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Even if we can
change human beings,

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in what direction
do we change them?

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Do we want to change them
this way or that way?

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This is an example
of the way in which

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technological advance impinges
on sociological necessity.

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What we need to ask
ourselves is,

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"Where does my individual
ability to control my life

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or to influence
the political process

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lie in relation to these
new forms of technology?"

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Government and politicians

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don'’t understand
what'’s happening.

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See, they don'’t even realized
this change is happening.

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It is very difficult,
not impossible,

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to predict what
the precise effects will be,

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and in--in many cases,
like with other technologies,

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we have to suck it and see.

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Who would have
predicted the internet?

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And I talk about this
matter as humanity 2.0

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'’cause in a sense, this is
kind of where we'’re heading,

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to some kind of
new--new normal, as it were,

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of what it is
to be a human being.

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It'’s not a problem

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that we should dismiss
or underestimate.

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It'’s staggering
in its proportions.

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Ignorance and disbelief
at the same time.

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People don'’t believe that
change is happening this fast.

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That'’s the problem.

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This is a stone

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formed naturally
in the Earth'’s crust

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over millions of years
through pressure and heat.

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It was discovered in
the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania.

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Dated around 2.5
million years BC,

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it is arguably one of the first
examples of technology.

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Stone tools were first adapted
for the use of cutting,

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scraping, or pounding
materials by Homo habilis,

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one of our earliest ancestors.

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Over one million years later,

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mankind made one of
the most significant

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of all technological
discoveries...

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Fire.

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The ability to control fire

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was a turning point
for human evolution.

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It kept us warm, allowed us
to see in the dark,

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and allowed us to cook food,

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which many scientists believe
was a huge contributor

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to the ascent of mind.

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Each age, each empire,
has brought with it

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the discovery and invention
of numerous technologies

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each in their own way
redesigning human life...

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...leading us to now...

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...modern-day society.

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We'’re now more advanced,
connected, knowledgeable,

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and resistant to disease
than ever before,

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and it is all due
to our ability

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to apply scientific knowledge
for practical purposes

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in a bid to maximize
efficiency.

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Just as the stone set us
on a path of transformation,

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the technologies
of the future

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may bring with them
a paradigm shift,

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changing two major features
of the human experience.

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Two things that have
defined our lives

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for as long as
we can remember.

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Two things that have always
been involuntary constants:

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trading our time
for sustenance

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and losing that time
through senescence.

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The Industrial Revolution
effectively freed man

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from being a beast of burden.

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The computer revolution
will similarly free him

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from dull, repetitive routine.

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The computer
revolution is, however,

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perhaps better compared
with the Copernican

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or the Darwinian Revolution,

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both of which greatly changed
man'’s idea of himself

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and the world
in which he lives.

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In the space of 60 years,
we have landed on the moon,

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seen the rise of
computing power,

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mobile phones,

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the explosion
of the internet,

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and we have sequenced
the human genome.

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We took man to
the moon and back

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with four kilobytes of memory.

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The phone in your pocket
is at least 250,000 times

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more powerful than that.

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We are ever-increasingly
doing more with less.

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One of the things
that has been born

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out of this
technological revolution

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is the ability
to replace human workers

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with more efficient machines.

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This is largely
due to the speed

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at which we are advancing our
technological capabilities.

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Information technology grows
in an exponential manner.

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It'’s not linear.

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And our intuition is linear.

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When we walked
through the savanna

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a thousand years ago,
we made linear predictions

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where that animal would be
and that worked fine.

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It'’s hardwired in our brains,

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but the pace of
exponential growth

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is really what describes
information technologies,

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and it'’s not just computation.

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There'’s a big difference
between linear

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and exponential growth.

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If I take 30 steps linearly,

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one, two, three, four,
five, I get to 30.

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If I take 30 steps
exponentially,

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two, four, eight, sixteen,
I get to a billion.

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It makes a huge difference.

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And that really describes
information technology.

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When I was a student at MIT,

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we all shared one computer,
it took up a whole building.

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The computer in
your cell phone today

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is a million times cheaper,
a million times smaller,

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a thousand times
more powerful.

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That'’s a billionfold increase
in capability per dollar

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that we'’ve actually
experienced

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since I was a student,

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and we'’re gonna do it again
in the next 25 years.

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Currently,
on an almost daily basis,

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new algorithms, programs,

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and feats in
mechanical engineering

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are getting closer and closer
to being a reliable

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and more cost-effective
alternative to a human worker.

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This process is
known as automation.

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This is not just about,

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you know, automation
where we expect it,

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which is in factories

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and among blue-collar
workers and so forth.

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It is coming
quite aggressively

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for people at much
higher skill levels,

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and that will only
grow in the future

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as we continue on
this exponential arc.

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This business that, you know,
not having to work very hard

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because machines are taking
care of things for you,

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I mean, you see this
also in the 19th century

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with the Industrial Revolution.

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And, in fact, I think
one of the problems

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with the Industrial Revolution,

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and this is where Marxism
got so much traction,

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was that machines
actually did render

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a lot of people
unemployed, okay?

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That already happened in
the 19th and 20th centuries.

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And it was only by
labor organizing itself

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that it was able
to kind of deal

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with the situation
intelligently

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because there was no
automatic, you might say,

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transition to something else.

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It was just, you know,
"We don'’t need you anymore.

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We have these more
efficient machines,

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and so now
we don'’t--you know,

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now you just have to find
work somewhere else."

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Automation clearly has been
happening for a long time,

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and it has,
you know, automated

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a lot of very laborious work
that we don'’t want to do,

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and that'’s gonna continue
to be the case in the future,

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but I do think that this time
is genuinely different.

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If we look at what'’s
happened historically,

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what we'’ve seen
is that automation

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has primarily been
a mechanical phenomenon,

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and the classic
example of that

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is, of course, agriculture.

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I'’m a farmer.

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Here'’s what mechanical
engineering has done

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for all of us who
work on the farms

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and for you, too.

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It used to be,
in the United States

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and in most
advanced countries,

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that most people
worked on farms.

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Now, almost no one
works on a farm.

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It'’s less than two percent.

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And, of course, as a result
of that, we'’re better off.

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We have, you know,
more comfortable jobs,

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food is cheaper,

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we have a much more
advanced society.

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The question is, "Can that
continue indefinitely?"

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And what we'’re
seeing this time

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is that things are
really quite different.

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If this keeps up,

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it won'’t be long before
machines will do everything.

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Nobody will have work.

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So as we move deeper
into the automated future,

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we will see different
stages take form.

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The first stage
that we'’re entering

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is the stage where
automated robots are working

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side by side with
people in factories.

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Some of those jobs
are slowly going away,

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but in the near future,
within two to three years,

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you'’re going to see
a huge percentage

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of those factory jobs
be replaced

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with automated systems
and automated robots.

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The next stage following
that is we could see

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up to a third
of jobs in America

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be replaced by 2025

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by robots
or automated systems.

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That'’s a huge
percentage of people

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that could be unemployed

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because of this
automated tsunami

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that'’s coming, basically.

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We have a colleague
here called Carl Frey

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who has put together
a list of jobs

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by their vulnerability

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to getting replaced
by automation,

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and the least vulnerable are
things like choreographers,

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managers, social workers.

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People who have people skills

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and who have creativity.

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One area that I look
a lot at is fast food.

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I mean, the fast food industry
is tremendously important

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in American economy.

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If you look at the years
since recovery

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from the Great Recession,

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the majority of jobs,
somewhere around 60 percent,

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have been low-wage
service sector jobs.

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A lot of those have been
in areas like fast food,

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and yet, to me,
it seems almost inevitable

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that, ultimately,
fast food is gonna automate.

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There'’s a company right
here in San Francisco

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called "Momentum Machines"
which is actually working on

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a machine to automate
hamburger production,

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and it can crank out

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00:11:01,540 --> 00:11:05,900
about 400 gourmet
hamburgers per hour,

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and they ultimately expect
to sort of roll that out

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not just in fast food
establishments,

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perhaps in convenience stores

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and maybe even
vending machines.

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It could be
all over the place.

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I can see manufacturing now
becoming completely automated.

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I can see, you know,
hundreds of millions

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of workers being
put out of jobs,

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That'’s almost certain
it'’s gonna happen.

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So you have lots of companies
right now that are automating

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their factories
and their warehouses.

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Amazon is a great example.

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They'’re using robots
to automate their systems.

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The robots actually
grab the products

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and bring the products
to the people

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who put those products
into the box.

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So there are still people

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within the factories
at Amazon,

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00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:52,740
but in the near future,
those jobs may go away as well.

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There is a company here
in Silicon Valley

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called "Industrial Perception,"

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and they built a robot
that can approach

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a stack of boxes that are
sort of stacked haphazardly

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in some nonstandard way

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00:12:05,740 --> 00:12:08,820
and visually, by looking at
that stack of boxes,

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00:12:08,900 --> 00:12:10,380
figure out how
to move those boxes.

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And they built a machine
that ultimately

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will be able to move
perhaps one box every second,

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and that compares with
about three seconds

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for a human worker
who'’s very industrious.

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Okay, and this machine,
you can imagine,

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will work continuously.

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It'’s never gonna get injured,

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00:12:26,260 --> 00:12:29,780
never file a workers'’
compensation claim,

255
00:12:29,860 --> 00:12:31,820
and, yet, it'’s moving
into an area

256
00:12:31,900 --> 00:12:34,140
that, up until now, at least,
we would have said

257
00:12:34,220 --> 00:12:37,540
is really something that
is exclusively the provid--

258
00:12:37,620 --> 00:12:39,100
province of the human worker.

259
00:12:39,180 --> 00:12:43,460
I mean, it'’s this ability
to look at something

260
00:12:43,540 --> 00:12:46,020
and then based on
what you see,

261
00:12:46,100 --> 00:12:47,220
manipulate your environment.

262
00:12:47,300 --> 00:12:49,100
It'’s sort of the confluence

263
00:12:49,180 --> 00:12:51,900
of visual perception
and dexterity.

264
00:12:55,500 --> 00:12:57,620
We'’ll see self-driving
cars on the road

265
00:12:57,700 --> 00:12:59,260
within 10 or 15 years.

266
00:12:59,340 --> 00:13:00,860
Fifteen years from now,
we'’ll be debating

267
00:13:00,940 --> 00:13:03,620
whether we should even allow
human beings to be on--

268
00:13:03,700 --> 00:13:05,220
be on the road at all.

269
00:13:05,300 --> 00:13:07,620
Tesla says that by next year,

270
00:13:07,700 --> 00:13:12,140
that, you know, their cars
will be 90 percent automated.

271
00:13:12,220 --> 00:13:13,940
Which means that
the jobs of taxi drivers,

272
00:13:14,020 --> 00:13:16,060
truck drivers, goes away.

273
00:13:16,140 --> 00:13:19,140
Suddenly, we don'’t need
to own cars anymore.

274
00:13:19,220 --> 00:13:22,340
Humanity isn'’t ready for such
a basic change such as that.

275
00:13:24,940 --> 00:13:26,620
Call center jobs,
voice recognition

276
00:13:26,700 --> 00:13:28,620
is pretty sophisticated
these days.

277
00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:32,780
And you can imagine
replacing many kinds of,

278
00:13:32,860 --> 00:13:34,620
you know,
helplines and things.

279
00:13:34,700 --> 00:13:37,180
There'’s a company called
"IPsoft" that has created

280
00:13:37,260 --> 00:13:40,020
an intelligent
software system,

281
00:13:40,100 --> 00:13:42,740
an automated system,
called "Amelia."

282
00:13:42,820 --> 00:13:45,620
She can not only understand
what you'’re saying to her,

283
00:13:45,700 --> 00:13:48,100
she understands the context
of what you'’re saying,

284
00:13:48,180 --> 00:13:50,380
and she can learn
from her mistakes.

285
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:52,540
This is a huge deal because
what we'’re going to see

286
00:13:52,620 --> 00:13:54,900
is all of the customer
service agent jobs,

287
00:13:54,980 --> 00:13:57,140
if she is successful,
if this software program,

288
00:13:57,220 --> 00:14:00,100
this automated software
program is successful,

289
00:14:00,180 --> 00:14:03,100
we could see all of
those jobs go away.

290
00:14:03,180 --> 00:14:05,100
These things tend
to go to marginal cost,

291
00:14:05,180 --> 00:14:08,740
and marginal cost is copying
software, which is nothing,

292
00:14:08,820 --> 00:14:10,660
and running it on a computer

293
00:14:10,740 --> 00:14:12,180
which will probably be
very cheap.

294
00:14:16,060 --> 00:14:19,980
Human doctors will be,
in some respect, pushed aside

295
00:14:20,060 --> 00:14:21,540
because machines
can do a better job

296
00:14:21,620 --> 00:14:23,300
of diagnosis than they can.

297
00:14:23,380 --> 00:14:25,180
Now will they have the empathy
that current doctors do?

298
00:14:25,260 --> 00:14:26,740
I don'’t know, but at least
they'’ll have the knowledge

299
00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:28,540
that our doctors do,
they'’ll be more advanced,

300
00:14:28,620 --> 00:14:30,260
so I can see this
option in healthcare.

301
00:14:30,340 --> 00:14:32,820
The one that is likely to be
the biggest growth area,

302
00:14:32,900 --> 00:14:36,060
from an economic standpoint,
is the android companions

303
00:14:36,140 --> 00:14:39,220
to help elderly people,
okay, because there'’s--

304
00:14:39,300 --> 00:14:41,740
you know, given the rise
in elderly people

305
00:14:41,820 --> 00:14:44,860
over the next 20,
30 years, that it'’s--

306
00:14:44,940 --> 00:14:46,740
and it'’s unlikely there are
gonna be enough people

307
00:14:46,820 --> 00:14:48,900
going into
the nursing profession

308
00:14:48,980 --> 00:14:51,220
to actually serve them,
especially if we'’re thinking

309
00:14:51,300 --> 00:14:54,340
in terms of home-based care.

310
00:14:54,420 --> 00:14:57,060
The robot surgeon, I think,
is something that will happen

311
00:14:57,140 --> 00:14:59,820
in the not-too-distant future

312
00:14:59,900 --> 00:15:04,060
because a lot of that is
to do with manual dexterity

313
00:15:04,140 --> 00:15:08,900
and having the expertise
to recognize--

314
00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:12,740
to understand what you'’re
manipulating as a surgeon.

315
00:15:12,820 --> 00:15:15,940
Terrific amount of expertise
for a human to accumulate,

316
00:15:16,020 --> 00:15:17,820
but I can imagine that
we would be able to build

317
00:15:17,900 --> 00:15:20,500
something that is
a specialized robot surgeon

318
00:15:20,580 --> 00:15:22,820
that can carry out
particular operations

319
00:15:22,900 --> 00:15:24,980
such as a prostate operation.

320
00:15:25,060 --> 00:15:26,660
That'’s one that people
are working on right now,

321
00:15:26,740 --> 00:15:28,220
and I think
they'’re nearly there

322
00:15:28,300 --> 00:15:29,460
of being able to produce

323
00:15:29,540 --> 00:15:31,580
a reliable robot surgeon
that can do that.

324
00:15:31,660 --> 00:15:33,420
You might not want to submit
yourself to this thing,

325
00:15:33,500 --> 00:15:35,460
you might think, but in fact,
I think we'’ll be able to make

326
00:15:35,540 --> 00:15:38,660
a very reliable robot surgeon
to do that sort of thing.

327
00:15:45,900 --> 00:15:47,420
I can see this
option in finance

328
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:49,420
because they'’re moving
to digital currencies.

329
00:15:49,500 --> 00:15:52,460
And--and we'’re now
moving to crowdfunding

330
00:15:52,540 --> 00:15:55,820
and crowdbanking
and all these other advances.

331
00:15:55,900 --> 00:15:58,020
One of my favorites
is investment bankers.

332
00:15:58,100 --> 00:16:01,900
Artificial intelligence
already does more

333
00:16:01,980 --> 00:16:04,780
stock market trades
today than any human being.

334
00:16:04,860 --> 00:16:08,260
Lots of decisions like
decisions about mortgages

335
00:16:08,340 --> 00:16:10,700
and insurance, already
those things have been,

336
00:16:10,780 --> 00:16:13,500
you know, largely
taken over by programs,

337
00:16:13,580 --> 00:16:16,140
and I think that kind of trend
is only gonna continue.

338
00:16:27,900 --> 00:16:30,380
Every time there'’s
a technological change,

339
00:16:30,460 --> 00:16:32,420
it will, unfortunately, put
a lot of people out of work.

340
00:16:32,500 --> 00:16:34,140
It happened with
the cotton gin.

341
00:16:34,220 --> 00:16:37,660
It'’s happened with every
single technological change.

342
00:16:37,740 --> 00:16:41,140
So, sure, technology
destroys jobs,

343
00:16:41,220 --> 00:16:42,700
but it creates new ones.

344
00:16:42,780 --> 00:16:45,580
Moving from the age of work
that we'’re in now

345
00:16:45,660 --> 00:16:49,740
into the abundant,
ubiquitous automation age,

346
00:16:49,820 --> 00:16:52,140
that bridge that
we have to cross

347
00:16:52,220 --> 00:16:54,820
is gonna be a very
interesting time period.

348
00:16:54,900 --> 00:16:57,180
I think in the very beginning
of that time period,

349
00:16:57,260 --> 00:17:01,060
you'’re going to see automation
start to replace jobs,

350
00:17:01,140 --> 00:17:04,460
but those jobs will transfer
into other forms of work.

351
00:17:04,540 --> 00:17:07,540
So, for example, instead
of working in a factory,

352
00:17:07,620 --> 00:17:10,580
you will learn to code
and you will code the robots

353
00:17:10,660 --> 00:17:12,180
that are working
in the factory.

354
00:17:12,260 --> 00:17:15,220
When I was a young man
and I went for careers advice,

355
00:17:15,300 --> 00:17:17,180
I don'’t know what they
would have made of me

356
00:17:17,260 --> 00:17:21,300
asking for a job
as a webmaster.

357
00:17:21,380 --> 00:17:24,020
It didn'’t exist, there
wasn'’t a web at that time.

358
00:17:24,100 --> 00:17:27,020
And, right now, we have
over 200,000 vacancies

359
00:17:27,100 --> 00:17:29,540
for people who can
analyze big data.

360
00:17:29,620 --> 00:17:31,620
And we really do need people

361
00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:33,460
and mechanisms
for analyzing it

362
00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:37,220
and getting the most
information from that data,

363
00:17:37,300 --> 00:17:40,020
and that problem is only
gonna increase in the future.

