1 00:00:06,006 --> 00:00:09,175 One, two, three… 2 00:00:09,259 --> 00:00:11,469 [all cheering] 3 00:00:11,553 --> 00:00:13,596 [narrator] We love watching people win. 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,598 I just won 250,000. 5 00:00:15,682 --> 00:00:16,599 [others chuckling] 6 00:00:16,683 --> 00:00:18,476 -I'm not joking. -[woman] You're not? 7 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:20,729 [narrator] Their reaction when they hit a jackpot… 8 00:00:20,812 --> 00:00:23,273 [woman 2] Oh, my God! Oh, my God! 9 00:00:23,356 --> 00:00:25,775 [all cheering] 10 00:00:25,859 --> 00:00:28,570 -[narrator] …bet on the right horse… -Oh, my God! 11 00:00:28,653 --> 00:00:30,697 What! What'd I tell you! 12 00:00:30,780 --> 00:00:32,365 [narrator] …or get that giant check. 13 00:00:32,449 --> 00:00:34,868 [all cheering] 14 00:00:34,951 --> 00:00:36,953 [narrator] The moment their lives change. 15 00:00:37,037 --> 00:00:39,664 {\an8}A hundred and fourteen million dollars! 16 00:00:39,748 --> 00:00:41,249 How does that sound? 17 00:00:41,332 --> 00:00:43,668 Ooo-wee! 18 00:00:43,752 --> 00:00:45,336 [narrator] {\an8}But wins like these… 19 00:00:45,420 --> 00:00:47,756 [overlapping crowds cheering] 20 00:00:48,631 --> 00:00:49,924 [narrator] …are rare. 21 00:00:50,508 --> 00:00:53,011 The gambling industry is built on losers, 22 00:00:53,094 --> 00:00:56,014 {\an8}and it's one of the biggest industries in the world. 23 00:00:56,097 --> 00:01:00,226 {\an8}It's worth slightly more than sports, which we really like betting on. 24 00:01:00,310 --> 00:01:02,479 {\an8}And it dwarfs other forms of entertainment. 25 00:01:04,105 --> 00:01:06,691 In the ten countries where people spend the most gambling 26 00:01:06,775 --> 00:01:09,861 across Europe, East Asia, America, and Australia, 27 00:01:09,944 --> 00:01:14,324 the average adult loses hundreds of dollars a year doing it. 28 00:01:14,908 --> 00:01:16,659 But that's just the average. 29 00:01:18,119 --> 00:01:21,831 {\an8}I think the last time I checked on my, sort of, net balance, as it were, 30 00:01:21,915 --> 00:01:25,168 {\an8}um, I was at around the negative two or £3,000 mark. 31 00:01:25,251 --> 00:01:29,255 {\an8}Within that four-hour period, I lost the 5,000 I came in with, 32 00:01:29,339 --> 00:01:31,508 {\an8}the 25,000 I won, 33 00:01:31,591 --> 00:01:35,303 {\an8}and then I took another 10,000 off of my cards. 34 00:01:35,386 --> 00:01:39,974 {\an8}The most I've ever won in a single day of gambling was 1.6 million, 35 00:01:40,058 --> 00:01:44,771 {\an8}and, um… the most I have ever lost in a single day of gambling was, 36 00:01:44,854 --> 00:01:46,898 {\an8}I would say, 1.6 million and change. 37 00:01:46,981 --> 00:01:49,776 {\an8}A lot, to me, would be losing… 38 00:01:49,859 --> 00:01:51,486 {\an8}$200? 39 00:01:52,237 --> 00:01:54,697 [narrator] And a lot of people play apps like these, 40 00:01:54,781 --> 00:01:57,075 where there's no chance of winning money. 41 00:01:57,158 --> 00:02:00,662 Their games look like gambling games, but the payout is virtual. 42 00:02:00,745 --> 00:02:04,124 What's real is the money you spend to keep playing. 43 00:02:05,458 --> 00:02:08,044 They're called social casinos, 44 00:02:08,128 --> 00:02:10,171 and they now generate nearly as much revenue 45 00:02:10,255 --> 00:02:12,423 as all the casinos on the Las Vegas Strip. 46 00:02:13,591 --> 00:02:15,510 Clearly people don't just gamble for money. 47 00:02:16,386 --> 00:02:18,179 There's something else going on. 48 00:02:18,263 --> 00:02:20,932 So, what is it? 49 00:02:21,015 --> 00:02:22,433 Why do we gamble? 50 00:02:23,476 --> 00:02:25,478 [narrator 2] That's the way it is with gamblers. 51 00:02:25,562 --> 00:02:27,105 Easy come, easy go. 52 00:02:27,188 --> 00:02:29,607 Here's the $5,000 ticket! 53 00:02:29,691 --> 00:02:32,277 [woman] Everybody would like to have a taste of being rich. 54 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,405 And you're looking at the next billionaire, okay? 55 00:02:35,488 --> 00:02:37,532 Step up! Last chance to bet! 56 00:02:37,615 --> 00:02:39,742 -[bell clanging] -[shouting] Buy, sir, on the bell! 57 00:02:39,826 --> 00:02:43,705 [narrator 3] A 14-million-to-one chance is a lot better than no chance at all. 58 00:02:43,788 --> 00:02:47,500 Gambling on fixed-odds betting machines is spreading like an epidemic. 