239
01:01:25,474 --> 01:01:27,131
- [Larry] No house, yeah.

1240
01:01:27,166 --> 01:01:31,584
- Yeah, so I think the
house was right here.

1241
01:01:33,103 --> 01:01:34,414
- [Larry] Wow.

1242
01:01:34,449 --> 01:01:35,830
- Yeah, the house
was right here.

1243
01:01:35,864 --> 01:01:39,040
[melancholy music]

1244
01:01:43,941 --> 01:01:46,703
[gentle music]

1245
01:01:51,535 --> 01:01:54,124
- [Matt] Larry's the kind
of person who's gonna do

1246
01:01:54,158 --> 01:01:56,264
what he feels called to do,

1247
01:01:56,298 --> 01:01:59,370
even if it means
sacrifice on his part.

1248
01:02:00,509 --> 01:02:02,926
He wasn't setting
himself up for success

1249
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:06,792
according to how academics
work and how research works.

1250
01:02:07,793 --> 01:02:09,691
- He will chase
the unusual thing,

1251
01:02:09,726 --> 01:02:11,900
and I think that,
in part, accounts

1252
01:02:11,935 --> 01:02:14,696
for what is happening right now.

1253
01:02:14,731 --> 01:02:16,940
[gentle music]

1254
01:02:16,974 --> 01:02:18,562
- Serendipity, they often say,

1255
01:02:18,596 --> 01:02:21,116
comes to the
prepared mind, right?

1256
01:02:21,151 --> 01:02:24,637
We were open to this and
willing to follow it up.

1257
01:02:24,671 --> 01:02:26,535
[Larry and student
speaking faintly]

1258
01:02:26,570 --> 01:02:29,573
It's because of our focus on
the undergraduate students

1259
01:02:29,607 --> 01:02:32,403
and our willingness to
try something unlikely,

1260
01:02:32,438 --> 01:02:35,199
and our perseverance to
try it for four years

1261
01:02:35,234 --> 01:02:37,236
that we can come to this point.

1262
01:02:37,270 --> 01:02:39,065
In a sense, it's
serendipity, but in a sense,

1263
01:02:39,100 --> 01:02:42,241
this is exactly the kind of
place where that can happen.

1264
01:02:42,275 --> 01:02:45,244
[gentle music]

1265
01:02:47,211 --> 01:02:49,696
- There we go, we have
more selections of pop.

1266
01:02:49,731 --> 01:02:53,528
Over this past summer, we
analyzed some of the data

1267
01:02:53,562 --> 01:02:56,634
since September, and we
have added some new dots

1268
01:02:56,669 --> 01:02:58,775
to our plot, which
as you can see,

1269
01:02:58,809 --> 01:03:01,881
those little red dots follow
almost perfectly our line

1270
01:03:01,916 --> 01:03:05,402
that we had plotted from
our paper in September.

1271
01:03:07,128 --> 01:03:08,508
- So there's a real tension here

1272
01:03:08,543 --> 01:03:11,063
because Larry's
getting this pushback

1273
01:03:11,097 --> 01:03:14,445
about what his predictions are,
but he keeps taking the data

1274
01:03:14,480 --> 01:03:18,139
and it's all lining up just
like he says it's gonna happen.

1275
01:03:18,173 --> 01:03:21,073
- So question one,
are we still on track?

1276
01:03:21,107 --> 01:03:23,730
Yes, right?

1277
01:03:24,835 --> 01:03:27,424
Because it was very
publicly put out there.

1278
01:03:27,458 --> 01:03:29,391
- [Dave] I think it takes
a good deal of courage

1279
01:03:29,426 --> 01:03:31,566
to step out there in
front of other scientists

1280
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:33,085
who are going to do everything

1281
01:03:33,119 --> 01:03:35,432
to essentially shoot
it full of holes

1282
01:03:36,122 --> 01:03:38,159
and to still go forward.

1283
01:03:40,575 --> 01:03:44,544
- Ideally, you want as risky
a prediction as possible

1284
01:03:44,579 --> 01:03:46,615
because that will
teach you the most

1285
01:03:46,650 --> 01:03:48,686
about the thing you're
trying to study.

1286
01:03:48,721 --> 01:03:52,242
In practice, it's very hard
to be a professional scientist

1287
01:03:52,276 --> 01:03:54,485
and make high-risk predictions.

1288
01:03:55,486 --> 01:03:58,110
Most predictions fail,

1289
01:03:58,144 --> 01:04:03,253
so if you make a really risky
prediction that then fails,

1290
01:04:03,287 --> 01:04:04,668
you lose everything.

1291
01:04:06,497 --> 01:04:08,672
- [Larry] I feel a lot
of pressure right now,

1292
01:04:08,706 --> 01:04:10,777
just the fact that there are
these a couple other groups

1293
01:04:10,812 --> 01:04:12,918
that have said,
"This doesn't work."

1294
01:04:12,952 --> 01:04:16,473
I want to get word out there
that that's not correct.

1295
01:04:18,061 --> 01:04:20,373
- [Matt] One of the issues
is that his prediction

1296
01:04:20,408 --> 01:04:22,341
seems to be based
on just dumb luck.

1297
01:04:22,375 --> 01:04:23,652
He doesn't have a theory

1298
01:04:23,687 --> 01:04:25,931
for why the star
would be doing this.