364
00:17:40,100 --> 00:17:42,500
And I do think that there'’s
gonna be a lot of employment

365
00:17:42,580 --> 00:17:44,020
moving in that direction.

366
00:17:48,980 --> 00:17:51,940
The history of our country
proves that new inventions

367
00:17:52,020 --> 00:17:55,900
create thousands of jobs
for every one they displace.

368
00:17:55,980 --> 00:17:59,780
So it wasn'’t long before your
grandfather had a better job

369
00:17:59,860 --> 00:18:01,940
at more pay for less work.

370
00:18:02,020 --> 00:18:03,540
We'’re always offered
this solution

371
00:18:03,620 --> 00:18:05,820
of still more education,
still more training.

372
00:18:05,900 --> 00:18:07,380
If people lose
their routine job,

373
00:18:07,460 --> 00:18:08,820
then let'’s send them
back to school.

374
00:18:08,900 --> 00:18:10,620
They'’ll pick up
some new skills,

375
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:11,980
they'’ll learn something new,
and then they'’ll be able

376
00:18:12,060 --> 00:18:14,660
to move into some
more rewarding career.

377
00:18:14,740 --> 00:18:16,780
That'’s not gonna operate
so well in the future

378
00:18:16,860 --> 00:18:18,180
where the machines are coming

379
00:18:18,260 --> 00:18:20,020
for those skilled
jobs as well.

380
00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:21,660
The fact is that machines
are really good at

381
00:18:21,740 --> 00:18:23,260
picking up skills
and doing all kinds

382
00:18:23,340 --> 00:18:25,340
of extraordinarily
complex things,

383
00:18:25,420 --> 00:18:26,740
so those jobs
aren'’t necessarily

384
00:18:26,820 --> 00:18:28,420
gonna be there either.

385
00:18:28,500 --> 00:18:31,180
And a second insight,
I think, is that historically,

386
00:18:31,260 --> 00:18:33,980
it'’s always been the case that
the vast majority of people

387
00:18:34,060 --> 00:18:35,860
have always done routine work.

388
00:18:35,940 --> 00:18:38,460
So even if people can
make that transition,

389
00:18:38,540 --> 00:18:40,300
if they can succeed
in going back to school

390
00:18:40,380 --> 00:18:42,620
and learning something new,
in percentage terms,

391
00:18:42,700 --> 00:18:44,620
those jobs don'’t constitute

392
00:18:44,700 --> 00:18:46,300
that much of the total
employment out there.

393
00:18:46,380 --> 00:18:48,060
I mean, most people are doing
these more routine things.

394
00:18:48,140 --> 00:18:50,260
So, you know, we'’re up
against a real problem

395
00:18:50,340 --> 00:18:53,020
that'’s probably gonna
require a political solution.

396
00:18:53,100 --> 00:18:57,620
It'’s probably going to
require direct redistribution.

397
00:18:57,700 --> 00:18:59,180
That'’s my take on it,

398
00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:02,500
and that'’s a staggering
political challenge,

399
00:19:02,580 --> 00:19:04,140
especially in
the United States.

400
00:19:04,220 --> 00:19:06,420
This would be fine
if we had generations

401
00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:10,100
to adapt to the change
so that the next generation

402
00:19:10,180 --> 00:19:11,380
could develop
a different lifestyle,

403
00:19:11,460 --> 00:19:12,900
different value system.

404
00:19:12,980 --> 00:19:14,820
The problem is that
all of this is happening

405
00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:15,780
within the same generation.

406
00:19:15,860 --> 00:19:17,940
Within a period of 15 years,

407
00:19:18,020 --> 00:19:21,260
we'’re gonna start wiping out
most of the jobs that we know.

408
00:19:21,340 --> 00:19:23,940
That'’s really what worries me.

409
00:19:24,020 --> 00:19:27,380
A term commonly used when
describing the trajectory

410
00:19:27,460 --> 00:19:30,540
of technological progress
and where it'’s leading us

411
00:19:30,620 --> 00:19:33,300
is the "technological
singularity."

412
00:19:33,380 --> 00:19:35,220
The term is
borrowed from physics

413
00:19:35,300 --> 00:19:39,140
to describe an event horizon
or a moment in space time

414
00:19:39,220 --> 00:19:41,180
that you cannot see beyond.

415
00:19:41,260 --> 00:19:43,340
We are currently
in the transistor era

416
00:19:43,420 --> 00:19:45,380
of information technology.

417
00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:50,020
In 1965, co-founder
of Intel, Gordon Moore,

418
00:19:50,100 --> 00:19:52,500
made the observation
that the processing power

419
00:19:52,580 --> 00:19:55,900
of computers doubles
every 18 months.

420
00:19:55,980 --> 00:19:58,420
The prediction that
this trend will continue

421
00:19:58,500 --> 00:20:00,860
is known as Moore'’s Law.

422
00:20:00,940 --> 00:20:02,140
When Intel created

423
00:20:02,220 --> 00:20:05,900
their first computer
processing unit in 1971,

424
00:20:05,980 --> 00:20:08,940
it has 2,300 transistors

425
00:20:09,020 --> 00:20:13,660
and had a processing speed
of 740 kilohertz.

426
00:20:13,740 --> 00:20:18,220
Today, a typical CPU has
over a billion transistors

427
00:20:18,300 --> 00:20:21,020
with an average speed
of two gigahertz.

428
00:20:21,100 --> 00:20:24,340
However, many predict
that by 2020,

429
00:20:24,420 --> 00:20:27,260
the miniaturization of
transistors and silicon chips

430
00:20:27,340 --> 00:20:29,140
will reach its limit,

431
00:20:29,220 --> 00:20:33,900
and Moore'’s Law will fizzle
out into a post-silicon era.

432
00:20:33,980 --> 00:20:35,980
Another way of
describing the term

433
00:20:36,060 --> 00:20:38,500
"technological singularity"

434
00:20:38,580 --> 00:20:40,820
is a time when
artificial intelligence

435
00:20:40,900 --> 00:20:44,500
surpasses human
intellectual capacity.

436
00:20:44,580 --> 00:20:46,140
But does this mean
that a computer

437
00:20:46,220 --> 00:20:48,020
can produce a new idea

438
00:20:48,100 --> 00:20:51,020
or make an original
contribution to knowledge?

439
00:20:51,100 --> 00:20:54,380
Artificial intelligence, AI,
is a longstanding project

440
00:20:54,460 --> 00:20:57,100
which has to do
with basically trying

441
00:20:57,180 --> 00:20:59,420
to use machines as a way
of trying to understand

442
00:20:59,500 --> 00:21:01,060
the nature of intelligence

443
00:21:01,140 --> 00:21:03,300
and, originally,
the idea was, in some sense,

444
00:21:03,380 --> 00:21:05,500
to manufacture
within machines

445
00:21:05,580 --> 00:21:07,980
something that could
simulate human intelligence.

446
00:21:08,060 --> 00:21:09,980
But I think now,
as the years have gone on,

447
00:21:10,060 --> 00:21:11,860
we now think in terms
of intelligence

448
00:21:11,940 --> 00:21:13,220
in a much more abstract way,

449
00:21:13,300 --> 00:21:16,980
so the ability to engage
in massive computations,

450
00:21:17,060 --> 00:21:18,620
right, where you can
end up making

451
00:21:18,700 --> 00:21:20,980
quite intelligent decisions
much more quickly

452
00:21:21,060 --> 00:21:22,460
than a human being can.

453
00:21:22,540 --> 00:21:24,300
So in this respect,
artificial intelligence

454
00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:26,220
in a sense is a,
you might say,

455
00:21:26,300 --> 00:21:28,300
as trying to go to the next
level of intelligence

456
00:21:28,380 --> 00:21:29,460
beyond the human.

457
00:21:31,260 --> 00:21:33,580
A proper AI could substitute

458
00:21:33,660 --> 00:21:38,060
for practically any human job
at some level of skill,

459
00:21:38,140 --> 00:21:40,780
so it'’s--it would be

460
00:21:40,860 --> 00:21:42,700
a completely
different situation.

461
00:21:42,780 --> 00:21:45,900
You can imagine any kind of
job could, in theory,

462
00:21:45,980 --> 00:21:50,580
be replaced by technology,
if you build human-level AI.

463
00:21:50,660 --> 00:21:54,620
Now that, of course, may
or may not be a good thing.

464
00:21:54,700 --> 00:21:57,060
You'’d be able to,
for example, make robots

465
00:21:57,140 --> 00:21:59,180
that could do
all kinds of jobs

466
00:21:59,260 --> 00:22:01,180
that humans don'’t
necessarily want to do.

467
00:22:01,260 --> 00:22:04,100
There are the so-called
three D'’s jobs

468
00:22:04,180 --> 00:22:06,740
that are dirty,
dangerous, or dull,

469
00:22:06,820 --> 00:22:08,700
which humans might
not want to do,

470
00:22:08,780 --> 00:22:11,500
and yet, where you
might actually want

471
00:22:11,580 --> 00:22:12,940
a human level of intelligence

472
00:22:13,020 --> 00:22:14,820
to do the job well
or do the job properly.

473
00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:16,660
These are things
which are achievable.

474
00:22:16,740 --> 00:22:18,180
-Yeah.
-This isn'’t something...

475
00:22:18,260 --> 00:22:19,660
I don'’t think
it'’s science fiction.

476
00:22:19,740 --> 00:22:21,380
I think this is
entirely feasible

477
00:22:21,460 --> 00:22:23,900
that we could
build a computer

478
00:22:23,980 --> 00:22:26,260
which is vastly superhuman

479
00:22:26,340 --> 00:22:28,740
which is conscious,
which has emotions,

480
00:22:28,820 --> 00:22:31,100
which is, essentially,
a new species

481
00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:34,740
of self-aware intelligence
and conscious in every way

482
00:22:34,820 --> 00:22:37,540
and has got emotions
the same as you and I do.

483
00:22:37,620 --> 00:22:39,100
I don'’t see any
fundamental limits

484
00:22:39,180 --> 00:22:41,460
on what we can do,
and we already know enough

485
00:22:41,540 --> 00:22:44,700
about basic science
to start doing that now.

486
00:22:44,780 --> 00:22:48,020
So some people are
concerned about,

487
00:22:48,100 --> 00:22:51,260
you know, possible
risks of building AI

488
00:22:51,340 --> 00:22:54,500
and building something
that is very, very powerful

489
00:22:54,580 --> 00:22:56,780
where there are
unintended consequences

490
00:22:56,860 --> 00:22:59,820
of the thing that you'’ve
built and where it might

491
00:22:59,900 --> 00:23:01,060
do things that
you can'’t predict

492
00:23:01,140 --> 00:23:03,140
that might be
extremely dangerous.

493
00:23:03,220 --> 00:23:04,860
So a so-called
"existential risk,"

494
00:23:04,940 --> 00:23:06,180
as some people call it.

495
00:23:06,260 --> 00:23:09,020
We are going to hand off
to our machines

496
00:23:09,100 --> 00:23:11,140
all the
multidimensional problems

497
00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:13,300
that we are incapable
of coping with.

498
00:23:13,380 --> 00:23:16,580
You and I can take
a problem with two or three

499
00:23:16,660 --> 00:23:19,300
or four or even seven inputs.

500
00:23:19,380 --> 00:23:20,420
But 300?

501
00:23:20,500 --> 00:23:22,820
A thousand, a million inputs?

502
00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:24,260
We'’re dead in the water.

503
00:23:24,340 --> 00:23:26,180
The machines can
cope with that.

504
00:23:26,260 --> 00:23:27,900
The advantage
that computers have

505
00:23:27,980 --> 00:23:30,660
is that they communicate
at gigabit speeds.

506
00:23:30,740 --> 00:23:32,300
They all network together.

507
00:23:32,380 --> 00:23:33,980
We talk in slow motion.

508
00:23:34,060 --> 00:23:37,980
So computers will achieve
this level of awareness

509
00:23:38,060 --> 00:23:39,940
probably in the next
20, 30, 40 years.

510
00:23:40,020 --> 00:23:43,260
It'’s not that if it'’s
good or that it'’s evil.

511
00:23:43,340 --> 00:23:44,740
It'’s we'’re
probably good enough

512
00:23:44,820 --> 00:23:47,300
to not program an evil AI.

513
00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:50,740
It'’s that if it'’s
lethally indifferent.

514
00:23:50,820 --> 00:23:52,460
If it has certain things

515
00:23:52,540 --> 00:23:55,940
that it'’s tasked
with accomplishing

516
00:23:56,020 --> 00:23:57,820
and humans are in the way.

517
00:23:57,900 --> 00:24:00,820
So there'’s this concern
that once we reach that moment

518
00:24:00,900 --> 00:24:03,100
where the computers
outperform us

519
00:24:03,180 --> 00:24:05,620
in ways that are
quite meaningful,

520
00:24:05,700 --> 00:24:08,900
that then they will somehow
be motivated to dispose of us

521
00:24:08,980 --> 00:24:11,580
or take over us
or something of this kind.

522
00:24:11,660 --> 00:24:13,100
I don'’t really believe that

523
00:24:13,180 --> 00:24:15,380
because these kinds
of developments,

524
00:24:15,460 --> 00:24:17,500
which probably are a little
farther off in the future

525
00:24:17,580 --> 00:24:19,700
than some of their
enthusiasts think,

526
00:24:19,780 --> 00:24:21,820
there will be time
for us to adapt,

527
00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:24,900
to come to terms with it,
to organize social systems

528
00:24:24,980 --> 00:24:26,780
that will enable us
to deal adequately

529
00:24:26,860 --> 00:24:28,820
with these new forms
of intelligence.

530
00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:30,580
So I don'’t thi--this is not
just gonna be something

531
00:24:30,660 --> 00:24:32,700
that'’s gonna happen
as a miracle tomorrow

532
00:24:32,780 --> 00:24:34,420
and then we'’ll be
taken by surprise.

533
00:24:34,500 --> 00:24:36,420
But I do think
the key thing here is

534
00:24:36,500 --> 00:24:39,860
that we need to treat
these futuristic things

535
00:24:39,940 --> 00:24:42,420
as not as far away
as people say they are.

536
00:24:42,500 --> 00:24:44,220
Just because they'’re
not likely to happen

537
00:24:44,300 --> 00:24:45,900
in 15 years, let'’s say,

538
00:24:45,980 --> 00:24:47,860
it doesn'’t mean they
won'’t happen in 50 years.

539
00:24:47,940 --> 00:24:51,740
It'’s gonna be of kind of
historical dimensions,

540
00:24:51,820 --> 00:24:53,860
and it'’s very hard
to predict, I think,

541
00:24:53,940 --> 00:24:57,940
whether it'’s gonna take us
in a utopian direction

542
00:24:58,020 --> 00:24:59,580
or in a dystopian direction

543
00:24:59,660 --> 00:25:02,180
or more likely
something in between,

544
00:25:02,260 --> 00:25:03,500
but just very different.

545
00:25:03,580 --> 00:25:05,340
Very hard to predict.

546
00:25:05,420 --> 00:25:07,820
You see, it'’s our job
to take raw materials,

547
00:25:07,900 --> 00:25:09,620
adapt them to useful forms,

548
00:25:09,700 --> 00:25:12,940
take natural forces,
harness them to do man'’s work.

549
00:25:13,020 --> 00:25:15,060
The automated systems
of the future

550
00:25:15,140 --> 00:25:18,500
are a natural process
of human innovation.

551
00:25:18,580 --> 00:25:22,780
It all comes back to the idea
of doing more with less.

552
00:25:22,860 --> 00:25:24,380
This process of innovation

553
00:25:24,460 --> 00:25:27,860
is driven not by
necessity, but desire,

554
00:25:27,940 --> 00:25:31,460
or to simply fill
a gap in the market.

555
00:25:31,540 --> 00:25:33,860
Farm owners didn'’t
really need to replace

556
00:25:33,940 --> 00:25:36,580
their workers with machines,
but they did so

557
00:25:36,660 --> 00:25:39,300
because they could
foresee the benefits.

558
00:25:39,380 --> 00:25:41,620
It'’s a natural
cycle of business.

559
00:25:41,700 --> 00:25:45,100
Doing more with less
leads to greater prosperity.

560
00:25:46,820 --> 00:25:48,420
The hope is that
we can adapt to this

561
00:25:48,500 --> 00:25:49,580
politically and socially.

562
00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:50,860
In order to do that,

563
00:25:50,940 --> 00:25:52,420
we have to begin
a conversation now.

564
00:25:52,500 --> 00:25:54,620
Remember that
we'’re up against

565
00:25:54,700 --> 00:25:57,100
an exponential
arc of progress.

566
00:25:57,180 --> 00:25:59,220
Things are gonna keep
moving faster and faster,

567
00:25:59,300 --> 00:26:01,460
so we need to start
talking about this now

568
00:26:01,540 --> 00:26:03,100
and we need to sort of
get the word out there

569
00:26:03,180 --> 00:26:04,380
so that people will realize

570
00:26:04,460 --> 00:26:06,740
that this problem
is coming at us,

571
00:26:06,820 --> 00:26:08,620
so that we can
begin to discuss

572
00:26:08,700 --> 00:26:10,420
viable political
solutions to this

573
00:26:10,500 --> 00:26:13,020
because, again,
I think it will require,

574
00:26:13,100 --> 00:26:14,620
ultimately,
a political choice.

575
00:26:14,700 --> 00:26:18,500
It'’s not something that
is gonna sort itself out

576
00:26:18,580 --> 00:26:21,420
by itself as a result
of the normal functioning

577
00:26:21,500 --> 00:26:23,100
of the market economy.

578
00:26:23,180 --> 00:26:25,060
It'’s something
that will require

579
00:26:25,140 --> 00:26:26,700
some sort of an intervention

580
00:26:26,780 --> 00:26:28,020
and, you know,
part of the problem is

581
00:26:28,100 --> 00:26:29,580
that in the United States,

582
00:26:29,660 --> 00:26:33,220
roughly half of the population
is very conservative

583
00:26:33,300 --> 00:26:35,420
and they really don'’t
believe in this idea

584
00:26:35,500 --> 00:26:37,900
of intervention
in the market.

585
00:26:37,980 --> 00:26:39,980
It'’s gonna be
a tough transition,

586
00:26:40,060 --> 00:26:41,980
and those that find
themselves out of jobs

587
00:26:42,060 --> 00:26:44,220
because a robot has taken it

588
00:26:44,300 --> 00:26:46,060
are gonna be
pretty pissed off.