59 00:02:48,585 --> 00:02:52,422 [narrator 2] The urge to get something for nothing has Joe in a vice-like grip. 60 00:03:00,221 --> 00:03:02,640 [narrator] Gambling has been around for a long time. 61 00:03:03,266 --> 00:03:07,687 Dice have dots instead of numbers because they predate our numbering system. 62 00:03:08,521 --> 00:03:10,398 But gambling became big business 63 00:03:10,481 --> 00:03:13,443 when we figured out how to calculate probabilities. 64 00:03:13,526 --> 00:03:16,529 Gambling operators are like insurance companies. 65 00:03:16,613 --> 00:03:19,449 Every year, homeowners pay for insurance. 66 00:03:19,532 --> 00:03:20,742 A lot of homeowners. 67 00:03:21,367 --> 00:03:24,412 And then every year, some of those homes will flood. 68 00:03:24,495 --> 00:03:27,498 For insurers, a flooded home is a lost bet. 69 00:03:27,582 --> 00:03:29,375 They're gonna owe the homeowner money. 70 00:03:29,459 --> 00:03:31,377 But if they do their math right, 71 00:03:31,461 --> 00:03:35,465 the money they make is still far greater than the money they pay out. 72 00:03:36,591 --> 00:03:38,384 Casinos use the same math. 73 00:03:39,969 --> 00:03:41,054 Take American roulette. 74 00:03:41,137 --> 00:03:42,472 It has 38 slots. 75 00:03:42,555 --> 00:03:46,392 Eighteen are red, 18 are black, and two are green. 76 00:03:46,476 --> 00:03:48,561 The casino tends to win on those. 77 00:03:49,187 --> 00:03:53,733 You can bet on red and win three spins in a row, or even ten spins in a row. 78 00:03:53,816 --> 00:03:56,236 But the casino knows, with enough time, 79 00:03:56,319 --> 00:04:00,615 your wins will get canceled out by your losses, plus a little extra. 80 00:04:01,241 --> 00:04:04,202 That's called the "law of large numbers." 81 00:04:04,744 --> 00:04:07,789 In a small slice of time, you can beat the odds, 82 00:04:07,914 --> 00:04:10,750 but with enough play, you can't escape them. 83 00:04:12,543 --> 00:04:13,920 Chance is math, 84 00:04:14,504 --> 00:04:15,797 but feeling lucky… 85 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,382 It's more like magic. 86 00:04:17,465 --> 00:04:23,388 {\an8}I had… many of the gambler, uh, philosophies. 87 00:04:23,471 --> 00:04:25,348 [narrator] Like the "gambler's fallacy." 88 00:04:25,431 --> 00:04:27,183 [Tiffany] I felt like if there were 89 00:04:27,267 --> 00:04:29,769 {\an8}four spins where I didn't win, 90 00:04:29,852 --> 00:04:32,772 {\an8}the fifth spin had to be a big one. 91 00:04:32,855 --> 00:04:35,900 [narrator] We keep playing because we believe a win is due, 92 00:04:35,984 --> 00:04:38,361 and are surprised if it doesn't come, 93 00:04:38,444 --> 00:04:43,283 because we intuitively think outcomes should break down more or less evenly, 94 00:04:43,366 --> 00:04:46,661 even though that's only true for really large samples. 95 00:04:47,620 --> 00:04:49,747 And then there's the "illusion of control," 96 00:04:49,831 --> 00:04:53,960 the belief that you can increase your odds in the face of pure chance. 97 00:04:54,043 --> 00:04:56,546 {\an8}Lottery players know it well. 98 00:04:56,629 --> 00:04:58,840 {\an8}[Adam] If I see a bus in front of me, the plate number, 99 00:04:58,923 --> 00:05:00,550 {\an8}I will memorize that plate. 100 00:05:00,633 --> 00:05:02,593 {\an8}They don't really mean anything, 101 00:05:02,677 --> 00:05:04,429 {\an8}but in your mind you're thinking that, 102 00:05:04,512 --> 00:05:07,765 {\an8}you're putting some value to it in order to win. 103 00:05:08,766 --> 00:05:10,143 [narrator] Or take dice. 104 00:05:10,226 --> 00:05:14,480 People tend to roll more softly when they're trying to roll a low number. 105 00:05:14,564 --> 00:05:18,192 {\an8}This magical thinking is part of what makes gambling fun. 106 00:05:18,818 --> 00:05:19,819 {\an8}Take slot machines. 107 00:05:19,902 --> 00:05:23,448 {\an8}They're the biggest money-maker at most major casinos, 108 00:05:23,531 --> 00:05:27,577 {\an8}even though if you strip them down, they're just random number generators 109 00:05:27,660 --> 00:05:29,829 {\an8}rigged in the casino's favor. 110 00:05:30,538 --> 00:05:35,418 So the original one-armed bandits were mechanical devices 111 00:05:35,501 --> 00:05:39,630 that had big levers that you pulled, hence the one arm, right? 