1299
01:04:25,965 --> 01:04:28,416
If he had a theory, it would've
helped to build the case

1300
01:04:28,450 --> 01:04:31,177
and to understand what's
gonna happen next.

1301
01:04:31,212 --> 01:04:33,904
[gentle music]

1302
01:04:35,319 --> 01:04:38,529
- I've learned tons about,
quote, unquote, "real science,"

1303
01:04:38,564 --> 01:04:41,463
what it's like to
be on the front line

1304
01:04:41,498 --> 01:04:43,914
in terms of this is
an abstract thing

1305
01:04:43,949 --> 01:04:45,433
that we don't understand

1306
01:04:45,467 --> 01:04:47,366
and we're right up against it.

1307
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,610
Like, we're actively
exploring avenues

1308
01:04:50,645 --> 01:04:53,475
and finding things that
work and don't work.

1309
01:04:53,510 --> 01:04:56,064
- I don't understand.
- Yes.

1310
01:04:56,099 --> 01:04:58,618
- It's...
- I don't either.

1311
01:04:58,653 --> 01:04:59,965
- I mean...

1312
01:04:59,999 --> 01:05:01,898
- So you may theoretically
have a disagreement

1313
01:05:01,932 --> 01:05:03,934
because you as humans just
don't know the answer.

1314
01:05:03,969 --> 01:05:07,248
The star does know the answer
and the star will tell us.

1315
01:05:08,525 --> 01:05:10,458
- [Student] My brain hurts.

1316
01:05:10,492 --> 01:05:11,908
- Well, because
it's been so hard,

1317
01:05:11,942 --> 01:05:14,117
nobody's been able to
get a decent structure,

1318
01:05:14,151 --> 01:05:15,601
the interior of
the contact binary,

1319
01:05:15,635 --> 01:05:17,983
and they've been trying
this since the 1970s.

1320
01:05:20,433 --> 01:05:23,643
- Like it or not,
Larry's prediction is
based on an analogy,

1321
01:05:23,678 --> 01:05:25,231
and that's pretty unsatisfying

1322
01:05:25,266 --> 01:05:27,475
from a scientific point of view.

1323
01:05:27,509 --> 01:05:29,442
He thinks that his star
looks like another star

1324
01:05:29,477 --> 01:05:32,169
that happened to behave
in some interesting way.

1325
01:05:32,204 --> 01:05:34,965
But usually you don't wanna
just point to a pattern,

1326
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:37,864
you want an underlying
explanation for it.

1327
01:05:37,899 --> 01:05:40,384
[gentle music]

1328
01:05:40,419 --> 01:05:41,730
- One of the interesting things

1329
01:05:41,765 --> 01:05:43,387
about the history of astronomy

1330
01:05:43,422 --> 01:05:45,631
is that you can just
talk about observations

1331
01:05:45,665 --> 01:05:47,460
of things you see in the sky,

1332
01:05:47,495 --> 01:05:50,498
and you can come up with
good mathematical predictions

1333
01:05:50,532 --> 01:05:52,983
based on totally
incorrect knowledge.

1334
01:05:53,018 --> 01:05:55,365
So for instance, you can predict

1335
01:05:55,399 --> 01:05:57,160
where the planets are
going to be on the sky,

1336
01:05:57,194 --> 01:05:59,645
assuming that the Earth is
the center of the universe,

1337
01:05:59,679 --> 01:06:01,681
and that works perfectly well,

1338
01:06:01,716 --> 01:06:04,029
but to get to sort
of a mature science,

1339
01:06:04,063 --> 01:06:06,963
you also want to be able
to answer why questions.

1340
01:06:06,997 --> 01:06:09,966
Why do the planets move in
these particular patterns?

1341
01:06:11,208 --> 01:06:14,280
- Newton gave us a
universal law of gravitation

1342
01:06:14,315 --> 01:06:15,833
and said, "Look, it's not just

1343
01:06:15,868 --> 01:06:17,801
that we can use our
intellectual capabilities

1344
01:06:17,835 --> 01:06:19,872
to understand and
evaluate the heavens,

1345
01:06:19,906 --> 01:06:23,531
but they're all governed
by the same few laws,"

1346
01:06:23,565 --> 01:06:26,499
and that was really a
change of worldview.

1347
01:06:27,362 --> 01:06:28,777
- [Owen] For the first time,

1348
01:06:28,812 --> 01:06:32,333
you began to look at
the heavens physically,

1349
01:06:32,367 --> 01:06:34,542
rather than geometrically.

1350
01:06:35,922 --> 01:06:39,236
- [Matthew] Newton's vision
of inert matter pulled on

1351
01:06:39,271 --> 01:06:41,273
by the force of
universal gravity

1352
01:06:41,307 --> 01:06:43,965
described by mathematical laws

1353
01:06:44,000 --> 01:06:47,520
explains in a satisfying
way all the things

1354
01:06:47,555 --> 01:06:50,316
that were known
up to that point.

1355
01:06:53,250 --> 01:06:54,631
So then the question becomes,

1356
01:06:54,665 --> 01:06:57,358
could it be extended
to new things?

1357
01:06:57,392 --> 01:06:59,705
Can Newton's cosmology
help us understand

1358
01:06:59,739 --> 01:07:01,845
something we have not yet seen?