589
00:26:46,140 --> 00:26:49,860
The effect of automation
on jobs and livelihood

590
00:26:49,940 --> 00:26:53,140
is going to be behind this
like the original Luddites.

591
00:26:53,220 --> 00:26:55,220
It wasn'’t--it wasn'’t
that they were against

592
00:26:55,300 --> 00:26:58,020
technological developments
in some ethereal sense.

593
00:26:58,100 --> 00:27:01,100
It was that this was
taking their damn jobs.

594
00:27:01,180 --> 00:27:03,820
I absolutely think there could
be a Neo-Luddite movement

595
00:27:03,900 --> 00:27:06,340
against the future,
against technology

596
00:27:06,420 --> 00:27:07,540
because they'’re gonna say,

597
00:27:07,620 --> 00:27:08,900
"Well, hey,
you'’re taking our jobs,

598
00:27:08,980 --> 00:27:10,340
you'’re taking
our livelihoods away.

599
00:27:10,420 --> 00:27:12,180
You'’re taking
everything away from us."

600
00:27:12,260 --> 00:27:14,340
But I think that'’s when
it'’s gonna be important

601
00:27:14,420 --> 00:27:17,420
that leaders and government
step in and say,

602
00:27:17,500 --> 00:27:18,740
"It may seem that way,

603
00:27:18,820 --> 00:27:20,580
but life is going to get
better for everyone."

604
00:27:20,660 --> 00:27:23,060
We'’re gonna have more time
to do things that we want,

605
00:27:23,140 --> 00:27:24,620
more vacations,
more passions.

606
00:27:24,700 --> 00:27:26,300
This is the modern world.

607
00:27:26,380 --> 00:27:29,420
We can create the utopia
that we'’ve always dreamt of.

608
00:27:29,500 --> 00:27:32,140
Why are we saying,
"My job'’s not safe,"

609
00:27:32,220 --> 00:27:35,460
or, "Automation'’s going
to steal my jobs"?

610
00:27:35,540 --> 00:27:37,180
These are the--these
are the phrases

611
00:27:37,260 --> 00:27:38,980
that keep getting
pushed out there.

612
00:27:39,060 --> 00:27:40,540
They'’re negative phrases,

613
00:27:40,620 --> 00:27:43,700
and instead, it seems
that we would look at this,

614
00:27:43,780 --> 00:27:45,260
especially if someone has
been working in a factory

615
00:27:45,340 --> 00:27:46,540
their whole life,

616
00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:48,620
that they would look at
that system and say,

617
00:27:48,700 --> 00:27:52,020
"Thank goodness that this is
starting to be automated."

618
00:27:52,100 --> 00:27:53,940
I don'’t want anyone
to have to crawl

619
00:27:54,020 --> 00:27:57,020
into a hole in the ground
and pull up coal.

620
00:27:57,100 --> 00:27:59,380
No human being should
have to go do that.

621
00:27:59,460 --> 00:28:01,940
If you make an awful
lot of computers

622
00:28:02,020 --> 00:28:03,980
and a lot of robots,
and the computers can make

623
00:28:04,060 --> 00:28:05,620
those robots
very sophisticated

624
00:28:05,700 --> 00:28:07,420
and do lots of
sophisticated jobs,

625
00:28:07,500 --> 00:28:10,780
you could eliminate most of
the high-value physical jobs

626
00:28:10,860 --> 00:28:13,500
and also most of the
high-value intellectual jobs.

627
00:28:13,580 --> 00:28:15,540
What you'’re left with,
then, are those jobs

628
00:28:15,620 --> 00:28:17,140
where you have to be
a human being,

629
00:28:17,220 --> 00:28:19,620
so I find it quite
paradoxical in some ways

630
00:28:19,700 --> 00:28:21,580
that the more advanced
the technology becomes,

631
00:28:21,660 --> 00:28:24,140
the more it forces us
to become humans.

632
00:28:24,220 --> 00:28:25,500
So in some ways,
it'’s very good.

633
00:28:25,580 --> 00:28:28,540
It forces us to explore
what is humanity about?

634
00:28:28,620 --> 00:28:29,700
What are the
fundamentally important

635
00:28:29,780 --> 00:28:31,140
things about being a human?

636
00:28:31,220 --> 00:28:33,300
It'’s not being able to,
you know, flip a burger

637
00:28:33,380 --> 00:28:36,460
or, you know, carve
something intricately.

638
00:28:36,540 --> 00:28:37,780
A computer or a robot

639
00:28:37,860 --> 00:28:39,940
could do that far better
than a human being.

640
00:28:40,020 --> 00:28:42,220
One thing I'’ve noticed, if
you talk to techno-optimists

641
00:28:42,300 --> 00:28:45,460
about the future of work
and how it'’s gonna unfold,

642
00:28:45,540 --> 00:28:47,900
very often they will
focus on this issue

643
00:28:47,980 --> 00:28:50,660
of how will we all be
fulfilled in the future?

644
00:28:50,740 --> 00:28:52,380
What will be
our purpose in life

645
00:28:52,460 --> 00:28:53,940
when we don'’t want to work?

646
00:28:54,020 --> 00:28:56,860
And, you know, you can
sort of posit this

647
00:28:56,940 --> 00:28:59,100
in terms of--there was
a guy named Maslow

648
00:28:59,180 --> 00:29:01,300
who came up with
a hierarchy of human needs,

649
00:29:01,380 --> 00:29:02,620
Maslow'’s pyramid.

650
00:29:02,700 --> 00:29:04,340
And at the base
of that pyramid

651
00:29:04,420 --> 00:29:07,420
are the foundational things
like food and shelter,

652
00:29:07,500 --> 00:29:09,060
and at the top of
that pyramid, of course,

653
00:29:09,140 --> 00:29:10,980
are all these intangible
things like, you know,

654
00:29:11,060 --> 00:29:12,420
a sense of purpose
in your life

655
00:29:12,500 --> 00:29:14,020
and fulfillment
and so forth.

656
00:29:14,100 --> 00:29:17,380
What you'’ll find among the most
techno-optimistic people

657
00:29:17,460 --> 00:29:18,940
is that they will
want to skip

658
00:29:19,020 --> 00:29:20,500
right over the base
of that pyramid

659
00:29:20,580 --> 00:29:22,820
and jump right to the top
and start talking about,

660
00:29:22,900 --> 00:29:24,620
"Oh, gosh, how are
we gonna," you know,

661
00:29:24,700 --> 00:29:25,860
"what'’s the meaning
of our life gonna be

662
00:29:25,940 --> 00:29:27,820
when we don'’t have to work?"

663
00:29:27,900 --> 00:29:31,100
But the reality is that
the base of that pyramid,

664
00:29:31,180 --> 00:29:33,340
food, shelter,
all the things that we need

665
00:29:33,420 --> 00:29:34,940
to have, you know,
a decent life,

666
00:29:35,020 --> 00:29:36,180
that'’s the elephant
in the room.

667
00:29:36,260 --> 00:29:39,380
That stuff costs real money.

668
00:29:39,460 --> 00:29:40,820
That stuff is gonna involve

669
00:29:40,900 --> 00:29:43,220
perhaps raising taxes
on a lot of the people

670
00:29:43,300 --> 00:29:44,700
that are doing
really well right now,

671
00:29:44,780 --> 00:29:46,020
and that'’s probably
part of the reason

672
00:29:46,100 --> 00:29:47,660
that they prefer
not to talk about it.

673
00:29:47,740 --> 00:29:50,180
So what do we do
with the 99 percent

674
00:29:50,260 --> 00:29:51,340
of the population
on this planet

675
00:29:51,420 --> 00:29:53,020
if they don'’t have jobs?

676
00:29:53,100 --> 00:29:55,780
The suggestion is
and the goal is

677
00:29:55,860 --> 00:29:57,500
to make this
an efficient system.

678
00:29:57,580 --> 00:29:59,940
You put automation
in the hands of everyone.

679
00:30:00,020 --> 00:30:01,980
In the near future,
we'’re going to see systems

680
00:30:02,060 --> 00:30:04,060
where we can
3D print our clothing,

681
00:30:04,140 --> 00:30:05,620
we can 3D print food.

682
00:30:05,700 --> 00:30:08,060
If you automate
these self-replicating

683
00:30:08,140 --> 00:30:11,180
industrial machines
to pull the raw materials

684
00:30:11,260 --> 00:30:12,980
and distribute
those raw materials

685
00:30:13,060 --> 00:30:15,340
to everyone who
has the capacity

686
00:30:15,420 --> 00:30:17,060
to 3D print their own house

687
00:30:17,140 --> 00:30:19,740
or 3D print
their own farm bot,

688
00:30:19,820 --> 00:30:23,940
you have literally
solved the equation

689
00:30:24,020 --> 00:30:26,460
of how do I automate my life

690
00:30:26,540 --> 00:30:28,780
and how do I automate
my basic necessities?

691
00:30:28,860 --> 00:30:30,580
If we had the political will

692
00:30:30,660 --> 00:30:32,420
to take all these
new technologies

693
00:30:32,500 --> 00:30:34,820
and the wealth
and abundance they create,

694
00:30:34,900 --> 00:30:37,300
and distribute these
across our society

695
00:30:37,380 --> 00:30:38,740
in the First World countries

696
00:30:38,820 --> 00:30:40,500
and also across
the whole world,

697
00:30:40,580 --> 00:30:42,420
then, of course, I mean,
the sky'’s the limit.

698
00:30:42,500 --> 00:30:44,260
We can solve all
kinds of problems.

699
00:30:44,340 --> 00:30:46,940
But we will have to have
the political will to do that,

700
00:30:47,020 --> 00:30:49,380
and I don'’t see a whole lot
of evidence for it right now.

701
00:30:49,460 --> 00:30:52,540
There really is enough
already for everybody,

702
00:30:52,620 --> 00:30:54,540
certainly to have
an adequate life,

703
00:30:54,620 --> 00:30:58,300
if not a life
of superabundant,

704
00:30:58,380 --> 00:31:01,220
so, you know, I don'’t think
that the introduction

705
00:31:01,300 --> 00:31:03,060
of more labor-saving devices

706
00:31:03,140 --> 00:31:06,660
or more is really gonna
make any difference in that.

707
00:31:06,740 --> 00:31:07,900
The reason there
are poor people

708
00:31:07,980 --> 00:31:09,380
is '’cause there'’s rich people.

709
00:31:15,860 --> 00:31:18,140
You'’re simultaneously
making a lot of people

710
00:31:18,220 --> 00:31:19,900
almost completely useless

711
00:31:19,980 --> 00:31:22,700
while generating
a lot more wealth

712
00:31:22,780 --> 00:31:24,700
and value than ever before.

713
00:31:24,780 --> 00:31:25,740
So I worry about this.

714
00:31:25,820 --> 00:31:27,020
I worry about the schism

715
00:31:27,100 --> 00:31:29,940
between the super rich
and the poor.

716
00:31:30,020 --> 00:31:33,460
The ultra rich,
if they'’re representative

717
00:31:33,540 --> 00:31:35,340
of some of the people
we'’ve seen in Silicon Valley,

718
00:31:35,420 --> 00:31:36,620
I really, really worry

719
00:31:36,700 --> 00:31:38,540
because I wonder if
they really have a soul.

720
00:31:38,620 --> 00:31:41,980
I really--I wonder if
they really have an awareness

721
00:31:42,060 --> 00:31:44,220
of how regular people feel

722
00:31:44,300 --> 00:31:46,500
and if they share
the values of humanity.

723
00:31:46,580 --> 00:31:49,020
It really bothers me
that you have this ultra rich

724
00:31:49,100 --> 00:31:51,860
that is out of touch with
regular people, with humanity.

725
00:31:51,940 --> 00:31:54,020
This is being filmed
right now in San Francisco,

726
00:31:54,100 --> 00:31:57,180
which is by all accounts
one of the wealthiest cities

727
00:31:57,260 --> 00:31:59,260
and most advanced
cities in the world,

728
00:31:59,340 --> 00:32:00,900
and it'’s pretty much
ground zero

729
00:32:00,980 --> 00:32:03,380
for this
technological revolution,

730
00:32:03,460 --> 00:32:04,700
and, yet, as I came here,

731
00:32:04,780 --> 00:32:07,500
I almost tripped over
homeless people

732
00:32:07,580 --> 00:32:08,980
sleeping on the sidewalk.

733
00:32:09,060 --> 00:32:11,700
That is the reality
of today'’s economy

734
00:32:11,780 --> 00:32:12,740
and today'’s society.

735
00:32:12,820 --> 00:32:14,380
In a very real sense,

736
00:32:14,460 --> 00:32:17,500
we already live in
the economy of abundance,

737
00:32:17,580 --> 00:32:20,020
and yet we have not
solved this problem.

738
00:32:20,100 --> 00:32:22,460
I think the future
for the four billion

739
00:32:22,540 --> 00:32:25,220
poor people in the world
is actually a very good one.

740
00:32:25,300 --> 00:32:27,820
We'’ve seen the amount of food
in the world, for example,

741
00:32:27,900 --> 00:32:30,020
has more than doubled
in the last 25 years.

742
00:32:30,100 --> 00:32:32,100
That'’s likely to continue.

743
00:32:32,180 --> 00:32:36,100
Worldwide, we'’re seeing
massive economic growth.

744
00:32:36,180 --> 00:32:39,380
That really means that people
in poor countries today

745
00:32:39,460 --> 00:32:41,580
will be much better off
in the future,

746
00:32:41,660 --> 00:32:43,580
so there will still be
some poor people,

747
00:32:43,660 --> 00:32:44,940
relatively speaking,

748
00:32:45,020 --> 00:32:47,060
but compared to
today'’s poor people,

749
00:32:47,140 --> 00:32:48,580
they'’ll be actually
quite well-off.

750
00:32:48,660 --> 00:32:51,540
I think this is
an amplifier for inequality.

751
00:32:51,620 --> 00:32:55,220
It'’s gonna make what we see
now much more amplified.

752
00:32:55,300 --> 00:32:56,620
The number of people
that are doing

753
00:32:56,700 --> 00:32:58,100
really well in the economy

754
00:32:58,180 --> 00:33:00,100
I think is likely
to continue to shrink.

755
00:33:00,180 --> 00:33:01,860
Those people
that are doing well

756
00:33:01,940 --> 00:33:05,660
will do extraordinarily well,
but for more and more people,

757
00:33:05,740 --> 00:33:07,300
they'’re simply gonna
find themselves

758
00:33:07,380 --> 00:33:09,380
in a position where they
don'’t have a lot to offer.

759
00:33:09,460 --> 00:33:11,100
They don'’t have
a marketable skill.

760
00:33:11,180 --> 00:33:14,260
They don'’t have a viable way
to really earn an income

761
00:33:14,340 --> 00:33:15,980
or, in particular,
middle-class income.

762
00:33:16,060 --> 00:33:17,420
We should value the fact

763
00:33:17,500 --> 00:33:19,620
that we can spend
more time doing human work

764
00:33:19,700 --> 00:33:23,180
and the robots will get on,
increase the economy.

765
00:33:23,260 --> 00:33:25,380
They'’ll be still taking
all the resources

766
00:33:25,460 --> 00:33:27,460
and converting them
into material goods

767
00:33:27,540 --> 00:33:30,420
at very low cost,
so the economy will expand,

768
00:33:30,500 --> 00:33:31,740
we'’ll be better off,

769
00:33:31,820 --> 00:33:33,380
and we can concentrate
on what matters.

770
00:33:33,460 --> 00:33:35,540
There'’s nothing
to worry about in there.

771
00:33:35,620 --> 00:33:37,540
A constant stream
of savings dollars

772
00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:41,300
must flow into big
and small business each year.

773
00:33:41,380 --> 00:33:43,940
These dollars help
to buy the land,

774
00:33:44,020 --> 00:33:48,340
the buildings,
the tools and equipment,

775
00:33:48,420 --> 00:33:50,340
and create new
job opportunities

776
00:33:50,420 --> 00:33:52,180
for our expanding population.

777
00:33:55,780 --> 00:33:57,220
We need consumers out there.

778
00:33:57,300 --> 00:33:59,860
We need people
who can actually buy

779
00:33:59,940 --> 00:34:02,420
the things that are
produced by the economy.

780
00:34:02,500 --> 00:34:04,220
If you look at the way
our economy works,

781
00:34:04,300 --> 00:34:06,820
ultimately, it'’s driven
by end consumption,

782
00:34:06,900 --> 00:34:09,620
and by that, I mean people
and to a limited extent,

783
00:34:09,700 --> 00:34:11,660
governments, who buy things
because they want them

784
00:34:11,740 --> 00:34:13,180
or they need them.

785
00:34:13,260 --> 00:34:14,700
You know, businesses
in our economy,

786
00:34:14,780 --> 00:34:16,700
they also buy
things, of course,

787
00:34:16,780 --> 00:34:18,940
but they do that in order
to produce something else,

788
00:34:19,020 --> 00:34:20,860
and one business may sell
to another business,

789
00:34:20,940 --> 00:34:23,220
but at the end of that,
at the end of that chain,

790
00:34:23,300 --> 00:34:26,180
there has to stand a consumer
or perhaps a government

791
00:34:26,260 --> 00:34:28,580
who buys that
product or service

792
00:34:28,660 --> 00:34:30,500
just because they want it
or they need it.

793
00:34:30,580 --> 00:34:31,940
So this is not the case

794
00:34:32,020 --> 00:34:33,780
that things can just
keep going like this

795
00:34:33,860 --> 00:34:36,420
and get more and more
unequal over time

796
00:34:36,500 --> 00:34:38,020
and everything
will still be fine.

797
00:34:38,100 --> 00:34:39,380
I think that it
won'’t be fine.

798
00:34:39,460 --> 00:34:42,420
It will actually have
an impact on our economy

799
00:34:42,500 --> 00:34:44,540
and on our economic growth.

800
00:34:44,620 --> 00:34:48,060
We need intelligent planning
because, you know,

801
00:34:48,140 --> 00:34:50,940
being unemployed is not
a positive thing in itself.

802
00:34:51,020 --> 00:34:52,500
There has to be some
kind of transition point

803
00:34:52,580 --> 00:34:54,340
to some other form
of life after that.

804
00:34:54,420 --> 00:34:56,100
And, again, at the moment,

805
00:34:56,180 --> 00:34:58,500
I really don'’t see enough
attention being paid to this,

806
00:34:58,580 --> 00:35:01,700
so we need to take this
future prospect seriously now.