112 00:05:39,714 --> 00:05:43,051 And you wouldn't even sit down because typically they didn't have seats. 113 00:05:43,134 --> 00:05:46,054 They were really meant as entertainment devices 114 00:05:46,137 --> 00:05:47,930 to quickly get your money 115 00:05:48,014 --> 00:05:50,933 or entertain you while you were waiting in line 116 00:05:51,017 --> 00:05:53,144 to play "real gambling" at the tables. 117 00:05:53,895 --> 00:05:56,189 [narrator] The invention took off across America. 118 00:05:57,106 --> 00:06:02,320 By the 1930s, New York City was home to an estimated 30,000 machines, 119 00:06:02,403 --> 00:06:03,654 thanks to the Mob, 120 00:06:03,738 --> 00:06:06,032 because slots were illegal. 121 00:06:06,616 --> 00:06:13,456 {\an8}Operation of these machines for many years in New York City has challenged 122 00:06:13,539 --> 00:06:16,667 the city authority and the police department. 123 00:06:16,751 --> 00:06:19,045 [narrator] The mayor launched a war on slots, 124 00:06:19,128 --> 00:06:22,757 calling them "mechanical larceny," because they were secretly rigged. 125 00:06:23,549 --> 00:06:25,551 And while he won the battle, 126 00:06:25,635 --> 00:06:27,470 the war… not so much. 127 00:06:28,930 --> 00:06:30,598 This was the Great Depression, 128 00:06:30,681 --> 00:06:33,768 and to raise revenue, Nevada legalized casinos. 129 00:06:35,228 --> 00:06:37,480 New York's mobsters headed west. 130 00:06:38,189 --> 00:06:40,400 [narrator 3] The main business of the town is gambling, 131 00:06:40,483 --> 00:06:42,735 perfectly legal under Nevada law. 132 00:06:43,403 --> 00:06:47,740 The most popular form of gambling in Las Vegas is the slot machine, 133 00:06:47,824 --> 00:06:50,952 which requires some muscle but no skill. 134 00:06:51,035 --> 00:06:53,663 Occasionally, he collects a few coins, 135 00:06:53,746 --> 00:06:55,456 just enough to keep him playing. 136 00:06:55,540 --> 00:06:58,626 [narrator] And slot machines have evolved a lot since then. 137 00:06:59,377 --> 00:07:02,755 I met a game designer in Las Vegas once. 138 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,716 He drew me a picture on this napkin. 139 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,345 {\an8}It was a simple graph: money and time. 140 00:07:09,429 --> 00:07:13,266 {\an8}He drew a really, really spiky, jagged line. 141 00:07:13,349 --> 00:07:15,560 [narrator] {\an8}These were the original slot machines. 142 00:07:15,643 --> 00:07:18,604 {\an8}[Natasha Schüll] It was the experience of someone putting in money, 143 00:07:18,688 --> 00:07:21,691 {\an8}winning a lot, and then losing it all very quickly. 144 00:07:21,774 --> 00:07:23,734 {\an8}Then he drew me another line. 145 00:07:23,818 --> 00:07:26,779 [narrator] These were {\an8}the next generation of slot machines. 146 00:07:26,863 --> 00:07:29,574 {\an8}They had chairs, so you could sit down, 147 00:07:29,657 --> 00:07:32,243 {\an8}and no more coin payoffs interrupting your play. 148 00:07:32,785 --> 00:07:34,495 If you let people sit there longer, 149 00:07:34,579 --> 00:07:37,665 maybe even made it comfortable and less fatiguing, 150 00:07:37,748 --> 00:07:39,876 you could get more money out of them in the end. 151 00:07:40,418 --> 00:07:42,211 [narrator] And no more handle. 152 00:07:42,962 --> 00:07:44,881 Slot machines have a button. 153 00:07:46,424 --> 00:07:50,011 [Natasha] So you're just there with your finger, touching like this. 154 00:07:50,094 --> 00:07:52,263 [narrator] As often as 20 times a minute. 155 00:07:52,930 --> 00:07:54,432 And they kept innovating. 156 00:07:54,515 --> 00:07:57,393 The mechanical reels are now screens. 157 00:07:57,477 --> 00:08:00,771 [Natasha] The way that your eyes are directed into the screen, 158 00:08:00,855 --> 00:08:03,357 it's all about reducing your fatigue 159 00:08:03,441 --> 00:08:07,111 and moving you from one event to the next event 160 00:08:07,195 --> 00:08:10,948 to the next event, in a seamless and frictionless way. 161 00:08:11,532 --> 00:08:14,785 [narrator] And with more reels and rows, there were more pay lines, 162 00:08:14,869 --> 00:08:17,079 patterns that give you a win. 163 00:08:17,163 --> 00:08:18,498 And with penny slots… 164 00:08:18,581 --> 00:08:22,668 [Natasha] You've got 50, 100, sometimes 200 lines, 165 00:08:22,752 --> 00:08:26,214 and you are putting in pennies for each line. 166 00:08:26,297 --> 