1359
01:07:03,295 --> 01:07:04,813
And then your predictions have

1360
01:07:04,848 --> 01:07:07,747
some sort of metaphysical
meat behind them.

1361
01:07:07,782 --> 01:07:10,371
We're moving from just
being able to predict

1362
01:07:10,405 --> 01:07:12,476
where something is
going to be on the sky

1363
01:07:12,511 --> 01:07:15,445
based on observation to
tying those predictions

1364
01:07:15,479 --> 01:07:17,585
into a larger cosmology.

1365
01:07:17,619 --> 01:07:18,827
It's not just that
it's going to be

1366
01:07:18,862 --> 01:07:21,347
where we think it's going to be,

1367
01:07:21,382 --> 01:07:24,281
but we know how
the universe works

1368
01:07:24,316 --> 01:07:27,457
such that that prediction
is going to come true.

1369
01:07:29,148 --> 01:07:32,462
[suspenseful music]

1370
01:07:36,121 --> 01:07:38,675
- In the past six
months, my understanding

1371
01:07:38,709 --> 01:07:42,644
of how contact binaries
work has matured greatly,

1372
01:07:43,818 --> 01:07:46,510
and the key to that has
been one new discovery.

1373
01:07:46,545 --> 01:07:49,479
So we go through, then
we also have to address

1374
01:07:49,513 --> 01:07:51,964
what other people have
said, skeptical of us.

1375
01:07:53,414 --> 01:07:56,796
The discovery in
a massive data set

1376
01:07:56,831 --> 01:07:59,834
that was studied by
the Polish astronomer.

1377
01:08:01,215 --> 01:08:04,839
They have a table of 104 objects
that we wanna talk about.

1378
01:08:07,186 --> 01:08:10,672
He'd looked at a million
stars to find close binaries,

1379
01:08:10,707 --> 01:08:13,503
and he found 20,000
close binaries,

1380
01:08:13,537 --> 01:08:15,091
and then he looked
at those 20,000

1381
01:08:15,125 --> 01:08:18,094
and he found 100, which
were changing their orbits.

1382
01:08:18,128 --> 01:08:22,684
I took those and plotted
them in a way he didn't plot,

1383
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:27,379
and was able to throw
away 90% of them

1384
01:08:27,413 --> 01:08:29,795
and find just seven
that are left.

1385
01:08:29,829 --> 01:08:31,624
They're doing something new.

1386
01:08:33,385 --> 01:08:34,938
- By analyzing data

1387
01:08:34,972 --> 01:08:37,906
that was supposed to be
refuting his predictions,

1388
01:08:37,941 --> 01:08:41,151
he was actually able to
identify a lead on more stars

1389
01:08:41,186 --> 01:08:43,878
that could possibly
explode in the future.

1390
01:08:43,912 --> 01:08:46,777
[gentle music]

1391
01:08:46,812 --> 01:08:49,228
- [Matt] So we don't
know what's gonna happen

1392
01:08:49,263 --> 01:08:50,954
with the KIC star,

1393
01:08:50,988 --> 01:08:55,027
but the addition of these
seven stars gives Larry a basis

1394
01:08:55,061 --> 01:08:57,581
for building a theory
and understanding

1395
01:08:57,616 --> 01:09:00,998
how to look for
this kind of star.

1396
01:09:02,621 --> 01:09:04,001
- All the targets
are really exciting

1397
01:09:04,036 --> 01:09:05,900
'cause maybe they're
merging star's very much

1398
01:09:05,934 --> 01:09:09,283
like V1309 Sco, maybe
even more like V1309 Sco

1399
01:09:09,317 --> 01:09:10,767
than our star is.

1400
01:09:11,561 --> 01:09:13,149
But they're really faint,

1401
01:09:13,183 --> 01:09:15,875
and they're in a really
crowded part of the sky,

1402
01:09:15,910 --> 01:09:19,016
and especially, they're entering
the southern hemisphere.

1403
01:09:20,225 --> 01:09:21,674
- We can't do much more

1404
01:09:21,709 --> 01:09:24,229
without follow-up
data on those systems.

1405
01:09:24,263 --> 01:09:28,025
The problem is they're all
fairly dim and fairly southern,

1406
01:09:28,060 --> 01:09:31,339
and so we have
collaborators elsewhere

1407
01:09:31,374 --> 01:09:33,099
who are gonna help us with that.

1408
01:09:34,204 --> 01:09:36,033
- My name is Maja Vuckovic.

1409
01:09:36,068 --> 01:09:38,898
I'm a professor at the
University of Valparaiso,

1410
01:09:38,933 --> 01:09:42,108
which is not in the United
States, it's in Chile.

1411
01:09:42,143 --> 01:09:45,388
When I met Larry a
year ago on a workshop,

1412
01:09:45,422 --> 01:09:47,700
he started to explain to me
about this group of stars.

1413
01:09:47,735 --> 01:09:49,150
And so then I was like,

1414
01:09:49,185 --> 01:09:50,910
"Well, we should just
follow these stars."

1415
01:09:52,188 --> 01:09:54,500
These stars happen to be
in the southern hemisphere,

1416
01:09:54,535 --> 01:09:56,502
so not reachable from the north.