807
00:35:03,740 --> 00:35:06,580
If we manage to adapt
to this expected wave

808
00:35:06,660 --> 00:35:10,820
of technological unemployment
both politically and socially,

809
00:35:10,900 --> 00:35:13,060
it'’s likely
to facilitate a time

810
00:35:13,140 --> 00:35:15,500
when work takes on
a different meaning

811
00:35:15,580 --> 00:35:17,500
and a new role in our lives.

812
00:35:19,100 --> 00:35:21,780
Ideas of how we should
approach our relationship

813
00:35:21,860 --> 00:35:25,060
with work have changed
throughout history.

814
00:35:25,140 --> 00:35:27,780
In ancient Greece,
Aristotle said,

815
00:35:27,860 --> 00:35:32,740
"A working paid job absorbs
and degrades the mind."

816
00:35:32,820 --> 00:35:35,340
I.E., if a person would
not willingly adopt

817
00:35:35,420 --> 00:35:36,940
their job for free,

818
00:35:37,020 --> 00:35:39,020
the argument can be made
that they have become

819
00:35:39,100 --> 00:35:41,380
absorbed and degraded by it,

820
00:35:41,460 --> 00:35:45,060
working purely out of
financial obligation.

821
00:35:45,140 --> 00:35:48,620
In 1844, Karl Marx
famously described

822
00:35:48,700 --> 00:35:52,420
the workers of society as
"alienated from their work

823
00:35:52,500 --> 00:35:56,020
and wholly saturated by it."

824
00:35:56,100 --> 00:35:58,060
He felt that most
work didn'’t allow

825
00:35:58,140 --> 00:36:00,540
an individual'’s
character to grow.

826
00:36:00,620 --> 00:36:02,940
He encouraged people
to find fulfillment

827
00:36:03,020 --> 00:36:05,260
and freedom in their work.

828
00:36:05,340 --> 00:36:08,380
During World War Two,
the ethos towards work

829
00:36:08,460 --> 00:36:10,380
was that it was
a patriotic duty

830
00:36:10,460 --> 00:36:13,580
in order to support
the war effort.

831
00:36:13,660 --> 00:36:16,940
To best understand our
current relationship with work

832
00:36:17,020 --> 00:36:19,980
and perhaps by extension
modern life itself,

833
00:36:20,060 --> 00:36:24,140
we can look to the writings
of a man called Guy Debord.

834
00:36:24,220 --> 00:36:29,100
Debord was a French Marxist
theorist and in 1967,

835
00:36:29,180 --> 00:36:32,140
he published a powerful
and influential critique

836
00:36:32,220 --> 00:36:35,540
on Western society entitled

837
00:36:35,620 --> 00:36:38,940
The Society of the Spectacle.

838
00:36:39,020 --> 00:36:41,780
He describes our workers
are ruled by commodities

839
00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:43,180
and that production

840
00:36:43,260 --> 00:36:46,380
is an inescapable
duty of the masses,

841
00:36:46,460 --> 00:36:48,620
such is the economic system

842
00:36:48,700 --> 00:36:51,620
that to work is to survive.

843
00:36:51,700 --> 00:36:53,980
"The capitalist economy,"
he says,

844
00:36:54,060 --> 00:36:57,980
"requires the vast majority
to take part as wage workers

845
00:36:58,060 --> 00:37:00,900
in the unending
pursuit of its ends.

846
00:37:00,980 --> 00:37:03,820
A requirement to which,
as everyone knows,

847
00:37:03,900 --> 00:37:06,740
one must either
submit or die."

848
00:37:06,820 --> 00:37:09,060
The assumption has
crept into our rhetoric

849
00:37:09,140 --> 00:37:10,500
and our understanding
that we live in

850
00:37:10,580 --> 00:37:12,460
a leisure society
to some extent.

851
00:37:12,540 --> 00:37:15,260
We have flexible working time.

852
00:37:15,340 --> 00:37:18,220
You hear the term a lot
"relative poverty"

853
00:37:18,300 --> 00:37:19,780
it'’s, again,
it'’s absolute poverty,

854
00:37:19,860 --> 00:37:22,740
and all these kinds of ideas
suggest that, in fact,

855
00:37:22,820 --> 00:37:24,740
we should feel pretty
pleased with ourselves.

856
00:37:24,820 --> 00:37:26,740
We should both feel
quite leisured

857
00:37:26,820 --> 00:37:29,060
and we should feel less
in bondage to work

858
00:37:29,140 --> 00:37:31,180
than perhaps somebody
in the 19th century

859
00:37:31,260 --> 00:37:34,140
who was kind of shackled
to a machine in a factory.

860
00:37:34,220 --> 00:37:37,340
But, in fact,
we'’re very unhappy.

861
00:37:37,420 --> 00:37:39,740
It'’s irrelevant
how much you work

862
00:37:39,820 --> 00:37:41,660
in actual terms anymore.

863
00:37:41,740 --> 00:37:43,620
The way in which
the spectacle operates

864
00:37:43,700 --> 00:37:47,780
is to make of leisure
itself an adjunct to work.

865
00:37:47,860 --> 00:37:50,780
In other words, the idea
of not working and working

866
00:37:50,860 --> 00:37:53,940
are in some sense
locked into an unholy

867
00:37:54,020 --> 00:37:56,460
and reciprocal relationship
with each other.

868
00:37:56,540 --> 00:37:58,420
You know, the fact
that you'’re not working

869
00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:00,020
is only because
you'’ve been working,

870
00:38:00,100 --> 00:38:01,300
and the fact that
you'’re working

871
00:38:01,380 --> 00:38:03,340
is only so that
you cannot work.

872
00:38:03,420 --> 00:38:06,580
In other words,
so engrafted is that rubric

873
00:38:06,660 --> 00:38:07,940
in the way that
we approach life

874
00:38:08,020 --> 00:38:10,500
that--that we can
never be rid of it.

875
00:38:10,580 --> 00:38:14,020
Debord also observed
that as technology advances,

876
00:38:14,100 --> 00:38:16,340
production becomes
more efficient.

877
00:38:16,420 --> 00:38:19,820
Accordingly, the workers'’
tasks invariably become

878
00:38:19,900 --> 00:38:22,460
more trivial and menial.

879
00:38:22,540 --> 00:38:25,820
It would seem that as human
labor becomes irrelevant,

880
00:38:25,900 --> 00:38:29,220
the harder it is
to find fulfilling work.

881
00:38:29,300 --> 00:38:32,180
The truth of the matter is
that most people already,

882
00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:35,340
in Britain,
are doing useless jobs

883
00:38:35,420 --> 00:38:38,460
and have been for
generations, actually.

884
00:38:38,540 --> 00:38:41,060
Most jobs in management
are completely useless.

885
00:38:41,140 --> 00:38:43,340
They basically consist
in the rearrangement

886
00:38:43,420 --> 00:38:45,380
of information into
different patterns

887
00:38:45,460 --> 00:38:47,620
that are meant to take on
the semblance of meaning

888
00:38:47,700 --> 00:38:49,780
in the bureaucratic context.

889
00:38:49,860 --> 00:38:53,700
So most work is, in fact,
a waste of time already,

890
00:38:53,780 --> 00:38:56,180
and I think people
understand that intuitively.

891
00:38:56,260 --> 00:38:59,020
When I go into companies,
I often ask the question,

892
00:38:59,100 --> 00:39:00,340
"Why are you employing people?

893
00:39:00,420 --> 00:39:01,780
You could get monkeys

894
00:39:01,860 --> 00:39:04,140
or you could get robots
to do this job."

895
00:39:04,220 --> 00:39:05,380
The people are not
allowed to think.

896
00:39:05,460 --> 00:39:07,100
They are processing.

897
00:39:07,180 --> 00:39:09,220
They'’re just like a machine.

898
00:39:09,300 --> 00:39:12,420
They'’re being so hemmed down,

899
00:39:12,500 --> 00:39:16,220
they operate with an algorithm
and they just do it.

900
00:39:16,300 --> 00:39:19,540
We all have the need to find
meaning in our lives,

901
00:39:19,620 --> 00:39:22,820
and it is our professions
that define us.

902
00:39:22,900 --> 00:39:25,100
To work is
to provide a service

903
00:39:25,180 --> 00:39:27,060
either to yourself
or for others,

904
00:39:27,140 --> 00:39:30,020
but most of us would like
our work to be purposeful

905
00:39:30,100 --> 00:39:33,540
and contributory
to society in some way.

906
00:39:33,620 --> 00:39:35,740
It is an uncomfortable truth

907
00:39:35,820 --> 00:39:38,500
that with our present
model of economics

908
00:39:38,580 --> 00:39:42,580
not everyone is able
to monetize their passions.

909
00:39:42,660 --> 00:39:45,500
If any of this were
to come to fruition,

910
00:39:45,580 --> 00:39:48,660
if we learned to make
automation work for us,

911
00:39:48,740 --> 00:39:53,500
the question remains,
"What do we do with our days?"

912
00:39:53,580 --> 00:39:55,140
There'’s a good and a bad.

913
00:39:55,220 --> 00:39:57,660
The good is that the cost
of everything drops.

914
00:39:57,740 --> 00:40:00,020
We can solve some of
the basic problems of humanity

915
00:40:00,100 --> 00:40:03,900
like disease,
hunger, lodging.

916
00:40:03,980 --> 00:40:07,940
We can look after all the
basic needs of human beings.

917
00:40:08,020 --> 00:40:12,260
The dark side is that
automation takes jobs away,

918
00:40:12,340 --> 00:40:15,140
and the question is,
"What do we do for a living?"

919
00:40:15,220 --> 00:40:17,900
Some of us will
seek enlightenment

920
00:40:17,980 --> 00:40:20,260
and rise and will keep
learning and growing,

921
00:40:20,340 --> 00:40:22,300
but the majority of people
don'’t care about those things.

922
00:40:22,380 --> 00:40:25,820
Majority of people just want
to do, you know, grunt work.

923
00:40:25,900 --> 00:40:29,140
They want to socialize with
people as they do at work.

924
00:40:29,220 --> 00:40:32,620
Sennett wrote in his book,
The Corrosion of Character,

925
00:40:32,700 --> 00:40:35,460
that in late capitalism,

926
00:40:35,540 --> 00:40:38,540
one of the great
kind of supports

927
00:40:38,620 --> 00:40:41,940
for human interaction
and for human meaning

928
00:40:42,020 --> 00:40:44,700
is the longevity
of social relations

929
00:40:44,780 --> 00:40:47,300
and the interactions
in working environments

930
00:40:47,380 --> 00:40:49,580
and that if that'’s taken away,

931
00:40:49,660 --> 00:40:53,140
if what'’s required is to be
continually responsive

932
00:40:53,220 --> 00:40:56,780
and changing in
a precarious world,

933
00:40:56,860 --> 00:41:00,260
then people no longer
find the fulfillment

934
00:41:00,340 --> 00:41:02,700
or the substance in
what they'’re doing.

935
00:41:02,780 --> 00:41:06,340
There is an underlying desire
for people to do things,

936
00:41:06,420 --> 00:41:07,740
you know, you spoke
about the idea

937
00:41:07,820 --> 00:41:10,140
that people want to be
engaged creatively.

938
00:41:10,220 --> 00:41:11,420
They want to be
engaged, you know,

939
00:41:11,500 --> 00:41:14,700
go back to basic
Marxist ideas of praxis

940
00:41:14,780 --> 00:41:16,220
and right back to John Locke.

941
00:41:16,300 --> 00:41:18,180
They want to be engaged
in what Locke thought of

942
00:41:18,260 --> 00:41:19,860
as primary acquisition,

943
00:41:19,940 --> 00:41:22,580
mixing their labor,
either their creative thinking

944
00:41:22,660 --> 00:41:23,940
or their physical labor even,

945
00:41:24,020 --> 00:41:26,460
with the world
in order to transform it.

946
00:41:26,540 --> 00:41:28,700
They want to do that,
and that'’s a very basic

947
00:41:28,780 --> 00:41:30,980
human instinct to do that.

948
00:41:31,060 --> 00:41:34,020
And the idea of
a leisured class, as it were,

949
00:41:34,100 --> 00:41:38,060
a class who is not involved
in a praxis with the world,

950
00:41:38,140 --> 00:41:40,140
but is simply involved
in a passive way

951
00:41:40,220 --> 00:41:43,860
as a recipient of things is
actually repugnant to people.

952
00:41:43,940 --> 00:41:48,500
They would sooner work for
the man in a meaningless job

953
00:41:48,580 --> 00:41:50,900
and construct
a false ideology

954
00:41:50,980 --> 00:41:53,060
of involvement and engagement

955
00:41:53,140 --> 00:41:55,180
than they would
actually sit on their ass.

956
00:41:55,260 --> 00:41:56,780
We can'’t get away
from the fact that--

957
00:41:56,860 --> 00:41:59,460
that people work
because they have to.

958
00:41:59,540 --> 00:42:02,380
That'’s, you know, the primary
motivation for most people,

959
00:42:02,460 --> 00:42:03,980
that if you don'’t work,

960
00:42:04,060 --> 00:42:06,180
you'’re gonna be living
on the street, okay?

961
00:42:06,260 --> 00:42:08,500
Once we--if we ever
move into a future

962
00:42:08,580 --> 00:42:09,980
where that'’s not the case

963
00:42:10,060 --> 00:42:11,260
and people don'’t have
to worry about that,

964
00:42:11,340 --> 00:42:12,500
then we can begin to take on

965
00:42:12,580 --> 00:42:14,540
these more
philosophical questions

966
00:42:14,620 --> 00:42:18,500
of--of, you know, but we'’re
not at that point yet.

967
00:42:18,580 --> 00:42:22,260
We can'’t pretend that
we are living in an age

968
00:42:22,340 --> 00:42:27,100
where that necessity
for an income doesn'’t exist.

969
00:42:27,180 --> 00:42:31,260
Douglas Rushkoff
stated in 2009,

970
00:42:31,340 --> 00:42:34,820
"We all want paychecks
or at least money.

971
00:42:34,900 --> 00:42:37,620
We want food,
shelter, clothing,

972
00:42:37,700 --> 00:42:40,420
and all the things
that money buys us.

973
00:42:40,500 --> 00:42:43,940
But do we all
really want jobs?"

974
00:42:44,020 --> 00:42:47,660
According to the UN Food
and Agriculture Organization,

975
00:42:47,740 --> 00:42:49,140
there is enough food produced

976
00:42:49,220 --> 00:42:50,660
to provide everyone
in the world

977
00:42:50,740 --> 00:42:55,620
with 2,720 kilocalories
per person per day.

978
00:43:14,020 --> 00:43:16,260
At this stage,
it'’s difficult to think of

979
00:43:16,340 --> 00:43:18,660
other possible ways of life.

980
00:43:18,740 --> 00:43:20,740
The need to earn a living
has been a part

981
00:43:20,820 --> 00:43:23,180
of every cultural
narrative in history.

982
00:43:23,260 --> 00:43:26,300
It'’s a precondition
of human life.

983
00:43:26,380 --> 00:43:28,780
The challenge facing
the future of work

984
00:43:28,860 --> 00:43:31,820
is politically unclear.

985
00:43:31,900 --> 00:43:33,660
It is likely to require

986
00:43:33,740 --> 00:43:36,460
not only a
redistribution of wealth,

987
00:43:36,540 --> 00:43:39,860
but a redistribution
of the workload.

988
00:43:39,940 --> 00:43:43,340
But will working less
mean living more?

989
00:43:45,060 --> 00:43:48,220
And is our fear of
becoming irrelevant

990
00:43:48,300 --> 00:43:51,460
greater than
our fear of death?

991
00:44:24,940 --> 00:44:28,660
The process of physical aging
is known as senescence,

992
00:44:28,740 --> 00:44:30,980
and none of us
are spared from it.

993
00:44:31,060 --> 00:44:35,180
It remains to this day
an evolutionary enigma.

994
00:44:35,260 --> 00:44:37,300
Our cells are programmed to wane

995
00:44:37,380 --> 00:44:40,820
and our entire bodies
are fated to become frail.

996
00:44:40,900 --> 00:44:43,340
It was seen that the laws
of nature would prefer it

997
00:44:43,420 --> 00:44:45,220
if we dwindle and die.

998
00:44:48,900 --> 00:44:51,140
Negligible senescence, however,

999
00:44:51,220 --> 00:44:54,220
is the lack
of symptoms of aging.

1000
00:44:54,300 --> 00:44:58,420
Negligibly senescent organisms
include certain species

1001
00:44:58,500 --> 00:45:01,060
of sturgeon, giant tortoise,

1002
00:45:01,140 --> 00:45:05,860
flatworm, clam, and tardigrade.

1003
00:45:05,940 --> 00:45:09,780
One species of jellyfish
called turritopsis dohrnii

1004
00:45:09,860 --> 00:45:13,540
has even been observed
to be biologically immortal.

1005
00:45:13,620 --> 00:45:17,180
It has the capability
to reverse its biotic cycle

1006
00:45:17,260 --> 00:45:19,100
and revert back
to the polyp stage

1007
00:45:19,180 --> 00:45:21,580
at any point in its development.

1008
00:45:21,660 --> 00:45:24,380
There is only one thing
wrong with dying,

1009
00:45:24,460 --> 00:45:27,180
and that'’s doing it
when you don'’t want to.

1010
00:45:27,260 --> 00:45:29,100
Doing it when you do
want to is not a problem.

1011
00:45:29,180 --> 00:45:30,820
Now if you put that bargain
to anybody,

1012
00:45:30,900 --> 00:45:33,060
"Look, this is the deal:

1013
00:45:33,140 --> 00:45:35,140
You will die, but only
when you want to."

1014
00:45:35,220 --> 00:45:36,860
Who would not take that bargain?

1015
00:45:36,940 --> 00:45:41,100
In 2014, a team
of scientists at Harvard

1016
00:45:41,180 --> 00:45:43,580
were able to effectively
reverse the age

1017
00:45:43,660 --> 00:45:45,740
of an older mouse by treating it

1018
00:45:45,820 --> 00:45:47,700
with the blood
of a younger mouse

1019
00:45:47,780 --> 00:45:50,700
through a process
called parabiosis.

1020
00:45:51,780 --> 00:45:53,140
For the first time in history

1021
00:45:53,220 --> 00:45:55,460
it is deemed
scientifically possible

1022
00:45:55,540 --> 00:45:58,260
to gain control
over the aging process.