00:08:27,757 And if you think about it, 167 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:29,842 if you're betting on 50 lines, 168 00:08:29,926 --> 00:08:32,845 you're going to get some of that back almost every time. 169 00:08:32,929 --> 00:08:35,681 [narrator] It's usually less than what you bet, 170 00:08:35,765 --> 00:08:37,433 but it still feels like a win. 171 00:08:38,059 --> 00:08:39,977 {\an8}The industry hit the sweet spot. 172 00:08:40,061 --> 00:08:41,687 {\an8}It learned how to give players… 173 00:08:41,771 --> 00:08:44,982 {\an8}[Natasha] A smooth ride down to zero. 174 00:08:45,066 --> 00:08:47,360 [narrator] {\an8}No more big wins or big losses. 175 00:08:47,443 --> 00:08:49,695 {\an8}It just gently drains your money. 176 00:08:50,404 --> 00:08:52,323 That doesn't bring to mind 177 00:08:52,406 --> 00:08:56,285 gambling and suspense and risk and volatility. 178 00:08:56,369 --> 00:09:00,373 It brings to mind comfort and rhythm and lulling. 179 00:09:00,456 --> 00:09:01,541 And this is exactly 180 00:09:01,624 --> 00:09:06,420 how, uh, regular slot machine players talk about their experience. 181 00:09:06,504 --> 00:09:10,341 {\an8}It's soothing for me, and kind of takes me away from everything for a while. 182 00:09:10,424 --> 00:09:13,844 {\an8}That three to four seconds that that machine was spinning, 183 00:09:13,928 --> 00:09:17,473 there was nothing, nothing that mattered. 184 00:09:17,557 --> 00:09:19,976 {\an8}I could sit there for hours and just entertain myself. 185 00:09:20,059 --> 00:09:21,686 {\an8}I felt… free. 186 00:09:22,270 --> 00:09:23,271 {\an8}I felt peaceful. 187 00:09:23,354 --> 00:09:25,690 [narrator] There's a name for this feeling. 188 00:09:25,773 --> 00:09:30,069 [Natasha] "The zone" is not where you're even worried about winning 189 00:09:30,152 --> 00:09:32,154 or being in control. 190 00:09:32,238 --> 00:09:34,657 You really just want to keep going. 191 00:09:34,740 --> 00:09:36,742 [narrator] The zone is the hold, 192 00:09:36,826 --> 00:09:38,869 but it all starts with "the hook." 193 00:09:39,537 --> 00:09:41,706 It's all about the pause, that moment between 194 00:09:41,789 --> 00:09:45,126 when we place a gamble and when the possible outcome may occur. 195 00:09:45,209 --> 00:09:47,587 [narrator] Monkeys have taught us a lot about this. 196 00:09:47,670 --> 00:09:50,464 In one study, researchers gave monkeys juice, 197 00:09:50,548 --> 00:09:53,384 and the dopamine activity in their brains increased, 198 00:09:53,467 --> 00:09:56,470 a reaction associated with pleasure in humans. 199 00:09:56,554 --> 00:09:59,181 Later, the researchers added a step. 200 00:09:59,265 --> 00:10:00,683 They gave the monkeys a signal, 201 00:10:00,766 --> 00:10:02,727 and if the monkeys touched a lever, 202 00:10:02,810 --> 00:10:04,478 then they got some juice. 203 00:10:05,229 --> 00:10:06,647 Once they trained the monkeys… 204 00:10:06,731 --> 00:10:09,317 Signal, touch the lever, reward. 205 00:10:09,775 --> 00:10:12,278 …they measured the monkeys' dopamine activity. 206 00:10:13,195 --> 00:10:15,072 And when the monkeys got the signal, 207 00:10:15,156 --> 00:10:17,700 that's when their dopamine activity increased. 208 00:10:17,783 --> 00:10:22,038 Then it went down, they touched the lever, and it stayed down, 209 00:10:22,121 --> 00:10:24,040 even when they got the reward. 210 00:10:24,123 --> 00:10:27,293 There's evidence this happens in our brains, too. 211 00:10:27,376 --> 00:10:29,879 [Mike Robinson] We start getting a flutter of dopamine increasing 212 00:10:29,962 --> 00:10:32,298 in anticipation of the possible reward. 213 00:10:32,882 --> 00:10:34,342 [narrator] That's the pause. 214 00:10:35,301 --> 00:10:38,471 {\an8}It didn't even matter what the spin showed. 215 00:10:38,554 --> 00:10:42,224 {\an8}I got the high off of the actual spin itself, 216 00:10:42,308 --> 00:10:45,144 {\an8}the… the anticipation of the win. 217 00:10:45,227 --> 00:10:48,189 {\an8}There's uncertainty, which is kind of uncomfortable, 218 00:10:48,272 --> 00:10:49,774 {\an8}but, you know, 219 00:10:50,274 --> 00:10:54,862 {\an8}just uncomfortable enough to be… appealing. 220 00:10:54,945 --> 00:10:57,698 It is likely that some of that additional dopamine 221 00:10:57,782 --> 00:11:02,119 is what makes reward gambling so fundamentally attractive. 