1417
01:09:57,745 --> 01:09:59,712
- [Larry] And
probably next summer,

1418
01:09:59,747 --> 01:10:01,680
a trip to Chile
would be involved

1419
01:10:01,714 --> 01:10:05,201
to take some data

1420
01:10:05,235 --> 01:10:08,549
and really know what's
going on with those stars.

1421
01:10:08,583 --> 01:10:12,138
- [Matt] This is a
really exciting time
for Larry's project.

1422
01:10:12,173 --> 01:10:16,557
The observations are continuing
to confirm his prediction.

1423
01:10:16,591 --> 01:10:19,732
He's got a growing
number of collaborators.

1424
01:10:21,769 --> 01:10:23,426
The other thing that's
interesting is that

1425
01:10:23,460 --> 01:10:26,187
I think we're entering
this sort of a golden age

1426
01:10:26,222 --> 01:10:29,225
of observational
astronomy for the public.

1427
01:10:29,259 --> 01:10:33,643
We had this solar eclipse,
which much of the nation saw,

1428
01:10:33,677 --> 01:10:36,266
and really captured
the popular imagination

1429
01:10:36,301 --> 01:10:38,648
for what things are
doing in the sky.

1430
01:10:40,132 --> 01:10:42,928
[gentle music]

1431
01:10:47,277 --> 01:10:49,521
Larry's discovery,
if this star goes

1432
01:10:49,555 --> 01:10:52,834
into the red nova phase in 2022,

1433
01:10:52,869 --> 01:10:55,699
it'll be right in the
middle of that golden age.

1434
01:10:55,734 --> 01:10:58,668
[gentle music]

1435
01:11:02,672 --> 01:11:06,986
[people chattering indistinctly]

1436
01:11:11,370 --> 01:11:13,199
[gentle music]

1437
01:11:13,234 --> 01:11:16,789
- I have not always known I
wanted to be an astronomer.

1438
01:11:16,824 --> 01:11:22,070
I didn't grow up in a
wealthy family, necessarily,

1439
01:11:23,313 --> 01:11:26,074
so I didn't really have a
chance to go to college.

1440
01:11:26,109 --> 01:11:29,457
Right after high school,
I actually joined
the Marine Corps,

1441
01:11:29,492 --> 01:11:34,324
and it was actually while
I was in Afghanistan

1442
01:11:34,359 --> 01:11:37,154
that I saw the lunar eclipse

1443
01:11:38,017 --> 01:11:40,088
when I was out there in 2011.

1444
01:11:40,123 --> 01:11:44,817
And then I saw the lunar
eclipse again six months later,

1445
01:11:44,852 --> 01:11:46,474
and something kind of clicked

1446
01:11:46,509 --> 01:11:49,650
in my head of, yeah, this
is something worth pursuing.

1447
01:11:49,684 --> 01:11:52,273
This is something I wanna do.

1448
01:11:52,308 --> 01:11:55,034
[gentle music]

1449
01:11:55,863 --> 01:11:59,211
[suspenseful music]

1450
01:12:04,285 --> 01:12:06,287
I first heard about
Larry's prediction

1451
01:12:06,322 --> 01:12:09,186
shortly after his
paper had come out.

1452
01:12:09,221 --> 01:12:12,328
Dr. Welsh, my advisor,
brought it up to me,

1453
01:12:12,362 --> 01:12:14,053
and he asked if, "Hey,

1454
01:12:14,088 --> 01:12:16,021
is this something
you'd wanna work on?"

1455
01:12:16,055 --> 01:12:17,540
And I said, "Yeah, you know,

1456
01:12:17,574 --> 01:12:19,127
it's something that
would help me."

1457
01:12:19,162 --> 01:12:21,751
Should be a quick
project, one summer, done.

1458
01:12:22,890 --> 01:12:26,169
[suspenseful music]

1459
01:12:31,001 --> 01:12:35,109
[suspenseful music continues]

1460
01:12:36,835 --> 01:12:38,630
- Because it was such
an interesting project

1461
01:12:38,664 --> 01:12:40,873
that lured us in
and said let's see

1462
01:12:40,908 --> 01:12:42,565
if we can make it a
little bit better.

1463
01:12:42,599 --> 01:12:45,291
We can get, grab this data that
Larry didn't have access to

1464
01:12:45,326 --> 01:12:46,845
and see if it helps.

1465
01:12:48,087 --> 01:12:49,710
- If we could get a better idea

1466
01:12:49,744 --> 01:12:51,436
of when they were gonna
merge and outburst,

1467
01:12:51,470 --> 01:12:53,714
then we would know when to
point our telescopes up there

1468
01:12:53,748 --> 01:12:55,509
and look for this explosion.

1469
01:12:55,543 --> 01:12:58,753
So we were pretty excited
for this to happen.

1470
01:13:00,479 --> 01:13:04,725
- But much to our surprise,
when we got the Vulcan data,

1471
01:13:04,759 --> 01:13:07,555
it didn't fit, it didn't work.

1472
01:13:07,590 --> 01:13:11,317
[suspenseful music]

1473
01:13:11,352 --> 01:13:14,251
[hand knocking]

1474
01:13:14,286 --> 01:13:16,909
- [Matt] Hey, I hear
you have a game changer.

1475
01:13:17,565 --> 01:13:19,015
- We do.

1476
01:13:19,049 --> 01:13:21,776
- [Matt] So do you
think it's real?

1477
01:13:21,811 --> 01:13:24,020
I mean, do you think
this one is right?