1023
00:46:06,380 --> 00:46:08,820
Ultimately, when people
get the hang of the idea

1024
00:46:08,900 --> 00:46:10,860
that aging is a medical problem

1025
00:46:10,940 --> 00:46:13,180
and that everybody'’s got it,

1026
00:46:13,260 --> 00:46:16,620
then it'’s not going to be
the way it is today.

1027
00:46:22,020 --> 00:46:25,580
He thinks it'’s possible
that people will extend--

1028
00:46:25,660 --> 00:46:29,060
be able to extend their lifespan
by considerable amounts.

1029
00:46:29,140 --> 00:46:30,460
I think he'’s on record as saying

1030
00:46:30,540 --> 00:46:33,300
the first 1,000-year-old person
is already alive.

1031
00:46:33,380 --> 00:46:35,540
It'’s highly likely, in my view,

1032
00:46:35,620 --> 00:46:38,340
that people born today
or born 10 years ago

1033
00:46:38,420 --> 00:46:40,940
will actually be able to live

1034
00:46:41,020 --> 00:46:42,940
as long as they like,
so to speak,

1035
00:46:43,020 --> 00:46:47,900
without any risk of death
from the ill health of old age.

1036
00:46:47,980 --> 00:46:53,300
The way to apply comprehensive
maintenance to aging

1037
00:46:53,380 --> 00:46:54,980
is a divide
and conquer approach.

1038
00:46:55,060 --> 00:46:56,620
It is not a magic bullet.

1039
00:46:56,700 --> 00:46:58,500
It is not some single thing
that we can do,

1040
00:46:58,580 --> 00:47:01,300
let alone a single thing
that we could do just once.

1041
00:47:01,380 --> 00:47:04,420
Aging is
the lifelong accumulation

1042
00:47:04,500 --> 00:47:06,380
of damage to the body,

1043
00:47:06,460 --> 00:47:09,340
and that damage occurs
as an intrinsic,

1044
00:47:09,420 --> 00:47:11,300
unavoidable side effect

1045
00:47:11,380 --> 00:47:13,740
of the way the body
normally works.

1046
00:47:13,820 --> 00:47:15,260
Even though there
are many, many,

1047
00:47:15,340 --> 00:47:17,820
many different types
of damage at the molecular level

1048
00:47:17,900 --> 00:47:21,540
and the cellular level,
they can all be classified

1049
00:47:21,620 --> 00:47:23,820
into a very manageable
number of categories,

1050
00:47:23,900 --> 00:47:25,500
just seven major categories.

1051
00:47:25,580 --> 00:47:28,220
So now the bottom line,
what do we do about it?

1052
00:47:28,300 --> 00:47:31,460
How do we actually implement
the maintenance approach?

1053
00:47:31,540 --> 00:47:33,380
There are four
fundamental paradigms,

1054
00:47:33,460 --> 00:47:34,980
they all begin with "R."

1055
00:47:35,060 --> 00:47:36,460
They are called
replacement, removal,

1056
00:47:36,540 --> 00:47:38,100
repair, and reinforcement.

1057
00:47:38,180 --> 00:47:40,860
We'’ve got particular ways
to do all these things.

1058
00:47:40,940 --> 00:47:43,860
Sometimes replacement,
sometimes simply elimination

1059
00:47:43,940 --> 00:47:47,780
of the superfluous material,
the garbage that'’s accumulated.

1060
00:47:47,860 --> 00:47:51,060
Sometimes repair
of the material.

1061
00:47:51,140 --> 00:47:53,300
Occasionally, in a couple
of cases, reinforcement--

1062
00:47:53,380 --> 00:47:55,660
that means making
the cell robust

1063
00:47:55,740 --> 00:47:58,020
so that the damage,
which would normally have caused

1064
00:47:58,100 --> 00:48:00,340
the pathology
no longer does that.

1065
00:48:00,420 --> 00:48:03,340
I wanna talk about one thing
that we'’re doing in our lab,

1066
00:48:03,420 --> 00:48:05,500
which involved the number one
cause of death

1067
00:48:05,580 --> 00:48:07,620
in the western world,
cardiovascular disease

1068
00:48:07,700 --> 00:48:09,220
causes heart attacks
and strokes.

1069
00:48:09,300 --> 00:48:11,900
It all begins with these things
called foam cells,

1070
00:48:11,980 --> 00:48:14,660
which are originally
white blood cells.

1071
00:48:14,740 --> 00:48:18,300
They become poisoned
by toxins in the bloodstream.

1072
00:48:18,380 --> 00:48:21,020
The main toxin that'’s
responsible is known--

1073
00:48:21,100 --> 00:48:23,820
it'’s called 7-ketocholesterol,
that'’s this thing,

1074
00:48:23,900 --> 00:48:26,740
and we found some bacteria
that could eat it.

1075
00:48:26,820 --> 00:48:28,940
We then found out
how they eat it,

1076
00:48:29,020 --> 00:48:31,780
we found out the enzymes
that they use to break it down,

1077
00:48:31,860 --> 00:48:34,100
and we found out
how to modify those enzymes

1078
00:48:34,180 --> 00:48:36,380
so that they can go
into human cells,

1079
00:48:36,460 --> 00:48:39,380
go to the right place
in the cell that they'’re needed,

1080
00:48:39,460 --> 00:48:41,020
which is called the lysosome,

1081
00:48:41,100 --> 00:48:45,060
and actually do their job there,
and it actually works.

1082
00:48:45,140 --> 00:48:48,260
Cells are protected
from this toxic substance--

1083
00:48:48,340 --> 00:48:50,020
that'’s what these graphs
are showing.

1084
00:48:50,100 --> 00:48:52,220
So this is pretty good news.

1085
00:48:52,300 --> 00:48:54,860
The damage that accumulates
that eventually causes

1086
00:48:54,940 --> 00:48:57,780
the diseases
and disabilities of old age

1087
00:48:57,860 --> 00:49:00,180
is initially harmless.

1088
00:49:00,260 --> 00:49:03,340
The body is set up to tolerate
a certain amount of it.

1089
00:49:03,420 --> 00:49:05,820
That'’s critical,
because while we damage it

1090
00:49:05,900 --> 00:49:08,620
at that sub-pathological level,

1091
00:49:08,700 --> 00:49:10,700
it means that
it'’s not participating

1092
00:49:10,780 --> 00:49:12,500
in metabolism, so to speak.

1093
00:49:12,580 --> 00:49:15,540
It'’s not actually interacting
with the way the body works.

1094
00:49:15,620 --> 00:49:17,860
So medicines
that target that damage

1095
00:49:17,940 --> 00:49:20,220
are much, much less likely

1096
00:49:20,300 --> 00:49:23,020
to have unacceptable
side effects

1097
00:49:23,100 --> 00:49:25,860
than medicines that try
to manipulate the body

1098
00:49:25,940 --> 00:49:27,660
so as to stop the damage
from being created

1099
00:49:27,740 --> 00:49:28,820
in the first place.

1100
00:49:36,700 --> 00:49:42,340
It'’s unlikely, in fact,
by working on longevity per se,

1101
00:49:42,420 --> 00:49:44,140
that we will crack it.

1102
00:49:44,220 --> 00:49:47,180
It'’s going to be--
it seems to me more probable

1103
00:49:47,260 --> 00:49:51,460
that we will crack longevity
simply by getting rid of,

1104
00:49:51,540 --> 00:49:54,820
sequentially,
the prime causes of death.

1105
00:49:54,900 --> 00:49:59,660
I hear people talk about
living hundreds of years.

1106
00:49:59,740 --> 00:50:00,860
Inside, I'’m like, yeah, right,

1107
00:50:00,940 --> 00:50:03,580
I mean, because
if you study the brain,

1108
00:50:03,660 --> 00:50:05,860
the dead end is the brain.

1109
00:50:05,940 --> 00:50:07,260
We all start developing

1110
00:50:07,340 --> 00:50:09,380
Alzheimer'’s pathology
at 40 years old.

1111
00:50:09,460 --> 00:50:11,540
It'’s not a matter of whether
you get Alzheimer'’s,

1112
00:50:11,620 --> 00:50:12,580
it'’s when.

1113
00:50:13,700 --> 00:50:18,260
It'’s when, and genetically,

1114
00:50:18,340 --> 00:50:20,300
we all have some predisposition

1115
00:50:20,380 --> 00:50:22,620
to when we'’re gonna
get this disease.

1116
00:50:22,700 --> 00:50:24,300
It'’s part of the program.

1117
00:50:24,380 --> 00:50:26,500
Let'’s fix that part
of the program

1118
00:50:26,580 --> 00:50:28,660
so we can live
past 90 years old

1119
00:50:28,740 --> 00:50:31,020
with an intact, working brain

1120
00:50:31,100 --> 00:50:34,380
to continue
the evolution of our mind.

1121
00:50:34,460 --> 00:50:39,540
That is number one in my book,
because here'’s a fact:

1122
00:50:39,620 --> 00:50:41,860
Life span'’s almost 80
right now on average.

1123
00:50:41,940 --> 00:50:45,540
By 85, half of people
will have Alzheimer'’s.

1124
00:50:45,620 --> 00:50:47,340
Do the math.

1125
00:50:47,420 --> 00:50:48,620
Seventy-four million
Baby Boomers

1126
00:50:48,700 --> 00:50:50,020
headed toward risk age.

1127
00:50:50,100 --> 00:50:52,500
Eighty-five, 50 percent
have Alzheimer'’s,

1128
00:50:52,580 --> 00:50:54,060
current life span'’s 80.

1129
00:50:54,140 --> 00:50:55,740
They'’re gonna be 85 pretty soon.

1130
00:50:55,820 --> 00:50:58,740
Half our population at 85'’s
gonna have this disease.

1131
00:50:58,820 --> 00:51:00,420
And then keep going
up to 90 and 100,

1132
00:51:00,500 --> 00:51:01,740
and it gets even worse.

1133
00:51:01,820 --> 00:51:03,820
This is enemy number one.

1134
00:51:03,900 --> 00:51:07,940
It'’s interesting,
just this week

1135
00:51:08,020 --> 00:51:11,380
it was discovered
that an Egyptian mummy

1136
00:51:11,460 --> 00:51:14,140
had died of cancer,
so even way back in those times,

1137
00:51:14,220 --> 00:51:15,660
cancer was around.

1138
00:51:15,740 --> 00:51:18,660
What seems to have happened is,
as we have lived longer,

1139
00:51:18,740 --> 00:51:21,740
the number of diseases
that pop up to kill us

1140
00:51:21,820 --> 00:51:24,060
starts to increase,
and the reality is

1141
00:51:24,140 --> 00:51:27,020
I think this is a sort
of whack-a-mole situation

1142
00:51:27,100 --> 00:51:30,700
as we beat cancer to death
and it disappears,

1143
00:51:30,780 --> 00:51:31,980
something else will pop up.

1144
00:51:32,060 --> 00:51:33,860
Cancer is a specific disease,

1145
00:51:33,940 --> 00:51:35,940
and every cancer
is a specific gene involved

1146
00:51:36,020 --> 00:51:37,540
together with lifestyle.

1147
00:51:37,620 --> 00:51:41,100
Alzheimer'’s, specific disease,
specific genetics.

1148
00:51:41,180 --> 00:51:44,020
I can go on and on--
diabetes, heart disease.

1149
00:51:44,100 --> 00:51:48,020
These are diseases,
and as you get older,

1150
00:51:48,100 --> 00:51:51,220
your susceptibility
to these diseases increases,

1151
00:51:51,300 --> 00:51:53,140
and your genetics will determine

1152
00:51:53,220 --> 00:51:55,740
whether you get them
and when you get them

1153
00:51:55,820 --> 00:51:57,020
given your lifespan.

1154
00:51:57,100 --> 00:51:58,660
That'’s not aging,

1155
00:51:58,740 --> 00:52:00,940
that'’s just living long enough
to be susceptible,

1156
00:52:01,020 --> 00:52:05,020
so we may very well eradicate,
in our fantasy world,

1157
00:52:05,100 --> 00:52:07,980
all the cancers and strokes
and heart disease

1158
00:52:08,060 --> 00:52:10,900
and diabetes and Alzheimer'’s
we get right now

1159
00:52:10,980 --> 00:52:14,060
by 80 or 90 years old,
and then what'’s gonna happen?

1160
00:52:14,140 --> 00:52:17,020
You live out to 110,
and guess what'’s gonna happen,

1161
00:52:17,100 --> 00:52:18,860
new, other genetic variants

1162
00:52:18,940 --> 00:52:20,860
suddenly rear
their ugly heads and say,

1163
00:52:20,940 --> 00:52:23,380
"Now we'’re gonna affect
whether you live to 110

1164
00:52:23,460 --> 00:52:25,180
without Alzheimer'’s
and heart disease

1165
00:52:25,260 --> 00:52:26,620
and cancer and diabetes."

1166
00:52:26,700 --> 00:52:28,260
And it'’ll go on
and go on and go on.

1167
00:52:30,220 --> 00:52:32,580
There will undoubtedly
be enormous challenges

1168
00:52:32,660 --> 00:52:36,420
concerning the biological
approach to longevity.

1169
00:52:36,500 --> 00:52:39,460
There could, however,
be an alternative route

1170
00:52:39,540 --> 00:52:41,340
to extreme longevity.

1171
00:52:42,740 --> 00:52:44,380
When people are
worried about death,

1172
00:52:44,460 --> 00:52:45,940
I guess the issue
is what is it

1173
00:52:46,020 --> 00:52:49,460
that they would like
to have stay alive, okay?

1174
00:52:49,540 --> 00:52:53,100
And I think that'’s often
very unclear what the answer is,

1175
00:52:53,180 --> 00:52:55,900
because if you look at somebody
like Ray Kurzweil, for example,

1176
00:52:55,980 --> 00:52:57,660
with his promises
of the singularity

1177
00:52:57,740 --> 00:52:59,420
and our merging
with machine intelligence

1178
00:52:59,500 --> 00:53:01,220
and then being able
to kind of have

1179
00:53:01,300 --> 00:53:02,700
this kind of
infinite consciousness

1180
00:53:02,780 --> 00:53:05,660
projected outward
into the Cosmos.

1181
00:53:05,740 --> 00:53:07,180
I don'’t think he'’s
imaging a human body

1182
00:53:07,260 --> 00:53:10,020
living forever, okay?

1183
00:53:10,100 --> 00:53:13,260
And if that'’s what we'’re
talking about is immortality,

1184
00:53:13,340 --> 00:53:15,500
what I kind of think
Kurzweil is talking about,

1185
00:53:15,580 --> 00:53:17,180
then I can see it.

1186
00:53:17,260 --> 00:53:20,740
I mean, I could see at least
as something to work toward.

1187
00:53:20,820 --> 00:53:24,660
In 2005, Google'’s
Director of Engineering,

1188
00:53:24,740 --> 00:53:27,060
Ray Kurzweil,
published a book

1189
00:53:27,140 --> 00:53:29,820
entitled
The Singularity is Near:

1190
00:53:29,900 --> 00:53:32,940
When Humans Transcend Biology.

1191
00:53:33,020 --> 00:53:36,140
He predicts that by 2045,

1192
00:53:36,220 --> 00:53:38,460
it'’ll be possible
to upload our minds

1193
00:53:38,540 --> 00:53:41,420
into a computer,
effectively allowing us

1194
00:53:41,500 --> 00:53:43,420
to live indefinitely.

1195
00:53:57,780 --> 00:54:00,180
When people think
of death at this point,

1196
00:54:00,260 --> 00:54:02,260
they think of a body
going into a coffin,

1197
00:54:02,340 --> 00:54:04,540
and the coffin
going into the ground.

1198
00:54:04,620 --> 00:54:08,540
When in fact that age
of death is dying.

1199
00:54:08,620 --> 00:54:11,220
We are ending that stage.

1200
00:54:11,300 --> 00:54:12,820
We'’re entering a new stage

1201
00:54:12,900 --> 00:54:15,020
where we could
possibly upload consciousness

1202
00:54:15,100 --> 00:54:16,820
into a silicone substrate.

1203
00:54:16,900 --> 00:54:18,980
You know, a lot of these
science fiction ideas

1204
00:54:19,060 --> 00:54:21,700
from decades ago
are becoming real

1205
00:54:21,780 --> 00:54:24,060
and already people are
spending millions of pounds

1206
00:54:24,140 --> 00:54:26,740
research today
on making this happen.

1207
00:54:26,820 --> 00:54:29,700
Nobody expects to do it
before 2040 at the earliest.

1208
00:54:29,780 --> 00:54:33,100
My guess is 2050,
it'’ll be a few rich people

1209
00:54:33,180 --> 00:54:36,060
and a few kings and queens
here and there and politicians.

1210
00:54:36,140 --> 00:54:39,500
By 2060-2070, it'’s
reasonably well-off people.

1211
00:54:39,580 --> 00:54:43,060
By 2075, pretty much anybody
could be immortal.

1212
00:54:43,140 --> 00:54:45,340
I'’m not convinced that
uploading my consciousness

1213
00:54:45,420 --> 00:54:48,300
onto a computer is
a form of immortality.

1214
00:54:48,380 --> 00:54:50,620
I would like to live forever,

1215
00:54:50,700 --> 00:54:53,060
but I'’m not sure that
I would like to live forever

1216
00:54:53,140 --> 00:54:58,540
as some digibytes of memory
in a computer.

1217
00:54:58,620 --> 00:55:00,100
I wouldn'’t call that
living forever.

1218
00:55:00,180 --> 00:55:01,820
The things I wanna do
with my body

1219
00:55:01,900 --> 00:55:04,580
that I won'’t be able
to do in that computer.

1220
00:55:04,660 --> 00:55:06,740
Immortality is a question
that keeps arising

1221
00:55:06,820 --> 00:55:09,780
in the technology community,
and it'’s one which I think

1222
00:55:09,860 --> 00:55:13,180
is entirely feasible
in principle.

1223
00:55:13,260 --> 00:55:14,700
We won'’t actually
become immortal,

1224
00:55:14,780 --> 00:55:18,100
but what we will do is
we will get the technology

1225
00:55:18,180 --> 00:55:22,620
by around about 2050
to connect a human brain

1226
00:55:22,700 --> 00:55:26,340
to the machine world so well
that most of your thinking

1227
00:55:26,420 --> 00:55:28,340
is happening inside
the computer world,

1228
00:55:28,420 --> 00:55:30,060
inside the I.T.,

1229
00:55:30,140 --> 00:55:31,660
so your brain
is still being used,

1230
00:55:31,740 --> 00:55:34,500
but 99 percent of your thoughts,
99 percent of your memories

1231
00:55:34,580 --> 00:55:36,260
are actually out there
in the cloud

1232
00:55:36,340 --> 00:55:37,940
or whatever you wanna call it,

1233
00:55:38,020 --> 00:55:39,740
and only one percent
is inside your head.