222 00:11:02,787 --> 00:11:04,372 [narrator] And potentially addictive. 223 00:11:05,581 --> 00:11:07,875 {\an8}Just like drugs, you build a tolerance 224 00:11:07,958 --> 00:11:11,545 {\an8}to the high that you're getting from gambling. 225 00:11:11,629 --> 00:11:14,590 {\an8}I've probably gambled straight for 30, 32 hours. 226 00:11:14,674 --> 00:11:17,051 {\an8}This is just to show you 227 00:11:17,134 --> 00:11:19,595 {\an8}how much I played over the years. 228 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,932 {\an8}I lost my house, I lost my car. 229 00:11:23,015 --> 00:11:28,396 {\an8}I lost my belongings, my kids' belongings, my husband's belongings. 230 00:11:28,479 --> 00:11:30,690 {\an8}It destroyed my marriage of almost 20 years. 231 00:11:30,773 --> 00:11:33,484 {\an8}It, um, hurt everyone I knew. 232 00:11:34,485 --> 00:11:38,656 [narrator] We know that some factors mean a higher risk for issues with gambling. 233 00:11:38,739 --> 00:11:41,367 More than three-quarters of people with a gambling problem 234 00:11:41,450 --> 00:11:43,452 have also had an anxiety disorder, 235 00:11:43,536 --> 00:11:47,873 and almost as many have struggled with depression or substance abuse. 236 00:11:47,957 --> 00:11:49,959 And the more disadvantaged your neighborhood, 237 00:11:50,042 --> 00:11:51,836 the higher your risk, too. 238 00:11:51,919 --> 00:11:56,799 In the poorest American areas, 10% of adults are problem gamblers. 239 00:11:57,383 --> 00:12:00,469 But the risk is also higher for certain types of games. 240 00:12:01,095 --> 00:12:04,223 According to one study, people who bet on sports or play cards 241 00:12:04,306 --> 00:12:07,768 get addicted, on average, in three and a half years, 242 00:12:07,852 --> 00:12:10,896 but for slot players, it takes just a little over one. 243 00:12:11,564 --> 00:12:15,526 Every single spin, every single play that an individual does 244 00:12:15,609 --> 00:12:17,862 is actually going to give that dopamine response. 245 00:12:17,945 --> 00:12:21,699 [narrator] Have all those design innovations made the problem worse? 246 00:12:21,782 --> 00:12:22,992 We don't know for sure. 247 00:12:23,075 --> 00:12:27,079 The ICRG is the largest funder of this type of research, 248 00:12:27,163 --> 00:12:28,998 but they haven't looked into it. 249 00:12:29,081 --> 00:12:30,541 One possible reason? 250 00:12:30,624 --> 00:12:32,960 They are funded by the gaming industry, 251 00:12:33,586 --> 00:12:36,005 um, which might be somewhat… 252 00:12:36,088 --> 00:12:38,716 I don't know to what extent it is truly problematic, 253 00:12:38,799 --> 00:12:40,760 it just has the risk of being problematic. 254 00:12:41,552 --> 00:12:44,847 [narrator] Other major funders of gambling {\an8}research in the UK and Australia 255 00:12:44,930 --> 00:12:47,308 {\an8}also get a lot of money from industry. 256 00:12:48,017 --> 00:12:53,689 {\an8}The gambling industry is a prime case of what's called industry capture, 257 00:12:53,773 --> 00:12:57,276 in terms of the industry, uh, capturing 258 00:12:57,359 --> 00:13:01,822 the work of scientists to support what it does, 259 00:13:01,906 --> 00:13:04,366 and to deflect attention away from the harms 260 00:13:04,450 --> 00:13:06,994 that its products and practices creates. 261 00:13:07,077 --> 00:13:10,998 [narrator] The gambling industry doesn't rig the games like the Mob once did. 262 00:13:11,081 --> 00:13:14,251 If you see three bars, for example, on this wheel, 263 00:13:14,335 --> 00:13:19,173 that doesn't mean that the machine has three chances to stop at a bar, 264 00:13:19,256 --> 00:13:21,383 because two of them are probably dead. 265 00:13:21,967 --> 00:13:25,554 [narrator] They found smarter, legal ways of getting us to lose. 266 00:13:28,557 --> 00:13:30,893 But some people still manage to win. 267 00:13:31,644 --> 00:13:32,895 My name is Semyon Dukach. 268 00:13:32,978 --> 00:13:35,689 I run a venture capital fund called One Way Ventures 269 00:13:35,773 --> 00:13:37,525 that backs immigrant founders. 270 00:13:37,608 --> 00:13:42,404 And long ago, I did play on and help run one of the MIT blackjack teams. 271 00:13:42,488 --> 00:13:44,198 [narrator] You might have heard of them. 272 00:13:44,281 --> 00:13:47,785 [Semyon] Blackjack is both a game of chance and a game of skill, right? 