1478
01:13:25,401 --> 01:13:28,438
- The question here is about
our very first data point

1479
01:13:28,473 --> 01:13:31,855
at the left, they
don't place it there.

1480
01:13:31,890 --> 01:13:33,857
They place it an hour later.

1481
01:13:35,100 --> 01:13:35,997
How do they get something
an hour different

1482
01:13:36,032 --> 01:13:37,205
from what we get?

1483
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:38,552
- Yeah, that's a
huge difference.

1484
01:13:38,586 --> 01:13:40,864
I mean, and it's pretty obvious

1485
01:13:40,899 --> 01:13:43,936
that your model
depends pretty heavily

1486
01:13:43,971 --> 01:13:45,524
on the positioning
of that point.

1487
01:13:45,559 --> 01:13:48,044
- That's right, and they
agree with every other point,

1488
01:13:48,078 --> 01:13:50,322
so it all comes
down to that one.

1489
01:13:50,356 --> 01:13:52,842
Question is is their
offset the right one

1490
01:13:52,876 --> 01:13:54,878
or is our offset the right one?

1491
01:13:54,913 --> 01:13:57,502
[suspenseful music]

1492
01:13:57,536 --> 01:13:58,951
- As an undergraduate,

1493
01:13:58,986 --> 01:14:00,953
someone who hadn't
even officially moved

1494
01:14:00,988 --> 01:14:03,128
into the graduate program yet,

1495
01:14:03,162 --> 01:14:05,855
disagreeing with a
professional astronomer

1496
01:14:05,889 --> 01:14:09,341
who had been doing
this work for years,

1497
01:14:09,375 --> 01:14:11,516
I doubted myself a lot.

1498
01:14:12,758 --> 01:14:14,450
Are we doing something wrong?

1499
01:14:14,484 --> 01:14:16,072
Did we make a mistake or a
typo somewhere along the way,

1500
01:14:16,106 --> 01:14:19,316
and we double and
triple checked our data.

1501
01:14:19,351 --> 01:14:22,975
Everything that I have learned
about how to collect data,

1502
01:14:23,010 --> 01:14:26,600
the physics of the
stars, trust in that

1503
01:14:26,634 --> 01:14:28,636
to not just trust
someone else's prediction

1504
01:14:28,671 --> 01:14:32,088
that I'm the wrong one,
but to trust the science,

1505
01:14:32,122 --> 01:14:35,919
and we were certain
that we had this right.

1506
01:14:35,954 --> 01:14:39,198
[suspenseful music]

1507
01:14:44,928 --> 01:14:49,036
[suspenseful music continues]

1508
01:14:54,041 --> 01:14:58,148
[suspenseful music continues]

1509
01:15:15,649 --> 01:15:19,066
- Turns out the time we used,

1510
01:15:19,100 --> 01:15:21,206
we'd have the star
below the horizon,

1511
01:15:22,207 --> 01:15:24,416
so whatever is the
cause of it all,

1512
01:15:24,450 --> 01:15:27,177
it's clear that our
number cannot be right.

1513
01:15:28,972 --> 01:15:32,217
[melancholy music]

1514
01:15:37,774 --> 01:15:39,086
- [Matt] The problem here is

1515
01:15:39,120 --> 01:15:41,226
that Larry and Dan
were using a mix

1516
01:15:41,260 --> 01:15:43,539
of their own data
with other data,

1517
01:15:43,573 --> 01:15:45,299
and when they put
that all together,

1518
01:15:45,333 --> 01:15:47,059
they thought that a
certain model would work,

1519
01:15:47,094 --> 01:15:50,131
but it turns out that the
old data was mistaken.

1520
01:15:50,166 --> 01:15:54,929
The model Larry was using
can't fit all of the data.

1521
01:15:56,759 --> 01:16:00,003
[melancholy music]

1522
01:16:01,418 --> 01:16:03,386
So it seems pretty clear that
you're gonna want to have

1523
01:16:03,420 --> 01:16:07,148
a go-to statement to refer
people to it when people ask.

1524
01:16:07,183 --> 01:16:09,426
- Absolutely, and that'll, yeah,

1525
01:16:09,461 --> 01:16:12,257
and to think that
through a little bit.

1526
01:16:12,291 --> 01:16:13,707
- You can be as
careful as you want,

1527
01:16:13,741 --> 01:16:17,089
but implicit in every
scientific prediction

1528
01:16:17,124 --> 01:16:20,161
is the conditional statement,

1529
01:16:20,196 --> 01:16:22,198
assuming our data are reliable.

1530
01:16:22,232 --> 01:16:23,509
- [Larry] Right, right, right.

1531
01:16:23,544 --> 01:16:26,443
- It's always there
as a qualifier.

1532
01:16:27,237 --> 01:16:28,791
That point, for whatever reason,

1533
01:16:28,825 --> 01:16:30,620
whoever's fault it might be,

1534
01:16:30,655 --> 01:16:32,795
that point turned out
not to be reliable,

1535
01:16:32,829 --> 01:16:35,418
which undid the
whole prediction.

1536
01:16:38,110 --> 01:16:42,287
- Bottom line is,
therefore, the time we used

1537
01:16:42,321 --> 01:16:44,323
can't be the correct time.

1538
01:16:45,462 --> 01:16:48,362
The half day off has
to be the correct time.