1234
00:55:39,820 --> 00:55:41,380
So walk into work this morning,

1235
00:55:41,460 --> 00:55:44,060
you get hit by a bus,
it doesn'’t matter.

1236
00:55:44,140 --> 00:55:47,620
You just upload you mind
into an android

1237
00:55:47,700 --> 00:55:49,940
on Monday morning and carry on
as if nothing had happened.

1238
00:55:50,020 --> 00:55:51,740
The question with
that kind of technology

1239
00:55:51,820 --> 00:55:55,860
and the extension
of human capacity

1240
00:55:55,940 --> 00:56:00,900
and human life
through technology

1241
00:56:00,980 --> 00:56:03,860
is where does
the human, um, end,

1242
00:56:03,940 --> 00:56:05,540
and the technology begin?

1243
00:56:05,620 --> 00:56:08,980
If we upload our consciousness
into a robot,

1244
00:56:09,060 --> 00:56:13,300
a humanoid robot that has touch,
the ability to feel,

1245
00:56:13,380 --> 00:56:16,860
all of the sensorial inputs,
if they'’re the same,

1246
00:56:16,940 --> 00:56:20,140
there is a potential
of continuity, right?

1247
00:56:20,220 --> 00:56:24,180
So you can have the same
types of experiences

1248
00:56:24,260 --> 00:56:27,020
in that new substrate
that you have as a human being.

1249
00:56:27,100 --> 00:56:29,060
It'’s beyond a continuity issue,

1250
00:56:29,140 --> 00:56:32,380
it'’s an issue that you have
the ability to record

1251
00:56:32,460 --> 00:56:35,340
and recall without the content--

1252
00:56:35,420 --> 00:56:37,180
the content being
the sensations, images

1253
00:56:37,260 --> 00:56:39,660
and feelings and thoughts
you experienced your whole life

1254
00:56:39,740 --> 00:56:40,980
that have associated
with each other

1255
00:56:41,060 --> 00:56:42,420
through your neuronetwork.

1256
00:56:42,500 --> 00:56:43,900
Where are they stored?

1257
00:56:43,980 --> 00:56:47,020
I don'’t think consciousness
and the brain

1258
00:56:47,100 --> 00:56:48,700
is anything to do
with any particular

1259
00:56:48,780 --> 00:56:50,580
individual region in the brain,

1260
00:56:50,660 --> 00:56:53,140
but it'’s something
that'’s all about--

1261
00:56:53,220 --> 00:56:55,420
its distributed organization.

1262
00:56:55,500 --> 00:56:56,980
I don'’t think there
are any mysteries.

1263
00:56:57,060 --> 00:56:59,740
There are no causal mysteries
in the brain,

1264
00:56:59,820 --> 00:57:04,660
and I think that
there'’s a perfectly--

1265
00:57:04,740 --> 00:57:07,100
a comprehensible, physical chain

1266
00:57:07,180 --> 00:57:09,620
of cause and effect
that goes from the things

1267
00:57:09,700 --> 00:57:12,100
that I see and hear around me

1268
00:57:12,180 --> 00:57:13,780
and the words
that come out of my mouth,

1269
00:57:13,860 --> 00:57:18,060
which would encompass
consciousness, I suppose.

1270
00:57:18,140 --> 00:57:19,380
But the things that--

1271
00:57:19,460 --> 00:57:21,140
the moment you say
something like that,

1272
00:57:21,220 --> 00:57:25,020
you'’re on the edge
of the philosophical precipice.

1273
00:57:25,100 --> 00:57:26,380
When you think about a machine,

1274
00:57:26,460 --> 00:57:29,140
the question is are you
simulating consciousness

1275
00:57:29,220 --> 00:57:31,260
or are you simulating cognition?

1276
00:57:32,780 --> 00:57:37,180
Cognition requires inputs
and reactions

1277
00:57:37,260 --> 00:57:38,460
that are associated
with each other

1278
00:57:38,540 --> 00:57:40,980
to create an output
and an outcome.

1279
00:57:41,060 --> 00:57:42,420
And you can program that all day

1280
00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:44,500
and you can make that
as sophisticated

1281
00:57:44,580 --> 00:57:46,100
and as information-dense
as you want,

1282
00:57:46,180 --> 00:57:50,420
almost to the point
that it mimics a real person.

1283
00:57:50,500 --> 00:57:52,740
But the question is will it
ever have the consciousness

1284
00:57:52,820 --> 00:57:54,620
that our species
with our genetics,

1285
00:57:54,700 --> 00:57:56,900
with our brain has.

1286
00:57:56,980 --> 00:58:00,220
No, a machine has
its own consciousness.

1287
00:58:00,300 --> 00:58:02,300
All you'’re doing
is programming it

1288
00:58:02,380 --> 00:58:05,740
to be cognitively responsive
the way you are.

1289
00:58:05,820 --> 00:58:07,820
I remember well,
when my father died,

1290
00:58:07,900 --> 00:58:11,820
asking my mother,
"If I could'’ve captured

1291
00:58:11,900 --> 00:58:15,060
the very being of my father
in a machine,

1292
00:58:15,140 --> 00:58:16,740
and I could put him
in an android

1293
00:58:16,820 --> 00:58:19,460
that looked exactly like him,
had all the mannerisms,

1294
00:58:19,540 --> 00:58:22,740
and it was warm and it smelled
and it felt like him,

1295
00:58:22,820 --> 00:58:24,940
would you do it?"
and she said, "Absolutely not.

1296
00:58:25,020 --> 00:58:27,380
It wouldn'’t be your father,
it wouldn'’t be him."

1297
00:58:27,460 --> 00:58:29,260
I think that someday
you can upload

1298
00:58:29,340 --> 00:58:31,060
your current neuronetwork...

1299
00:58:32,340 --> 00:58:34,300
but that'’s not you.

1300
00:58:34,380 --> 00:58:36,940
That'’s just your current
neuro map, right?

1301
00:58:43,340 --> 00:58:45,300
As with any concept
that proposes

1302
00:58:45,380 --> 00:58:48,300
to change the natural
order of things,

1303
00:58:48,380 --> 00:58:54,100
the idea of extreme longevity
can be met with disbelief.

1304
00:58:54,180 --> 00:58:56,660
But there is currently
an international movement

1305
00:58:56,740 --> 00:58:59,580
called transhumanism
that is concerned

1306
00:58:59,660 --> 00:59:01,580
with fundamentally transforming

1307
00:59:01,660 --> 00:59:04,780
the human condition
by developing technologies

1308
00:59:04,860 --> 00:59:07,340
to greatly enhance human beings

1309
00:59:07,420 --> 00:59:12,260
in an intellectual, physical,
and psychological capacity.

1310
00:59:12,340 --> 00:59:14,940
I really want to just
simply live indefinitely,

1311
00:59:15,020 --> 00:59:17,700
and not have the Spectre
of Death hanging over me,

1312
00:59:17,780 --> 00:59:19,940
potentially
at any moment taking away

1313
00:59:20,020 --> 00:59:22,500
this thing
that we call existence.

1314
00:59:22,580 --> 00:59:24,700
So for me, that'’s
the primary goal

1315
00:59:24,780 --> 00:59:26,780
of the transhumanist movement.

1316
00:59:26,860 --> 00:59:29,740
Transhumanists believe
we should use technology

1317
00:59:29,820 --> 00:59:33,860
to overcome
our biological limitations.

1318
00:59:33,940 --> 00:59:35,220
What does that mean?

1319
00:59:35,300 --> 00:59:39,460
Well, very simplistically,
perhaps,

1320
00:59:39,540 --> 00:59:41,940
I think we should be aiming
for what one might call

1321
00:59:42,020 --> 00:59:44,300
a triple S civilization

1322
00:59:44,380 --> 00:59:48,300
of super intelligence,
super longevity,

1323
00:59:48,380 --> 00:59:49,900
and super happiness.

1324
00:59:49,980 --> 00:59:52,340
We have been evolving
through hundreds and hundreds

1325
00:59:52,420 --> 00:59:54,700
of thousands of years,
human beings,

1326
00:59:54,780 --> 00:59:57,220
and transhumanism
is the climax of that.

1327
00:59:57,300 --> 00:59:59,780
It'’s the result of
how we'’re going to get

1328
00:59:59,860 --> 01:00:04,460
to some kind of great future
where we are way beyond

1329
01:00:04,540 --> 01:00:06,100
what it means
to be a human being.

1330
01:00:06,180 --> 01:00:11,260
Unfortunately, organic robots
grow old and die,

1331
01:00:11,340 --> 01:00:15,780
and this isn'’t a choice,
it'’s completely involuntary.

1332
01:00:15,860 --> 01:00:18,060
120 years from now,
in the absence

1333
01:00:18,140 --> 01:00:21,300
of radical
biological interventions,

1334
01:00:21,380 --> 01:00:24,900
everyone listening
to this video will be dead,

1335
01:00:24,980 --> 01:00:27,140
and not beautifully as so,

1336
01:00:27,220 --> 01:00:30,900
but one'’s last years tends
to be those of decrepitude,

1337
01:00:30,980 --> 01:00:34,220
frequently senility, infirmity,

1338
01:00:34,300 --> 01:00:39,180
and transhumanists don'’t accept
aging as inevitable.

1339
01:00:39,260 --> 01:00:41,620
There'’s no immutable
law of nature

1340
01:00:41,700 --> 01:00:44,620
that says that organic robots
must grow old.

1341
01:00:44,700 --> 01:00:47,300
After all, silicone robots,
they don'’t need to grow old.

1342
01:00:47,380 --> 01:00:50,780
Their parts can be
replaced and upgraded.

1343
01:00:50,860 --> 01:00:52,340
Our bodies are capable
of adjusting

1344
01:00:52,420 --> 01:00:54,140
in ways we'’ve hardly dreamt of.

1345
01:00:55,500 --> 01:00:57,060
If we can only find the key.

1346
01:00:58,300 --> 01:01:00,900
I'’m so close now, so very close.

1347
01:01:02,820 --> 01:01:05,020
-The key to what?
-To be able to replace

1348
01:01:05,100 --> 01:01:06,700
diseased and damaged parts
of the body

1349
01:01:06,780 --> 01:01:09,380
as easily as we replace
eye corneas now.

1350
01:01:10,380 --> 01:01:11,380
Can'’t be done.

1351
01:01:12,900 --> 01:01:13,980
It can be done!

1352
01:01:15,380 --> 01:01:18,140
The relationship
between life and death

1353
01:01:18,220 --> 01:01:23,020
and the role of technology
in forestalling death

1354
01:01:23,100 --> 01:01:26,780
creates death, in a way,
as a new kind of problem.

1355
01:01:26,860 --> 01:01:30,020
Death becomes something
that needs to be solved.

1356
01:01:30,100 --> 01:01:31,140
Why would it be good
to live forever?

1357
01:01:31,220 --> 01:01:32,380
'’Cause if you have a shit day,

1358
01:01:32,460 --> 01:01:35,180
it dilutes the depression

1359
01:01:35,260 --> 01:01:37,820
within countless
other days, you know?

1360
01:01:37,900 --> 01:01:42,820
And all of these metrics
are about failing to exist

1361
01:01:42,900 --> 01:01:46,020
in the full light
of your own autonomy.

1362
01:01:46,100 --> 01:01:47,860
That'’s all they'’re about,

1363
01:01:47,940 --> 01:01:49,940
and the paradox
of your own autonomy,

1364
01:01:50,020 --> 01:01:52,580
which is you'’re
simultaneously completely free

1365
01:01:52,660 --> 01:01:55,340
and completely unfree
at the same time.

1366
01:01:55,420 --> 01:01:56,780
I have been to many conferences

1367
01:01:56,860 --> 01:01:59,060
where you got
the anti-transhumanist person

1368
01:01:59,140 --> 01:02:01,500
saying, "This is just
denial of death."

1369
01:02:01,580 --> 01:02:04,540
At the end of the day,
that'’s all it'’s about, right?

1370
01:02:04,620 --> 01:02:07,540
And it'’s a kind of--
the last hangover

1371
01:02:07,620 --> 01:02:08,940
of the Abrahamic religions,

1372
01:02:09,020 --> 01:02:10,260
this idea that
we'’re gonna, you know,

1373
01:02:10,340 --> 01:02:11,860
come back to God and all this,

1374
01:02:11,940 --> 01:02:14,340
and we'’re gonna realize
our God-like nature,

1375
01:02:14,420 --> 01:02:19,180
and this is really the last kind
of point for that.

1376
01:02:20,540 --> 01:02:21,980
I think there'’s
a lot of truth to that,

1377
01:02:22,060 --> 01:02:23,660
especially in terms
of the issues

1378
01:02:23,740 --> 01:02:25,300
we'’ve been talking about
where everybody just seems

1379
01:02:25,380 --> 01:02:27,300
to just take for granted
that if you'’re given

1380
01:02:27,380 --> 01:02:29,980
the chance to live forever,
you'’d live forever.

1381
01:02:30,060 --> 01:02:32,740
I think yes,
I think that that'’s true.

1382
01:02:32,820 --> 01:02:35,780
I don'’t think it'’s--
I think it'’s true,

1383
01:02:35,860 --> 01:02:37,140
I don'’t know
if it'’s as problematic

1384
01:02:37,220 --> 01:02:39,020
as people kind of claim it is.

1385
01:02:39,100 --> 01:02:40,460
In other words, that
there'’s something wrong

1386
01:02:40,540 --> 01:02:42,100
with having this fear of death

1387
01:02:42,180 --> 01:02:43,700
and wanting to live forever.

1388
01:02:43,780 --> 01:02:45,860
No, I think living forever is--

1389
01:02:45,940 --> 01:02:48,460
I think the question is what
are you doing with your time?

1390
01:02:48,540 --> 01:02:50,660
In what capacity
do you wanna live forever?

1391
01:02:50,740 --> 01:02:52,940
So I do think it makes
all the difference in the world

1392
01:02:53,020 --> 01:02:54,740
whether we'’re talking
about Kurzweil'’s way

1393
01:02:54,820 --> 01:02:56,420
or we'’re talking
about Aubrey de Grey'’s way.

1394
01:02:56,500 --> 01:02:58,140
The way the human
species operates

1395
01:02:58,220 --> 01:03:01,100
is that we'’re really never
fully ready for anything.

1396
01:03:01,180 --> 01:03:03,940
However, the prospect
of living indefinitely

1397
01:03:04,020 --> 01:03:07,860
is too promising
to turn down or to slow down

1398
01:03:07,940 --> 01:03:10,860
or to just not go after
at full speed.

1399
01:03:10,940 --> 01:03:12,900
By enabling us
to find technologies

1400
01:03:12,980 --> 01:03:14,900
to live indefinitely,
we'’re not making it

1401
01:03:14,980 --> 01:03:16,500
so that we'’re going
to live forever,

1402
01:03:16,580 --> 01:03:18,660
we'’re just making it
so we have that choice.

1403
01:03:18,740 --> 01:03:20,500
If people wanna
pull out of life

1404
01:03:20,580 --> 01:03:22,020
at some point down the future,

1405
01:03:22,100 --> 01:03:23,780
they'’re certainly
welcome to do that.

1406
01:03:23,860 --> 01:03:27,180
However, it'’s gonna be great
to eliminate death if we want,

1407
01:03:27,260 --> 01:03:29,180
because everyone
wants that choice.

1408
01:03:30,700 --> 01:03:32,940
There are other
socioeconomic repercussions

1409
01:03:33,020 --> 01:03:36,260
of living longer
that need to be considered.

1410
01:03:36,340 --> 01:03:38,820
The combination
of an aging population

1411
01:03:38,900 --> 01:03:41,580
and the escalating expenses
of healthcare,

1412
01:03:41,660 --> 01:03:44,340
social care, and retirement
is a problem

1413
01:03:44,420 --> 01:03:47,300
that already exists
the world over.

1414
01:03:47,380 --> 01:03:49,220
In the last century alone,

1415
01:03:49,300 --> 01:03:51,420
medicine has
massively contributed

1416
01:03:51,500 --> 01:03:53,620
to increased life expectancy.

1417
01:03:55,140 --> 01:03:57,900
According to the World
Health Organization,

1418
01:03:57,980 --> 01:04:00,900
the number of people
aged 60 years and over

1419
01:04:00,980 --> 01:04:05,140
is expected to increase
from the 605 million today

1420
01:04:05,220 --> 01:04:09,380
to 2 billion by the year 2050.

1421
01:04:09,460 --> 01:04:12,100
As people live longer,
they become more susceptible

1422
01:04:12,180 --> 01:04:15,220
to noncommunicable diseases.

1423
01:04:15,300 --> 01:04:18,900
This becomes
enormously expensive.

1424
01:04:18,980 --> 01:04:24,500
Dementia alone costs the NHS
23 billion a year.

1425
01:04:24,580 --> 01:04:27,140
Currently, elderly non-workers

1426
01:04:27,220 --> 01:04:30,980
account for a vast portion
of our population

1427
01:04:31,060 --> 01:04:35,580
and a vast portion of our work
force care for them.

1428
01:04:35,660 --> 01:04:39,260
It is economically beneficial
to end aging.

1429
01:04:41,260 --> 01:04:44,100
Social life is organized
around people having--

1430
01:04:44,180 --> 01:04:47,460
occupying certain roles
at certain ages, right?

1431
01:04:47,540 --> 01:04:49,540
And you can already see
the kinds of problems

1432
01:04:49,620 --> 01:04:51,820
that are caused
to the welfare system

1433
01:04:51,900 --> 01:04:54,780
when people live substantially
beyond the age of 65,

1434
01:04:54,860 --> 01:04:59,820
because when the whole number 65
was selected by Bismarck

1435
01:04:59,900 --> 01:05:01,860
when he started the first
social security system,

1436
01:05:01,940 --> 01:05:04,620
in Germany, the expectation was
that people would be living

1437
01:05:04,700 --> 01:05:07,260
two years beyond
the retirement age

1438
01:05:07,340 --> 01:05:08,900
to be able to get
the social security.

1439
01:05:08,980 --> 01:05:11,020
So it wasn'’t gonna
break the bank, okay?