273 00:13:47,868 --> 00:13:51,705 {\an8}It's not a perfect game of skill, uh, because chance plays a big factor, 274 00:13:51,789 --> 00:13:54,041 {\an8}but it-- it has a component of skill. 275 00:13:54,750 --> 00:13:56,627 [narrator] And poker is also a game of skill, 276 00:13:56,710 --> 00:13:58,504 especially if you're a professional 277 00:13:58,587 --> 00:14:00,339 {\an8}who's won a lot of money playing it. 278 00:14:00,422 --> 00:14:02,967 [reporter] Maria Konnikova {\an8}called her opponent's bluff, 279 00:14:03,050 --> 00:14:05,803 -winning nearly $85,000. {\an8}-[crowd applauding] 280 00:14:05,886 --> 00:14:08,597 [commentator] And Maria Konnikova {\an8}KO's Maduka Meragal. 281 00:14:09,348 --> 00:14:10,224 {\an8}[chuckles] Whoa. 282 00:14:10,307 --> 00:14:14,311 [commentator 2] He misses on this {\an8}occasion, and Maria Konnikova survives. 283 00:14:14,395 --> 00:14:17,523 I'm not a gambler, I'm a poker player. Good gambling, 284 00:14:17,606 --> 00:14:19,817 which means gambling where you can have an edge 285 00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:22,361 and take calculated risks where you're a favorite, 286 00:14:22,444 --> 00:14:23,863 where you understand the odds, 287 00:14:23,946 --> 00:14:25,072 is much more calculated. 288 00:14:25,614 --> 00:14:27,867 [narrator] Poker and blackjack aren't games of skill 289 00:14:27,950 --> 00:14:30,536 in the same way chess is a game of skill. 290 00:14:30,619 --> 00:14:34,331 Modern computers have learned to defeat world chess champions, 291 00:14:34,415 --> 00:14:35,624 every game. 292 00:14:36,417 --> 00:14:38,002 That's a pure skill game. 293 00:14:38,085 --> 00:14:40,296 If you play perfectly, you're unbeatable. 294 00:14:41,422 --> 00:14:44,967 {\an8}But in 2019, when a computer program named Pluribus 295 00:14:45,050 --> 00:14:47,970 {\an8}played five poker pros in no-limit Texas hold 'em, 296 00:14:48,053 --> 00:14:50,180 {\an8}it didn't win every hand, 297 00:14:50,264 --> 00:14:52,224 {\an8}though it did win the vast majority of them. 298 00:14:52,892 --> 00:14:55,561 In both poker and blackjack, there's the luck of the draw, 299 00:14:55,644 --> 00:14:58,063 but since there's more skill than chance, 300 00:14:58,147 --> 00:15:00,482 the best players still win the long game. 301 00:15:01,150 --> 00:15:03,193 The basic idea of card counting 302 00:15:03,277 --> 00:15:06,196 is keeping track of the cards that came out of the deck, 303 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:10,117 because that affects the probabilities of the cards that are remaining in the deck. 304 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,537 [narrator] Here's how to do it, the 30-second version. 305 00:15:13,621 --> 00:15:17,082 The "count" is your record of the cards that have been dealt. 306 00:15:17,166 --> 00:15:20,044 The higher the count, the more you should bet. 307 00:15:20,127 --> 00:15:24,256 You can ignore these three cards, but for every small card that's dealt, 308 00:15:24,340 --> 00:15:26,300 add one to your count, 309 00:15:26,383 --> 00:15:29,011 and for every high card, subtract one. 310 00:15:29,094 --> 00:15:31,513 Because the more high cards that come out in a deal, 311 00:15:31,597 --> 00:15:34,016 the less likely you are to get one later, 312 00:15:34,099 --> 00:15:35,309 and these cards… 313 00:15:35,392 --> 00:15:38,479 On average, help the player a little bit more than the dealer. 314 00:15:38,562 --> 00:15:42,399 {\an8}When you get into a situation where randomly a bunch of little cards came out, 315 00:15:42,483 --> 00:15:44,902 {\an8}it means there's extra big cards left in the deck. 316 00:15:44,985 --> 00:15:47,237 {\an8}So you would bet a lot more in that situation. 317 00:15:47,321 --> 00:15:48,822 That's the basic concept. 318 00:15:48,906 --> 00:15:51,283 [narrator] If your mind wandered during that, 319 00:15:51,367 --> 00:15:54,119 then you probably shouldn't try it yourself. 320 00:15:54,203 --> 00:15:55,329 Let's not kid ourselves. 321 00:15:55,412 --> 00:15:58,582 Almost all blackjack players are, in fact, terrible blackjack players. 322 00:15:58,666 --> 00:16:01,043 The casinos are in the business of making money, 323 00:16:01,126 --> 00:16:02,795 not in the business of losing money. 324 00:16:03,545 --> 00:16:06,465 [narrator] Because casinos are always playing the long game. 325 00:16:06,548 --> 00:16:08,884 But it's hard for players to do that. 326 00:16:08,968 --> 00:16:09,927 We're human. 