1539
01:16:48,396 --> 01:16:53,609
The premise for what's unique
about this star is gone.

1540
01:16:56,473 --> 01:16:59,407
The prediction made
by this data point

1541
01:17:00,616 --> 01:17:02,272
just has randomly
followed what we predicted

1542
01:17:02,307 --> 01:17:04,999
for the last five years,
but for no good reason,

1543
01:17:05,034 --> 01:17:06,932
other than to lead us astray.

1544
01:17:07,623 --> 01:17:10,418
[gentle music]

1545
01:17:12,144 --> 01:17:15,423
- What's really frustrating
is that it's something

1546
01:17:15,458 --> 01:17:17,702
that really we
couldn't even control.

1547
01:17:19,082 --> 01:17:21,913
It's such an unlikely
source of error.

1548
01:17:21,947 --> 01:17:23,431
We had no reason to think

1549
01:17:23,466 --> 01:17:26,227
that that number
could have been wrong.

1550
01:17:26,262 --> 01:17:29,472
[melancholy music]

1551
01:17:32,061 --> 01:17:35,064
[snow rustling]

1552
01:17:37,583 --> 01:17:39,102
- We're going to
the annual meeting

1553
01:17:39,137 --> 01:17:41,553
of the Michigan Space
Grant Consortium

1554
01:17:41,587 --> 01:17:45,246
where we'll be presenting our
final word on our KIC star,

1555
01:17:45,281 --> 01:17:48,008
and I guess it'll be
the first public venue

1556
01:17:48,042 --> 01:17:50,700
to hear us speak
on the end of that,

1557
01:17:50,735 --> 01:17:56,188
but also exciting new
prospects for the future.

1558
01:17:57,362 --> 01:18:00,710
- So since the basis of
our model has changed,

1559
01:18:00,745 --> 01:18:03,540
our prediction is
no longer founded.

1560
01:18:04,265 --> 01:18:05,957
While it's disappointing

1561
01:18:05,991 --> 01:18:08,960
that there won't be a major
explosion in the next few years,

1562
01:18:08,994 --> 01:18:12,998
we have a second story that
we're very excited about.

1563
01:18:14,241 --> 01:18:15,932
- Yeah, so now we're
gonna begin the new story.

1564
01:18:15,967 --> 01:18:18,728
During our research, we
studied the OGLE survey of

1565
01:18:18,763 --> 01:18:20,972
about a million stars,
and we found seven

1566
01:18:21,006 --> 01:18:24,423
out of a million in this
survey with a rare long period

1567
01:18:24,458 --> 01:18:27,116
and a large negative
period derivative,

1568
01:18:27,150 --> 01:18:28,117
and so our question was-

1569
01:18:28,151 --> 01:18:29,774
- It was important to me

1570
01:18:29,808 --> 01:18:32,535
that we get a really good,
clear message this morning

1571
01:18:32,569 --> 01:18:35,365
as we're sort of wrapping
up that stage of,

1572
01:18:36,539 --> 01:18:38,265
it's not the KIC star
that's going to blow up,

1573
01:18:38,299 --> 01:18:41,233
but that we had a second
story where we really feel

1574
01:18:41,268 --> 01:18:44,236
we are understanding
the whole process now.

1575
01:18:44,271 --> 01:18:46,273
- Our surveys, and
maybe we might even find

1576
01:18:46,307 --> 01:18:48,309
the next stage three object.

1577
01:18:49,725 --> 01:18:51,381
[audience clapping]

1578
01:18:51,416 --> 01:18:54,108
- You know, we all had hopes
for a great demonstration

1579
01:18:54,143 --> 01:18:57,111
of the predictive power
of physical science,

1580
01:18:57,146 --> 01:18:58,699
so I was deflated

1581
01:18:58,734 --> 01:19:00,528
in the sense of the
excitement of the expectation.

1582
01:19:00,563 --> 01:19:02,220
It was in my calendar, you know,

1583
01:19:02,254 --> 01:19:03,497
watch out for the press release,

1584
01:19:03,531 --> 01:19:05,395
watch out for the observation.

1585
01:19:05,430 --> 01:19:08,502
And yet this is a terrific
example of how science works

1586
01:19:08,536 --> 01:19:10,746
and how science is
supposed to work.

1587
01:19:10,780 --> 01:19:14,128
- I'm glad to answer that
and I think your readers

1588
01:19:14,163 --> 01:19:16,268
will be interested to
know what's the update,

1589
01:19:16,303 --> 01:19:18,512
since they're wondering
what's happening.

1590
01:19:18,546 --> 01:19:21,101
This is how science
is supposed to work.

1591
01:19:21,135 --> 01:19:22,999
That is self-correcting.

1592
01:19:23,034 --> 01:19:24,794
If there's an error,
we will find it

1593
01:19:24,829 --> 01:19:27,383
and know when we're wrong.

1594
01:19:27,417 --> 01:19:30,110
[people chattering indistinctly]

1595
01:19:30,144 --> 01:19:31,697
- It's a disappointment,

1596
01:19:31,732 --> 01:19:33,803
but the way that it has
been discussed and handled

1597
01:19:33,838 --> 01:19:36,461
and processed has
been a huge testament

1598
01:19:36,495 --> 01:19:39,844
to what science should be
in terms of it's motivated

1599
01:19:39,878 --> 01:19:43,882
by a genuine desire to
understand the universe

1600
01:19:43,917 --> 01:19:45,125
and how it works.