1440
01:05:11,100 --> 01:05:13,700
Problem now is you'’ve got people
who are living 20 years

1441
01:05:13,780 --> 01:05:16,140
or more beyond
the retirement age,

1442
01:05:16,220 --> 01:05:17,820
and that'’s unaffordable.

1443
01:05:17,900 --> 01:05:20,700
There'’s no question that,
within society as a whole,

1444
01:05:20,780 --> 01:05:24,740
there is an enormous tendency
to knee-jerk reactions

1445
01:05:24,820 --> 01:05:27,740
with regard to the problems
that might be created

1446
01:05:27,820 --> 01:05:30,620
if we were to eliminate aging.

1447
01:05:30,700 --> 01:05:32,700
There have been people
that said, you know,

1448
01:05:32,780 --> 01:05:35,220
"You'’ll be bored,
you won'’t have anything to do."

1449
01:05:35,300 --> 01:05:38,260
Speaking from a place
of a lifespan

1450
01:05:38,340 --> 01:05:40,220
that'’s 80 or 90 years old,

1451
01:05:40,300 --> 01:05:41,900
saying that we'’re
going to be bored

1452
01:05:41,980 --> 01:05:45,060
if we live to 150 years old
really is just invalid.

1453
01:05:45,140 --> 01:05:47,500
We have no idea what
we'’ll do with that time.

1454
01:05:47,580 --> 01:05:49,060
Part of
this transhumanism stuff,

1455
01:05:49,140 --> 01:05:52,060
where it gets some kind
of real policy traction,

1456
01:05:52,140 --> 01:05:55,820
is people who want us
not to live to be 1,000,

1457
01:05:55,900 --> 01:05:58,500
but maybe if we can
take that 20 years

1458
01:05:58,580 --> 01:06:01,740
that we'’re living longer now
than we did 100 years ago

1459
01:06:01,820 --> 01:06:03,860
and keep that productive.

1460
01:06:03,940 --> 01:06:05,500
So in other words,
if you could still be strong

1461
01:06:05,580 --> 01:06:08,860
and still be sharp
into your 70s and 80s,

1462
01:06:08,940 --> 01:06:11,540
and so not have to pull
any social security

1463
01:06:11,620 --> 01:06:14,500
until quite late in life
and then you'’ll be--

1464
01:06:14,580 --> 01:06:16,140
you'’ll have 20 extra years

1465
01:06:16,220 --> 01:06:18,540
where you'’re actually
contributing to the economy.

1466
01:06:18,620 --> 01:06:20,060
So one of the areas that
we'’re gonna have to think about

1467
01:06:20,140 --> 01:06:22,380
in the near future
if we do achieve

1468
01:06:22,460 --> 01:06:25,340
extreme longevity physically

1469
01:06:25,420 --> 01:06:28,380
is the idea of overpopulation.

1470
01:06:28,460 --> 01:06:31,460
This is a controversial idea,
of course,

1471
01:06:31,540 --> 01:06:35,580
and we may face a time period
where we have to say to people,

1472
01:06:35,660 --> 01:06:39,540
"You have to be licensed
to have more than one child."

1473
01:06:39,620 --> 01:06:42,220
The ideas around children,
I hope, will probably change

1474
01:06:42,300 --> 01:06:47,500
when people start to realize
that the values of children

1475
01:06:47,580 --> 01:06:49,780
need to be defined first
before we have them.

1476
01:06:49,860 --> 01:06:51,380
And that'’s not
something that we do.

1477
01:06:51,460 --> 01:06:54,260
We just have them,
and we don'’t define why

1478
01:06:54,340 --> 01:06:55,740
or for what purpose.

1479
01:06:55,820 --> 01:06:57,380
I'’m not saying there has
to be a defined purpose,

1480
01:06:57,460 --> 01:06:59,860
but I'’m saying that just
to continue our gene line

1481
01:06:59,940 --> 01:07:01,380
isn'’t the biggest reason.

1482
01:07:01,460 --> 01:07:02,980
At the moment, ultimately,

1483
01:07:03,060 --> 01:07:06,380
we see in any society
where fertility rate goes down

1484
01:07:06,460 --> 01:07:09,220
because of female prosperity
and emancipation

1485
01:07:09,300 --> 01:07:11,940
and education,
we also see the age

1486
01:07:12,020 --> 01:07:15,100
of the average childbirth
go up, right?

1487
01:07:15,180 --> 01:07:16,900
We see women having
their children later.

1488
01:07:16,980 --> 01:07:19,820
Now of course, at the moment,
there'’s a deadline for that,

1489
01:07:19,900 --> 01:07:21,580
but that'’s not going
to exist anymore,

1490
01:07:21,660 --> 01:07:23,420
because menopause
is part of aging.

1491
01:07:23,500 --> 01:07:25,900
So women who are choosing
to have their children

1492
01:07:25,980 --> 01:07:27,820
a bit later now,

1493
01:07:27,900 --> 01:07:29,620
it stands to reason
that a lot of them

1494
01:07:29,700 --> 01:07:31,260
are probably gonna choose
to have their children

1495
01:07:31,340 --> 01:07:33,300
a lot later and a lot later
and that, of course,

1496
01:07:33,380 --> 01:07:36,340
also has an enormous
depressive impact

1497
01:07:36,420 --> 01:07:39,380
on the trajectory
of global population.

1498
01:07:39,460 --> 01:07:40,900
If we actually said
to everybody, "Okay,

1499
01:07:40,980 --> 01:07:42,900
you'’re all now
gonna live for 1,000 years,

1500
01:07:42,980 --> 01:07:44,740
we could restructure society

1501
01:07:44,820 --> 01:07:46,700
so it'’s on
these 1,000-year cycles.

1502
01:07:46,780 --> 01:07:50,020
That'’s possible,
but the problem becomes

1503
01:07:50,100 --> 01:07:53,900
when you still allow people
to live the normal length

1504
01:07:53,980 --> 01:07:56,620
and you'’re also allowing
some people to live 1,000 years

1505
01:07:56,700 --> 01:07:59,300
then how do you compare
the value of the lives,

1506
01:07:59,380 --> 01:08:00,460
the amount of experience?

1507
01:08:00,540 --> 01:08:03,340
Supposing a 585-year-old guy

1508
01:08:03,420 --> 01:08:05,460
goes up for a job
against a 23-year-old.

1509
01:08:05,540 --> 01:08:07,100
How do you measure
the experience?

1510
01:08:07,180 --> 01:08:08,780
What, the old guy
always gets the job?

1511
01:08:08,860 --> 01:08:12,580
I mean, really, these kinds
of problems would arise

1512
01:08:12,660 --> 01:08:14,940
unless there was
some kind of legislation

1513
01:08:15,020 --> 01:08:17,540
about permissible
variation in age.

1514
01:08:17,620 --> 01:08:19,180
This is a bit of a conundrum

1515
01:08:19,260 --> 01:08:23,300
because we'’re all
expanding our lifespan,

1516
01:08:23,380 --> 01:08:26,340
and the question is,
would you like to live

1517
01:08:26,420 --> 01:08:28,700
for not 100 years but 200?

1518
01:08:28,780 --> 01:08:30,780
Would you choose
to if you could?

1519
01:08:30,860 --> 01:08:32,940
It would be very,
very difficult to say no.

1520
01:08:33,020 --> 01:08:36,420
The reality is the replacement
of human piece parts

1521
01:08:36,500 --> 01:08:39,020
is probably gonna take us
in that direction,

1522
01:08:39,100 --> 01:08:40,580
but it will be market driven,

1523
01:08:40,660 --> 01:08:43,060
and those people with the money
will be able to afford

1524
01:08:43,140 --> 01:08:45,140
to live a lot longer
than those people without.

1525
01:08:45,220 --> 01:08:46,980
Pretty much most of
the discovery these days

1526
01:08:47,060 --> 01:08:49,380
takes place in Western Europe
of the United States

1527
01:08:49,460 --> 01:08:54,060
or one or two other countries,
China, Singapore, and so on,

1528
01:08:54,140 --> 01:08:57,380
but if they'’re valuable enough--
and I don'’t mean monetarily--

1529
01:08:57,460 --> 01:09:00,620
if they'’re worth having,
then people extend them.

1530
01:09:00,700 --> 01:09:02,700
We have to start somewhere,
and I don'’t believe

1531
01:09:02,780 --> 01:09:04,740
in the dog
in the manger attitude

1532
01:09:04,820 --> 01:09:06,020
is that you don'’t
give it to anybody

1533
01:09:06,100 --> 01:09:08,020
until you can provide it
for everybody.

1534
01:09:08,100 --> 01:09:10,620
All technologies
are discontinuous.

1535
01:09:10,700 --> 01:09:13,220
There are people
at this very moment

1536
01:09:13,300 --> 01:09:15,060
who are walking four kilometers

1537
01:09:15,140 --> 01:09:17,980
to get a bucket of water
from a well.

1538
01:09:18,060 --> 01:09:20,820
You know, there are people
who are having cornea operations

1539
01:09:20,900 --> 01:09:24,380
that are done with a needle
where it'’s stuck in their eye

1540
01:09:24,460 --> 01:09:26,620
and their cornea is scraped out.

1541
01:09:26,700 --> 01:09:29,100
You know, so these ideas
of totalizing

1542
01:09:29,180 --> 01:09:31,820
utopian technological
intervention

1543
01:09:31,900 --> 01:09:34,500
are part of a discontinuous
technological world

1544
01:09:34,580 --> 01:09:37,820
and the world will always be
discontinuous technologically.

1545
01:09:37,900 --> 01:09:42,060
When a child has to drink
dirty water, cannot get food,

1546
01:09:42,140 --> 01:09:44,700
and is dying of starvation
and disease,

1547
01:09:44,780 --> 01:09:47,420
and the solution
is just a few dollars,

1548
01:09:47,500 --> 01:09:48,860
there'’s something badly wrong.

1549
01:09:48,940 --> 01:09:51,780
We need to fix those things.

1550
01:09:51,860 --> 01:09:55,660
The only way that
we could fix them in the past

1551
01:09:55,740 --> 01:09:57,620
would'’ve been
at unbelievable cost

1552
01:09:57,700 --> 01:09:59,020
because of the limitation

1553
01:09:59,100 --> 01:10:01,180
of our industrial capacity
and capability.

1554
01:10:01,260 --> 01:10:02,500
Not anymore.

1555
01:10:07,780 --> 01:10:11,820
...not the one which is--
which stops us from aging.

1556
01:10:11,900 --> 01:10:16,580
In the last 20 years,
healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa

1557
01:10:16,660 --> 01:10:18,100
has greatly improved.

1558
01:10:19,260 --> 01:10:22,020
HIV prevalence has gone down,

1559
01:10:22,100 --> 01:10:24,860
Infant mortality rate
has gone down.

1560
01:10:24,940 --> 01:10:27,740
Immunization rates have gone up,

1561
01:10:27,820 --> 01:10:30,620
and the drug supply
in many areas has risen.

1562
01:10:31,780 --> 01:10:34,380
However, healthcare
and medication

1563
01:10:34,460 --> 01:10:36,140
in developing countries

1564
01:10:36,220 --> 01:10:40,220
is not always affordable
or even readily available.

1565
01:10:40,300 --> 01:10:41,980
It is not just medicine.

1566
01:10:42,060 --> 01:10:44,420
According to the World
Health Organization,

1567
01:10:44,500 --> 01:10:47,660
over 700 million people
worldwide

1568
01:10:47,740 --> 01:10:51,380
do not have access
to clean drinking water.

1569
01:10:51,460 --> 01:10:54,140
We still live in an age
where over one billion people

1570
01:10:54,220 --> 01:10:56,380
live off less
than a dollar a day

1571
01:10:56,460 --> 01:10:58,900
and live in extreme poverty.

1572
01:10:58,980 --> 01:11:01,780
It is ultimately
not a scientific issue,

1573
01:11:01,860 --> 01:11:04,140
it is a geopolitical issue.

1574
01:12:06,020 --> 01:12:08,580
Now a lot of people,
a lot of philanthropists

1575
01:12:08,660 --> 01:12:13,180
are of the view that
the most important thing to do

1576
01:12:13,260 --> 01:12:16,820
is to address the trailing edge
of quality of life.

1577
01:12:16,900 --> 01:12:19,780
In other words, to help
the disadvantaged.

1578
01:12:19,860 --> 01:12:22,380
But some visionary
philanthropists

1579
01:12:22,460 --> 01:12:25,300
such as the ones that fund
SENS Research Foundation--

1580
01:12:25,380 --> 01:12:27,020
and the fact is
I agree with this,

1581
01:12:27,100 --> 01:12:28,940
and that'’s why I'’ve put
most of my inheritance

1582
01:12:29,020 --> 01:12:31,380
into SENS Research
Foundation, too--

1583
01:12:31,460 --> 01:12:35,300
we feel that, actually,
in the long run,

1584
01:12:35,380 --> 01:12:38,700
you lose out if you focus
too exclusively

1585
01:12:38,780 --> 01:12:40,340
on the trailing edge.

1586
01:12:40,420 --> 01:12:43,420
You'’ve got also to push forward
the leading edge,

1587
01:12:43,500 --> 01:12:46,580
so that in the long term,
everybody moves forward.

1588
01:13:36,820 --> 01:13:39,460
Due to a lack of funding
from governments,

1589
01:13:39,540 --> 01:13:43,700
anti-aging research is often
pushed into the private sector.

1590
01:13:43,780 --> 01:13:47,420
If we look at funding
for disease--

1591
01:13:47,500 --> 01:13:49,140
cancer, heart disease--

1592
01:13:49,220 --> 01:13:51,340
they get six billion,
eight billion, ten billion.

1593
01:13:51,420 --> 01:13:54,460
AIDS still gets two
to four billion.

1594
01:13:54,540 --> 01:13:56,540
Let'’s look
at Alzheimer'’s disease.

1595
01:13:56,620 --> 01:13:58,780
It'’s probably the most
important disease of aging,

1596
01:13:58,860 --> 01:14:02,260
the brain--it gets
under a half a billion

1597
01:14:02,340 --> 01:14:03,500
from the federal government,

1598
01:14:03,580 --> 01:14:05,620
and a lot of that
goes to programs

1599
01:14:05,700 --> 01:14:07,380
that are tied up
with pharma trials

1600
01:14:07,460 --> 01:14:09,500
where we don'’t really
see it in the labs,

1601
01:14:09,580 --> 01:14:12,060
so you'’re maybe down to two
or three hundred million.

1602
01:14:12,140 --> 01:14:15,380
It'’s not nearly enough
to really make a dent.

1603
01:14:15,460 --> 01:14:20,820
The question is, why when it
comes to Alzheimer'’s disease,

1604
01:14:20,900 --> 01:14:22,940
which is a problem
in the elderly

1605
01:14:23,020 --> 01:14:24,980
do we just see it as--
the federal government

1606
01:14:25,060 --> 01:14:27,100
seems to see it
as a red-haired stepchild.

1607
01:14:27,180 --> 01:14:29,900
They don'’t take care of it.

1608
01:14:29,980 --> 01:14:31,420
Some people say it'’s because--

1609
01:14:31,500 --> 01:14:32,620
people say, "Well,
it affects old people,

1610
01:14:32,700 --> 01:14:34,820
they lived their lives,
let them go."

1611
01:14:34,900 --> 01:14:37,340
No one wants to admit that,
but maybe subconsciously,

1612
01:14:37,420 --> 01:14:39,180
when Congress is
thinking about this,

1613
01:14:39,260 --> 01:14:40,980
that'’s at play, who knows?

1614
01:14:41,060 --> 01:14:43,780
Um, maybe it'’s
much more compelling

1615
01:14:43,860 --> 01:14:47,700
to wanna put money into diseases
that affect young people

1616
01:14:47,780 --> 01:14:49,780
who still have
their whole life to live

1617
01:14:49,860 --> 01:14:51,660
when they have AIDS
or breast cancer

1618
01:14:51,740 --> 01:14:54,180
or cancer that can strike
somebody at 30 or 40 years old.

1619
01:14:54,260 --> 01:14:56,540
Age might be part of it,
and even if it'’s something

1620
01:14:56,620 --> 01:14:58,460
where you'’d say,
"No, it can'’t be that!"

1621
01:14:58,540 --> 01:15:00,140
you never know what'’s
happening subconsciously

1622
01:15:00,220 --> 01:15:01,860
in those who are
making the decisions.

1623
01:15:01,940 --> 01:15:03,540
Otherwise, it just
makes no sense at all.

1624
01:15:03,620 --> 01:15:05,100
I don'’t know how to explain it.

1625
01:15:05,180 --> 01:15:06,820
When you talk
to people about aging

1626
01:15:06,900 --> 01:15:09,740
and rejuvenation medicine,
you'’re talking about things

1627
01:15:09,820 --> 01:15:12,180
that they haven'’t put
in the same category

1628
01:15:12,260 --> 01:15:13,780
as things that they can fight.

1629
01:15:13,860 --> 01:15:14,940
They are willing to put money

1630
01:15:15,020 --> 01:15:16,820
towards solving cancer
and curing cancer.

1631
01:15:16,900 --> 01:15:19,180
It'’s something they might have
the potential of experiencing.

1632
01:15:19,260 --> 01:15:22,100
But the thing that'’s 100 percent
in terms of probability,

1633
01:15:22,180 --> 01:15:24,260
they haven'’t classified that
as in the same category

1634
01:15:24,340 --> 01:15:26,420
when actually it is
and actually it'’s more dramatic

1635
01:15:26,500 --> 01:15:28,700
because 100 percent
of people experience it.

1636
01:15:28,780 --> 01:15:31,740
You need to have
the will to be cured.

1637
01:15:31,820 --> 01:15:35,820
Beyond that, medical science
will play its part.

1638
01:15:35,900 --> 01:15:38,660
I think it'’s essentially a crime

1639
01:15:38,740 --> 01:15:41,100
to not support
life extension science,

1640
01:15:41,180 --> 01:15:42,940
because if you support
the other side,

1641
01:15:43,020 --> 01:15:45,420
you'’re an advocate
for killing someone.

1642
01:15:45,500 --> 01:15:49,820
When you actually support
a culture of death,

1643
01:15:49,900 --> 01:15:53,100
when you support
embracing death,

1644
01:15:53,180 --> 01:15:56,740
what you'’re really doing is
not supporting embracing life.

1645
01:15:56,820 --> 01:15:58,580
Everyone ought to be healthy,

1646
01:15:58,660 --> 01:16:01,180
however long ago they were born.