327 00:16:10,552 --> 00:16:14,932 We never allowed the emotions of winning or losing to interfere with optimal play. 328 00:16:15,015 --> 00:16:16,850 That's what made us a professional team. 329 00:16:16,934 --> 00:16:18,978 You have to learn to manage your emotions. 330 00:16:19,061 --> 00:16:21,563 [narrator] So you can see the patterns that are real 331 00:16:21,647 --> 00:16:23,607 and ignore the ones that aren't. 332 00:16:23,691 --> 00:16:26,360 And it's the Godfather lesson of poker. 333 00:16:26,443 --> 00:16:28,487 It's not personal. It's strictly business. 334 00:16:28,570 --> 00:16:31,448 For me personally, I view the MIT Blackjack Team 335 00:16:31,532 --> 00:16:34,034 as my first startup company, 336 00:16:34,118 --> 00:16:36,078 and also my first investment fund. 337 00:16:36,745 --> 00:16:38,872 [narrator] {\an8}Investing well involves skill, 338 00:16:38,956 --> 00:16:42,710 {\an8}but even if you're really good, there's always an element of chance. 339 00:16:43,293 --> 00:16:46,255 In the long run, the market has always gone up. 340 00:16:46,338 --> 00:16:48,549 So the longer you let your money sit there, 341 00:16:48,632 --> 00:16:50,968 the more likely you are to come out on top, 342 00:16:51,051 --> 00:16:53,762 but in the short-term, like a single day, 343 00:16:53,846 --> 00:16:56,181 it can be a real roll of the dice. 344 00:16:56,265 --> 00:16:58,767 Let me just clarify, day-trading isn't investing. 345 00:16:58,851 --> 00:17:00,352 Day-trading actually is gambling. 346 00:17:00,436 --> 00:17:03,439 [narrator] Robinhood is one of {\an8}the most popular trading apps, 347 00:17:03,522 --> 00:17:05,315 {\an8}especially with younger people. 348 00:17:05,399 --> 00:17:06,483 {\an8}When you sign up… 349 00:17:06,567 --> 00:17:10,863 It came reeling up like a slot machine, ding, ding, ding. 350 00:17:10,946 --> 00:17:12,948 [narrator] Three big question marks. 351 00:17:13,032 --> 00:17:15,409 New users get a free stock, 352 00:17:15,492 --> 00:17:17,828 or rather, they get to "choose" it. 353 00:17:17,911 --> 00:17:20,789 [Natasha] I had to take my finger, and on my phone, 354 00:17:20,873 --> 00:17:23,959 actually scrub off one of the question marks 355 00:17:24,043 --> 00:17:28,172 like I was playing a lottery ticket, like a scratch lottery ticket. 356 00:17:28,255 --> 00:17:31,216 [narrator] You can buy other stocks in a matter of seconds. 357 00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:32,801 And when you're not on this app, 358 00:17:32,885 --> 00:17:35,846 alerts to price movements nudge you to trade more. 359 00:17:35,929 --> 00:17:37,973 It's good for people to think about investing, 360 00:17:38,057 --> 00:17:40,434 it's educational, but it's also dangerous, 361 00:17:40,517 --> 00:17:42,644 of course, because if people start day-trading, 362 00:17:42,728 --> 00:17:44,813 if people start gambling with their investing, 363 00:17:44,897 --> 00:17:46,440 they could lose a lot of money. 364 00:17:46,523 --> 00:17:51,111 [narrator] The gambling industry has known this simple truth for a long time: 365 00:17:51,779 --> 00:17:53,906 when it's easy to gamble, we gamble more. 366 00:17:55,365 --> 00:17:57,659 If you live within 10 miles of a casino, 367 00:17:57,743 --> 00:18:02,122 you're more than twice as likely to have a gambling problem as someone who doesn't. 368 00:18:02,206 --> 00:18:04,708 {\an8}Think about people who are online gamblers. 369 00:18:04,792 --> 00:18:07,753 {\an8}They're potentially walking around with a casino in their pocket. 370 00:18:07,836 --> 00:18:11,173 {\an8}I can't imagine how much harder my recovery would have been 371 00:18:11,256 --> 00:18:16,386 {\an8}if I had to, um… think to myself, "Well, I can just download an app." 372 00:18:16,470 --> 00:18:18,138 {\an8}When I look this back, 373 00:18:18,222 --> 00:18:23,977 {\an8}I see a part of my life that was really in a bad, bad place, 374 00:18:24,061 --> 00:18:25,562 {\an8}but I'm no longer there anymore. 375 00:18:25,646 --> 00:18:27,523 {\an8}In those rooms in Gamblers Anonymous, 376 00:18:27,606 --> 00:18:31,860 {\an8}I felt like I'd just made a mistake, and that I'm a human. 