1601
01:19:46,505 --> 01:19:49,060
And that's one thing that
inspires me about Molnar,

1602
01:19:49,094 --> 01:19:50,820
it's about finding the truth,

1603
01:19:50,855 --> 01:19:52,304
and he always tells us that,

1604
01:19:52,339 --> 01:19:55,894
and so I think
that's really cool.

1605
01:19:55,929 --> 01:19:58,690
[gentle music]

1606
01:20:03,660 --> 01:20:05,731
- [Matt] So Larry's
prediction didn't pan out,

1607
01:20:05,766 --> 01:20:09,011
but what he learned along the
way might actually be bigger

1608
01:20:09,045 --> 01:20:11,047
because the theory
could lead him

1609
01:20:11,082 --> 01:20:12,946
to lots of those kinds of stars,

1610
01:20:12,980 --> 01:20:16,812
and he's just starting to
look at these first seven.

1611
01:20:17,743 --> 01:20:20,505
[gentle music]

1612
01:20:20,539 --> 01:20:23,611
- This week, we will be
observing the targets

1613
01:20:23,646 --> 01:20:25,821
that my colleague Larry found.

1614
01:20:25,855 --> 01:20:29,652
In the case that Larry
is right, we will confirm

1615
01:20:29,686 --> 01:20:32,068
that these stars are definitely
getting closer together

1616
01:20:32,103 --> 01:20:36,417
and that maybe eventually
they will hug each other.

1617
01:20:37,971 --> 01:20:40,801
- So seven targets
that we're looking at

1618
01:20:40,836 --> 01:20:43,045
in the most crowded
part of the Milky Way,

1619
01:20:43,079 --> 01:20:46,738
this part here in Sagittarius,
which is the direction

1620
01:20:46,772 --> 01:20:49,327
towards the center
of our galaxy.

1621
01:20:49,361 --> 01:20:51,018
A place that we can see well,

1622
01:20:51,053 --> 01:20:54,988
if you're in the southern
hemisphere, straight overhead.

1623
01:20:55,022 --> 01:20:57,922
[uplifting music]

1624
01:21:04,066 --> 01:21:07,863
[uplifting music continues]

1625
01:21:13,006 --> 01:21:16,078
[paper rustling]

1626
01:21:16,112 --> 01:21:21,324
- [Maja] So here it says DSS
2 has a filter that is red.

1627
01:21:22,774 --> 01:21:24,569
- Though I was not in Chile, I
did lose quite a lot of sleep

1628
01:21:24,603 --> 01:21:26,467
over these last nine nights,

1629
01:21:27,572 --> 01:21:29,781
and I've seen enough
of the data to know

1630
01:21:29,815 --> 01:21:32,749
they are capable of
answering our question.

1631
01:21:34,959 --> 01:21:36,477
- The seven stars, it turns out,

1632
01:21:36,512 --> 01:21:39,515
are tracking just
as Larry predicts.

1633
01:21:40,930 --> 01:21:45,072
So he has seven live candidates
to go on and keep searching.

1634
01:21:45,107 --> 01:21:47,903
[gentle music]

1635
01:21:52,010 --> 01:21:55,634
- You fall off the bike, you
gotta get back on the bike.

1636
01:21:55,669 --> 01:21:58,568
I wanna make clear to
people that I am moving on

1637
01:21:58,603 --> 01:22:03,332
and that I'm moving on making
progress on emerging stars.

1638
01:22:03,366 --> 01:22:04,781
Long-term project.

1639
01:22:04,816 --> 01:22:06,714
- He was showing me
his latest research,

1640
01:22:06,749 --> 01:22:08,854
and I was actually
quite impressed

1641
01:22:08,889 --> 01:22:13,376
and interested in what
he has done recently.

1642
01:22:13,411 --> 01:22:14,791
- With Sean Matt.

1643
01:22:14,826 --> 01:22:17,242
- The new direction
is pretty exciting.

1644
01:22:17,277 --> 01:22:19,969
Larry has determined the ways

1645
01:22:20,004 --> 01:22:22,903
in which we might look for
stars which will be merging

1646
01:22:22,938 --> 01:22:24,663
in the near future.

1647
01:22:24,698 --> 01:22:27,943
- He was able to map out
how the whole population

1648
01:22:27,977 --> 01:22:29,772
of these binaries evolve

1649
01:22:29,806 --> 01:22:32,292
in relatively simple
and uncomplicated ways.

1650
01:22:32,326 --> 01:22:36,779
Now he's got a group of about
seven stars, and actually,

1651
01:22:36,813 --> 01:22:38,470
in the future, more
objects like this

1652
01:22:38,505 --> 01:22:39,920
can be identified.

1653
01:22:39,955 --> 01:22:43,372
They are so far away,
and [indistinct].

1654
01:22:44,235 --> 01:22:46,478
- I can see a path forward.

1655
01:22:46,513 --> 01:22:49,930
I can see how to scale this up.