1647
01:16:01,260 --> 01:16:03,940
When someone says, "Oh, dear,
we shouldn'’t defeat aging,

1648
01:16:04,020 --> 01:16:05,740
we shouldn'’t work
to eliminate aging,"

1649
01:16:05,820 --> 01:16:08,380
what they'’re actually saying
is they'’re not in favor

1650
01:16:08,460 --> 01:16:11,060
of healthcare for the elderly,
or to be more precise,

1651
01:16:11,140 --> 01:16:13,220
what they'’re saying is
they'’re only in favor

1652
01:16:13,300 --> 01:16:14,940
of healthcare for the elderly

1653
01:16:15,020 --> 01:16:17,820
so long as it
doesn'’t work very well.

1654
01:16:17,900 --> 01:16:19,820
And I think that'’s fucked up.

1655
01:16:20,900 --> 01:16:23,340
In September 2013,

1656
01:16:23,420 --> 01:16:26,620
Google announced
the conception of Calico,

1657
01:16:26,700 --> 01:16:28,660
an independent biotech company

1658
01:16:28,740 --> 01:16:31,940
that remains to this day
a little mysterious.

1659
01:16:32,020 --> 01:16:36,180
Its aim is to tackle aging
and devise interventions

1660
01:16:36,260 --> 01:16:40,420
that enable people to lead
longer and healthier lives.

1661
01:16:40,500 --> 01:16:42,900
In September 2014,

1662
01:16:42,980 --> 01:16:45,740
the life extension company
announced it was partnering

1663
01:16:45,820 --> 01:16:49,380
with biopharmaceutical
giant AbbVie,

1664
01:16:49,460 --> 01:16:54,780
and made a $1.5 billion
investment into research.

1665
01:16:54,860 --> 01:16:56,500
I think one of
the biggest obstacles

1666
01:16:56,580 --> 01:16:58,860
that we have at the moment
to come to terms

1667
01:16:58,940 --> 01:17:01,220
with this future world
we'’re talking about

1668
01:17:01,300 --> 01:17:03,300
is a lot of people
who basically

1669
01:17:03,380 --> 01:17:05,740
don'’t want it to happen at all

1670
01:17:05,820 --> 01:17:09,020
and so are placing
all kinds of ethical

1671
01:17:09,100 --> 01:17:11,020
and institutional restrictions

1672
01:17:11,100 --> 01:17:12,820
on the development
of this stuff

1673
01:17:12,900 --> 01:17:14,780
so that it becomes difficult,
let'’s say, in universities

1674
01:17:14,860 --> 01:17:17,220
to experiment with certain
kinds of drugs, right?

1675
01:17:17,300 --> 01:17:19,380
To develop certain kinds
of machines maybe even,

1676
01:17:19,460 --> 01:17:21,660
and as a result,
all of that kind of research

1677
01:17:21,740 --> 01:17:24,140
ends up going into
either the private sector

1678
01:17:24,220 --> 01:17:26,860
or maybe underground, right?

1679
01:17:26,940 --> 01:17:29,220
Or going into some country
that'’s an ethics-free zone

1680
01:17:29,300 --> 01:17:31,300
like China
or someplace like that,

1681
01:17:31,380 --> 01:17:33,020
and I think that'’s
where the real problems

1682
01:17:33,100 --> 01:17:36,020
potentially lie, because
we really need to be doing,

1683
01:17:36,100 --> 01:17:37,700
you know, we need to be
developing this stuff,

1684
01:17:37,780 --> 01:17:39,740
but in the public eye, right?

1685
01:17:39,820 --> 01:17:42,740
So it should be done
by the mainstream authorities

1686
01:17:42,820 --> 01:17:44,380
so we can monitor
the consequences

1687
01:17:44,460 --> 01:17:45,660
as they'’re happening
and then be able

1688
01:17:45,740 --> 01:17:47,220
to take appropriate action.

1689
01:17:47,300 --> 01:17:48,620
But I'’m afraid that
a lot of this stuff

1690
01:17:48,700 --> 01:17:51,820
is perhaps being driven outside

1691
01:17:51,900 --> 01:17:53,900
because of all the restrictions
that are placed on it.

1692
01:17:53,980 --> 01:17:55,540
That I think is very worrisome,

1693
01:17:55,620 --> 01:17:57,220
because then you can'’t
keep track of the results,

1694
01:17:57,300 --> 01:17:59,700
and you don'’t know
exactly what'’s happening.

1695
01:17:59,780 --> 01:18:01,740
And I think that'’s
a real problem already

1696
01:18:01,820 --> 01:18:03,540
with a lot of this
more futuristic stuff.

1697
01:18:05,780 --> 01:18:07,540
Arguably, the human condition

1698
01:18:07,620 --> 01:18:10,700
is defined by
our anxiety of death.

1699
01:18:10,780 --> 01:18:13,100
It'’s of little wonder
that throughout history,

1700
01:18:13,180 --> 01:18:16,300
mankind has built
countless belief systems

1701
01:18:16,380 --> 01:18:19,060
in a bid to pacify
the fear of death

1702
01:18:19,140 --> 01:18:22,300
through the promise
of endless paradise.

1703
01:18:22,380 --> 01:18:25,940
Ultimately, death always wins.

1704
01:18:26,020 --> 01:18:30,500
If it'’s not so much death
we fear, it'’s dying.

1705
01:18:30,580 --> 01:18:32,540
The relationship
between life and death

1706
01:18:32,620 --> 01:18:37,140
is often figured
in terms of immortality

1707
01:18:37,220 --> 01:18:39,020
and the quest for immortality.

1708
01:18:39,100 --> 01:18:41,300
There'’s a philosopher,
a brilliant philosopher

1709
01:18:41,380 --> 01:18:44,900
called Stephen Cave, who,
in his book Immortality,

1710
01:18:44,980 --> 01:18:48,820
argues that our fear of death
is the great driver

1711
01:18:48,900 --> 01:18:52,860
of all civilization,
of all human endeavor,

1712
01:18:52,940 --> 01:18:56,020
and he identifies
four different ways

1713
01:18:56,100 --> 01:18:59,420
in which people
seek immortality,

1714
01:18:59,500 --> 01:19:03,420
so firstly the idea
of extending life,

1715
01:19:03,500 --> 01:19:05,340
of living forever.

1716
01:19:05,420 --> 01:19:07,540
Secondly, the idea
of resurrection

1717
01:19:07,620 --> 01:19:11,780
so that we might come back
after death in some form.

1718
01:19:11,860 --> 01:19:15,180
Thirdly, the idea
of the immortality

1719
01:19:15,260 --> 01:19:19,260
of some part of ourselves
beyond the physical body.

1720
01:19:19,340 --> 01:19:22,380
So perhaps the immortality
of the soul, for example,

1721
01:19:22,460 --> 01:19:25,060
or living on in Heaven.

1722
01:19:25,140 --> 01:19:29,380
And finally the idea
of leaving a legacy.

1723
01:19:29,460 --> 01:19:32,100
I think that one
of life'’s challenges

1724
01:19:32,180 --> 01:19:34,140
really actually is
to come to terms

1725
01:19:34,220 --> 01:19:37,060
with our own finitude
and mortality

1726
01:19:37,140 --> 01:19:39,220
and human limitations,

1727
01:19:39,300 --> 01:19:42,620
and this is
an enormous challenge.

1728
01:19:58,100 --> 01:20:02,260
Technology, a reflection
of our times.

1729
01:20:02,340 --> 01:20:07,340
Efficient, computerized,
with a sleek beauty all its own.

1730
01:20:07,420 --> 01:20:09,860
Technology is
the human imagination

1731
01:20:09,940 --> 01:20:12,020
converted into reality.

1732
01:20:12,100 --> 01:20:13,980
We are all interested
in the future,

1733
01:20:14,060 --> 01:20:16,180
for that is where you and I
are going to spend

1734
01:20:16,260 --> 01:20:18,180
the rest of our lives.

1735
01:20:27,820 --> 01:20:29,740
It'’s impossible to say for sure

1736
01:20:29,820 --> 01:20:32,540
where these new technologies
will take us

1737
01:20:32,620 --> 01:20:36,460
and how we will prepare
to implement them into society.

1738
01:20:36,540 --> 01:20:39,180
It is likely that they will
affect the sensibilities

1739
01:20:39,260 --> 01:20:42,540
of global infrastructure.

1740
01:20:42,620 --> 01:20:46,580
There are always anxieties
surrounding new technologies,

1741
01:20:46,660 --> 01:20:48,940
and this time is no exception.

1742
01:20:50,140 --> 01:20:52,220
I think people fear change,

1743
01:20:52,300 --> 01:20:55,060
and so the future represents
this enormous amount

1744
01:20:55,140 --> 01:20:57,460
of change that'’s coming at us.

1745
01:20:57,540 --> 01:20:59,220
I do think it'’s
overwhelming for people,

1746
01:20:59,300 --> 01:21:02,460
you know, they are
afraid to change

1747
01:21:02,540 --> 01:21:04,060
the paradigm that they live in,

1748
01:21:04,140 --> 01:21:06,700
and when we talk about
the future of work and death,

1749
01:21:06,780 --> 01:21:08,940
what we'’re really
talking about is changing

1750
01:21:09,020 --> 01:21:10,980
a paradigm
that has existed for us

1751
01:21:11,060 --> 01:21:12,220
as long as we can remember.

1752
01:21:12,300 --> 01:21:15,180
All of this kind
of scare mongering

1753
01:21:15,260 --> 01:21:19,100
about harm and risk
and stuff like that

1754
01:21:19,180 --> 01:21:23,260
really is--it'’s based on a kind
of psychological illusion,

1755
01:21:23,340 --> 01:21:27,340
namely that you imagine that you
kind of see the bad state

1756
01:21:27,420 --> 01:21:30,020
as a bad state when it happens,

1757
01:21:30,100 --> 01:21:32,500
whereas in fact,
what more likely happens

1758
01:21:32,580 --> 01:21:35,180
is that you kinda get adjusted
to the various changes

1759
01:21:35,260 --> 01:21:36,660
that are happening
in your environment

1760
01:21:36,740 --> 01:21:38,260
so that when you actually
do reach that state

1761
01:21:38,340 --> 01:21:41,940
we'’re talking about,
it'’ll seem normal.

1762
01:21:42,020 --> 01:21:43,980
And because, look,
when the automobile

1763
01:21:44,060 --> 01:21:46,340
was introduced in
the early 20th century,

1764
01:21:46,420 --> 01:21:48,300
people were saying
this is just gonna pump

1765
01:21:48,380 --> 01:21:50,060
a lot of smoke
into the atmosphere,

1766
01:21:50,140 --> 01:21:51,860
it'’s going to ruin
our contact with nature

1767
01:21:51,940 --> 01:21:53,540
'’cause we'’ll be in
these enclosed vehicles,

1768
01:21:53,620 --> 01:21:54,980
we'’ll be going so fast,

1769
01:21:55,060 --> 01:21:56,660
we won'’t be able
to appreciate things,

1770
01:21:56,740 --> 01:21:58,700
there'’ll be congestion,
blah, blah, blah,

1771
01:21:58,780 --> 01:22:00,580
they were right!

1772
01:22:00,660 --> 01:22:01,860
They were right, but of course,

1773
01:22:01,940 --> 01:22:04,020
by the time you get
to that state

1774
01:22:04,100 --> 01:22:06,140
where the automobile
has had that impact,

1775
01:22:06,220 --> 01:22:07,740
it'’s also had all
this benefit as well,

1776
01:22:07,820 --> 01:22:09,980
and your whole life has been
kind of restructured around it.

1777
01:22:10,060 --> 01:22:12,780
Arguably, people who are using

1778
01:22:12,860 --> 01:22:18,020
or have been conceived
using in vitro fertilization

1779
01:22:18,100 --> 01:22:23,540
are cyborgs way before
they were ever even people.

1780
01:22:23,620 --> 01:22:26,500
Now that doesn'’t mean
that we understand kinship

1781
01:22:26,580 --> 01:22:28,220
in a radically different way.

1782
01:22:28,300 --> 01:22:29,940
Just look at
the Industrial Revolution!

1783
01:22:30,020 --> 01:22:33,260
Is anyone actually--
does anyone actually regret

1784
01:22:33,340 --> 01:22:35,020
that the Industrial Revolution
occurred?

1785
01:22:35,100 --> 01:22:37,300
No, it was fairly
turbulent, right?

1786
01:22:37,380 --> 01:22:40,140
You know, we did actually
have a little bit of strife

1787
01:22:40,220 --> 01:22:42,660
in the translation
from a pre-industrial world

1788
01:22:42,740 --> 01:22:43,980
to the world we know today.

1789
01:22:44,060 --> 01:22:45,940
But the fact is, we adapted.

1790
01:22:46,020 --> 01:22:48,220
The most important thing here
is to try to compare it

1791
01:22:48,300 --> 01:22:49,980
to something in the past.

1792
01:22:50,060 --> 01:22:53,500
Imagine we were--
it was 1914, 100 years back,

1793
01:22:53,580 --> 01:22:55,900
and I told you that
most people on the planet

1794
01:22:55,980 --> 01:22:57,340
would have the ability to have

1795
01:22:57,420 --> 01:22:59,180
this tiny cell phone screen
in front of them

1796
01:22:59,260 --> 01:23:02,020
and video conference with ten
of their friends all at once.

1797
01:23:02,100 --> 01:23:04,700
If it was 1914,
you would look at me and say,

1798
01:23:04,780 --> 01:23:06,620
"That'’s absurd,
this guy'’s insane."

1799
01:23:06,700 --> 01:23:08,940
However, it'’s
the sort of same concept

1800
01:23:09,020 --> 01:23:10,540
when I tell you now in 50 years

1801
01:23:10,620 --> 01:23:12,780
we'’re going to be digital
beings of ourselves,

1802
01:23:12,860 --> 01:23:14,300
it'’s no so far-fetched.

1803
01:23:14,380 --> 01:23:16,300
You have to look at it
in the historical context.

1804
01:23:16,380 --> 01:23:19,260
All concepts of
technological progress

1805
01:23:19,340 --> 01:23:23,300
in that way are linked
to post-enlightenment ideas

1806
01:23:23,380 --> 01:23:25,940
or non--they'’re linked
to the idea

1807
01:23:26,020 --> 01:23:29,020
of the arrow of time
being in free flight forward,

1808
01:23:29,100 --> 01:23:32,900
but they'’re also chiliastic,
they propose an end state.

1809
01:23:32,980 --> 01:23:34,220
They propose the end state,

1810
01:23:34,300 --> 01:23:35,860
and the end state
is the singularity,

1811
01:23:35,940 --> 01:23:38,340
but they propose it
as something desirable.

1812
01:23:38,420 --> 01:23:41,740
Now any kind of philosophy
like that, it'’s, you know,

1813
01:23:41,820 --> 01:23:45,260
jam tomorrow, jam yesterday,
but never jam today.

1814
01:23:45,340 --> 01:23:47,660
They'’re all philosophies
that are about

1815
01:23:47,740 --> 01:23:50,900
accept the shit you'’re in--
work, consume, die--

1816
01:23:50,980 --> 01:23:53,100
because there is something
better in the future,

1817
01:23:53,180 --> 01:23:54,940
or there'’s something
more innovative in the future.

1818
01:23:55,020 --> 01:23:57,260
There are good scenarios
and there are bad scenarios.

1819
01:23:57,340 --> 01:23:58,740
I don'’t know where we'’re headed.

1820
01:23:58,820 --> 01:24:02,020
I mean, I don'’t think
anyone really knows.

1821
01:24:02,100 --> 01:24:03,940
You know, if anyone
claims to know the future,

1822
01:24:04,020 --> 01:24:05,540
they'’re guessing,
they'’re extrapolating forward,

1823
01:24:05,620 --> 01:24:07,060
and we draw
some lines and curves

1824
01:24:07,140 --> 01:24:08,620
and see where
technology'’s gonna be.

1825
01:24:08,700 --> 01:24:10,340
What that means,

1826
01:24:10,420 --> 01:24:11,860
I don'’t think any of us
really understand.

1827
01:24:11,940 --> 01:24:14,580
Everyone assumes that
the future is going to be

1828
01:24:14,660 --> 01:24:16,140
dramatically different
from today

1829
01:24:16,220 --> 01:24:17,540
and that'’s absolutely true,

1830
01:24:17,620 --> 01:24:19,300
but it'’s also true
that the future will be

1831
01:24:19,380 --> 01:24:20,860
an extension of today'’s world.

1832
01:24:20,940 --> 01:24:23,580
The problems
that exist in today'’s world

1833
01:24:23,660 --> 01:24:26,340
are still gonna be
with us in the future.

1834
01:24:26,420 --> 01:24:28,260
Human nature is
not gonna change.

1835
01:24:28,340 --> 01:24:30,940
The end point
in all of this game

1836
01:24:31,020 --> 01:24:33,420
will become a bit of a moral

1837
01:24:33,500 --> 01:24:36,860
and an ethical question
for society

1838
01:24:36,940 --> 01:24:40,060
where decisions
will have to be made.

1839
01:24:40,140 --> 01:24:43,940
Like life itself, work
and death, for better or worse,

1840
01:24:44,020 --> 01:24:46,060
are two features
of the human experience

1841
01:24:46,140 --> 01:24:48,060
that are thrust upon us.

1842
01:24:49,420 --> 01:24:51,660
Whether or not
we define work and death

1843
01:24:51,740 --> 01:24:53,900
as problems in need of remedy,

1844
01:24:53,980 --> 01:24:57,580
human ingenuity is a progressive
and natural extension

1845
01:24:57,660 --> 01:24:59,500
of our own evolution.

1846
01:25:07,060 --> 01:25:10,020
Advancing our technological
capabilities is a way

1847
01:25:10,100 --> 01:25:13,380
of dealing with our limitations
as human beings.

1848
01:25:15,060 --> 01:25:16,540
Must we do something

1849
01:25:16,620 --> 01:25:19,100
just because we'’re capable
of doing something?

1850
01:25:19,180 --> 01:25:21,180
Or can we withhold
our hands and say

1851
01:25:21,260 --> 01:25:23,620
"No, this is not
a good thing to do"?

1852
01:25:23,700 --> 01:25:26,540
This is something
that the human species

1853
01:25:26,620 --> 01:25:28,220
must decide for itself.

1854
01:25:28,300 --> 01:25:30,860
You and I, we can'’t just
leave it to the scientists.

1855
01:25:30,940 --> 01:25:33,020
We have to know
what'’s going on and why!