377 00:18:31,944 --> 00:18:33,362 {\an8}Whatever works for you… 378 00:18:34,029 --> 00:18:35,656 {\an8}uh… get-- get help. 379 00:18:35,739 --> 00:18:37,574 {\an8}The most important thing is to get help. 380 00:18:37,658 --> 00:18:41,870 {\an8}The availability for gambling is-- is terrible. 381 00:18:41,954 --> 00:18:44,957 {\an8}It's-- it's horrible now, and it… 382 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,084 {\an8}seems like it's only gonna get worse. 383 00:18:47,876 --> 00:18:49,169 [narrator] In 2020, 384 00:18:49,253 --> 00:18:51,880 as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe, 385 00:18:51,964 --> 00:18:53,715 sports went on hiatus. 386 00:18:54,383 --> 00:18:56,009 Racetracks shut down. 387 00:18:56,093 --> 00:18:58,262 Casinos closed their doors. 388 00:18:58,762 --> 00:19:01,014 People are bored, anxious and isolated. 389 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,726 [narrator] In the US, trading on Robinhood soared. 390 00:19:05,227 --> 00:19:07,312 So did playing state digital lotteries, 391 00:19:07,396 --> 00:19:09,690 where you can play scratch-offs with your mouse. 392 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,319 And online slots with more themes than you'd see on a casino floor… 393 00:19:14,403 --> 00:19:16,822 [man] Never trust a woman with a grudge. 394 00:19:16,905 --> 00:19:20,242 [narrator] …and internationally betting on eSports, all kinds of them. 395 00:19:20,325 --> 00:19:22,286 [commentators overlapping] …biggest game of NBA2K… 396 00:19:22,369 --> 00:19:23,662 …bracket final of Secret versus… 397 00:19:23,745 --> 00:19:26,665 [narrator] The online gambling market had already been growing fast, 398 00:19:26,748 --> 00:19:31,128 and because of the impact of COVID-19, it's expected to grow even faster. 399 00:19:32,004 --> 00:19:34,923 And these games have new ways to keep us playing, 400 00:19:35,007 --> 00:19:38,010 like home pages tailored to your tastes, 401 00:19:38,093 --> 00:19:41,096 or apps that remind you of your past wins, 402 00:19:41,180 --> 00:19:43,515 asking if you want to bet again. 403 00:19:43,599 --> 00:19:46,685 The company that designed this feature explained, 404 00:19:46,768 --> 00:19:49,062 "With this emotional trigger, 405 00:19:49,146 --> 00:19:52,441 customers were more likely to stay active." 406 00:19:54,318 --> 00:19:56,820 Game design has the potential to hook us more, 407 00:19:56,904 --> 00:19:58,947 but we can also make it help. 408 00:19:59,031 --> 00:20:02,409 Some gambling machines in the UK are required to get a software update. 409 00:20:02,492 --> 00:20:04,494 So if someone plays for too long, 410 00:20:04,578 --> 00:20:07,623 it automatically triggers a 30-second cool-off period. 411 00:20:08,248 --> 00:20:11,293 But it can't stop us from going back. 412 00:20:12,252 --> 00:20:15,297 Humans gamble because life is a gamble. 413 00:20:15,380 --> 00:20:17,382 The future is always uncertain. 414 00:20:17,466 --> 00:20:19,176 [officer] Six foot, please, six foot. 415 00:20:19,259 --> 00:20:21,845 [narrator] {\an8}When casinos reopened in 2020… 416 00:20:21,929 --> 00:20:25,641 [reporter] As you can see, the line {\an8}continues here outside the front doors. 417 00:20:25,724 --> 00:20:27,309 {\an8}Came to get that money! 418 00:20:27,392 --> 00:20:29,186 {\an8}[laughing] 419 00:20:29,269 --> 00:20:31,897 [narrator] The feeling that we can beat the odds 420 00:20:31,980 --> 00:20:34,066 and that randomness has design, 421 00:20:34,149 --> 00:20:35,192 it runs deep. 422 00:20:35,901 --> 00:20:40,364 Our minds are-- have evolved to be very good at pattern recognition. 423 00:20:40,447 --> 00:20:43,200 If, uh, you're in the woods and some leaves move, 424 00:20:43,283 --> 00:20:44,660 you'll think there's a tiger. 425 00:20:44,743 --> 00:20:47,162 It's a useful skill to have if you live in the woods, 426 00:20:47,246 --> 00:20:48,789 but it's not a very useful skill 427 00:20:48,872 --> 00:20:51,541 if you think you're developing a system to beat roulette. 428 00:20:51,625 --> 00:20:53,877 [narrator] Because you can't {\an8}outsmart something 429 00:20:53,961 --> 00:20:56,213 {\an8}when there's nothing to figure out. 430 00:20:56,296 --> 00:20:58,298 {\an8}But it can be really fun to try. 431 00:20:59,299 --> 00:21:01,009 {\an8}There's always that rush of… 432 00:21:01,093 --> 00:21:04,763 the chance that something big could happen. 433 00:21:04,846 --> 00:21:06,848 [theme music plays]