1656
01:22:49,965 --> 01:22:53,727
It's probably gonna take 10
years to actually achieve,

1657
01:22:53,761 --> 01:22:56,074
but at that point,
we should be back

1658
01:22:56,109 --> 01:22:57,834
where we were two years ago,

1659
01:22:57,869 --> 01:23:00,251
with the candidate
that's gonna merge,

1660
01:23:00,285 --> 01:23:04,427
except we'll know that it
is, indeed, going to merge.

1661
01:23:05,601 --> 01:23:08,880
[suspenseful music]

1662
01:23:09,536 --> 01:23:11,848
[gentle music]

1663
01:23:11,883 --> 01:23:13,471
So what is the
nature of science?

1664
01:23:13,505 --> 01:23:15,991
Anybody tell me how
does science work?

1665
01:23:17,095 --> 01:23:18,994
It's a mystery.

1666
01:23:19,028 --> 01:23:21,479
Yeah, it is, in many ways.

1667
01:23:22,618 --> 01:23:24,482
What I like about
science is it's a place

1668
01:23:24,516 --> 01:23:26,415
where you can ask
cool questions, right?

1669
01:23:26,449 --> 01:23:29,383
There's this amazing
universe around us,

1670
01:23:29,418 --> 01:23:32,007
and we get to say how
does it work like that?

1671
01:23:32,938 --> 01:23:36,011
[suspenseful music]

1672
01:23:37,184 --> 01:23:40,394
- [Matthew] A failure
in science is a failure

1673
01:23:40,429 --> 01:23:42,810
to relinquish an idea

1674
01:23:42,845 --> 01:23:45,434
in the face of facts
that contradict it.

1675
01:23:46,849 --> 01:23:50,232
Science succeeds by getting
closer and closer to the truth

1676
01:23:50,266 --> 01:23:53,338
of what's actually
happening in the real world.

1677
01:23:53,373 --> 01:23:56,652
[melancholy music]

1678
01:23:56,686 --> 01:23:59,689
- [Elise] There's a
necessary epistemic humility,

1679
01:23:59,724 --> 01:24:01,519
a humility about
what we can know

1680
01:24:01,553 --> 01:24:04,004
and the limitations
of human knowledge

1681
01:24:04,039 --> 01:24:05,557
and human investigation.

1682
01:24:07,766 --> 01:24:10,942
- [Matthew] But our desire
to wonder how do things work

1683
01:24:10,976 --> 01:24:13,013
and what does this tell
us about who we are

1684
01:24:13,048 --> 01:24:15,464
and what our place
in the universe is,

1685
01:24:15,498 --> 01:24:17,569
this is what people do.

1686
01:24:19,088 --> 01:24:21,884
[gentle music]

1687
01:24:26,578 --> 01:24:28,615
- Do I think other
people are catching on

1688
01:24:28,649 --> 01:24:30,134
that I'm making progress?

1689
01:24:31,928 --> 01:24:32,860
Not yet.

1690
01:24:36,036 --> 01:24:38,694
In a sense, that's part
of the excitement as well.

1691
01:24:38,728 --> 01:24:40,868
In the next decade, I
should have the prediction

1692
01:24:40,903 --> 01:24:42,905
of the next one
that will blow up.

1693
01:24:44,044 --> 01:24:46,460
It may not be as near,
may not be as exciting,

1694
01:24:46,495 --> 01:24:49,946
but to actually
eventually get back to

1695
01:24:49,981 --> 01:24:52,673
can I predict the next
one that will blow up,

1696
01:24:53,502 --> 01:24:55,814
that is my long-term goal still.

1697
01:24:58,817 --> 01:25:04,029
Harder to get there,
but more sure.

1698
01:25:04,547 --> 01:25:06,825
[gentle music]

1699
01:25:13,038 --> 01:25:16,628
[gentle music continues]

1700
01:25:22,117 --> 01:25:25,706
[gentle music continues]

1701
01:25:31,056 --> 01:25:34,646
[gentle music continues]

1702
01:25:40,100 --> 01:25:43,690
[gentle music continues]

1703
01:25:49,109 --> 01:25:52,699
[gentle music continues]

1704
01:25:58,083 --> 01:26:01,673
[gentle music continues]

1705
01:26:07,127 --> 01:26:10,717
[gentle music continues]

1706
01:26:15,860 --> 01:26:19,657
[gentle music continues]

1707
01:26:25,110 --> 01:26:28,700
[gentle music continues]

1708
01:26:33,843 --> 01:26:37,640
[gentle music continues]

1709
01:26:42,852 --> 01:26:46,649
[gentle music continues]

1710
01:26:51,896 --> 01:26:55,693
[gentle music continues]

1711
01:27:01,146 --> 01:27:04,736
[gentle music continues]

1712
01:27:09,879 --> 01:27:13,676
[gentle music continues]

1713
01:27:18,923 --> 01:27:22,720
[gentle music continues]

1714
01:27:27,897 --> 01:27:31,694
[gentle music continues]

1715
01:27:36,906 --> 01:27:40,669
[gentle music continues]

1716
01:27:45,915 --> 01:27:49,712
[gentle music continues]

1717
01:27:54,890 --> 01:27:58,687
[gentle music continues]

1718
01:28:03,899 --> 01:28:07,661
[gentle music continues]

1719
01:28:12,942 --> 01:28:16,739
[gentle music continues]

1720
01:28:21,917 --> 01:28:25,714
[gentle music continues]

1721
01:28:34,136 --> 01:28:36,381
[gentle music ends]